General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

"hefty investment" = $25 billion?

They are still targeting 3 million EV production by 2025. They will not have a Gigafactory until then, at the earliest, if ever.

25b is a great start and a hefty investment for an established company to make into a new product in one go. This means they are serious. Just because they didn't go ev in one go doesn't mean they won't keep moving in that direction.

 

[30seconds]

That's funny. Of all the time I spend on this board I remember the arguments as "traditional manufacturers are going to need to spend Billions to get supply and it going to take them years to get it." Pretty much the VW investment says exactly this, and it is something they should have done years ago.

 

[RobStark]

Reading elsewhere, VW is spending 20B Euro on purchasing cells for PEVs in Europe and China.

Nothing yet on North America.

If these deals are for 7 years it is a very big deal.

If it is over 20 years it means no more than getting enough cells to meet Chinese New Energy Vehicles compliance percentages plus a decent but not huge number of PEVs in Europe.

My guess is on the former.

 

[AudubonB]

I have sold NVDA. Full discussion in the "Other tech stock" pages.

 

[Intl Professor]

We also need solar-powered ships. I think those could become feasible before aircraft.

We used to lead in this internationally with Clipper ships.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think the argument of Amazon hurting Tesla can come from the fact that Amazon will ship stuff right to your house, and you won't need to leave your house to buy stuff. And so less cars will be used.

Have you driven a Tesla? They make you want to drive. Plenty of people on this forum have said such things as; before my Tesla I just thought of cars as a way to get from point A to point B, I find myself looking for excuses to drive my Tesla, I want a camper mode so I can sleep in my Tesla, I've already put X number of miles on my Tesla in 6 months; more than I did the last 3 years driving my ICE, look at pictures of my garage (all done up with logo, paint etc...). The 3 from what I've experienced and what many others have said, takes driving to a whole other level of fun. It's a weak argument, perhaps from the agoraphobia crowd.

 

[Intl Professor]

We have had solar-powered ships, very very efficient ones, for a very very long time. 'Course, we call them by another term but wind is just one force removed from their solar-derived energy. And as Old Zeb said, according to Gordon Bok: At least for me, the wind is free, and they haven't run out yetView attachment 286208

Sorry, didn't read this before I stepped on your toes. Sails with direct recharging of batteries by running screws backwards as turbines might help.

 

[Ovulation]

I think the argument of Amazon hurting Tesla can come from the fact that Amazon will ship stuff right to your house, and you won't need to leave your house to buy stuff. And so less cars will be used.

Well if Tesla makes their self-driving Trucks real (like they claim), Amazon might buy Tesla, with self-driving cars you free also up a lot of time to binge-watch series ^^

 

[Waiting4M3]

I think the argument of Amazon hurting Tesla can come from the fact that Amazon will ship stuff right to your house, and you won't need to leave your house to buy stuff. And so less cars will be used.

What do you mean "will"? Hasn't Amazon been doing that for decades now?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Reading elsewhere, VW is spending 20B Euro on purchasing cells for PEVs in Europe and China.

Nothing yet on North America.

If these deals are for 7 years it is a very big deal.

If it is over 20 years it means no more than getting enough cells to meet Chinese New Energy Vehicles compliance percentages plus a decent but not huge number of PEVs in Europe.

My guess is on the former.

VW keeping focus on PEV that evolves on ICE powertrain (their past core competency), while outsourcing battery, IMO is similar to IBM building PC hardware and outsourcing OS to Microsoft. They will come to regret that choice soon.

 

[Dennisj00]

The only advantage I see that VW, GM, and other conventional ICE OEMs have in their EV progress is they won’t have the floodlights and microscopes analyzing their every move from the ones that want them to fail.

Like stupid fud headlines “Four days of downtime in February could make or break Tesla”.

 

[schonelucht]

Reading elsewhere, VW is spending 20B Euro on purchasing cells for PEVs in Europe and China.

Nothing yet on North America.

If these deals are for 7 years it is a very big deal.

They are. From the Volkswagen annual report (copy paste is disabled on the PDF I have so all typos here are mine)

To cover this enormous demand, we are inviting tenders for long term strategic parnerships in China, Europe and the USA with a global order volume of more than 50B EUR in the period to 2025.

For those who hold their nose because 'it's not investement it's just purchase agreements'

We are therefore planning to invest more than 20B EUR in industrializing e-mobility by 2030, involving, amongst other things, the development of two new electric platforms for vehicles with a range of up to 600km. Examples include the Volkswagen ID family of concept vehicles, the Audi e-tron and Porsche's Mission E

And if you think Volkswagen is not involved in R&D or not interested in intellectual property on battery development

Developing battery technology as a core competency has also been defined as a strategic initiative of the Volkswagen Group. .... We have already pooled our in-house expertise in battery cells in a Center of Excellence and also plan to accelerate the development of expertise and technological change through intelligent partnerships

It's clear the Volkswagen group is going ahead with EVs, it's a serious player and is commiting serious resources. I am not taking Tesla's lead in battery a few years from now for granted anymore.

 

[Waiting4M3]

They are. From the Volkswagen annual report (copy paste is disabled on the PDF I have so all typos here are mine)



For those who hold their nose because 'it's not investement it's just purchase agreements'



And if you think Volkswagen is not involved in R&D or not interested in intellectual property on battery development



It's clear the Volkswagen group is going ahead with EVs, it's a serious player and is commiting serious resources. I am not taking Tesla's lead in battery a few years from now for granted anymore.

Is there any specific mention of how many $B they will spend in the next 2 years to ramp ID-family EVs? Like how Tesla told everyone how much $ they plan to spend in 2017 to ramp M3?

 

[avoigt]

It's clear the Volkswagen group is going ahead with EVs, it's a serious player and is commiting serious resources. I am not taking Tesla's lead in battery a few years from now for granted anymore.[/QUOTE]

Just to be clear I am delighted to see that VW is investing in EVs and wish them to succeed.

However I believe to conclude that if a large ICE producer is investing serious money into EVs he will be a large player in that industry in the future is in my view questionable. (no offense)

Just doing a comparison of the e-Golf versus Model S,X and 3 or based on the amount of money VW announced to invest or based on their experience with EVs I am not convinced that they will turn that tanker around quickly.

Time will tell but announcements are just cheap words and I am still waiting for a first decent VW EV that I can touch. Once that car is release and in production I am happy to have that discussion again.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Just to be clear I am delighted to see that VW is investing in EVs and wish them to succeed.

However I believe to conclude that if a large ICE producer is investing serious money into EVs he will be a large player in that industry in the future is in my view questionable. (no offense)

Just doing a comparison of the e-Golf versus Model S,X and 3 or based on the amount of money VW announced to invest or based on their experience with EVs I am not convinced that they will turn that tanker around quickly.

Time will tell but announcements are just cheap words and I am still waiting for a first decent VW EV that I can touch. Once that car is release and in production I am happy to have that discussion again.

I think we should all be happy if VW does indeed take EV seriously. As Elon said best:

 

[schonelucht]

However I believe to conclude that if a large ICE producer is investing serious money into EVs he will be a large player in that industry in the future is in my view questionable. (no offense)

No offence either but you turn my point around. I did not say they will be. I said I don't take Tesla's lead for granted anymore, as we could safely do the previous years. There is a key difference.

 

[Reciprocity]

It's clear the Volkswagen group is going ahead with EVs, it's a serious player and is commiting serious resources. I am not taking Tesla's lead in battery a few years from now for granted anymore.

Just to be clear I am delighted to see that VW is investing in EVs and wish them to succeed.

However I believe to conclude that if a large ICE producer is investing serious money into EVs he will be a large player in that industry in the future is in my view questionable. (no offense)

Just doing a comparison of the e-Golf versus Model S,X and 3 or based on the amount of money VW announced to invest or based on their experience with EVs I am not convinced that they will turn that tanker around quickly.

Time will tell but announcements are just cheap words and I am still waiting for a first decent VW EV that I can touch. Once that car is release and in production I am happy to have that discussion again.

Agreed competition is the best thing that can happen for consumers. I have zero doubt that Tesla will rise to the occasion. What makes people think that VW spending billions will all the suddenly make them super innovative. These companies are capable, but they lack the will. Tesla has a way of making competitors up their game, we shall see.

 

[Starno]

What do you mean "will"? Hasn't Amazon been doing that for decades now?

They have, but they're about to do it competitively and efficiently, and for everything. Basically until now (and probably still for a few more years), it was still more expensive to use Amazon than to go to Walmart or a mall. And you can't find everything to be shipped in less than 24 hours.
That's about to change.



What in the World Is Causing the Retail Meltdown of 2017?

Retail apocalypse - Wikipedia

America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

 

[immunogold]

VW just made clear that they have no competence in batteries and even decided to lower spending in Development so they don't intend to build that competence in difference for instance to BMW. Tesla has likely the largest Battery development center in house globally testing and investing in every aspect and continue to find ways and technology to make the next improvement work.

So, yes on paper it looks like both outsource to Batterie producers but looking into details you realize that Tesla is the driving force in designing the Batterie technology as well as keeping the Batterie pack production in house.

IOW there is a large difference in how Tesla and VW approach the technology development and innovation. VW does consider the Batterie technology as not strategic and not as a IP they need to own as they do with the ICE drive train. Since years German automakers are stating that the Batterie technology is for every producer globally the same which is just not the reality.

If it is like that what they claim why haven't I see yet a VW EV with low price and range of 500km yet?

Just imagine a large European ICE producer is telling you the drive train of the vehicle is not their core competence and the will supply them from Asia. What kind of car would you expect from them?

"Development spending
Even with its push to ramp up electric-car production and avoid penalties from tighter environmental regulations, Volkswagen plans to rein in expenditures. Development spending declined 3.9% to about $16 billion in 2017, equivalent to 6.7% of sales. The company reiterated a target to lower that to 6% by 2020."

Volkswagen pours $25 billion into electric-car batteries, challenging Tesla

"Manufacturing the powerpacks themselves is not in the cards. “This is not one of our core competencies,” said Mueller, who has faced pressure from employee representatives to invest in battery-cell production. “Others can do it better than we can.”"

This! I agree with Avoigt, and strongly disagree with recent posts equating Tesla’s Panasonic relationship with VW’s relationship to its newly contracted battery suppliers.

Battery tech is a core competency for Tesla (it is NOT so for VW).

Tesla has focused on battery manufacture, battery chemistry, battery thermal management, etc since its early days. Members in this forum have posted links to videos in which university experts in battery chemistry partnered with Tesla in refining the cells that Tesla has chosen to create with Panasonic, and which Panasonic manufactures to Tesla’s specs.
One such video:

By some eastimates, Tesla may itself be a world leader in battery technology (if not THE world leader in lithium ion battery tech).
Andrea James, the former Wall Street Anslyst, referred to JB Straubel as ‘the world’s leading battery expert’ (approximate quote) in this interview with Dave T:

The following quote illustrates that Tesla is NOT, as some have posited on this thread today ‘just a purchaser of Panasonic cells’:
“The high performance cylindrical ‘2170 cell’ was jointly designed and engineered by Tesla and Panasonic to offer the best performance at the lowest production cost in an optimal form factor for both electric vehicles and energy products.” Battery Cell Production Begins at the Gigafactory

It would be a major error to underestimate Tesla’s involvement in the design of its battery technology. Tesla may be leading a disruption in battery technology (in partnership with Panasonic) just as Tesla may be leading a disruption of automobile manufacturing through its design of automation (in conjunction with its internal expertise at Grohmann and Perbix).

 

[DurandalAI]

Until I see my local dealerships out here in BFE carrying BEVs, I won’t take any of the competition seriously. There is a single dealership in this area that has anything and it’s a combo Honda/Chevy place that has a single Chevy Bolt and a single Honda Clarity PHEV.