General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[DragonWatch]

Sorry, this is a joke. Elon was right, we will all understand why solar City was not an optional purchase. It was going to failed along with the value they had built and Tesla would have had to start over with solar products. The solar roof is one, but the other will become more clear once the semi is out. Each company that buys multiple semis will need many many panels and batteries to keep costs down below 7c/KWh. There is only one way. Solar. Maybe some wind, but mostly solar. Maybe if your distribution hub is next to a dam, but really mostly solar. Lots and lots of solar and batteries. Loads and loads of batteries.

To put this into context, 100,000 semis are equivalent to 3.4 million model 3s. And you can't charge a semi at home. But companies will need to and will mostly charge these trucks where they load and unload them. Mega chargers on the freeway will also need solar and batteries to keep costs down.

To win this case, all Tesla has to do is show a plan. It's not a bail out if the acquisition of solar City is a critical part of a real plan. I think Tesla can make a very compelling case for why they needed solar City. Tesla requires the economies of scale provided by gf2 to make it all work. Without that massive scale and with new solar tariffs, getting panels in the volumes, quantity and quality that they required would not be possible. This would have jeopardized supercharging and megachargers.

Edit: to be clear. Breach of fiduciary duty is very hard to prove. The problem is that all Elon has to prove is that he had the best interests of the stock holders in mind. He doesn't have to be successful with the acquisition. It's not a measure of competence only intent. As long as he can prove the intent was something other than a handout to his cousins, then nothing else really matters.

Thanks for the informative reply. It will be helpful thinking forward ~ should that make sense.

My original thought, though not clear, was I did not get notified that some share holders (whom ever they are) were suing. The case may have been in the media at some point, but again I left it in the dust somewhere.

I like your response better, thanks

 

[SteveG3]

perhaps I missed this already being shared in our investment section, but, from a local news report two days ago which I just saw was posted on Reddit a few hours ago (link at end of post to news report),

Walter Huang, was the man who died in the Model X crash under investigation. He had a wife and young children.

Walter's brother Will says that Walter had taken the car to Tesla complaining of multiple times that autopilot had swiveled toward the exact same barrier that the Model X hit. A member of the NTSB indicated that CHP received an invoice from the family regarding the prior swerving incidents. In a statement to the local news station, Tesla says "We cannot find anything suggesting that the customer ever complained to Tesla about the performance of autopilot..."

Will also says that had the "crash attenuator," presumably destroyed but not replaced from a prior accident, been there at the time of his brother's accident, based on videos he's seen of similar collisions, his brother would have walked away from the accident.

The local news program also reported that the NTSB had recovered both the vehicle's restraint control module and infotainment module on Monday.

I-TEAM EXCLUSIVE: Victim who died in Tesla crash had complained about auto-pilot

 

[CaliBear1]

perhaps I missed this already being shared in our investment section, but, from a local news report two days ago which I just posted on Reddit a few hours ago (link below),

Walter Huang, was the man who died in the Model X crash under investigation. He had a wife and young children.

Walter's brother Will says that Walter had taken the car to Tesla complaining of multiple times that autopilot had swiveled toward the exact same barrier that the Model X hit. A member of the NTSB indicated that CHP received an invoice from the family regarding the prior swerving incidents. Tesla says they have no records of such a complaint.

Will also says that had the "crash attenuator," presumably destroyed but not replaced from a prior accident, been there at the time of his brother's accident, based on videos he's seen of similar collisions, his brother would have walked away from the accident.

The local news program also reported that the NTSB had recovered both the vehicle's restraint control module and infotainment module on Monday.

I-TEAM EXCLUSIVE: Victim who died in Tesla crash had complained about auto-pilot

My condolences to the grieving family and RIP Mr. Huang. But, that story has a lot of inconsistencies and the family's comments strike me as lawyer-guided positioning for the inevitable lawsuits to come.

 

[Krugerrand]

It doesn’t sound as crazy when you think about it as humans trying to earn a living wage. If the world did a better job of providing assistance while efficiently retraining affected individuals for modern jobs, these people would not have to “brainstorm ideas for intentionally complicating EV production.” They are simply trying to survive, keep a roof over their family’s heads, and put food on the table. Those who rated the above related posts “funny” are disconnected from this global reality.

If the world...? How about if INDIVIDUALS affected by industry changes took responsibility for getting themselves retrained? What a novel idea to make oneself invaluable. Because better to lie, cheat or sit around waiting for someone to hold your hand.

 

[Sparky]

Good grief, what a crappy couple of weeks. Got 4 separate emails with stop-loss circuit breakers popping from $335 on down. 80% of my trading shares cashed. My plan is/was to sit it out for a couple weeks at least. Let the dust settle from the upcoming CC and then start accumulating shares slowly.
Today I had to drive up to NorCal; 340 miles, mostly up I-5. Took the Model 3. Used the just OTA-updated EAP to drive 50 miles of curvy Grapevine. Flawless.
I make this drive a lot. Passed the time like anyone does on these long drives at the end of the quarter; counting Tesla car carriers.
My previous end of Q best was 4 trucks over one 200 mile stretch where it's easy to see the N->S flow.
Then I look for S/X ratios and what colors are most popular.
On this drive; 12 trucks! 4 were just Model 3s. One was just S/X and the rest were mixed with about half the count going to Mod 3, then a lot of S's and maybe 20% X's.
The cars are coming.
Oh, and the drive: scooting along the 5 with left-lane traffic and stopped once for a 20 min charge and a nitro cold-brew coffee from the barista at Kettleman Tesla lounge. Japanese film crew wanted to interview me about the 3.
The car's EV range and features are unparalleled.
There are no Model 3 killers on the horizon IMO.
Now I'm sitting on the sidelines with all this cash and re-thinking the "sit it out" plan. Dunno what I'm going to decide.
All my evidence today is anecdotal and subject to confirmation bias, but yeah. Bias confirmed.

 

[Krugerrand]

Ok, this issue is so important to the world, but I don't want to get too off-topic in this forum, so this is my last short post on this.

When as Americans we think of phrases like "saving the world" and "communicating to the government," I think we may be missing the point. While we enjoy many privileges, and even though most of us don't see them as privileges, the global reality is that, in many parts of the world, there are people who have to provide for their families for a full year with less than what many of us spend on private club memberships. Think about that disconnect for a moment.

View attachment 289563

For one minute, put yourself in this guy's inescapable reality.

Are you thinking about saving the world or communicating to the government?

I don’t have any private club membership and still missing your point. What does the fellow under the apple cart have to do with VW et al poisoning all of us on purpose, or the media dragging Tesla through the dirt trying to destroy one of the few companies that’s trying to help you, me, the fellow under the cart and future generations?

 

[Electrifying]

My condolences to the grieving family and RIP Mr. Huang. But, that story has a lot of inconsistencies and the family's comments strike me as lawyer-guided positioning for the inevitable lawsuits to come.

Agreed, " complaining of multiple times that autopilot had swiveled toward the exact same barrier"? Why would a normal person still turn on AutoPilot if the car had tried to kill him many times before with it? Tin foil hat on: Shorts might have sent a "lawyer" to his family to represent them free of charge.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Agreed, " complaining of multiple times that autopilot had swiveled toward the exact same barrier"? Why would a normal person still turn on AutoPilot if the car had tried to kill him many times before with it? Tin foil hat on: Shorts might have sent a "lawyer" to his family to represent them free of charge.

I think we should all stay calm and let all the facts come out before accusing anyone of anything. If there was lawyer coaching behind his brother's comments, I think his brother probably wouldn't have said that a non-defective "crash attenuator" would have saved him.

 

[CaliBear1]

I think we should all stay calm and let all the facts come out before accusing anyone of anything. If there was lawyer coaching behind his brother's comments, I think his brother probably wouldn't have said that a non-defective "crash attenuator" would have saved him.

Not true. The state and Caltrans will also be a named defendant in such a lawsuit.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Can other investors counter sue those who are suing the company over the SCTY merger for wasting company funds/resources over this BS?

Maybe we can all co-sign some kind of Amicus Curiae ("friend of the court") to show support.

Though seeing as how the investors as a whole voted FOR the merger, the fact it even gets to go to court is bananas.

 

[mmd]

Howdy Fellas! Didn't realize it will fall so fast so much. Almost out of all ammo to cover my shorts. Covered too soon on the way down.

I'm now praying for Elon to pull at least one more rabbit, give me one more ride.
I'm with you now. I hope wealthy Tesla owners step in to give me one more pop.
Elon, move those inventories NOW for a gigantic quarter!

Peace. Yours trolly.

 

[Reciprocity]

This was a bailout by Elon for family members, that might be the key reason the company goes under. Any Tesla long should be appalled.The dept load that this commodity business imposed, is crushing them. Bad move for Tesla, this lawsuit has merit.

Having debt doesn't make you go out of business. It's business 101. It's lack of cash. Tesla does not have a cash problem and solar City had consistently contributed positively to cash flow. And it will contribute more in the future with $50,000 solor roofs that are paid in full by the consumer that takes out a loan. So no debt for solar products going forward.

If you think no one will give Tesla cash if they need it then you are not being objective. What's growing faster, tradition autos sales or EVs? Growth pays. People search out growth to invest in. Tesla is not losing money on every car, they proved that when they showed a profit in a quarter. They are currently cash flow negative because they are quadrupling revenue generating capacity in extremely short order. You can't possibly increase revenues without increasing capacity. If the products had no demand, I would be worried, but demand is off the charts.

Some simple math.. at 2k model 3s, Tesla doubled their out out. At 4k/w Tesla triples their out put. At one point the marginal cost of a model Sc was rumored to be like $30,000. If that's true, then the marginal cost for model 3 should be over 20% less due to cheaper materials, simpler design and smaller size. If Tesla wanted to be profitable tomorrow, they could. But at the cost of massive growth.

Tesla is not going bankrupt, that is a joke. Barring a Black swan event.

 

[Reciprocity]

Thanks for the informative reply. It will be helpful thinking forward ~ should that make sense.

My original thought, though not clear, was I did not get notified that some share holders (whom ever they are) were suing. The case may have been in the media at some point, but again I left it in the dust somewhere.

I like your response better, thanks

Shorts are suing because the company didn't go bankrupt when they said it would.

 

[Richgoogol]

Tesla returned to German subsidies list, ending row

 

[schonelucht]

It's not a bail out if the acquisition of solar City is a critical part of a real plan.

Except that owning a solar company is not critical, even if you buy into your reasoning that the semi can only be a succes in combination with buyer owned solar (for the record, I don't buy this at all, the semi can win without solar too) There are many other manufacturers that potential buyers can turn to without losing anything. No company is going to put a solar roof on their manufacturing buildings (less efficient, easthetics are not a concern anyway, even Tesla is putting panels on the GF). Besides, solar roof only came into being after the merger was already executed. So no, SolarCity is not a critical part of a plan to bring semis to the market.

The purchase was a bailout. Simple as that.

The best case to make as to why the bailout was necesseary is because it would have tarnished the Elon Musk brand. Given the overwhelming support his latest pack package got (much more costly than the SC bailout), shareholders agree.

 

[landis]

shareholders agree.

No doubt some do, but not this one. ;-)

 

[elasalle]

No Norway stats for today?(till now) .. just some glitch on web page or did the transportation issues catch up last 1/2 days of quarter or Easter holidays started early? Tesla Registration Stats

 

[Reciprocity]

Except that owning a solar company is not critical, even if you buy into your reasoning that the semi can only be a succes in combination with buyer owned solar (for the record, I don't buy this at all, the semi can win without solar too) There are many other manufacturers that potential buyers can turn to without losing anything. No company is going to put a solar roof on their manufacturing buildings (less efficient, easthetics are not a concern anyway, even Tesla is putting panels on the GF). Besides, solar roof only came into being after the merger was already executed. So no, SolarCity is not a critical part of a plan to bring semis to the market.

The purchase was a bailout. Simple as that.

The best case to make as to why the bailout was necesseary is because it would have tarnished the Elon Musk brand. Given the overwhelming support his latest pack package got (much more costly than the SC bailout), shareholders agree.

How do you make solar roof tiles without a manufacturing plant? I'm confused. Remember, anything can be reverse engineered, but you can't reverse engineer the mass production and automation used to manufacture the product. Tesla was always going to be in bed with solar City. So when solar City's business model broke down, Tesla had no choice. They were already partnered with solar City.

Panasonic makes some of the most efficient and longest lasting panels. Cheap panels have 10-15 year warranty while Panasonic's 330w have 25 and should generate 70%+ for 30 years. Athletics matter in some cases but today numbers matter to everyone.

Also you can't import cells anymore without tariffs. So who was Tesla going to work with in the US?

 

[elasalle]

How do you make solar roof tiles without a manufacturing plant? I'm confused. Remember, anything can be reverse engineered, but you can't reverse engineer the mass production and automation used to manufacture the product. Tesla was always going to be in bed with solar City. So when solar City's business model broke down, Tesla had no choice. They were already partnered with solar City.

Panasonic makes some of the most efficient and longest lasting panels. Cheap panels have 10-15 year warranty while Panasonic's 330w have 25 and should generate 70%+ for 30 years. Athletics matter in some cases but today numbers matter to everyone.

Also you can't import cells anymore without tariffs. So who was Tesla going to work with in the US?

No SolarCity Bailout, Long term vision. (Master Plan 1 & 2):
Energy Generation, Energy Storage, Energy Utilization
As simple as that.

 

[ZeApelido]

[speculation] Not good. Walter Huang worked for Apple, meaning he would have intended to stay in the left-most auxiliary lane which exits to highway 85. The theory of a last minute swerve to stay on 101 seems less likely now.