ValueAnalyst
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500 to 1,000 too low. It's trailing the actual rate big time.
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500 to 1,000 too low. It's trailing the actual rate big time.
They're currently facing a liquidity crisis and losing money on every Model 3 they make (see negative gross margin).
If Elon is smart, he will slash production until they can figure out how to make the car profitably.
K_Dizzle
Member
Read up on economies of scale. The only way production is profitable is in here th volume. That why we haven’t had a new car maker in the states in over 100. Outside of Tesla of course
Matt, be careful, there are many people out there pumping out misinformation about Tesla at 100 mph at the top of their lungs. It looks like you have been duped by some of this misinformation.
Tesla is not facing a liquidity crisis. They entered 2018 with about $3.4 billion in cash. Low Model 3 production in Q1 may mean this dips to about $2.4 billion, but, Q2 is likely when the tide turns, if not, then Q3. Their next big amount of debt coming due is in March... of 2019! about $300 million will come due before then, but on the scale of $2-3 billion cash on hand, that is not a big deal.
Just didn't want to see anyone duped by misinformation. MattEnth, key is that we all learn to think for ourselves, I'm sure you can do better than you ever imagined doing that! Really mean that!
Generally, the big hurdle for "economies of scale" effects is getting one big factory pumping out cars (instead of building them by hand or only having 1 production line). Another might be having two factories across the world to cut down transportation costs.
Tesla has both. They're already way up the economies of scale curve. More scale won't heal the gap.
If any of the reports about remanufacturing or warranty maintenance or refused deliveries are correct, I imagine those are the real problem points that are dragging down gross margin. It could also be more mundane things like Cobalt prices.
Maybe you mean "the learning curve"? I'll admit that things get cheaper as a company learns and gets better... But man, Tesla's learnings are pretty expensive each round.
Too late for that. TSLA has $10B in long-term debt, much of it fixed assets. Accounts Payable (existing vendors/suppliers) is also getting squeezed. That can't be repaid by slashing production.
Purchased some 1/20 300 calls for $56.25. Could go down further but very happy with that price. My goal is to not look at my account for 2 years. I'll either be broke or rich. If rich, I'll retire early. If broke, then I'll keep working at my day job for 20 more years. It a chance I'm willing to take. Good luck to all of you!
Well, Ameritrade just screwed me. I'm a Scottrade carryover and apparently the banking information did not transfer when they transferred my account. So I set up my banking information for this excellent buying opportunity and now have to wait two-days for my account to be verified. Crossing my fingers that the dips last a few more days.
Yeah, I almost had the same hit--turned out saving me by getting me shares at $252 rather than $300.
I also noticed that while their stock commission is the same as Scottrade's was, Mutual Funds are $49.99 (!) rather than Scottrade's old $17.Pulling from market action.
Could you provide the link the 2.7Billion agreement? I've found others, but not that one.
Is all Panasonic 2170 production at GF1? If so, could Tesla cover overhead and Panasonic reduce raw materials purchasing to adjust volume?
Could you provide the link the 2.7Billion agreement? I've found others, but not that one.
Is all Panasonic 2170 production at GF1? If so, could Tesla cover overhead and Panasonic reduce raw materials purchasing to adjust volume?
Yeah, I almost had the same hit--turned out saving me by getting me shares at $252 rather than $300.
I wish my extra funds had not made it through last week...
Yeah, I almost had the same hit--turned out saving me by getting me shares at $252 rather than $300.
I will gladly take a $200 buy in
. I'm usually not that lucky of a person though....You seem like an earnest Short. I'm glad to see you here, instead of those fake care bears.
But to that, I really wonder if you're following the right analysts. Instead of taking their conclusions (and analysis) at face value, try this:
- add up all the money they got from their funding rounds, including ZEV credits,
- deduct all the quarterly losses reported since 2012
- is that more or less than what they have in cash? Does that still support the negative margins short thesis?
Anyway, this whole situation reminds me of the Sep '13 battery fires, and Dec '16 solar city merger scare. Be ready to cover or all your gains will be lost.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Could just look at $28B asset vs $15B debt. If they've been losing money how could they accumulate more asset than debt?
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It's in the latest annual report. Search for 'purchase obligations'. Not all Panasonic production is at GF1. 18650 is still from Japan. Purchase agreements for raw materials are (most likely based on executive travel) a shared responsibility for Tesla and Panasonic. Mines have a strong bargaining position (see price movements of relevant materials). It's almost a given that they too asked for minimum purchase obligations from the Panasonic/Tesla duo. How much and under what conditions is uncertain. But you can't just show up at a mine and ask to reduce/increase raw material production on a whim like that.
dc_h
Active Member
The point is that Tesla will buy as many batteries as Panasonic can help them make. If Panasonic wants to make Tesla pay for batteries they can’t make, I’m sure Elon will show them the door. I like schonelucht, he’s pragmatic and cynical but he’s gotten hung up on this before. If Panasonic cloudless make 37GW of batteries we’d be seeing over 5000 Model 3s a week by now. They’ve been the darn bottleneck. This is ridiculous.
Could not believe the price and I had to do something...sold whatever I had non-tsla and converted them to 8 2020 leaps at strike 250 for about $76. The time value is about $65 and I will make them back by selling weekly calls. Solid 4/6 275 for $5.8.
The strategy will only fail if price continue to drip big which I believe is unlikely. If the price stays about the same then I should be able to sell $3-$4 weekly each week and be able to earn back the time value in 3 - 4 months.
The strategy will only fail if price continue to drip big which I believe is unlikely. If the price stays about the same then I should be able to sell $3-$4 weekly each week and be able to earn back the time value in 3 - 4 months.
bdy0627
Active Member
Some fun facts to lighten up the mood:
At -27.4%, this is the 2nd largest dip for TSLA in the last 3 years. This dip is similar to some of the bigger dips TSLA has gone through in the past. Will the recovery be as well? After the largest dip of -42%, despite shorts' proclamations, TSLA did not end up going broke and instead climbed 69%. After the 3rd largest dip of -25%, TSLA again did not go broke but instead climbed 30%. Shorts are certain it is going to be different this time. They will do everything they can to keep it from climbing, just as they have in the past. Will that be enough this time to keep TSLA from climbing again? We will see soon enough.
At -27.4%, this is the 2nd largest dip for TSLA in the last 3 years. This dip is similar to some of the bigger dips TSLA has gone through in the past. Will the recovery be as well? After the largest dip of -42%, despite shorts' proclamations, TSLA did not end up going broke and instead climbed 69%. After the 3rd largest dip of -25%, TSLA again did not go broke but instead climbed 30%. Shorts are certain it is going to be different this time. They will do everything they can to keep it from climbing, just as they have in the past. Will that be enough this time to keep TSLA from climbing again? We will see soon enough.
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