General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Starno]

First and foremost, they're "incentivized" to attract eyeballs. Put "Tesla" in your headline and you attract lots and lots of eyeballs. That keeps the doors open. They could run a FUDster selling doom (and hoping to short) or a devoted fan selling unicorn farts. I don't think it much matters to most of them so long as the clicks cascade in.
Robin

That's true, but that's not the only thing.

There is a reason some medias talk bad about Trump and some other medias talk good about Trump. Even though talking bad about Trump attracts way more eyeballs.

" Mainstream media CEOs " are friends with people whom Elon companies are threatening their status quo.

 

[GreyHair]

The real competition (US March sales)

Bark M. Sméagol on Twitter

View attachment 292790

l
Save this. It will be the last month that Model 3 is not the leader by a growing margin. Can you say goodbye Mercedes C class? I drove one when I took my Tesla in for annual service. It was literally a piece of crap compared to Tesla cars.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Please do not put words in my mouth. I’m simply asking those who blindly write off 5k/w by end-May as impossible to explain the contradictory data point, which was all too closely watched until very recently.

Hey, are you the same ValueAnalyst that almost took my head off when I suggested Tesla won't be able to do 100K+ (as you predicted) by the end of the 2017?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Now they're just messing with us

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

 

[SolarIsIt]

Hey, are you the same ValueAnalyst that almost took my head off when I suggested Tesla won't be able to do 100K+ (as you predicted) by the end of the 2017?

Zhelko is right. I am waiting for $35K Model 3 and follow this thread.

Sorry if this sounds like a conspiracy theory: Is ValueAnalyst is a plant from shorts? Drive up needless optimism and set it up for shorts? How can an "Analyst" be so constantly bad at guessing ramp, volumes, projections, and everything else? I guess 90% of the posters here guess better than ValueAnalyst.
Most of us know Elon time and to expect something less. But, ValueAnalyst comes up with more rosy stuff.

 

[colettimj]

l
Save this. It will be the last month that Model 3 is not the leader by a growing margin. Can you say goodbye Mercedes C class? I drove one when I took my Tesla in for annual service. It was literally a piece of crap compared to Tesla cars.

Right now the impact it's only a subset of the 3 reservation holders that deferred a purchase of one of those vehicles. I think the biggest change in numbers will be when Tesla catches up to demand and can deliver a 3 within a month or so of ordering and even has display models for impulse buys.

 

[avoigt]

Now they're just messing with us

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

View attachment 292854

Well, if they are as predicted on the path to 5k/w and AWD should be available right after than it’s about time to get them tested. Do we know if this VINs include AWD or even P? Is that recognizable?

This options will have low cost and high profit included so that’s desirable to get faster to the optimal mix they talked about.

Also I predict a high demand for AWD in Europe beside Canada and other countries who are challenges by long hard winters and mountains. Almost all aspects of the driving experience as well as performance and security will be even better and I would not be surprised if efficiency is going to be increase as well.

 

[mongo]

Well, if they are as predicted on the path to 5k/w and AWD should be available right after than it’s about time to get them tested. Do we know if this VINs include AWD or even P? Is that recognizable?

This options will have low cost and high profit included so that’s desirable to get faster to the optimal mix they talked about.

Also I predict a high demand for AWD in Europe beside Canada and other countries who are challenges by long hard winters and mountains. Almost all aspects of the driving experience as well as performance and security will be even better and I would not be surprised if efficiency is going to be increase as well.

AWD has a different motor code (digit 8). However, I don't know that there is any reason Tesla could not update their database retroactively to turn an RWD to AWD (similar to the 17/18 VIN check digit fix).

 

[Waiting4M3]

Well, if they are as predicted on the path to 5k/w and AWD should be available right after than it’s about time to get them tested. Do we know if this VINs include AWD or even P? Is that recognizable?

This options will have low cost and high profit included so that’s desirable to get faster to the optimal mix they talked about.

Also I predict a high demand for AWD in Europe beside Canada and other countries who are challenges by long hard winters and mountains. Almost all aspects of the driving experience as well as performance and security will be even better and I would not be surprised if efficiency is going to be increase as well.

Model 3 VINs always checks for AWD VINs when he sees a new batch, if the tweet doesn't mention it, assume they are RWD.

and confirmed RWD

 

[dc_h]

l
Save this. It will be the last month that Model 3 is not the leader by a growing margin. Can you say goodbye Mercedes C class? I drove one when I took my Tesla in for annual service. It was literally a piece of crap compared to Tesla cars.

Literally?

 

[avoigt]

Zhelko is right. I am waiting for $35K Model 3 and follow this thread.

Sorry if this sounds like a conspiracy theory: Is ValueAnalyst is a plant from shorts? Drive up needless optimism and set it up for shorts? How can an "Analyst" be so constantly bad at guessing ramp, volumes, projections, and everything else? I guess 90% of the posters here guess better than ValueAnalyst.
Most of us know Elon time and to expect something less. But, ValueAnalyst comes up with more rosy stuff.

VA just pointed out a Szenario where Tesla achieves the 5 k/ w goal 4 weeks earlier which may sound bold for most of the critics here. Some people can’t imagine this simply because they are used to the Elon time paradigm but asking me there are a couple of good reasons why that over promising and under delivering may end very soon.

Elon makes a plan for everything and if he wants to get to his compensation he has to change. People may believe he just continues with business as usual but I believe he has layed out a plan already and even before the company who designed the company plan has been hired, to be able to surprise the market and this is not done by just delivering what has been announced before.

Personally I appreciate thoughts that are out of the boundaries the majority anticipates. This is just good for all of us like checks and balances. It a valuable skill to have people in the team who have other opinions and have arguments in favor for it. It’s a not so valuable skill if people try to make these people not sharing their thoughts.

This plays in both directions and to be clear I am not saying I believe this will happen but I appreciate his thoughts and calculations.

So, lets all try to absorb all thoughts we can get, weight them and everybody can make his conclusions based on it.

 

[30seconds]

I think the $35k version will be a pretty successful option. Unlike the S + X, some owners of the Model 3 will be using the vehicle as their 2nd or 3rd car (e.g., not primary) and really only need it for local travel.

 

[Reciprocity]

VA just pointed out a Szenario where Tesla achieves the 5 k/ w goal 4 weeks earlier which may sound bold for most of the critics here. Some people can’t imagine this simply because they are used to the Elon time paradigm but asking me there are a couple of good reasons why that over promising and under delivering may end very soon.

Elon makes a plan for everything and if he wants to get to his compensation he has to change. People may believe he just continues with business as usual but I believe he has layed out a plan already and even before the company who designed the company plan has been hired, to be able to surprise the market and this is not done by just delivering what has been announced before.

Personally I appreciate thoughts that are out of the boundaries the majority anticipates. This is just good for all of us like checks and balances. It a valuable skill to have people in the team who have other opinions and have arguments in favor for it. It’s a not so valuable skill if people try to make these people not sharing their thoughts.

This plays in both directions and to be clear I am not saying I believe this will happen but I appreciate his thoughts and calculations.

So, lets all try to absorb all thoughts we can get, weight them and everybody can make his conclusions based on it.

I agree, 4 weeks early is really 2-5 months late instead of 3-6 behind the original and revised estimates. Dont forget that the speed of production will have some big steps up potentially after long periods of time, but also could be after short periods of time. When what ever it was that was slowing things down clears, you may not instantly run into something new that slows things down and the increase in production can proceed pretty quickly until something gets in the way. Be it battery pack supply, other suppliers or some part of the model 3 line not working at a pace of grandma using a walker..

 

[Ugliest1]

I'm seeing headlines about a recall in China, I assume it's just part of the steering recall, but articles are vague, purposely I'm sure.

Recycling old information broken out differently to imply problems. Absolutely no actual news here.

 

[viridi]

Recycling old information broken out differently to imply problems. Absolutely no actual news here.

As the shorts/those who want to see Tesla fail seem so good at doing. They really know how to play the bots and then enhance any decline with their short selling. They are quite skillful and can make things very frustrating at times. The flip side is they do create tremendous buying opportunities.

 

[Skryll]

I think the $35k version will be a pretty successful option. Unlike the S + X, some owners of the Model 3 will be using the vehicle as their 2nd or 3rd car (e.g., not primary) and really only need it for local travel.

Exactly. Which is why I think a performance version with short range battery even makes sense. For us we go on vacation in the Model X90D because of extra luggage space, despite the much less range compared to our Model 3. Which kind of makes me sad but then there is also the all wheel drive vs rear wheel drive, so even on shorter skiing trips into the mountains the Model X will be the preferred choice.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Now they're just messing with us

Model 3 VINs on Twitter

View attachment 292854

I don't think they are very happy with VIN counting right now.
Welp, we "did it"? Looks like some delivery centers are covering the VINs now (this is from Devon SC Yesterday) • r/teslamotors

 

[mongo]

I don't think they are very happy with VIN counting right now.
Welp, we "did it"? Looks like some delivery centers are covering the VINs now (this is from Devon SC Yesterday) • r/teslamotors

And/ or they know this will cut down on random people wandering around the lots.

 

[jelloslug]

I don't think they are very happy with VIN counting right now.
Welp, we "did it"? Looks like some delivery centers are covering the VINs now (this is from Devon SC Yesterday) • r/teslamotors

It the windows sticker still on display in the car? The VIN is on that also.

 

[Reciprocity]

I don't think they are very happy with VIN counting right now.
Welp, we "did it"? Looks like some delivery centers are covering the VINs now (this is from Devon SC Yesterday) • r/teslamotors

They have been covering VINs at my service center for a month.