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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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#7,101
30seconds said:
Holy Snikes the shorts are losing their $**T. There is definite panic.
Click to expand...
I can't tell if they are actually panicking but they sure are talking up a storm tonight...They all seem to take Elon's letter as reaffirming their viewpoints that TSLA is doomed and I don't think it's just them talking the email down and trying to reassure themselves of their short position; I think they actually believe the email is bad news. It's crazy how we can all read the same email and get the exact opposite conclusions.

I think the actual panic of the short time shorts sets in if we break above ~$310. Otherwise it's just another opportunity to "short the pop" as I keep seeing them say. Long term shorts are going to be here until they get forced to cover. With that said, one of the TSLA bears I follow on twitter is a trader (NOT a permabear) and is now temporarily bullish on TSLA. He thinks bears overstepped their reach and got too cocky and are going to get it handed to them now. While long term bearish and anti-TSLA he has no qualms making money on TSLA up and down. Several other traders I follow that play TSLA both directions were in TSLA puts yesterday also think it was a possible tipping point as far as momentum changing from bearish to bullish.
 
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#7,102
China removing the 50/50 joint venture requirement is such a huge deal for Tesla's mid and long term growth. I don't think the market fully understand the importance. Also, I think China will soon announce a significant tariff drop on imported EVs.

Elon's email and the first music reflect excitement, ambition, and determination. I think the ramp to 5000 will happen, probably slightly behind the plan. The risk should not be under estimated. Not all part suppliers can work as hard as Tesla.

Without production, the financial situation is very tight. It will improve dramatically once the Model 3 production reaches 3000 a week ($2B revenue per quarter on $1.2B cost).

I believe Elon used to be slightly worried about Model 3's long term demand. It's a big relief with the progress in China. China alone could order 1 million a year (3% of it's yearly vehicle market). As more invites are sent out to online reservers, I think the immediate ordering rate will be quite low. This is something we should pay attention.

I stay on my plan, keep adding shares with new cash. Let shorts worry about everything else.
 
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#7,105
Wondering just how close they need to be to 5k/wk to be profitable (and how profitable 5k/wk is). Guessing it depends greatly on R&D expense and the Model 3 CapEx payment plan. It may be that Q3 planned expense is as much a factor as the planned volume. At 3k/wk average for the month, that puts them 60% of the way there...

Would be very interesting if they front loaded expenses to 2017/Q1 '18 (or Q2 '18 for that matter).

(And no, I'm not (very) serious about this)
 
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#7,108
Yggdrasill said:
I'm thinking they'll hit 32k Model 3 production in Q2 and 60k Model 3 production in Q3. Deliveries maybe 28k and 55k. That should be something like 1.5 billion added revenue in Q2 and 3 billion added revenue in Q3 vs Q4 2017.

The big question is what the margins will be like.
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For Q3, your numbers would result in a very rough total of $6B in revenue, assuming S/X/TE revenue doesn't change from Q3 2017 to keep things simple. This would be ~100% revenue growth over Q3 2017 ($2.9B). That's $24B annual revenue.

At today's SP that equates to roughly a 2/1 P/S ratio. That's awfully low for a company growing as fast as Tesla (WAY too low IMO), especially with Model 3 production increasing to 10K/week, Model Y and Semi coming up next. AMZN currently has a P/S of about 4 and growth has been in the 25-30% range.
 
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#7,109
In college, I worked at resort hotels. At the time they had housing.
Not barrcks, everyone had a room, separate men/women buildings.
Some folks stayed in that life, went around the world that way,
saved a lot of cash, or spent it and had a blast.

Do that.
Provide levels of support for the incoming workers, from everywhere.
There could be a 30 day barracks approach, with a Mattis inspired teacher,
classes on all this and that, get pay for work, be able to save most of the cash.
A food plan.
Then a 90 day unit, rooms.
Now a nominal fee for that for a week, say 150 bux would cover the cost of it.

There would be competition for this opportunity, people drawn from all over.
*
Folks have the option, rather the potential benefit of staying perhaps a year.

They could save a wad, work their butt off, build the future.
Some would buy a house or a Tesla,
or a house and a Tesla.

Rent and do the cocaine, gambling and hookers thing.
Would have to watch out for that.
*
Assignment to barracks to start or 90 housing depends on individual.
So Barracks, a 90 day and a long term unit.
Earned, higher status.

Boom.
I bet 10,000 would sign up for this by noon today.
 
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#7,111
Saudi want's oil to reach $80~100 (Their oil reserve IPO is coming). It's likely to get there. In the past few years, oil companies cut down exploration spending. All they need is that US producers to go long, then cut production (shale producers don't hate money). Oil/gas importing countries will suffer again. Farmers will finally see light. This will be good for Tesla's EV demand, but material cost will go up.
 
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#7,118
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