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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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If I had an extra 10 billion, I'd do it... heck, 4 billion would surpass the normal trading volume handily at a premium.

Shorting Tesla:
the only winning move is not to play
-WOPR
Is this a line of credit backed by stock or already borrowed against? He needed a billion to start his AI thing and 100 million for the boring company. I’m sure he has a lot of other investments.
He has 10 billion in SpaceX equity and neurilink and other investments he could let go of. It all assumes he needs the money and Tesla doesn’t execute in the next 3-6 months.
 
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Is this a line of credit backed by stock or already borrowed against? He needed a billion to start his AI thing and 100 million for the boring company. I’m sure he has a lot of other investments.
He has 10 billion in SpaceX equity and neurilink and other investments he could let go of. It all assumes he needs the money and Tesla doesn’t execute in the next 3-6 months.

I'd say line of credit, easier to work with and more cost effective than a lump sum loan. But I have zero useful knowledge.
 
Tesla's efforts to develop an AI chip have largely flown under the radar but I think it is a mistake to underestimate them. The chip has clearly been in development for more than two years (since Keller joined Tesla) and in December Elon spoke very concretely about the advantages of the Tesla AI chip:

Musk dodged a question from WIRED Thursday about the nature and exact function of the chip his team is working on. But he did say it had features that address shortcomings of graphics chips that limit their efficiency—perhaps a reference to Nvidia. Musk said Tesla engineers calculate their chip will match the performance of existing products while consuming a tenth of the power, and costing a tenth of the price. Musk Says Tesla Is Building Its Own Chip for Autopilot
Tesla and Elon have been dropping hints for some time about how serious Tesla is not just about AI software but hardware. In the Q3 ER letter, they said:

The Tesla AI team, which is fundamental to achieving full autonomy, strengthened dramatically this year, with a number of the world’s best AI engineers and researchers joining our company. We plan to continue building Tesla AI until it is one of the best teams in the world, not just in automotive, where Tesla is already the leader, but across all industries. This applies to both software and hardware. Tesla - Current Report

And with Keller's departure this week, Tesla made clear that AI hardware is about to become even a bigger priority:

Tesla is deeply committed to developing the most advanced silicon in the world and we plan to dramatically increase our investment in that area while building on the world-class leadership team we have in place.” Tesla’s VP of Autopilot and chip guru Jim Keller is leaving, another former Apple chip designer is tapped
While we don't know the exact circumstances around Keller's departure, as others have mentioned he has a habit of leaving once the main design challenges of a project have been overcome and leaves implementation to others. After he left AMD in September 2015 the first product with the new Zen chip architecture he designed came to market about a year and a half later (Feb. 2017).
Zen (microarchitecture) - Wikipedia

(FWIW, since Keller left AMD its share price has increased about 6X.)

Given Tesla, Keller and Elon's track records and Tesla's clear commitment to developing a killer AI chip IMO there is a high likelihood that Tesla will be coming out with a powerful AI chip that surprises the market in the foreseeable future, perhaps (speculatively) in the next 12-18 months. I think the market is currently valuing Tesla's AI silicon project at about zero.
 
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How can this guy be a VC in Silicon Valley, manage $1,4B and still be so hateful toward Elon ?

Josh Wolfe on Twitter

Never heard of the guy but looks like he is from and based in NYC with a background in the banking world. Not necessarily a demographic predisposed to be pro-Tesla.

Before forming Lux Capital, he worked in Salomon Smith Barney's Investment Banking group, in capital markets at Merrill Lynch on its Financial Futures & Options/Government Strategy desk and at Prudential Securities in Municipal Finance. Josh Wolfe | Santa Fe Institute
 
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How can this guy be a VC in Silicon Valley, manage $1,4B and still be so hateful toward Elon ?

Josh Wolfe on Twitter


His clients like him.

Also, Elon may or may not correctly gauge the understanding gap between him and different parts of his audience. He presumes people are slightly dumber than they are, while I presume the opposite.

His way is more effective for a capitalist. No-one really likes to see sausage being made. At least it does not attract money.
 
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How can this guy be a VC in Silicon Valley, manage $1,4B and still be so hateful toward Elon ?

Josh Wolfe on Twitter

Get on twitter and ask him. Challenge his dumb narratives. I think to many very smart people are hiding here in the safety of TMC while bad people are spewing lies and causing major negativity. Twitter is to powerful of a tool, it elected a president and allows him to get his message out with 0 help from the mainstream media. Its time for us to leverage that power for good. Get on twitter, follow $tsla and counter fud with facts. always facts. Also note that most dont post any facts, so its easy to just call them out for lack of facts and if they resent some then counter them. I use TweetDeck because its owned by twitter and allows you to use multiple accounts and see multiple streams of tweets at the same time. Make sure you inclue $tsla and #shortthebottom in the tweet. Lets get that trending.

edit: im @Rec1pr0city on twitter for an example btw
 
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How can this guy be a VC in Silicon Valley, manage $1,4B and still be so hateful toward Elon ?

Josh Wolfe on Twitter

There are quite a few idiots that do VC or hedge fund, we have seen many on TSLA. Not surprising. Smart people is very rare.

I suspect this guy was fooled by the FUD in the early years and lost money shorting TSLA from $20 to $200. Whitney suffered and learned that's his own fault (but still don't know the root cause). Other idiots may think that's Elon's fault. This Josh Wolfe is one of this type. He has been very angry about Elon for years. His anger will prevent him from learning the lesson.

Of course he will not say "I hate Elon because I lost money". He probably thinks Elon's "lie" costs him money.
 
TSLA is currently the most entertaining investment I own. That in of itself has some value.

Beats reality TV.

If you had that much money, would you hire an attorney to manage your finances who was going to “start reading financial documents?” It is more likely that you would already have some financial advisors with experience.

I heard: he represented an ENE vendor/creditor who was concerned about ENE's viability and later worked with Weil, Gotshal & Manges in the ENE bankruptcy matter, possibly while still employed with his former law firm. It was in these capacities, if not before, that he began wading through SEC filings and financial statements.

You might be surprised by how many 2nd, 3rd, and later generation "trust babies" retain former practicing lawyers to look out after both their financial and legal interests.

Regardless of his bias, he adds to the entertainment,
 
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