General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[BozieBeMe2]

Welllllll.....

I’ve been waiting to post this for a long time (9 months!); thought I’d get around to creating a special thread for it, but....

...and THIS is why I said last year that we were going to be spending a lot of time with doctors, hospitals and all (’twarn’t me!)

HAPPY FATHER’S DAY, from the very oldest first-time Pop you ever will meet (you’ve GOT to blow this up - I can’t attach full pix with my limited bandwidth)
View attachment 310505

Congratulations! and a fine looking feller he is.

 

[BozieBeMe2]

Congratulations! and a fine looking feller he is.

P.S. great sign in the background

 

[AudubonB]

P.S. great sign in the background

...And did you notice both our shirts?!

 

[BozieBeMe2]

...And did you notice both our shirts?!

Yes, Space X
I didn't know if it was a 'Work" shirt or a fan shirt

Raise them in the nature of how you want them to be,
A very good moto!

 

[woof]

HAPPY FATHER’S DAY, from the very oldest first-time Pop you ever will meet.

You sly dog you. Hope Aurora and Borealis are taking to the new pack member.

 

[Yuri_G]

Hold on to your butts.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1008450201885872129

 

[kbM3]

Hold on to your butts.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1008450201885872129

The timing seems like it is the production numbers, but I don’t see how he can be that confident that will trigger a short burn of the century?

 

[Unpilot]

Hold on to your butts.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Dammit man stop posting twitter links! That is another 5 minutes off hell I will never get back!

 

[avoigt]

The timing seems like it is the production numbers, but I don’t see how he can be that confident that will trigger a short burn of the century?

We can fairly predict he knows more than we do and it is a pretty strong statement of confidence. Given that he is that certain I do assume more is going to happen than just announcing the 5k/w. The latter is factored in already from shorts.

It gets more and more tight for shorts these days and smart ones (if existent) will silently leave the boat in the next weeks and reduce positions. That itself can move us up significantly and trigger more to leave.

Obviously we all don't know what will happen but I predict the next weeks are going to be fun for us longs!

 

[Navin]

Attention:
With Elon’s tweet - the gauntlet has been dropped. Next three weeks are going to be very chaotic and you are likely going to sell all sorts of characters coming out with various versions of FUD. Stay the course and hope to see all of you on the other side of this.....

 

[30seconds]

Elon has been dropping hints at getting past 5k/ week to 6 or 7k/ week in short order. With the new line and various production improvements maybe they have all the major components of getting to 10k

 

[kbM3]

We can fairly predict he knows more than we do and it is a pretty strong statement of confidence. Given that he is that certain I do assume more is going to happen than just announcing the 5k/w. The latter is factored in already from shorts.

It gets more and more tight for shorts these days and smart ones (if existent) will silently leave the boat in the next weeks and reduce positions. That itself can move us up significantly and trigger more to leave.

Obviously we all don't know what will happen but I predict the next weeks are going to be fun for us longs!

I agree. It seems like it has to be something very large that will greatly affect the company value.

FSD seems like a candidate, but he has said that will start in August.

Cross country FSD demo?

Some new product?

I feel grateful to be alive at the same time as Elon. I mean c’mon. Friggin’ rocket thrusters on cars Attempting to make humans a multi-planetary species.

Wow.

 

[wdolson]

Welllllll.....

I’ve been waiting to post this for a long time (9 months!); thought I’d get around to creating a special thread for it, but....

...and THIS is why I said last year that we were going to be spending a lot of time with doctors, hospitals and all (’twarn’t me!)

HAPPY FATHER’S DAY, from the very oldest first-time Pop you ever will meet (you’ve GOT to blow this up - I can’t attach full pix with my limited bandwidth)
View attachment 310505

Congratulations!

Though my family does generation stretching. I'm only 6 generation removed from the American Revolution and I'm a Gen Xer. One of my grandfathers was too old for WW I and my father was 46 when I was born. He started social security when I was a freshman in college.

I think he was always afraid he was going to go from old age before I was out of the nest, but he's 98 now. I need to call him this afternoon...

 

[Boomer19]

We can fairly predict he knows more than we do and it is a pretty strong statement of confidence. Given that he is that certain I do assume more is going to happen than just announcing the 5k/w. The latter is factored in already from shorts.

It gets more and more tight for shorts these days and smart ones (if existent) will silently leave the boat in the next weeks and reduce positions. That itself can move us up significantly and trigger more to leave.

Obviously we all don't know what will happen but I predict the next weeks are going to be fun for us longs!

some of the run so far must be covering...and agreed that there must be more than just the 5k. although he’s been pretty transparent about prod numbers and the pain getting there. i wouldn’t be surprised if after they announce 200k in july that when the floodgates open it hits 6k..but even then, i’m not sure that sparks a squeeze. but then again, another ~30-40bucks and you’re talking over a $100 move in roughly a month, with the largest short in the market...maybe that does qualify for the burn of century.
what, if any aces, do we think it could be?

 

[Boomer19]

Elon has been dropping hints at getting past 5k/ week to 6 or 7k/ week in short order. With the new line and various production improvements maybe they have all the major components of getting to 10k

he made it pretty clear 10 would be next year. that would be awesome, but i dunno
the 7k, i think, was in the realm of possibility without another full end to end line build. you guys understand this much better than i. i’ll wait for someone to straighten this out. thanks

 

[RubberToe]

Hold on to your butts.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Electrek already has an article up discussing this. Along with 150 comments...

RT

 

[neroden]

That makes sense. I wonder what the relation is between the new tented line and the performance model. Maybe it's just a photo op for Elon to talk about both at the same time. The reason I originally thought it could be for Performance upgrades is because general Assembly lines would generally be much longer then 90' if it's complete. It could be that the new GA lines are only there to deal with specific bottlenecks in general Assembly. We have debated how they would go from 5K to 10K where some of the line is already capable of 10K. Duplicating parts of the line instead of complete lines. For example, I believe the BIW lines are capable of 10K.

We actually know the BIW lines are not currently sustanining 700+/day, from Musk's email. Hopefully soon.

 

[AlMc]

Time for another Jeromism: Time for 'reckless growth part deux'

 

[AccelAdvent]

May I add my own bit of speculation (and pure speculation it has to be):

There are 4 Model 3 lines:

GA1 and GA 2 are inside the Fremont factory and did not perform as well as intended, probably limited at 1.5 k per week each
GA3 is inside the Fremont factory and is performing as intended, but still spinning up (to 3K/week?).
GA4 is temporarily located in a tent outside the Fremont factory and just getting started.

When GA4 works at full capacity, they can close GA1 and replace it with a GA3/4 clone.
When this is done, they can close GA2 and GA4 and move GA4 to replace GA2 - and remove the tent or use it for something else.

Then they have GA1, GA2 (former 4) and GA3, probably each running at > 3k per week. Time for this might be end of 2018/early 2019.

Just my guess, but it explains why they put a line in a tent and hopefully fits with the shareholder meeting Information, yesterday´s e-mail and the general talk of 6k/week as an intermediate target.

I’m inclined to agree with this hypothesis, and believe another motivation for getting the temporary GA4 line up and running ASAP in a tent is so they can get the capex out of the way in Q2. Much of the line costs will be depreciated/amortized over production, and the ‘temporary’ setup / future move isn’t cost-free, but surely there are some up front expenses they can book now - paving the way more smoothly for the profitable Q3 setup.

 

[HG Wells]

If you think FUD about tesla is bad its nothing.

My wife is panicking about our CD's. She is worried that our bank will drop its FDIC insurance.
Some nut is saying banks are no longer carrying FDIC insurance because it costs too much.
She wants me to go online and check weekly that our bank is still a member.

If she finds out I have a Vanguard account I am toast !