General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Fluffer was overkill, Elon and everyone else gets that. It could be they just took every processed and set a team on automating ot without doing a cursory "does this make sense" step.

Robotics have improved since the 1980s, but there are still a lot of tasks humans can do with ease that takes a long time to get a robot to do correctly. And if a robotic machine has some kind of fault, it can become deadly very quickly. Humans can do dangerous things too, but a human arm flailing around doesn't weigh a ton and most human "failure" modes involve less movement than unexpected movements in unexpected directions.

Basing things on 80's tech is not reasonable. Concider vision systems, the CCD camera didn't exist until the 70s, and wasn't productionize till the 80's. Not to mention the computing power needed for image recognition. Original robots were pure motion machines with switch/ presence feedback.

Robots don't just flail around, just as Teslas with the ability to drive themselves around don't randomly do so. Servo/ brushless motor control fairly well precludes runaway operation. Unless the programming was incorrect, but that is why there are barriers to keep people out of harm's way. V.s. people working with people.
A robot also has a kill switch which makes it not dangerous very quickly.

Some things are hard to do with a robot/ automation. But once they can do it, they can operate 24/7 and be quickly paralleled with 100% tracibility and data logging.

 

[hacer]

Shorts are going to be all over this. Short term I think this is bad. It’s likely that the underbelly was punctured without the driver knowing, but if there is some sort of wiring that’s off, then Tesla will need to address it. I hope they get to the bottom of this soon, within the next 3-5 days so we can swiftly get over this news. Otherwise shorters and the media will cream them. How bad will this be taken out of context?

That fire was quite minor compared to https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/car-ignites-massive-house-fire-in-union-county/275-546780808 which didn't seem to adversely affect BWM's stock price. The haters will jump all over it, but its unlikely to be a genuine problem for Tesla.

 

[mongo]

Car manufacturing is not an "old tree". It's a highly competitive business where companies improve or die. Successful car companies today are the winners of a brutal competition conducted over many decades.

The opportunity for innovation has always been at the gigafactory, not in most of the processes in Fremont.

We are agreeing (I think). By old tree, I meant the decades of harvesting it. Auto manufacturing has been around and competition has plucked most of the easier optimizations from the tree. So the lowest fruit requires at least a ladder, but that does not mean the tree is barren.

 

[mongo]

@ mongo

2 lines might potentially reach 5k on their own and doing up to 3.5k at the time , burst. 3rd line is better, they don't need a 4th anytime soon.
Musk said putting cars through it, doesn't mean they exit all that fast and if they do, doesn't mean they are good enough for delivery.
GA is just a fraction of production , downtime doesn't mean it was just for GA. And ofc if they scale GA ,they need everything else to scale or they can't supply it with parts , there wouldn't be a point in increasing output for GA without increasing output everywhere.
And this is not installing a toaster, it takes time. I'll remind you about what was said on AWD, they start this month, ramp in July+August and volume surely by Sept.

PS: You guys are focusing on the wrong thing anyway, volumes are getting there , the focus shifts to margins.and how fast they can get M3 margins to 15% and then 25%. They need close to 15% in Q3 and hopefully 25% by Q2 2019. And once there is a better understanding on margins, the focus shifts on demand.

If GA is the bottleneck (cars exiting slowly), then an additional GA line does not require speed ups from everything else. Paralleling and then slowing the GA line allows the human workers more time to do their tasks which can benefit RSI and quality.

I agree the discussion of 3 vs 4 lines is not super important, but that was the topic at hand. (And it's not like any of our discussions actually change things at Tesla/ the universe (unless bonnie tweets them to Elon, or Fred writes an article))

 

[RobStark]

Elon responding to Gali at the shareholders meeting said Tesla is not doing away with Alien Dreadnought.

When Tesla learns what robots can't do it learns how to adapt next generation robots and how to design future vehicles for automation.

Tesla is not 1980s GM
Modern day Silicon Valley is not 1980s Michigan.
Roger Smith was no Elon Musk.

 

[neroden]

Elon confirmed that nonsense.
My take on this is that GA1 and GA2 did not achieve their target productivity and that with that experience they built GA3, which turned out to be so much better that they built another one, i.e. GA4. They have to produce now on GA1 and GA2 with lower margins until GA3 and 4 can produce whatever the target rate they’re targeting. Seriously, producing cars in a tent does seem like a plan B to me. All of this is fallout of production systems that didn’t achieve their targets.

This was also my read. I think once GA3 and GA4 are done they're going to shut down GA1 and GA2 to reconfigure and upgrade them to match GA3 and GA4.

 

[J X 3]

If GA is the bottleneck (cars exiting slowly), then an additional GA line does not require speed ups from everything else. Paralleling and then slowing the GA line allows the human workers more time to do their tasks which can benefit RSI and quality.

I agree the discussion of 3 vs 4 lines is not super important, but that was the topic at hand. (And it's not like any of our discussions actually change things at Tesla/ the universe (unless bonnie tweets them to Elon, or Fred writes an article))

Now you are adjusting facts to fit and focusing on just part of the argument.
That leaked email
“All parts of the Model 3 production system are now above 500 and some are almost at 700 cars already. Congratulations to all on making so much progress!”
“paint shop output, GA3, bringing up the new GA4, End of Line and Module Zone 4 at Giga” all need “radical improvements.”

This was before yesterday so GA4, the 3rd M3 was at 0.
What are you claiming after all ,that they are well underway to thousands of units above 5k?
2 old lines+ full or partial output from the 3rd must get them to 5k in 2-4 weeks or around 6k burst. They add a 4th to be at 8k per week now? They would deserve to go under if that's how they work.

 

[neroden]

Soooo it seems that there's a total lack of clarity on how many GA lines there are. Maybe someone can get Musk's attention on Twitter and simply ask "Is GA1 the S/X general assembly line, or is GA1 the first Model 3 general assembly line?"

 

[Navin]

The fire isn’t a big deal IMO. Media has already blown its top with that so not sure how much media buzz they can create. Monday should be up following morning typical short trying to control price premarket and at open. When u see the shorts posting all weekend - they are working overtime to control narrative and msg. Don’t let them.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm not sure the catalyst for a short squeeze will be the 5k/week milestone or the China announcement. These are both pretty well known, and I don't believe Elon would have counted on these starting a squeeze.

Supercharger V3 and the first FSD features are coming later this summer.

Could the catalyst be the automated Supercharging with possibly autonomous valet charging (as the first FSD feature)?

Except nobody really believes they’ll do 5k/wk by end of this quarter. Even many of us here are expecting just a burst rate rather than sustained.

And until China GF is confirmed done deal, there will be many who are ‘I’ll believe when I see the signed paperwork/ground broken/building starting/building complete/product coming out...

 

[mongo]

Now you are adjusting facts to fit and focusing on just part of the argument.
That leaked email
“All parts of the Model 3 production system are now above 500 and some are almost at 700 cars already. Congratulations to all on making so much progress!”
“paint shop output, GA3, bringing up the new GA4, End of Line and Module Zone 4 at Giga” all need “radical improvements.”

This was before yesterday so GA4, the 3rd M3 was at 0.
What are you claiming after all ,that they are well underway to thousands of units above 5k?
2 old lines+ full or partial output from the 3rd must get them to 5k in 2-4 weeks or around 6k burst. They add a 4th to be at 8k per week now? They would deserve to go under if that's how they work.

Yes, I am only focusing on whether there are 3 Model 3 GA lines or 4. That is all I am trying to figure out. I'm not talking about volume per line other than a reference point. I'm not trying to adjust anything, only get the piece to fit.

Please help me reconcile this data:
If Model 3 is GA2, GA3, GA4, and GA3 and GA4 need radical improvements, then how did they have two lines at the shareholder call which could possibly hit 5k together, with a third coming up that was faster than them? Was the 5k predominately GA2, with GA3 limping along and GA4 in process?

 

[elasalle]

After driving the car this weekend, my wife tells me to never sell my shares ...

 

[McMountain]

May I add my own bit of speculation (and pure speculation it has to be):

There are 4 Model 3 lines:

GA1 and GA 2 are inside the Fremont factory and did not perform as well as intended, probably limited at 1.5 k per week each
GA3 is inside the Fremont factory and is performing as intended, but still spinning up (to 3K/week?).
GA4 is temporarily located in a tent outside the Fremont factory and just getting started.

When GA4 works at full capacity, they can close GA1 and replace it with a GA3/4 clone.
When this is done, they can close GA2 and GA4 and move GA4 to replace GA2 - and remove the tent or use it for something else.

Then they have GA1, GA2 (former 4) and GA3, probably each running at > 3k per week. Time for this might be end of 2018/early 2019.

Just my guess, but it explains why they put a line in a tent and hopefully fits with the shareholder meeting Information, yesterday´s e-mail and the general talk of 6k/week as an intermediate target.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

The fire isn’t a big deal IMO. Media has already blown its top with that so not sure how much media buzz they can create. Monday should be up following morning typical short trying to control price premarket and at open. When u see the shorts posting all weekend - they are working overtime to control narrative and msg. Don’t let them.

If today is about average, there will be 500 car fires. About 100 people will die as a result of those.
It’s concise. It’s sobering. It provokes thought. So this is what I am saying Monday if I am jokingly trolled in the workplace hallways.

 

[Reciprocity]

Highly unlikely, that would be a waste of time and parts. Not to mention Elon said that they were making changes to the battery so the RWD/AWD batteries would be different. So you would be changing out the whole skateboard...

That makes sense. I wonder what the relation is between the new tented line and the performance model. Maybe it's just a photo op for Elon to talk about both at the same time. The reason I originally thought it could be for Performance upgrades is because general Assembly lines would generally be much longer then 90' if it's complete. It could be that the new GA lines are only there to deal with specific bottlenecks in general Assembly. We have debated how they would go from 5K to 10K where some of the line is already capable of 10K. Duplicating parts of the line instead of complete lines. For example, I believe the BIW lines are capable of 10K.

 

[Paracelsus]

Thought I would share a photo from LinkedIn of @Krugerrand keeping the bears and trolls in check. Keep up the great work!

 

[Stretch2727]

If today is about average, there will be 500 car fires. About 100 people will die as a result of those.
It’s concise. It’s sobering. It provokes thought. So this is what I am saying Monday if I am jokingly trolled in the workplace hallways.

https://www.nfpa.org/Public-Education/By-topic/Property-type-and-vehicles/Vehicles

100/day dying from car fires seemed a bit high.

About 200 die per year as a result of a car fire. Collisions with a resulting fire caused 60% of these. Assume the other 40% was due to spontaneous fire due to malfunction.

 

[Boomer19]

Nah, the iPace is well designed and well positioned against Tesla. It is a significant car, although the reality of the iPace will probably be plenty of bugs and low production. Plus no charging network. So I doubt it takes a lot of sales from Tesla over the next few years, but that doesn't make it an unimportant car.

The higher luxury end of the car biz is not where the main EV battle is going to take place anyways. There will be a lot of great $75K+ EVs, but those cars are not particularly important. It will be interesting how Tesla allocates resources to update the S/X relative to other needs.

agreed, but guys like montana skeptic think tesla will implode bc of this. something wrong w that dude.

 

[mutle]

Assembly lines would generally be much longer then 90' if it's complete.

I think analysis of the satellite images showed the tent is now 900 feet long, not 90 (I saw this number only in a couple of tweets). The image Elon posted is only a small part of the line. In the photos at https://twitter.com/skabooshka/status/1008057611613171712 I believe I see a line with red robot arms or some other red structure (not shown in Elon's photo). At the far end there are blue structures that look like what is shown in the photo Elon posted.

 

[Unpilot]

Dammit I clicked on the link and went down the rabbit hole of twitter comment's.