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bhtooefr
Active Member
If a squeeze pushes things up into my limit sells, then I'd be looking to buy to replace on the back side of the short squeeze, and that would almost certainly be above 420.
This includes a good look at ownership structure and how it might change when going private. Generally supportive of the idea and quite fact-based:
Tesla's Strengthening Case to go Private | Loup Ventures
Tesla's Strengthening Case to go Private | Loup Ventures
Next area where Tesla shines 
Nearly 100% of Teslas stolen in the U.S. since 2011 have been recovered
Nearly 100% of Teslas stolen in the U.S. since 2011 have been recovered
Reciprocity
Active Member
that's great and all, but that wasn't the point. The point was people adding on the way up.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Everyone keeps forgetting that Elon's tweets about 420 didn't spike the stock 11%, the stock was already spiking on Saudi news. If anything, elon's comments actually tanked the stock. All this sec talk is a joke, though the "funding secured" could need some support to clear them. The more I read, the less I believe there is a need for an 8k or that the tweets are material. Planning and thinking about things is not material. Actual deals are. The "funding secured" borderlines on the later. But that could mean anything and should be taken in context of the rest of the tweets which are clearly the planning and conceptual stage.
My personal impression is that Elon was forced to tweet after the Saudi announcement. Elon needed to cap the stock price at 420, though the real amount is probably a bit higher, maybe 450. Elon probably has friendly investors but they would not be interested in a bidding war so Elon is actually keeping the price down, not manipulating for his own gain. His goal is not about more money or control, just the same money and control, only private. Free of lying shorts.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I doubt the Saudi news was going to spike the price anywhere near 420 on its own.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
There was a second tweet, where he said the deal is certain and only depends on shareholder approval.
Sure, but the higher the base SP the less the buyout premium. 380 to 420 is better than 400 to 420.
Reciprocity
Active Member
How does that jive with.. I'm thinking of taking Tesla private at 420 a share. Did the plan solidify and agreements signed between tweet 1 and tweet 3. The deal can be certain and not be done. I am certain that I will have lunch today, but maybe ill have work come up and I wont be able to have time to eat lunch. The fact that it requires approval means its still in planning. What if shareholders say, we dont like the deal, given that havnt even been told what the deal is, I think you can be certain and you can be wrong. Its an imprecise thing to say because he cant be certain, but its not illegal. I still think an 8k is warranted related to the "funding secured" statement, but they dont have to. And they wont if they want the price depressed, which they do. They dont want the price over 420 because "funding secured" is at 420, not 520.
Next area where Tesla shines
Nearly 100% of Teslas stolen in the U.S. since 2011 have been recovered
That may sound a bit chauvinistic, but your thieves in Europe are way more sophisticated, cause after the fall of the iron curtain there were a lot of highly educated guys with no perspective who didn't mind to take away some toys from capitalists .... think of the viral yeah science bitch assad meme to get the point
Reciprocity
Active Member
Ok here is a thought experiment...
What if you where a large investor and you had the chance to buy 30% of Amazon 6 years ago at 210 a share. This is a once and a lifetime opportunity for a single large investor to 10x their money in 6 years, while supporting a great mission. There is really almost 0 better options out there to do that. Even if your Google, it would be harder to 10x your money by investing it back into your business. Do you think 420 is a fair price for that? Remember 420 is just 8% over the last year, while Tesla tripled production and doubled revenues. Does that sound like a good deal to anyone?
Honestly, I hope shareholders vote it down at that price but they wont, because they dont care what the price is, they arent selling. They will get transferred into the new private company and the stock price will be nearly meaningless except 2x a year. Someone posted the Spacex valuations, those gains are very nice and much more secure because there is not short army trying to torpedo your company with lies. The problem is that those that are forced out are getting severely screwed and some people might be forced out for reasons like, they cant qualify as a the type of investor that can old private equity. The worst part is these are the people who least afford to be screwed.
What if you where a large investor and you had the chance to buy 30% of Amazon 6 years ago at 210 a share. This is a once and a lifetime opportunity for a single large investor to 10x their money in 6 years, while supporting a great mission. There is really almost 0 better options out there to do that. Even if your Google, it would be harder to 10x your money by investing it back into your business. Do you think 420 is a fair price for that? Remember 420 is just 8% over the last year, while Tesla tripled production and doubled revenues. Does that sound like a good deal to anyone?
Honestly, I hope shareholders vote it down at that price but they wont, because they dont care what the price is, they arent selling. They will get transferred into the new private company and the stock price will be nearly meaningless except 2x a year. Someone posted the Spacex valuations, those gains are very nice and much more secure because there is not short army trying to torpedo your company with lies. The problem is that those that are forced out are getting severely screwed and some people might be forced out for reasons like, they cant qualify as a the type of investor that can old private equity. The worst part is these are the people who least afford to be screwed.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
You’re grasping at straws. From Elon’s perspective, as per the second tweet, the deal is all but certain. As an officer of the company he is subject to clear disclosure rules, which do not allow him to say ‘funding secured’ and ‘the deal is certain pending approval’ if funding is not in fact secured, or the deal is only in preliminary stages.
I don't know enough about the rules around 8-Ks and such, but I'm certain that he needs to have proof for material statements such as these. Since he has never done anything monumentally stupid in the past, I'm assuming he isn't doing it now either, so I fully expect he can back up his statements.
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I grok
There is a schism between the current value vs the future value. With the growth rate, the present value of the future value is high, but the assessed value of the present company is lower.
If you can stay in, you reap the growth in the future.
If you can't stay in, you would like the gain you are missing out on (which may be part of the reason one had TSLA).
If I had known in June 2017 I'd be bought out at 420 , I might not have held onto TSLA (well, at 10% gain I would have, but there were other stocks that performed better).
Reciprocity
Active Member
I agree.. Elon has problems if Funding is not secured. If funding is not secure then its clearly a lie. But with Fraud, the lie has to be for a gain. Did Elon pump and then dump? If anything, it hurt the stock and Elon. Its going to be hard to prove fraud and intent even if it was a fib. I know Elon has funding sources that would happily go on record with the SEC that they would interested in buying a very large stake in Tesla at 420. The problem is that no one will sell at 420, except those that are forced to. So the amount needed will be very small compared to the massive numbers you have seen thrown around. As little as $13B.
The SEC must investigate, that is a non story. They have zero choice but to investigate. All Elon has to do is pull out the napkin that Larry Page signed saying that he would buy every single available share at $420. The deal can still fall through if the price rises to 430. Elon cant control that, right?
$430 pre-vote with a majority of shares not able to convert would kill the deal. $430 post vote would not.
But we know that tweet wasn't exactly true because the board hasn't approved the deal yet. So it not only depends on shareholder approval, but board approval as well.
I am very puzzled why institutions not taking large sum of stocks/convertibles now, at $350 to $420 there is a nearly secure 20% return in less than, say, 9 months. How many institution can beat that?!! And if they are allowed to keep private shares, the return is not capped. $420 offer is a gift for new investors, they can join the run cheap, with insurance.
Krugerrand
Meow
Don’t be naive. The board will approve. As will the shareholders.
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