General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[FundingSecured]

I guess it is because I heard about it few days ago and conflated it with when it actually happened. Either way, it does not change my argument.


If Tesla is in as desperate situation as many shorts here and elsewhere would like us to believe, no one in Tesla would care about little details like "dilution". If you need money, you take money. Period.

You've misunderstood the short argument with regards to liquidity ("you've misunderstood", by the way, is the most common phrase I use when talking to Tesla bulls). Nobody disagrees that Tesla needs capital; of course they do. The argument is that the bulls, and I presume Musk, think that they'll get it from cash flow in Q3 and Q4, while the shorts think this is ridiculous and therefore external cash is necessary. The fact Musk turned down a direct equity investment proves nothing.

@FundingSecured
Anton W, izzat you? MarkBS, Keef?

Nah, that's not my Twitter. Just someone else partaking in the meme.

All good. You’ve all been smirking and gloating and laughing and proclaiming vaporware, bankruptcy, where will the money come from, competition on the way, Tesla killer coming to market, Gigafactory will never be built, cobalt shortage et al since IPO, while the rest of us here have been supporting one of the few men and his companies who is going to save your poor souls and those of your children by accelerating sustainable transportation and energy. Oh, yeah. And we’ve been making just a teeny bit of money too by doing nothing but buy and hold.

Carry on. You’ve got this. Any day now.

Would have preferred if you had answered my question rather than spewing this; I'm not not here to start the millionth "long vs short" debate. Not that I expected a genuine answer, since it's clear he doesn't have the money.

Anyway, I'm out of here. I wish all of you the best of luck.

 

[Krugerrand]

Would have preferred if you had answered my question rather than spewing this; I'm not not here to start the millionth "long vs short" debate. Not that I expected a genuine answer, since it's clear he doesn't have the money.

That’s rich. How about this:

Would have preferred if you didn’t show up here all smug and ‘Hey, just because I’m concerned for you, you should know we’re all laughing at you, ‘Keep it up’ but, but I’m not here to start anything, I wanted a genuine answer, honest I did.’

My apologies for spewing the short’s vitriol for the last decade at you, my friend who’s laughing at us out of one side of his face and wishing us all luck out the other side.

FYI, you get to find out the answer when the rest of us do just like for every other money raising event done by Tesla/Elon. You’ll get to find out which Chinese entity gives Tesla the money for Chinese Gigafactory when we do. You’ll get to find out which European entity gives Tesla the money for Europe Gigafactory when we do, and you’ll get to find out who’s coming up with the money to take Tesla private when we do.

 

[Reciprocity]

Im a huge fan of the latest short thesis where Elon is going to jail. did anyone think for a minute that maybe Elon is being cagey about the funding source because he wants some doubt to remain for a while? Timing here is critical. You cant let shorts off the hook to soon and you cant let them squirm off the hook until you catch the big fish. To much clarity to soon and shorts close their positions in an orderly manner before anything can get done. This thing needs to be abrupt and shocking to trigger a squeeze so large that it eclipses VW. Then there are the brokers/institutions that might have something to say about whether shorts can stay in the game or not. I have been thinking about the mechanics of the squeeze a bit. With more clarity, brokers will require more and more margin (may not be the right word, but the dollar amount required to be held to maintain a short position as the stock price rises dramatically) to cover the shorts. The more and faster it rises, the more "margin" is required to cover a buyback. Brokers do not want to be stuck holding the bag, so they will increase the % required to be on hand to cover (buy to close) the short position. They are not dummies, they might not let this get out of hand and they might increase the margin requirements sooner then they need to, to protect themselves. This will trigger a short covering rally, but no squeeze. A squeeze does not help the brokers, higher interest rates and higher margin requirements does help them. This will be a tell tale sign that institutions think the deal with go through. Right now, Elon seems to be content to leave people guessing as to whether it is possible. But I would pose this to anyone who thinks this is a ham handed effort by Elon to lash out at shorts. Elon has been working on this for a long time. Reports of talks with Softbank a year or more ago and everyone knows about Google having a hand shake deal to buy Tesla years ago and recent talks with the Saudis. This idea that Elon is a guy with only one plan or one move in his mind on a chess board is silly. He tried the nice way with 5k/w and profitability coming. He warned the shorts, many times. But if Elon is anything, he is absolutely relentless. He is like the terminator and he will not stop until the shorts are gone. Going private is only plan B, there is probably a plan C and plan D and plan E. I would not want to be on the wrong side of Elon and his mission, its not like shorts have been doing great so far either. Billions lost last year and more lost this year.

 

[winfield100]

Anyway, I'm out of here. I wish all of you the best of luck.

a strafing run. sounds like NYC1965 from SA. a short with between 7,000 and 9,500 shares short, and a tad bit underwater <where's that cinder block, lead weights?>

 

[EVMeister]

He came, he spewed crud, he left. What a useful contribution, he will be sorely missed.

 

[JRP3]

May the best informed win.

Indeed, that's been my premise for obsessively following this company for over 10 years now. I wonder who knows more about the company? Nah, just kidding, I don't wonder at all.

 

[JRP3]

Anyway, I'm out of here.

Just came by to take a quick poke at the bull and scamper away I guess.

I wish all of you the best of luck.

No you don't. Typical lies from the bear camp.

 

[Intl Professor]

It is nice to see Elon and David Einhorn become chums on Twitter and it seems to me it is high time for longs and shorts to put aside their differences. Since you guys have so generously committed $14 billion to buy 35 million shares to support Tesla's efforts to go private (probably half of what's needed -- thanks!), the very least we longs can do is make a little effort to ease the suffering and pain TSLA has caused you.

Glad @Krugerrand could help out by providing a little levity in these trying times for Tesla shorts. The Healing Power of Laughter in Death and Grief

My recently retired accountant, a really decent Republican, and I used to laugh so much at tax time his colleagues thought we were tickling each other. We were, but intellectually. (He was amazing in carrying on the most hilarious conversation while calculating a rough guess by hand of the next month's pain.)

 

[dmckinstry]

He came, he spewed crud, he left. What a useful contribution, he will be sorely missed.

Yep. It's people like him/her that make me want to see Tesla go private. I'm going to support the move, even if I'm unable to keep all my shares. And I think $420 is way below its future value. I've been holding some of my shares since mid 2011.

 

[Intl Professor]

Yep. It's people like him/her that make me want to see Tesla go private. I'm going to support the move, even if I'm unable to keep all my shares. And I think $420 is way below its future value. I've been holding some of my shares since mid 2011.

I've held all since 2010, although our cost basis is now on average about $92, despite buying a lot of SCTY at $84!! (Conversion rate, $663!—which I ignore in average cost calculation. I cheat!)

 

[bhzmark]

Indeed, that's been my premise for obsessively following this company for over 10 years now. I wonder who knows more about the company? Nah, just kidding, I don't wonder at all.

Very seriously, this is a key point. I've watched the the shorts closely and tried to evaluate the best of their arguments.

Nearly all of them seem to rely on assessing Tesla's past financials with no informed intelligent estimate of future financial results including projections based on past successful executions. They just don't know the company.

They are truly counting on model 3 production either being low or not being efficient and profitable. And no appreciation of the technological innovations detailed by Monroe and the German publication that did an in-depth analysis that support profitable cash flow. Again, they don't know the company and what it is doing.

I can find really no good examples of intelligent short analysis.
They are truly a textbook example of massive confirmation bias. They are unable to properly appreciate information right in front of them about unique and valuable technological innovation that has already and likely will continue to create massive shareholder value.

And importantly that innovation just keeps coming.

 

[MrDoor]

He is like the terminator and he will not stop until the shorts are gone. Going private is only plan B, there is probably a plan C and plan D and plan E. I would not want to be on the wrong side of Elon and his mission, its not like shorts have been doing great so far either. Billions lost last year and more lost this year.

Great post, the uninformed Elon follower/shorter is not capable to understand the complexities involved in Elon's actions in business, there would be zero chance of him bluffing a deal is on the cards when he clearly has the capacity to organise at least 3 different independent backers just from his dinner friends.

 

[Remus]

You've misunderstood the short argument with regards to liquidity ("you've misunderstood", by the way, is the most common phrase I use when talking to Tesla bulls). Nobody disagrees that Tesla needs capital; of course they do. The argument is that the bulls, and I presume Musk, think that they'll get it from cash flow in Q3 and Q4, while the shorts think this is ridiculous and therefore external cash is necessary. The fact Musk turned down a direct equity investment proves nothing.



Nah, that's not my Twitter. Just someone else partaking in the meme.



Would have preferred if you had answered my question rather than spewing this; I'm not not here to start the millionth "long vs short" debate. Not that I expected a genuine answer, since it's clear he doesn't have the money.

Anyway, I'm out of here. I wish all of you the best of luck.

So this is a scared short!

OK I am one of the weak longs who just bought some at 360 and now I am shaking under my pants. I know the only way I can truly screw up is Elon is going to jail, bring colossal trouble to space x and Tesla. I don't think that would happen but I am still shaking by the repeated propaganda from the short side.

But from this nice guy's posts I just realized they are shaking too. The only reason they come trolling here is to calm their own nerve. They are probably more scared than I am.

 

[Reciprocity]

Just wanted to let you know that this post is being circulated among the short community, and you're really giving us all a good laugh. Thank you. Keep it up, please. Would you be able to possibly tell us more about all these billions that Tesla has access to, since absolutely nobody else knows where they're coming from, since you seem to know so much.

Good, please pass along that we want them to short more. Let's see if you guys can get this puppy up to 50 million shares shorted. I mean, Elon is going to jail and Tesla is going to zero so 50M shares short should be the minimum.

 

[Reciprocity]

So this is a scared short!

OK I am one of the weak longs who just bought some at 360 and now I am shaking under my pants. I know the only way I can truly screw up is Elon is going to jail, bring colossal trouble to space x and Tesla. I don't think that would happen but I am still shaking by the repeated propaganda from the short side.

But from this nice guy's posts I just realized they are shaking too. The only reason they come trolling here is to calm their own nerve. They are probably more scared than I am.

I actually like emboldened shorts better. The more shorts, the more donors.

 

[Ugliest1]

I actually like emboldened shorts better. The more shorts, the more donors.

I like that word “donors”

 

[winfield100]

i have a short "trolling me with"
"..Once loaned you can not recall shares.
You can sell your shares but that allows the short seller to get a stock loan department to replace them..."

I find this a bit "incredulous" although, if true, makes me me determined to vote for TSLAP to force it and them, kicking and screaming
this would mean, i could not transfer my accounts to another brokerage,

Good, please pass along that we want them to short more. Let's see if you guys can get this puppy up to 50 million shares shorted. I mean, Elon is going to jail and Tesla is going to zero so 50M shares short should be the minimum.

50,000,000 times $420/share = $21 Billion. probably not going to happen.
look at the volume and A/D lines of thursday and friday. vaguely looks like walking down prices and perhaps unwinding positions, but wiser heads with more experience may know far better and different. sure wish Ihor at #ihors3 had a note on number shares short gain/loss thurs/friday. im but a beginner here

 

[Boomer19]

You say they are required to recall all of their shares.

generally speaking, shareholders drive the recall process, not brokers;
unless it’s a regulatory recall for REG SHO and buy-in notice i.e. forced buy-ins on short positions to clean up a fail-to-deliver
buy ins can be because of fail to deliver to another broker on a non-NSCC settlement security, stock loan contract, or fail to deliver to NSCC

in cases of fully paid lending programs there are different scenarios. they may attempt to recall loans as an operating procedure, but i don’t know a regulation that says brokers must recall all loans because of a proxy vote or corporate action, but obviously in those scenarios the shareholders will want their shares back for a vote!
and when a vote is announced, sometimes the record date is past, which leaves no setup for a recall-fueled squeeze

 

[Boomer19]

Or, just off the top of my head, maybe it's because he doesn't want to cause further dilution. Musk has made is absolutely clear that he has no intention of raising capital by issuing additional equity. Accepting that investment would have caused dilution. Dilution would push the share price down, and since a not-insignificant amount of Tesla's debt is in the form of CV's, price depreciation is the last thing he wants.

price depreciation from an equity raise also changes the terms of the convertible. it’s not the vaccuum you’d think it is.

 

[Boomer19]

i have a short "trolling me with"
"..Once loaned you can not recall shares.
You can sell your shares but that allows the short seller to get a stock loan department to replace them..."

false, you can recall your shares, they’re yours. you may have to unenroll from a fully paid lending program, depending on broker, but you can recall them. i just unenrolled and recalled mine last week.

anyway, it’s true if you recalled them, the short can find another locate (muscial chairs). but as liquidity dries up, as all games of musical chairs end....