General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Boomer19]

Can you elaborate?

remember in the section(s) that you pointed me to the other day, regarding the material changes that would affect the convertible formulas..

dividends have certain impact,
tender/exchange offers
merger
rights offer
etc etc

wouldn’t an equity raise cause dilution of the outstanding shares, and impact similarly as any of te corporate actions listed above?

the copy i found on bloomberg and printed is different (~190 pages) than versions online (like tesla website) for some reason. i can’t find all the corp action types and calculation changes

 

[Sancho]

I

Long term culture springs from a common “ether” experienced my many. That ether is actually a really really big idea that crosses all industry and business to a broad ethos that is directional in nature, but not defined.

Totally agree, Foghat. A leading edge indicator of this is the upcoming generation. As reported many times in this forum, tweens and teens love everything about Tesla. Two personal examples from this week alone: 1) my trainer asked if I could give her 12 year old son a ride in my S. He has been pleading with her for months to ask me to do this. 2) my wife and I are in a parking lot and three 14-ish girls come over and gush about how much they love Tesla, but have never been inside one. We invite them into the car and they literally start to cry.

F**k the financial analysts, the business press, the CNBC talking heads. The ethos that Musk is tapping into, and leading, is unseen by them, because of the wall of confirmation bias they have built up.

But sooner than they can imagine, reality is going to start crashing through that wall.

 

[brian45011]

remember in the section(s) that you pointed me to the other day, regarding the material changes that would affect the convertible formulas..

dividends have certain impact,
tender/exchange offers
merger
rights offer
etc etc

wouldn’t an equity raise cause dilution of the outstanding shares, and impact similarly as any of te corporate actions listed above?

the copy i found on bloomberg and printed is different (~190 pages) than versions online (like tesla website) for some reason. i can’t find all the corp action types and calculation changes

No. The 2019/2021 convertible notes were sold in Feb 2014. Subsequently, additional equity was sold in August 2015, May 2016, and March 2017 with no change to conversion rate. IIRC, there were explicit statements in the prospectus allowing capital raises as long as they to not constitute a "fundamental change."

IMO, Dr. Damodaran's video is worth 20 minutes

 

[Boomer19]

No. The 2019/2021 convertible notes were sold in Feb 2014. Subsequently, additional equity was sold in August 2015, May 2016, and March 2017 with no change to conversion rate. IIRC, there were explicit statements in the prospectus allowing capital raises as long as they to not constitute a "fundamental change."

IMO, Dr. Damodaran's video is worth 20 minutes

ok thanks for heads up, will watch!

 

[WarpedOne]

Waisted 15 minutes on that damodaran doc ...

Learned nothing new except Elon is not to trust and guilty for all the FUD.

 

[ggr]

Mod: moved a few posts to the market politics thread as the most appropriate place I could think of for them. --ggr.

 

[JRP3]

With all due respect, this is an auto forum. How Elon choses to handle outside issues is his business. This probably isn't the place for these types of conversations.

Dan

This is much more than just an auto forum. Example, the investors section is about investing. There are many other topics as well.

 

[generalenthu]

Waisted 15 minutes on that damodaran doc ...

Learned nothing new except Elon is not to trust and guilty for all the FUD.

Thanks for saving me 20 minutes!!

 

[22522]

Thanks for saving me 20 minutes!!

You should learn from the kids and play these things at 2x like they do with their lectures!

 

[Boomer19]

Waisted 15 minutes on that damodaran doc ...

Learned nothing new except Elon is not to trust and guilty for all the FUD.

nyu prof.. smart guy. skeptical. lots of opinion there...
some helpful stuff early on about how companies may be set up. don’t agree with much of the second half of the video.
i’m a believer that em always knows what he’s doing, even if i disagree at times with the execution.
people that don’t understand this aren’t following closely enough.

 

[gluu]

nyu prof.. smart guy. skeptical. lots of opinion there...
some helpful stuff early on about how companies may be set up. don’t agree with much of the second half of the video.
i’m a believer that em always knows what he’s doing, even if i disagree at times with the execution.
people that don’t understand this aren’t following closely enough.

Agreed. Something like 15 years ago Elon Musk was spouting gibberish about SpaceX becoming the leading rocket company on Earth and getting humanity to Mars. He’s set up goals for himself that can take 30 years to come to fruition. If you’re a Johnny-come-lately to Musk businesses you won’t have the proper context for when he says crazy things. Yeah, they’re crazy, but they happen, albeit not on the timeline he promises.

 

[Intl Professor]

Agreed. Something like 15 years ago Elon Musk was spouting gibberish about SpaceX becoming the leading rocket company on Earth and getting humanity to Mars. He’s set up goals for himself that can take 30 years to come to fruition. If you’re a Johnny-come-lately to Musk businesses you won’t have the proper context for when he says crazy things. Yeah, they’re crazy, but they happen, albeit not on the timeline he promises.

Haven't bothered to follow his statements, but are these promises or just guesses about when something projected might happen. Best example is "promise" to have self-driving test across country by end of 2017, if I remember correctly.

 

[winfield100]

Agreed. Something like 15 years ago Elon Musk was spouting gibberish about SpaceX becoming the leading rocket company on Earth and getting humanity to Mars. He’s set up goals for himself that can take 30 years to come to fruition. If you’re a Johnny-come-lately to Musk businesses you won’t have the proper context for when he says crazy things. Yeah, they’re crazy, but they happen, albeit not on the timeline he promises.

a bit more than 30 years, more like 500

 

[Drax7]

Famado

Waisted 15 minutes on that damodaran doc ...

Which reminds me of Woody Allen

“ those that can’t do, teach,
Those that can’t teach,
Teach gym “

 

[avoigt]

Tesla | Electrek

Tesla is bringing Model 3 to Australia and New Zealand ahead of international launch

Germany next?

Got a call here in Germany from Tesla this Saturday. He wanted to motivate me to consider an S instead of the 3. Didn't succeed. Confirmed that many people are waiting for the 3 here and the S is lacking demand right now but expects that this will change once the 3 is out here as well about end of Q1 next year. Confirmed Germany will get preference in Europe and should be a country that gets early delivery.

People will realize the difference and demand for the S will go up again. I believe he is right with that assessment.

In Germany the S delivery numbers are down over a longer period now. Not good.

Concerning the 3 they expect that ordering will start in December. Thats not a "known" but an "assumed". Ought to be right though.

 

[SteveG3]

No. The 2019/2021 convertible notes were sold in Feb 2014. Subsequently, additional equity was sold in August 2015, May 2016, and March 2017 with no change to conversion rate. IIRC, there were explicit statements in the prospectus allowing capital raises as long as they to not constitute a "fundamental change."

IMO, Dr. Damodaran's video is worth 20 minutes

Damodaran's blog posts (and videos) from the very first several years ago have been very very far off the mark re Tesla. When a massive (valuation tanking) flaw in his first or second blog and model's assumptions was pointed out to him with clear supporting evidence, he dodged and weaved, acknowledging some of it, but, tossing out some gibberish to justify leaving his nonsensical assumption and valuation unchanged. Since that early blog, I've only glanced at later blogs, but, I still view the same pattern- sophisticated showmanship again and again fronting the same message- to not invest in the stock- with none of the flowery faux analysis standing up to examination via facts and reason. While I do not know his motives, I don't take what he writes about Tesla to be what he actually thinks. It's quite clear he's far too intelligent to believe what he is serving up (fwiw, I think the same of Chanos).

 

[SteveG3]

im not sure where i saw this before, but note as we get closer to "now" change occurs more rapidly, vaguely like "log phase biological growth", straight up till almost 100% acceptance
is this a vision of the emerging cultural ethos perhaps. now that technology has advanced enough to realize visions?
View attachment 325177
The 100-Year March of Technology in 1 Graph - The Atlantic

Interesting graph, appreciate your posting it. fwiw, just glancing at it quickly, I have the thought- sure looks like when electricity became widespread in the US it dramatically changed how quickly other products were adopted. That is, I see more two basic phases in the graph (pre and post widespread electricity, ie, pretty much pre or post 1930s items) more so than a continuing acceleration of technology adoption. Not to say some of the latter isn’t possibly going on over that period as well.

 

[avoigt]

In case it has not been reported yet.

Headline in Germany: "Tesla wants hackers to repair broken Tesla cars" ...... well, almost but not quite right



Amit Elazari‏ @AmitElazari

Amit Elazari Retweeted Bitquark @ Bed

#LEGALBUGBOUNTY can’t be proud enough to announce @Tesla @Bugcrowd adopted a full safe harbor in their bug bounty + bonus! Waiver from warranty limitations! It’s my pleasure to help and I even got a coin! Love @tesla team thanks for recognition and for an unprecedented change

Product Security | Tesla

 

[bhtooefr]

Yeah, bug bounties are tech industry best practice, and they're not asking hackers to repair the cars, they're asking the hackers to find the problem in the first place so that Tesla can fix it.

That's a bad headline...

 

[avoigt]

Yeah, bug bounties are tech industry best practice, and they're not asking hackers to repair the cars, they're asking the hackers to find the problem in the first place so that Tesla can fix it.

That's a bad headline...

The real one is even worse but lets disregard them. Thats all what they deserve and I try not to poste any of this FUD be it intentionally or by accident not knowing better.