German Auto Makers Serious About EV's

[Lerha]

Glad you are seeing my point. Just because an objective is to advance the cause by building business that does so, doesn't make that cause "just a marketing phrase"... although I'd say in 99.999% the cases that is probably the case.

As for "viable", if you think a company of this age that has a market cap value exceeding other major automakers, with the perhaps, largest orderbook in history, and tracking to hit increasing profitability in the next quarter isn't viable, then it's clear to me why we probably don't see eye to eye.

Their market cap is ludicrously inflated. And specifically, its preorders, and they need to convert to actual sales before they mean anything tangible.
Increasingly profitability? They are not profitable even now, so increasingly doesn't apply.
Would a healthy, profitable, viable Tesla create a special purpose entity (SPE) and mortgage its main assembly plant as it did very recently?

 

[mongo]

Their market cap is ludicrously inflated. And specifically, its preorders, and they need to convert to actual sales before they mean anything tangible.
Increasingly profitability? They are not profitable even now, so increasingly doesn't apply.
Would a healthy, profitable, viable Tesla create a special purpose entity (SPE) and mortgage its main assembly plant as it did very recently?

Spoiler: mortgage

Phth. Ford mortgaged their freaking blue oval along with everything else to get 20+ billion (GM and Chrsyler went bankrupt). Tesla leveraging assets to avoid dilution/ future commitments is just fine with this shareholder.

Spoiler: profit

Tesla sans expansion is profitable, just like the other OEMs. Unlike others, Tesla bears the cost of showrooms and delivery centers.

Spoiler: tangible

check out the Canadian wait on VIN thread, or the AWD countdown for a reality check on the tangibilty of the significance of the reservation backlog/ Model 3 backorders

Spoiler: Star Wars

Han shot first

 

[scaesare]

Their market cap is ludicrously inflated. And specifically, its preorders, and they need to convert to actual sales before they mean anything tangible.

So what are you basing the inference that they won't on? They've sold every S & X they can make despite needing a several thousand dollar deposit, and a wait time of up to a couple of months.

Even if half the pre-orders cancel (unlikely), they'll be sold out first year+. And then the cars hit the road, people see them, and read the glowing reviews that are out get read, and people take rides in them and see them in galleries. You think the orders are going to dry up?

The one thing I've personally heard from several people is it's because of the wait as a result of the backlog that they are giving pause to placing a deposit, as they need a car sooner. What do you think is going to happen when the wait time is 4 weeks instead of 18 months?

Increasingly profitability? They are not profitable even now, so increasingly doesn't apply.
Would a healthy, profitable, viable Tesla create a special purpose entity (SPE) and mortgage its main assembly plant as it did very recently?

Bad phrasing on my part. My intent was to say that they are on-track going to reach the point of profitability in the next quarter, and it will increase after that. Do you honestly think that a cap-ex intensive business doesn't need to ramp, and are willing to proclaim them unviable because of that at this stage of their planned ramp to profitability?

As for the mortgage, as a shareholder I'm happy to see them leverage their assets for short term cash rather than dilute shares. You don't think other manufacturers do the same?

 

[Phillip L]

One un-examined aspect that may really hurt Tesla (and I have been a huge fan of the company) is the Trump Administration’s policies on trade. It looks increasingly like their plan is to purposely break the international trading system, to get rid of multilateral trade treaties. If a trade war erupts then Tesla can kiss its European sales goodbye. There is no way that the Europeans can allow the US to create havoc in their automotive industries with tariffs and not retaliate. And this will occur just at the time that the European car makers are coming out with lots of quality ev’s to compete with Tesla.

 

[david_42]

I continue to be puzzled by the "Tesla killer" mentality. Tesla is eating into the ICE market and any new entries would be doing the same. Unlike all other manufacturers, Tesla doesn't see this as a problem. The Model 3 is rapidly taking over its class. If MB or BMW comes out with a EV with similar capabilities, they'll eat themselves.

 

[Krugerrand]

They're being banned because they are a hazard and a nuisance.
People ride them on the sidewalks instead of bike lanes and leave them scattered where pedestrians trip over them.
Good idea. Lousy implementation.
‘Scooters behaving badly’ all over San Francisco

The city should simply pick up the offending scooters and then auction them off/give to charitable cause. People would stop leaving them about then.

 

[Phillip L]

I continue to be puzzled by the "Tesla killer" mentality. Tesla is eating into the ICE market and any new entries would be doing the same. Unlike all other manufacturers, Tesla doesn't see this as a problem. The Model 3 is rapidly taking over its class. If MB or BMW comes out with a EV with similar capabilities, they'll eat themselves.

I don’t think that the problem is them eating themselves. The problem is them getting eaten by Tesla. If their current loyal customers buy a Tesla, when they switch to ev vehicles, they may be lost for good. In a segment like this brand loyalty is important. They have to produce good quality ev’s just to KEEP their current loyal customers. If they do not step up, they are soon going to be in deep trouble.

 

[tescroft]

Ahem, „Tesla Killer“ e-Tron is delayed even more, as Audi boss is arrested in context of diesel emmission cheating: Audi verschiebt E-Tron-Premiere wegen Rupert Stadlers Verhaftung - manager magazin online

 

[jelloslug]

The German manufacturers are still a very long way away from being able to actually compete.

 

[jbcarioca]

One un-examined aspect that may really hurt Tesla (and I have been a huge fan of the company) is the Trump Administration’s policies on trade. It looks increasingly like their plan is to purposely break the international trading system, to get rid of multilateral trade treaties. If a trade war erupts then Tesla can kiss its European sales goodbye. There is no way that the Europeans can allow the US to create havoc in their automotive industries with tariffs and not retaliate. And this will occur just at the time that the European car makers are coming out with lots of quality ev’s to compete with Tesla.

Please do not think I am arguing that the isolationist practices of the trump Administration are wise or practical, except as a tactic to destroy US global effectiveness.
Still, even under Smoot-Hawley some smart US-based companies did manage stellar returns:
From Forbes magazine:

A quick review shows that those companies that embraced new technologies were high successful while those that did not tended to suffer.
Examples: (some not on this Forbes list):
Proctor & Gamble- gained profits and market share by advertising products that replaced traditionally home-made ones (e.g. Ivory, Camay and Lava soaps, Cisco) using the new radio medium.
General Electric- busily electrifying the world, ignoring downturn;
AT&T- telephones everywhere;
RCA- radio
Chevrolet- not only Jack Benny but pretty much invented radio program entertainment and created an enduring legacy that has taken nearly 90 years to fade.

Now it is BEV's. Not only Tesla but some Germans (Daimler-Benz, BMW) and Chinese (Volvo, Geely, BYD) will thrive.
What will be the impact on German builders of Spain deciding to out-Norway Norway? Answer: just watch those Spanish BEV plants rise!

 

[mspohr]

Please do not think I am arguing that the isolationist practices of the trump Administration are wise or practical, except as a tactic to destroy US global effectiveness.
Still, even under Smoot-Hawley some smart US-based companies did manage stellar returns:
From Forbes magazine:
View attachment 312539
A quick review shows that those companies that embraced new technologies were high successful while those that did not tended to suffer.
Examples: (some not on this Forbes list):
Proctor & Gamble- gained profits and market share by advertising products that replaced traditionally home-made ones (e.g. Ivory, Camay and Lava soaps, Cisco) using the new radio medium.
General Electric- busily electrifying the world, ignoring downturn;
AT&T- telephones everywhere;
RCA- radio
Chevrolet- not only Jack Benny but pretty much invented radio program entertainment and created an enduring legacy that has taken nearly 90 years to fade.

Now it is BEV's. Not only Tesla but some Germans (Daimler-Benz, BMW) and Chinese (Volvo, Geely, BYD) will thrive.
What will be the impact on German builders of Spain deciding to out-Norway Norway? Answer: just watch those Spanish BEV plants rise!

I don't understand. German builders of Spain? No sign Germany or Spain even considering being like Norway.

 

[jbcarioca]

I don't understand. German builders of Spain? No sign Germany or Spain even considering being like Norway.

14 European countries call for stronger EU climate action
Half of member states back stronger EU climate action

This has just been happening. Note the list. Despite previous lagging the recent declaration that individual cities could make restrictions higher than the whole of the EU has "opened the floodgates" producing the agreement described above that happened yesterday. Individual cities now include Madrid as well as several others, that began in Germany. There are lots of references about the cities, driven mostly because of the diesel issues. I won't post those in this thread, but there are many.

 

[jbcarioca]

There are quite a few city-specific rules that will have disproportionate effect on German automakers because they have generally had a higher proportion of diesels than have other countries. Specifically VAG has the traditional highest sellers with SEAT and VW models, which have had much more diesels. The link is to Madrid, but other European cities rules are on the same site, including Barcelona:

Madrid

Despite the impact of the Audi CEO abrupt exit, and the subsequent cancellation of the latest e-Tron VAG will embrace massive change or die. Daimler and BMW know this very well.
I think they will actually manage to make the changes.

 

[jgs]

Please to be describing ultracharging in actual implementation...

Please see this documentary:

 

[mspohr]

Germany is in Serious Danger of Losing its Automobile Industry

As if the Diesel Scandal wasn’t costly enough to German automakers, the rapid rise of the electric vehicle maker Tesla, which first overtook the German big three in sales of large luxury cars in the U.S. market with its Tesla Model S, is now heavily cutting into sales of German automakers both in the U.S. and in Europe with the more affordable Tesla Model 3, which is now in full production. Despite the warning signs being clearly visible for numerous years, German auto executives completely dropped the ball and their companies are now lagging approximately five years behind Tesla in EV technology development and related industrial infrastructure.

China’s 2017 decision to introduce a California-style quota for electric vehicles left German Automakers in a bind, as they currently just plain do not have the capacity to produce the 10% quota of electric vehicles required by Chinese law. These factors have combined to create a perfect storm, where the CEOs of the German automakers have ineptly maneuvered their companies into a position that not only endangers their future as independent companies, but also endangers the economic future of Germany, whose economy is highly dependent on their success

Although all the German automakers say they have massive plans for vehicle electrification by 2022 to 2030, it has become very clear that they are up to 5 years behind Tesla when it comes to EV production capacity, technology, and a viable rapid-charge network for long-distance travel. While Tesla already is dominating world battery production for EVs at its Gigafactory in Nevada and the many Chinese automakers are forging ahead rapidly with electric vehicles and with battery production capacity, German automakers don’t have a single battery production facility worthy of mention up and running yet

History tends to be cruel to major companies that attempt to ignore times of rapid technological change. Kodak executives thought that film would last forever and Nokia executives rested on the laurels of being “the world’s largest mobile phone manufacturer”. Kodak has bascially ceased to exist while Nokia is now a minor player in the mobile phone market. If German automakers don’t adjust rapidly immediately, they will also have their “Kodak Moment” and, in this worst case scenario, Germany would be in serious danger of losing a major portion of its manufacturing base and suffering a crippling blow to its economy, which would reverberate through other European countries, dragging many of them down, as well