Any early reservation holder that thought they'd be able to accurately time a lease they were entering into over a year and half before production was even scheduled to start was deluding themselves.
Of course it is, it's based on the same info, given by the same people, why would you think it wasn't?
No. Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it won't.
No, it's just an objective.
You aren't going to get a "truthful" estimate. They don't know all the facts so they can't guarantee anything. Could they not say anything at all? Sure, but that isn't in their nature. Since you obviously have no confidence in anything that they say, post, tweet, or report maybe you should just stop looking for info, avoid the forums, and just wait for your email inviting you to configure. It seems like you would be happier that way.