Guestimating Tesla "invitation to configure" heuristic

[gregincal]

I think in Tesla's mind anyone who came into the store BEFORE the reveal and put down $1k on a car that they haven't seen might get 'something special'. The print that was sent out was sent to people who reserved a few days after the reveal so it isn't the same thing. I don't think we'll get something special after all BUT if they did do it I think anyone who put down the 1k in store before the reveal would get the gift just for the reason they put down hard cash on something that hadn't even been seen yet.

I just want to point out that in store is different that before the reveal. A ton of people reserved online before the reveal on a car they hadn't seen. It depends on what you think is the special thing, making the effort to go to a store or putting up your money on a car you haven't seen. As far as delivery order it's not like they need to really have cutoffs. For California owner orders we just saw them roughly do it by time of day. First we had a wave of morning reservations invited, then late morning, then afternoon and then evening online reservations.

I'll point out that for the current list, California first day online got invited before rest of the country in-store. I'm not convinced they will do the west coast thing for non-owners, though. It might be more efficient for them to send cars all over the country at the same time. We'll see (although come to think of it I suppose they might start California non-owners while they are finishing up rest of the country owners, since they will have already completed California owners).

 

[Garlan Garner]

I just want to point out that in store is different that before the reveal. A ton of people reserved online before the reveal on a car they hadn't seen. It depends on what you think is the special thing, making the effort to go to a store or putting up your money on a car you haven't seen. As far as delivery order it's not like they need to really have cutoffs. For California owner orders we just saw them roughly do it by time of day. First we had a wave of morning reservations invited, then late morning, then afternoon and then evening online reservations.

I'm not sure that is true. Online reservations didn't start until after the reveal.

Maybe I'm wrong....I can't remember.

It doesn't matter anyway.

 

[gregincal]

I'm not sure that is true. Online reservations didn't start until after the reveal.

Maybe I'm wrong....I can't remember.

It doesn't matter anyway.

I reserved online about an hour before the reveal started. But I agree, in-store is the deciding factor, I just don't like when people say what is special about reserving in-store is that they did it without having seen the car. Since I was a previous owner I figured it wasn't worth going into the store instead of reserving as soon as online opened, and sure enough it meant I only had to wait another 2-4 weeks to get my car over the in-store owner reservations.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I reserved online about an hour before the reveal started. But I agree, in-store is the deciding factor, I just don't like when people say what is special about reserving in-store is that they did it without having seen the car. Since I was a previous owner I figured it wasn't worth going into the store instead of reserving as soon as online opened, and sure enough it meant I only had to wait another 2-4 weeks to get my car over the in-store owner reservations.

I don't like that if you buy a model S today and then get your model 3 as an act of appreciation....then sell your model S - that you have contributed to the creation of the Model 3.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Lastly,

What I really don't understand is what Tesla is doing. Providing Model 3's to current owners ISNT expanding their customer base at all.

Lastly, IMHO, the majority of previous owners don't need the $7500 tax break and are using it up from those who will financially struggle to buy a model 3.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Who cares?
If the line is short at a store....then its just short and anyone can walk in after the line goes down.
Look....if you get up and leave your house you are separate from those who didn't.
It obviously doesn't matter. Soo....... whats next?

Exactly. Who cares? My point is Tesla doesn't know who the "line waiters" are. In addition, they don't care if people reserved before or after the reveal. It's a $1000 REFUNDABLE down payment. If it's so easy to make a reservation and get a place in line before the reveal, people did that. I don't think any people really interested in the M3 said "eh, I'll wait for the reveal to see if I like it" and at the same time, I doubt anyone who did make a pre-reveal reservation that night said "meh, I'm cancelling".

I'm not sure that is true. Online reservations didn't start until after the reveal. Maybe I'm wrong....I can't remember.
It doesn't matter anyway.

Yes, the online reservations opened a few hours before the reveal.

What I really don't understand is what Tesla is doing. Providing Model 3's to current owners ISNT expanding their customer base at all.

It's not about expanding the user base, it's about getting the cars into peoples' hands who really care about the long term success of Tesla.

Lastly, IMHO, the majority of previous owners don't need the $7500 tax break and are using it up from those who will financially struggle to buy a model 3.

It's not up to you to decide and judge who needs or doesn't need the $7500 tax credit. And if people have to financially struggle to buy a car, perhaps they shouldn't be buying that car. That goes for any car.

 

[Big Dog]

What I really don't understand is what Tesla is doing. Providing Model 3's to current owners ISNT expanding their customer base at all.

Perhaps not, but it IS doing exactly what Elon promised: current owners get first dibs.

 

[IhateOPEC]

Exactly. Who cares? My point is Tesla doesn't know who the "line waiters" are. In addition, they don't care if people reserved before or after the reveal. It's a $1000 REFUNDABLE down payment. If it's so easy to make a reservation and get a place in line before the reveal, people did that. I don't think any people really interested in the M3 said "eh, I'll wait for the reveal to see if I like it" and at the same time, I doubt anyone who did make a pre-reveal reservation that night said "meh, I'm cancelling".



Yes, the online reservations opened a few hours before the reveal.



It's not about expanding the user base, it's about getting the cars into peoples' hands who really care about the long term success of Tesla.



It's not up to you to decide and judge who needs or doesn't need the $7500 tax credit. And if people have to financially struggle to buy a car, perhaps they shouldn't be buying that car. That goes for any car.

Spoken like a someone who could afford to buy an S/X. Smug I think is the word.

I am just hoping some other company can build out a charging network so my next car can be from a company that doesn't lie and play favourites.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Spoken like a someone who could afford to buy an S/X. Smug I think is the word.

Smug? What are you talking about? Which part?

Ask any person, no matter how well off or poor, hey, would you like $7500 or would you like $0?

Nobody is going to say, eh, I have enough money, I'll take $0.

Everyone, regardless if they can afford a MS or MX has a different set of finances. It's not up to random people on the internet to blanketly decide that just because they can afford a MS/MX, that they aren't deserving of a tax credit fully due them according to the law.

Sounds like sour grapes to me.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Smug? What are you talking about? Which part?

Ask any person, no matter how well off or poor, hey, would you like $7500 or would you like $0?

Nobody is going to say, eh, I have enough money, I'll take $0.

Everyone, regardless if they can afford a MS or MX has a different set of finances. It's not up to random people on the internet to blanketly decide that just because they can afford a MS/MX, that they aren't deserving of a tax credit fully due them according to the law.

Sounds like sour grapes to me.

Indeed Tesla knows who the line waiters are. As I stated before....all they have to do is go through their receipts. What's so hard about that?

So far as I know.....

The Model 3's primary purpose is to provide an AFFORDABLE EV to the market. That's Tesla's / Elon's statement. Obviously they believe they haven't been providing an affordable model or else they wouldn't be making that statement.

Tesla knows who their customer base has been. Tesla's customer base has been intentional according to their business plan....and there's nothing wrong with that. They were aware of the customer base that could afford the Roadster / Model S & X. So....with that said.....

NOW....they have another customer base who haven't even started to receive their EV's yet.


When will the affordable Tesla reach the "affordably required" customer base? It would be interesting to know what the highest VIN number will be before a NON financially established group ( affordability required group ) gets their cars. 20,000? 50,000? 75,000?

 

[IhateOPEC]

Smug? What are you talking about? Which part?

Ask any person, no matter how well off or poor, hey, would you like $7500 or would you like $0?

Nobody is going to say, eh, I have enough money, I'll take $0.

Everyone, regardless if they can afford a MS or MX has a different set of finances. It's not up to random people on the internet to blanketly decide that just because they can afford a MS/MX, that they aren't deserving of a tax credit fully due them according to the law.

Sounds like sour grapes to me.

I don't blame people for taking $7500 they don't need. However, the smuggness is saying things like "If you can't afford it without the tax credit you shouldn't have it." All while gobbling up a SECOND $7500 credit for yourself.

BTW you are not the first prior owner who has posted this sentiment.

The credit wasn't put into place with people buying $135,000 cars in mind.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Indeed Tesla knows who the line waiters are. As I stated before....all they have to do is go through their receipts. What's so hard about that?

Again, read what I wrote. Just because Tesla has "receipts" does NOT mean that everyone who has a receipt was waiting in line. IT ONLY means they went to the store to make a reservation. That could have been HOURS after the line disappeared.

The Model 3's primary purpose is to provide an AFFORDABLE EV to the market.

Yes, this is the mission.

When will the affordable Tesla reach the "affordably required" customer base?

No, this is NOT the mission. Elon isn't responsible for who can or can't buy his cars. He can only make them and sell them which is his mission.

"If you can't afford it without the tax credit you shouldn't have it.

That's NOT what I said. I said if people have to struggle financially in order to afford a car, they shouldn't be buying such a car. That's true for ANY car. There are lots and lots of cars I'd love to buy, but I can't afford them. Does that give me the right to buy them anyway and them bitch and moan about how fiscally irresponsible I'm being? No, people should be fiscally responsible with their spending, and if the M3 with OR WITHOUT the tax credit is too expensive, don't buy it.

The credit wasn't put into place with people buying $135,000 cars in mind.

Right, it wasn't put into place with any priced car in mind. It was put into place to advance renewable energy/low emission cars. Just because the MS/MX is expensive, and highly successful has no bearing on anything else. The tax credit fueled (pun intended) the success of those cars, which is EXACTLY what the tax credit was meant to do. If that didn't happen, there would be no Model 3 to even be talking about.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Again, read what I wrote. Just because Tesla has "receipts" does NOT mean that everyone who has a receipt was waiting in line. IT ONLY means they went to the store to make a reservation. That could have been HOURS after the line disappeared.




Yes, this is the mission.



No, this is NOT the mission. Elon isn't responsible for who can or can't buy his cars. He can only make them and sell them which is his mission.



That's NOT what I said. I said if people have to struggle financially in order to afford a car, they shouldn't be buying such a car. That's true for ANY car. There are lots and lots of cars I'd love to buy, but I can't afford them. Does that give me the right to buy them anyway and them bitch and moan about how fiscally irresponsible I'm being? No, people should be fiscally responsible with their spending, and if the M3 with OR WITHOUT the tax credit is too expensive, don't buy it.



Right, it wasn't put into place with any priced car in mind. It was put into place to advance renewable energy/low emission cars. Just because the MS/MX is expensive, and highly successful has no bearing on anything else. The tax credit fueled (pun intended) the success of those cars, which is EXACTLY what the tax credit was meant to do. If that didn't happen, there would be no Model 3 to even be talking about.

Again......read my response. Tesla can get my reservation time and place from the receipt. Its on my receipt. I have a duplicate of their receipt.

Who cares if they waited in line or just walked into the store. Why is that important to you?

There are only 2 categories. Waited in line or online.

 

[dsvick]

The Model 3's primary purpose is to provide an AFFORDABLE EV to the market. That's Tesla's / Elon's statement.

Actually, the model 3 is the "build an even more affordable car" part of the plan, which is exactly what it is. There is no part of the plan about expanding the customer base, or getting people the tax credit, it is simply about getting more EVs into the use, regardless of who is using them.

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

 

[HankLloydRight]

There are only 2 categories. Waited in line or online.

Wrong. There are two categories: In-store reservation, and online reservation. All reservations are time-stamped.

Tesla has no idea who ACTUALLY waited on line.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Why is that important to you?

Because people still think that just because they actually waited in line that (a) Tesla knows that, and (b) they deserve something special (higher priority). And in fact, neither of those are true.

 

[N5329K]

Actually, the model 3 is the "build an even more affordable car" part of the plan, which is exactly what it is. There is no part of the plan about expanding the customer base, or getting people the tax credit, it is simply about getting more EVs into the use, regardless of who is using them.

The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

By definition, when you build a "more affordable car" you're seeking to widen the customer base. It's not just semantics. You're looking for bigger numbers, here. And Model 3 has always been about transitioning the company away from being a niche manufacturer.
Robin

 

[EVNow]

Tesla has no idea who ACTUALLY waited on line.

That's being pedantic.

Anyway, Tesla can figure out by looking at the rate of booking from a particular store. If there is a line, the bookings would be fairly uniform. If there is no line, they would be random. What they may not know is how many hours someone waited - like if it was 5+ hours like me or 10 minutes.

 

[gregincal]

Because people still think that just because they actually waited in line that (a) Tesla knows that, and (b) they deserve something special (higher priority). And in fact, neither of those are true.

Sigh, the original poster has stated explicitly that he is using line-waiter has a shorthand for in person first day reserver. It's clear Garlan is using it the same way (as do most people on this board). I'm sorry it's not literal enough for you, but can you please drop it. Tesla did seem to prioritize by time of reservation for owner orders, so people that stood in line before the store opened did in fact get higher priority.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Because people still think that just because they actually waited in line that (a) Tesla knows that, and (b) they deserve something special (higher priority). And in fact, neither of those are true.

Indeed it is true.

First come first serve. You know.....just like all of the other car companies and just about any other company out there.


Tesla says no......First buy, first serve.

The line starts behind the money.