Funny how merchants respond to increased demand for their goods. Imagine that. There must be a theory for that . . .After the deposits rolled in, its suddenly not $35K anymore.
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Funny how merchants respond to increased demand for their goods. Imagine that. There must be a theory for that . . .After the deposits rolled in, its suddenly not $35K anymore.
the entire short thesis
Tesla requires a capital infusion, if they totally stack the deck and sell every single one of their backlogged high margin 68k model 3's in Q3 2018, then MAYBE they can be cash flow positive for 1 quarter (paying zero suppliers that quarter obv).
But that isnt sustainable, i mean even your Lord Elon said the 35k car cant be made at a profit. Which is what bears said a long time ago and you guys fought it then. A company burning 2-3B a year and producing a product that both sucks and isnt profitable.
Quite the company the worship
Not unlimited but remember, this car has 450 000 preorders. Something no other car manufaturer ever achieved. So 1.5 years just to fulfill the existing pre-orders. By then the car is on the street, there is zero advertising for it so word of mouth is all it gets. Where I live I can fill the LR up for less than 10$. My Lexus RX400h already Hybrid will take 80$ out of my pocket for the same distance. Now imagine if the word gets round that you can fill up your car at home for next to nothing instead of paying top dollar for it. Got that picture in your mind? Ok, now you tell me there is no demand6 months at 5k per week = 130,000 cars
Have you done any research on how big the mid-size luxury car market is? I say mid size because thats what 50k+ gets you.
It seems like every bull case just assumes unlimited demand.
Yes, GM does lose 10k on every car they sell, and yes Tesla would lose money if they would sell the 35k variant now. BUT! Demand for SR is not terribly high. only 1/3th-1/4th of the deferrals was because of SR. By the time the 35k car is sold it will be probably with minimal margin, but not negative.Good questions. First, GM reportedly loses money on each one, but that’s OK because they earn billions from the rest of the cars they sell. Tesla doesn’t have that luxury. I have not really dove into it since I have no position in GM. I will say that if you absolutely must have a BEV and $50K is out of your budget, you would probably be looking at the Bolt or the Leaf. On the 3rd point, Elon made a whole presentation on the M3 starting at $35K then accepted hundreds of millions in deposits. After the deposits rolled in, its suddenly not $35K anymore. GM didn’t do this.
@Reality : as you were unable to do so I must assume that you are but the usual short parroting the well known and thousand times defeated short topics. If I'm wrong please state your argumentsThe entire short thesis is 95% rubbish and we have proved that in this thread already. Then you throw together very unrelated things and claim they are reality. That is not the way you can get to the bottom of an argument.
State your assumption clearly then we can discuss.
So you're answering for ShortSeller now?the entire short thesis
Tesla requires a capital infusion, if they totally stack the deck and sell every single one of their backlogged high margin 68k model 3's in Q3 2018, then MAYBE they can be cash flow positive for 1 quarter (paying zero suppliers that quarter obv).
But that isnt sustainable, i mean even your Lord Elon said the 35k car cant be made at a profit. Which is what bears said a long time ago and you guys fought it then. A company burning 2-3B a year and producing a product that both sucks and isnt profitable.
Quite the company the worship
Who cares if they're the same person or not? It has no material effect on the discussion. Besides, what incentive would somebody have to take two personas in this case?
Model 3 is a luxury sedan? Usually luxury sedans don’t include features like vanity mirrors installed with 2 sided tape and misaligned body panels and other things that legacy automakers figured out by 1980 or so.Yes, GM does lose 10k on every car they sell, and yes Tesla would lose money if they would sell the 35k variant now. BUT! Demand for SR is not terribly high. only 1/3th-1/4th of the deferrals was because of SR. By the time the 35k car is sold it will be probably with minimal margin, but not negative.
Comparing the M3 with the Bolt is daft though. The Bolt is a small, cheap compact car, the M3 a luxury sedan. Very, very different market segments. Is is clearly supported by the way Model 3 is eating into BMW, Mercedes and Audi sales.
Honest questionFunny how merchants respond to increased demand for their goods. Imagine that. There must be a theory for that . . .
No, I was never promised a date when I reserved, and if you feel like you are bait and switched and can't wait just cancel your reservation and get on with your life. Do you even have one?Honest question
does anyone feel like you were bait and switched?
I mean people put down 1k and were told a 35k car is coming, now its like 'nevermind, maybe we will build it, but for now here is a 70k version you can buy'
Model 3 is a luxury sedan? Usually luxury sedans don’t include features like vanity mirrors installed with 2 sided tape and misaligned body panels and other things that legacy automakers figured out by 1980 or so.
Ok so which luxury sedan does come with over the air upgrades?Model 3 is a luxury sedan? Usually luxury sedans don’t include features like vanity mirrors installed with 2 sided tape and misaligned body panels and other things that legacy automakers figured out by 1980 or so.
Honest question
does anyone feel like you were bait and switched?
I mean people put down 1k and were told a 35k car is coming, now its like 'nevermind, maybe we will build it, but for now here is a 70k version you can buy'
No more than when I made a 5k deposit for my 50k Model S in 2010. It soon became apparent that I would never be satisfied with the 40kWh or 60kWh pack, etc. And keep in mind the first new car I'd ever purchased (after 48 years of driving) was a 27k 2005 Prius.Honest question
does anyone feel like you were bait and switched?
I mean people put down 1k and were told a 35k car is coming, now its like 'nevermind, maybe we will build it, but for now here is a 70k version you can buy'
Ad hominem attacks aside, You’re completely right that I would be allocating resources towards the higher margin products first. Maybe we should be asking why the ramp up is taking so long, why the CEO thinks the originally promised price will now “kill” the company, why the reliability has been so poor, etc?Honest Question:
As your production capacity ramps up, you have to decide how to allocate that limited production capacity. Should you allocate current production capacity to lesser or higher margin products?
Wouldn't you be a flaming idiot for allocating limited production capacity, in the face of strong demand for high margin product, to the lesser margin products?
This is such a basic obvious business decision it is laughable that shorts make anything of it.
If this short thesis proves anything it proves the strength of the confirmation bias afflicting the scared bears.
You’re completely right that I would be allocating resources towards the higher margin products first.
Maybe we should be asking why the ramp up is taking so long
Because building cars in volume is hard. With a cash burn like Tesla's, speed is life. I think the company has already sacrificed comprehensive testing and some build quality for speed. They're relying on a forgiving initial customer pool. Putting expensive performance versions ahead of the base model keeps them in the shallow, toasty warm part of that pool. But the base model is the deep end, and they'll have to know how to swim for real when and if they get there.Maybe we should be asking why the ramp up is taking so long,
I think you meant to say,Maybe we should be asking why the ramp up is taking so long
.