Sure it's weird.
Or as statisticians say, it's a low-probability event, which is what throws all of these forecasts based on typical metrics.
Perfect storms are also "weird".
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Hi, I’m a short seller
- Thread starter ShortSeller
- Start date
Sure it's weird.
Or as statisticians say, it's a low-probability event, which is what throws all of these forecasts based on typical metrics.
Perfect storms are also "weird".
A low probability event that raise 7k and nearly 600 people donated to, so 600 low probability events really
JoaoD
Tech Enthusiast
That is laughable! If Tesla does not have any advantage why can't I order/buy an EV with better range than a Tesla at the same price point? Why can't I buy an EV with a fast charging network that is maintained and guaranteed to be operating when I need to charge while traveling that isn't a Tesla? Why can't I order an Ev that is not a Tesla that can drive itself for me for the most part of highway courses that does it better than Autopilot? And why the heck are so many manufacturers producing polluting vehicles if it's a fact that Ev cars are better than ICE cars?
More precisely, shorts just don’t understand the market demand — not just from fans — but from regular consumers. The 400k reservations aren’t all fans. They are just consumers willing to open their wallets months and months in advance. And just think about all the consumers who will open their wallets when supply catches up with demand and they can buy an inventory M3 on the spot.
It’s not about fans. It’s about market demand.
Many said the same thing about Amazon. Looking for quarterly gaap profits is stupid. Look at cash flow and look at long term enterprise value. But the key is long term.
This is where your confirmation bias is most acute. Read the thread of Canadians taking delivery of their M3s. They frickin love it and they are telling all their friends. Read any of the other threads and magazine reviews, and even the Autoline review. The technology and the car as a whole is awesome. Have you driven one?
This is where you are on firmer ground. And plenty of good businesses have hit a confluence of events where the debt replaced the equity holders. A perfectly reasonable question to ask here. How will the cash flow and debt service and conversion option work?
It’s complicated. And I haven’t seen a really analysis here or anywhere yet, but from what I can tell, if the stock stays above 359 around December, it all over for the shorts. They will be crushed when their positions are used to payoff the bond holders upon a nondilutive conversion. Now most of those shorts will just simply be hedge funds that did the hedged convertible debt investment for a higher yield debt investment. But I suspect the rest of the shorts will be caught up in that. I’d love more info on the possible scenarios here.
Tesla’s advantage is that they are not afraid to innovate faster than anyone else. An EV with a BMS that works is their current main innovation that no one else shows any signs of doing. The Nissan BMS sucked. Only time will tell how quickly other will figure out how to get the longevity out of a battery that Tesla has already figured out. Also supercharger network; also driving assistance, also simplified user interface, also mfr owned dealer and service. These are all advantages, which others will eventually copy, but then Tesla will have 10 more new innovations keeping them ahead of everyone else.
And because innovation is risky, some of those innovations will fail, some will be meh, and some will be revolutionary and everyone will copy. It is possible that if those results come in the wrong order, the debt holders might take over, but that is the high risk that potentially generates the high reward. Place your (informed, thoughtful, prudent) bets.
True, the potato salad fund raiser was unreal hilarious. I love the internet.I guess, online, you can find 600 people to do anything
PPAP is for supplier quality, it provides the golden samples to verify against, that was not skipped.
If your mean to be speaking of skipping prototype tooling dies, that seems to be working out pretty darn well, sped time to market, less development cost, and they have corrected alignment issues.
First, I appreciate you putting in the effort to actually respond with your thought process. Kudos for participating. However, I find your arguments unconvincing.
There are many here that do seem to engage in rationalization as needed. But not all of us. There's a fair number of Tesla bulls who frequently call out Tesla's terrible communication skills, Musk's endless optimism (which you characterize as lying), FSD marketing, etc. Many of Musk's comments are simply misread by one side (I'd argue shorts misreading optimism and 'best-case' aspirational goals as lying, while you'd argue bulls misread shadiness as optimism).
Neither 'side' knows it's on the right side of the trade. Tesla could absolutely go bankrupt, either through simple failure or via events not under its control. And Tesla could also become a trillion dollar company. Neither 'side' knows which way it will go. We're all just placing our bets.
What we do know is that those cheering for Tesla's doom are on the wrong side of history. The world needs to get off of fossil fuels, and Tesla is far and away the leader in working on that goal in the automotive and energy storage space. Financially backing the company's doom and knowingly spreading false / intentionally misleading information to try to take the company down are morally corrupt actions. That's a simple truth. (Note: I'm not referring to you specifically with the FUD. The short base as a whole is clearly guilty on that front.)
Wait, I thought the novelty was scheduled to wear off after the typical mid-cycle refresh was due, in 2015 or so. Now we're at the typical full-cycle refresh six years in, and it's still selling well and no competitor has caught up to its 2012 capabilities. When do you expect its 'novelty' to wear off?
This has been debunked, debunked again, and debunked again ad nauseum. But I suppose it's due for one more. Tesla has chosen to grow a physical manufacturing business extremely quickly. That costs money, and leads to heavy losses for long, sustained periods. Had they been satisfied selling 20k S and 20k X/year, they'd have been profitable for years now.
As for 'lying' about raises, plans change. Saying the company doesn't need to raise capital, and then opting to raise capital, does not constitute a lie. It means either plans changed, or the terms available were too good to pass up, etc.
They're 'right there' on every manufacturer's owner forum. My Model 3 was nearly perfect when I picked it up, and had better panel gaps than either my Leaf or my 2018 Volvo. Owner satisfaction (you know, the objectively-measured kind, not the 'forum posts make me feel that...' kind) is the highest of any Tesla vehicle (and higher than any other manufacturer's average). The car is great. That's objective truth.
We shall see. 'As of now,' it also has no debt due. Your position is that as of 3/2019 Tesla will not have sufficient cash or share price to service the debt. I find that highly unlikely given where the Model 3 ramp will be by then. It's certainly possible that you wind up being correct, as lots of things could happen between now and then that make life difficult for Tesla. It's not a given, though.
This has been a red herring from the start.
Who cares? The end result is Tesla is capturing some of the profit that traditional manufacturers cede to dealers. You're suggesting that's a bad thing because it makes comparisons more difficult? It's a clear and (in the US) major advantage for Tesla!
Part of what makes them superior is the fact that they're electric vehicles. The fact that you (and shorts in general *cough*markspiegel*hack*) like to equate all electric vehicles as being equal may be your biggest mistake. It's true that all EVs will have advantages compared to ICE. It's not at all true that all EVs will have the same advantages as Teslas. The idea that Tesla vehicles have no advantages over other EVs is incredibly laughable.
-Only Tesla has OTA updates built-in for the entirety of vehicle systems. Some other manufacturers are beginning to build in OTA capability for parts of their vehicles (mainly the UI/interface), but none has the level of integration and ease of update that Tesla does. Nor is any other manufacturer likely to, as no other manufacturer is as integrated in its software approach as Tesla.
-Only Tesla has the Super/Destination charger network. No other manufacturer is even trying to match this major, major, huge, significant, paradigm-shattering advantage of Tesla's. It's really incredible to me that this remains the case, but it sure does. Most other manufacturers don't even seem to realize why the Supercharger network is so advantageous, as those who are creating charging networks seem to focus on charge power rather than ubiquitous availability, convenient amenities nearby, large stall counts, and ease of use.
-Only Tesla has the simplified purchase process that comes with not being beholden to dealers (in the US).
-Only Tesla has a pack/BMS/inverter/etc skateboard design that Munro/Rickard/etc are calling far and away the best they've ever seen.
-Only Tesla has a gigafactory that's years into development.
-Only Tesla has committed to vehicle design that allows OTA improvement to the entirety of the car's interface.
Sure does. Fortunately for me, it lays bare that the short thesis is still highly likely to turn out to be disastrous for those financially invested in it.
Cult is a strong term, and brings with it the implication that those inside the cult are not thinking clearly or rationally. Certainly that may be the case with some. But have you considered the possibility that those who closely follow Tesla and own the cars actually do have rational reasons for being so into the company?
I mean, I like to believe that I think rationally, but am certainly open (as all rational humans should be) to the idea that I'm not as objective as I think I am. But I have owned many vehicles from several manufacturers, including multiple EV/PHEVs. I've done extended test drives of many others. I've spoken to owners of virtually all EVs at various events. I have first-hand experience with the advantages that come with a Tesla, and the disadvantages of traditional manufacturer/dealer networks (including with another brand that's often thought of as a big Tesla competitor via its PHEVs and plans to electrify its whole fleet, and one known for its design and lauded for its recent Sensus UI interface--Volvo). There's simply no doubt in my mind that Tesla has a huge lead in several areas, and that its 'competition' isn't even playing the same game at this stage.
Do you have similar first-hand experience in this arena to which you are short-selling?
There are many here that do seem to engage in rationalization as needed. But not all of us. There's a fair number of Tesla bulls who frequently call out Tesla's terrible communication skills, Musk's endless optimism (which you characterize as lying), FSD marketing, etc. Many of Musk's comments are simply misread by one side (I'd argue shorts misreading optimism and 'best-case' aspirational goals as lying, while you'd argue bulls misread shadiness as optimism).
Neither 'side' knows it's on the right side of the trade. Tesla could absolutely go bankrupt, either through simple failure or via events not under its control. And Tesla could also become a trillion dollar company. Neither 'side' knows which way it will go. We're all just placing our bets.
What we do know is that those cheering for Tesla's doom are on the wrong side of history. The world needs to get off of fossil fuels, and Tesla is far and away the leader in working on that goal in the automotive and energy storage space. Financially backing the company's doom and knowingly spreading false / intentionally misleading information to try to take the company down are morally corrupt actions. That's a simple truth. (Note: I'm not referring to you specifically with the FUD. The short base as a whole is clearly guilty on that front.)
Wait, I thought the novelty was scheduled to wear off after the typical mid-cycle refresh was due, in 2015 or so. Now we're at the typical full-cycle refresh six years in, and it's still selling well and no competitor has caught up to its 2012 capabilities. When do you expect its 'novelty' to wear off?
This has been debunked, debunked again, and debunked again ad nauseum. But I suppose it's due for one more. Tesla has chosen to grow a physical manufacturing business extremely quickly. That costs money, and leads to heavy losses for long, sustained periods. Had they been satisfied selling 20k S and 20k X/year, they'd have been profitable for years now.
As for 'lying' about raises, plans change. Saying the company doesn't need to raise capital, and then opting to raise capital, does not constitute a lie. It means either plans changed, or the terms available were too good to pass up, etc.
They're 'right there' on every manufacturer's owner forum. My Model 3 was nearly perfect when I picked it up, and had better panel gaps than either my Leaf or my 2018 Volvo. Owner satisfaction (you know, the objectively-measured kind, not the 'forum posts make me feel that...' kind) is the highest of any Tesla vehicle (and higher than any other manufacturer's average). The car is great. That's objective truth.
We shall see. 'As of now,' it also has no debt due. Your position is that as of 3/2019 Tesla will not have sufficient cash or share price to service the debt. I find that highly unlikely given where the Model 3 ramp will be by then. It's certainly possible that you wind up being correct, as lots of things could happen between now and then that make life difficult for Tesla. It's not a given, though.
This has been a red herring from the start.
Who cares? The end result is Tesla is capturing some of the profit that traditional manufacturers cede to dealers. You're suggesting that's a bad thing because it makes comparisons more difficult? It's a clear and (in the US) major advantage for Tesla!
Part of what makes them superior is the fact that they're electric vehicles. The fact that you (and shorts in general *cough*markspiegel*hack*) like to equate all electric vehicles as being equal may be your biggest mistake. It's true that all EVs will have advantages compared to ICE. It's not at all true that all EVs will have the same advantages as Teslas. The idea that Tesla vehicles have no advantages over other EVs is incredibly laughable.
-Only Tesla has OTA updates built-in for the entirety of vehicle systems. Some other manufacturers are beginning to build in OTA capability for parts of their vehicles (mainly the UI/interface), but none has the level of integration and ease of update that Tesla does. Nor is any other manufacturer likely to, as no other manufacturer is as integrated in its software approach as Tesla.
-Only Tesla has the Super/Destination charger network. No other manufacturer is even trying to match this major, major, huge, significant, paradigm-shattering advantage of Tesla's. It's really incredible to me that this remains the case, but it sure does. Most other manufacturers don't even seem to realize why the Supercharger network is so advantageous, as those who are creating charging networks seem to focus on charge power rather than ubiquitous availability, convenient amenities nearby, large stall counts, and ease of use.
-Only Tesla has the simplified purchase process that comes with not being beholden to dealers (in the US).
-Only Tesla has a pack/BMS/inverter/etc skateboard design that Munro/Rickard/etc are calling far and away the best they've ever seen.
-Only Tesla has a gigafactory that's years into development.
-Only Tesla has committed to vehicle design that allows OTA improvement to the entirety of the car's interface.
Sure does. Fortunately for me, it lays bare that the short thesis is still highly likely to turn out to be disastrous for those financially invested in it.
Cult is a strong term, and brings with it the implication that those inside the cult are not thinking clearly or rationally. Certainly that may be the case with some. But have you considered the possibility that those who closely follow Tesla and own the cars actually do have rational reasons for being so into the company?
I mean, I like to believe that I think rationally, but am certainly open (as all rational humans should be) to the idea that I'm not as objective as I think I am. But I have owned many vehicles from several manufacturers, including multiple EV/PHEVs. I've done extended test drives of many others. I've spoken to owners of virtually all EVs at various events. I have first-hand experience with the advantages that come with a Tesla, and the disadvantages of traditional manufacturer/dealer networks (including with another brand that's often thought of as a big Tesla competitor via its PHEVs and plans to electrify its whole fleet, and one known for its design and lauded for its recent Sensus UI interface--Volvo). There's simply no doubt in my mind that Tesla has a huge lead in several areas, and that its 'competition' isn't even playing the same game at this stage.
Do you have similar first-hand experience in this arena to which you are short-selling?
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Thanks, I appreciate the responses as well, my honest goal here isnt to troll. Im here when Tesla is up huge posting. Sure sometimes I might snipe back. I also get frustrated that shorts get accused of stuff that really is absurd, but i keep myself in the investor forum and try to focus mostly on the facts of the investment. Admittedly the whole thing is fascinating!
REally? You haven’t read the basic SEC filings describing the hedge transaction?
Here is my take: TSLA convertible notes and warrants
Perhaps more appropriate for you: Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread
How is Tesla the leader in this? Or do you just mean in terms of Brand? I agree the "brand" represents EV's in many way, but Tesla produces far less EVs than many competitors. I would argue Tesla uses the "clean energy" excuse to hide it is extremely questionable ethics. I am all for clean energy, i will likely buy an EV as my next purchase, but not a Tesla. PHEV are FAR better for the environment. Being against Tesla and saying it means you are anti-EV is the most frustrating accusation by longs. It just simply isnt true.
I dont have an exact date, but if you think the Model S is as cool today as it was 3 years ago you are wrong. The demographic of the 100k car market is to have the latest thing. That was Tesla for awhile. THe problem now is that the demographic for 100k cars is small and buying a Tesla that your neighbor has had for 6 years is going to be less appealing than the 'new' mission e or whatever else rolls out. So I guess my answer is when the next new thing rolls around? Tesla has had a long run with the model S, and didnt even make any money during that time. In fact racked up a ton of debt. Imagine when its no longer the 'it' car, what happens?
oh cmon with this, they needed to raise money to build the model 3, either they knew and lied or didnt and are the aboslutely worst forecasters on earth.
I am glad you like your car. You are using a sample size of 1 though.
because when you model tesla you have to assume a lower % of SGA to Revenue assumption in order for them to make a profit. I dont think they can do that because 10% of their SGA is essentially the 'dealership fee' they dont pay. I believe they will forever be unprofitable because of this.
No point in arguing here, agree to disagree that this serves as any sort of moat for anything, id argue some are unnecessary expenses and/or white elephants.
I have driven and ridden in a MS and X (not 3). It is a small sample size, here is what i have experenced:
1) Amazing ride, just great, EVs are great
2) EXTREME levels of forgiveness, the X owner I am acquanted with many times had to use a different automobile because his X "stopped charging", not one time, multiple times. He said that new technology has hiccups. Ironically about everything else he is extremely picky and almost demanding, but for his X he just forgave every issue (part of this i think was never wanting to admit he made a bad purchase but that is speculation)
3) The AP really isnt very good. I have driven using other lane assist functionalities, even ones that HYUNDAI has and they function far better than Tesla AP in my experience. This is why i find it very cultish, Tesla AP is not any better than base level lane assist, but people rave about it. I also find it very morally wrong how Tesla markets it then attacks people for using it the exact way its marketed.
Our cult is so awesome though, we get to drive amazing vehicles, we have a leader who is changing the world, and we get to chuckle as people misunderstand the whole thing, and we blow right by, quietly with a big grin. Seriously though, you should buy a Tesla and then you don’t have to make up this sorry short seller line to hang out here.... I spent a lot of time reading the seeking alpha blogs a few years ago, they don’t and won’t be having as much fun as this forum over he next few years so you really should think about trading “cults”.... were way more fun!
. I spent a lot of time reading the seeking alpha blogs a few years ago, they don’t and won’t be having as much fun as this forum over he next few years so you really should think about trading “cults”.... were way more fun!hey man, im happy that you are happyOur cult is so awesome though, we get to drive amazing vehicles, we have a leader who is changing the world, and we get to chuckle as people misunderstand the whole thing, and we blow right by, quietly with a big grin. Seriously though, you should buy a Tesla and then you don’t have to make up this sorry short seller line to hang out here...
Do you mind sharing sharing strike dates and strike prices? I would be fascinated to follow them. As far as size of position, its relevant because no one took the Chinese guy seriously about his motion to replace Elon with his whopping 10 shares.
People who voted for Trump buys Tesla's. People who didn't vote for Trump buys Tesla's. Replace Trump with Obama, or Ronald Reagan or Jimmy Carter and someone will say the exact same thing. People who side with politicians are far more irrational than Tesla car and stock buyers.
The reason you "don't understand the fan base" is precisely why you are going to get blown out of your short position. Tesla is consolidating to within 10% of its ATH. Once that level breaks, your short shares are getting called. I need more detail on your puts to figure out how successful they will be if they are.
I don't think Tesla is a novelty car if I've successfully replaced a Honda Odyssey Van and an Audi Q5 with a single Model X. My volt lease is getting replaced with a Model 3. My wife's commuter compact will also be replaced with a Model 3.
"Cool" doesn't sell 3 cars to one household. It has to perform for the tasks we need it for.
If all Tesla did was working on refining the S and X they would still sell plenty of cars and be profitable by now. Porsche doesn't have to sell 500,000 a cars year to be profitable. Tesla is not intending to be boutique hence the expansion to 3, Semi, Model Y, ec.
How many Model 3s have been delivered? This delivery is only ramping up. Do you see a significant unhappiness in the base as a whole? Do you expect Tesla to NOT improve QC as time goes on? Your short thesis here is over a year old.
Tesla has levers to pull if they want to be above a certain stock price. You will see by end of year.
I'm giving Elon an extra $28K for a P Model 3 which probably has a marginal cost production of $20 bucks. I'll do it because I want a BMW M3 killer. I'm sure there are margins there.
I only asked your short and put positions but I'm glad you gave your reasons. They are not convincing.
You don't know enough about the cars themselves if you think they are just "fun to drive". My EV Volt is a POS next to my Tesla.
Every EV from every manufacturer for sure is losing money. Yet everyone is trying to get there. Who has positioned themselves the best to handle that market shift while not needing to balance sells and support of internal combustion engines?
Yes it's weird. So is Snapchat. I'd rather drive around in a sexy Tesla than take photos that turn me into a cat - yet Snap had 1/4 of Tesla's Market cap at one point. I actually shorted Snap but I knew to get out when ahead because you don't short cult stocks.
Whether Tesla is a cult or not a cult that's really irrelevant. Only thing that is relevant is if you can stay solvent longer than they can.
I replaced both a Minivan and an SUV with one Model X. If you are using that example to rationalize your short, good luck. Why does he not simply take it in to get it fixed?
What AP hardware level and what date? I mean, I didn't even have cruise control working on my Model X when I took delivery in Dec 2016. That made the Model X inferior to my 1987 Nissan Maxima which has perfectly working cruise control. The AP capability today is not the same one six months ago, nor will be the same one six months from now.
I'm getting more and more comfortable in my long position based on the ignorance displayed by shorts. They don't really understand the product well enough to be shorting it.
I know what I'm doing as I go for Tesla #2 and Tesla #3. The best part?
Shorts will be buying them for me...
PHEVs are good in theory. In practice, you get the worst of both worlds. Low electric range, long recharge time, still have to fill gas, increased maintenance, poor performance, noise, pollution, etc.
Fully electric vehicles are the way to go. They are superior to gasoline, diesel, hybrids, plug-in hybrids, hydrogen, CNG, etc. And Tesla is the largest manufacturer of fully electric vehicles. They have a solid foundation on which to continue to build their business. Here's my view on the electric competition until 2020:
2018, Jaguar i-Pace, ~20k/year, Model Y competitor
2019, Audi e-tron, ~30k/year, Model X competitor
2019, Mercedes EQC, ~30k/year (?), Model Y competitor
2020, Audi e-tron Sportback, ~30k/year, Model S competitor
2020, (Volvo) Polestar 2, ~20k/year, Model 3 competitor
2020, BMW iX3, ~50k/year (?), Model Y competitor
2020, Porsche Taycan, ~20k/year, Model S competitor
This results in market shares for 2020:
Model S, 50k/year vs others, 50k/year: 50% market share
Model X, 50k/year vs others, 30k/year: 63.5% market share
Model 3, 480k/year vs others, 20k/year: 96% market share
Model Y, 250k/year (?) vs others, 100k/year: 71.4% market share
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