Hi, I’m a short seller

[johnnybgood888]

Not sure u can count 1 Q as "confirmation" but just like i said it was before M3 disaster and SCTY Bailout

Reality, again, if you want to have an intelligent discussion on a forum full of Tesla fans, it doesn't help your case when you use passive aggressive dog whistle terms like those bolded above. No matter how many times you repeat them here, it is not going to change reality (how ironic!). M3 by all accounts is a marvel of a car, and the production ramp is finally back on pace. Does it matter, if they are 6 months later than promised, if this car is going to be a multi-year, perhaps decades production??

The SCTY buyout was approved by a convincing majority of shareholders, so obviously they feel there is a return on investment in bringing it to the Tesla fold. We believe that it will eventually be a significant revenue generator for Tesla, and even it it doesn't become that, the purchase of a solar provider falls in line with Tesla's mission statement of accelerating the world to a renewable energy future. I for one, am glad Tesla took the gamble to buy SCTY. I fully believe the energy portion of Tesla will eventually become more significant than the car making part.

 

[Reality]

Reality, again, if you want to have an intelligent discussion on a forum full of Tesla fans, it doesn't help your case when you use passive aggressive dog whistle terms like those bolded above. No matter how many times you repeat them here, it is not going to change reality (how ironic!). M3 by all accounts is a marvel of a car, and the production ramp is finally back on pace. Does it matter, if they are 6 months later than promised, if this car is going to be a multi-year, perhaps decades production??

The SCTY buyout was approved by a convincing majority of shareholders, so obviously they feel there is a return on investment in bringing it to the Tesla fold. We believe that it will eventually be a significant revenue generator for Tesla, and even it it doesn't become that, the purchase of a solar provider falls in line with Tesla's mission statement of accelerating the world to a renewable energy future. I for one, am glad Tesla took the gamble to buy SCTY. I fully believe the energy portion of Tesla will eventually become more significant than the car making part.

ok, i agree on calling the M3 a disaster is unnecessary, wont do that anymore


but SCTY WAS a bailout, it's fairly well documented at this point. Are Tesla fans really of the opinion that it wasnt?

 

[bhzmark]

Well said. Using phrases like "M3 disaster" and "SCTY bailout" is really just a method self-soothing by shorts who are need lots of soothing about now. poor things. It's an internal argument that they are having with themselves, played out here.

Amazingly Mark Speigel has called it quits and appears to be one of the smarter shorts. Let's see how smart Reality is. Being here to test his ideas suggests he may be one of the smarter ones.

Reality, again, if you want to have an intelligent discussion on a forum full of Tesla fans, it doesn't help your case when you use passive aggressive dog whistle terms like those bolded above. No matter how many times you repeat them here, it is not going to change reality (how ironic!). M3 by all accounts is a marvel of a car, and the production ramp is finally back on pace. Does it matter, if they are 6 months later than promised, if this car is going to be a multi-year, perhaps decades production??

The SCTY buyout was approved by a convincing majority of shareholders, so obviously they feel there is a return on investment in bringing it to the Tesla fold. We believe that it will eventually be a significant revenue generator for Tesla, and even it it doesn't become that, the purchase of a solar provider falls in line with Tesla's mission statement of accelerating the world to a renewable energy future. I for one, am glad Tesla took the gamble to buy SCTY. I fully believe the energy portion of Tesla will eventually become more significant than the car making part.

 

[ggr]

but SCTY WAS a bailout, it's fairly well documented at this point. Are Tesla fans really of the opinion that it wasnt?

I voted for the merger, and didn't believe it was a bailout. I also made out like a bandit (as did some others here) on the arbitrage play.

 

[brkaus]

I have a question for people with Model 3 deposits.


Can I ask you why you have a deposit down for a model 3 at this point?

Do you think you will be able to benefit from the FIT Credit or maybe get in before the FIT credit goes away?

Do you do it for moral reasons? Just a big believer in Tesla and want to show your support?

Why wouldnt you wait until the production level is up so you can actually buy one and get it quickly instead of laying out cash fora long period of time (and its not refundable in BK)

I put the deposit down first day online. Was about 1-2 years away from needing a new car and both BMW & Acura have not been good for me at the time (repairs).

The car was interesting to me as I spend a lot of time driving kids around, waiting for their activities, etc. With electric I can sit in the parking lot with the AC on and work on my laptop and not annoy others. There is actually a sign next to one of the buildings I wait at about idling cars causing fumes in the building (Pool, has windows around).

Other electric cars at the time would not have worked as I go to nearby cities (~100 miles) every few weeks. Just not possible and would have required a backup car or rental.

My one car died earlier than expected (BMW), so I reluctantly bought the S. Really did not want large car, but now that I have it, love it.

Keeping reservation so I have more priority to get in the list the minute the Acura looks like it’s beyind repair.

BTW - not really intending by to bad mouth the other cars. I may go back at some point. This was my 2nd BMW and had all sorts of costly electronics gremlins. The Acura is just warn out at 150k miles and I’m not a fan of any of their offerings right now. I think they have done more for the Honda line recently and the Acura line suffered.

 

[neroden]

I voted for the merger, and didn't believe it was a bailout. I also made out like a bandit (as did some others here) on the arbitrage play.

Yeah, I haven't carefully separated it out from my other gains on TSLA, but I think I made roughly a year's expenses on the arbitrage play alone. Not bad.

I've given my explanation of the SCTY merger situation before, on this forum. Short version: SCTY was worth substantially more than what Tesla paid for it, but only if SCTY eliminated the "bank run" refinancing risk, which required merging with a deeper-pocketed company. So you could call it a bailout but it's also the bargain of the century. "Bail out". It's more like having someone sign over their gigantic cruise ship to you for a dollar because you promise to patch a small hole in the hull, and they didn't have a hull-patching kit with them.

 

[kbeckley]

Im going to keep my posts in very few threads for the time being (even though they are aggressively deleted even when they are completely rational questions)



I have a question for people with Model 3 deposits.


Can I ask you why you have a deposit down for a model 3 at this point?

Do you think you will be able to benefit from the FIT Credit or maybe get in before the FIT credit goes away?

Do you do it for moral reasons? Just a big believer in Tesla and want to show your support?

Why wouldnt you wait until the production level is up so you can actually buy one and get it quickly instead of laying out cash fora long period of time (and its not refundable in BK)



Very curious what the purpose is to have a deposit down as of now, especially if you plan on buying a sub 40k version of the model 3. I would love to start a thread on this, but it would probably be deleted.



I honestly feel bad if some of you never get your money back

I have a reservation on a model 3 and I am not sure when will pull the trigger - could be a while. The $1000 is nothing compared to the stock I was lucky to buy at $38 (I am no smart investor - just liked what the company was doing and EVs just made logical sense in every way to me).

If I was shorting this company I would be most worried that nearly everyone who owns a Tesla loves the car. Tesla simply makes great cars. I would love to see a stat of Tesla owners who would be willing to go back to what they drove before. It must be really low.

I was at a car rally last weekend at a local school and a Teacher/friend asked me to bring my wife's X. Picture a bunch of vintage cars, a bunch of tricked-out muscle cars, and one model X. Except for males between 25 and 30 the X had all the human traffic. Women, young men, older men - all wanted to talk Tesla. It was aspirational for many already. I was shocked frankly. Interestingly the muscle car owners were well aware that my wife's big 5 passenger SUV could out accelerate any of their cars.

The only short thesis that makes sense to me is if you truly believe that Tesla cannot sell cars for more than they cost to produce. I don't believe that for a minute.

Anyway as long as Tesla's values/goals are well aligned with mine they will continue to get my investment $, purchasing $ and support.

 

[neroden]

If I was shorting this company I would be most worried that nearly everyone who owns a Tesla loves the car. Tesla simply makes great cars. I would love to see a stat of Tesla owners who would be willing to go back to what they drove before. It must be really low.

It's more extreme than that; even people who are actually complaining about the car won't go back to what they drove before. "Once you go electric you won't go back". While I've encountered a few people who strove to replace their Tesla with a Bolt or an Ioniq Electric, even they were mostly deterred by the lack of fast charging and shortage of available cars due to low production by the other companies.

I was at a car rally last weekend at a local school and a Teacher/friend asked me to bring my wife's X. Picture a bunch of vintage cars, a bunch of tricked-out muscle cars, and one model X. Except for males between 25 and 30 the X had all the human traffic. Women, young men, older men - all wanted to talk Tesla. It was aspirational for many already.

I still get people stopping me on the street to ask about my *five year old* car. It is the aspirational car for practically everyone who's heard of it.

 

[skitown]

I have a reservation on a model 3 and I am not sure when will pull the trigger - could be a while. The $1000 is nothing compared to the stock I was lucky to buy at $38 (I am no smart investor - just liked what the company was doing and EVs just made logical sense in every way to me).

If I was shorting this company I would be most worried that nearly everyone who owns a Tesla loves the car. Tesla simply makes great cars. I would love to see a stat of Tesla owners who would be willing to go back to what they drove before. It must be really low.

I was at a car rally last weekend at a local school and a Teacher/friend asked me to bring my wife's X. Picture a bunch of vintage cars, a bunch of tricked-out muscle cars, and one model X. Except for males between 25 and 30 the X had all the human traffic. Women, young men, older men - all wanted to talk Tesla. It was aspirational for many already. I was shocked frankly. Interestingly the muscle car owners were well aware that my wife's big 5 passenger SUV could out accelerate any of their cars.

The only short thesis that makes sense to me is if you truly believe that Tesla cannot sell cars for more than they cost to produce. I don't believe that for a minute.

Anyway as long as Tesla's values/goals are well aligned with mine they will continue to get my investment $, purchasing $ and support.

I had a similar thing happen at a car show here last summer. I'm not interested in car shows at all. A friend who had a classic car in the show convinced me to bring down my Model S. All the rest were classic cars. People went crazy over my car - especially kids. Many people told me a Tesla is their dream car. Kids especially loved it. Many were asking about the apps, etc. I'm in a very conservative part of a conservative state. After this experience, I realized just how successful Tesla has been thus far.

 

[pz1975]

I would love to see a stat of Tesla owners who would be willing to go back to what they drove before. It must be really low.

Car Brands Ranked by Owner Satisfaction

Spoiler: Tesla comes first among all brands in ownership satisfaction with 90%.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

It's more extreme than that; even people who are actually complaining about the car won't go back to what they drove before. "Once you go electric you won't go back". While I've encountered a few people who strove to replace their Tesla with a Bolt or an Ioniq Electric, even they were mostly deterred by the lack of fast charging and shortage of available cars due to low production by the other companies.



I still get people stopping me on the street to ask about my *five year old* car. It is the aspirational car for practically everyone who's heard of it.

This is why Tesla is gonna win. Kids in my back alley (downtown Toronto - they don't look like much, but these are 1M+ houses):

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Shorts should be extremely concerned IMO, because they are betting against Hamiltonian archetypes. As an investor on any side, we can only sit back and wait for it. The people at Tesla are largely in control of what happens. They aren’t waiting for it.

[Burr:]
Hamilton faces an endless uphill climb
[Ensemble:]
Climb
Climb
Climb
[Burr:]
He has something to prove
He has nothing to lose
[Ensemble:]
Lose
Lose
Lose
Lose
[Burr:]
Hamilton's pace is relentless
He wastes no time
[Ensemble:]
Time
Time
Time
[Burr:]
What is it like in his shoes?

Hamilton doesn't hesitate
He exhibits no restraint
He takes and he takes and he takes
And he keeps winning anyway
He changes the game
He plays and he raises the stakes
And if there's a reason
He seems to thrive when so few survive, then Goddamnit

[Burr and Company:]
I'm willing to wait for it (wait for it, wait for...)
I'm willing to wait for it...

 

[MikeC]

I have a question for people with Model 3 deposits.


Can I ask you why you have a deposit down for a model 3 at this point?

Do you think you will be able to benefit from the FIT Credit or maybe get in before the FIT credit goes away?

Do you do it for moral reasons? Just a big believer in Tesla and want to show your support?

Why wouldnt you wait until the production level is up so you can actually buy one and get it quickly instead of laying out cash fora long period of time (and its not refundable in BK)



Very curious what the purpose is to have a deposit down as of now, especially if you plan on buying a sub 40k version of the model 3. I would love to start a thread on this, but it would probably be deleted.



I honestly feel bad if some of you never get your money back

Very simple. The sooner you put a deposit, the sooner you get the car. You obviously don't get one more quickly by waiting until everyone who lines up gets theirs first while you wait for yours.

What you may not understand is that Tesla customers are not bears, so we don't see everything from an overly pessimistic perspective. If I wasn't scared of losing my $5000 Model S deposit in 2012 or X deposit in 2015, I'm sure not worried about a $1000 deposit in 2018.

 

[hacer]

ok, i agree on calling the M3 a disaster is unnecessary, wont do that anymore


but SCTY WAS a bailout, it's fairly well documented at this point. Are Tesla fans really of the opinion that it wasnt?

Would you call the US fighting in Europe in WWII a bailout of the UK, France, etc.?

There's actually decent parallelism with what you call a "bailout" of SCTY: both were perfectly viable left to their own devices, both were beneficial entities and were under attack from totally immoral people. Today it's obvious that there has been quite large financial benefits to the USA for what we did in Europe in WWII. Similarly, Tesla absolutely will benefit in the long run from its acquisition of SCTY.

 

[neroden]

Shorts should be extremely concerned IMO, because they are betting against Hamiltonian archetypes. As an investor on any side, we can only sit back and wait for it. The people at Tesla are largely in control of what happens. They aren’t waiting for it.

[Burr:]
Hamilton faces an endless uphill climb
[Ensemble:]
Climb
Climb
Climb
[Burr:]
He has something to prove
He has nothing to lose
[Ensemble:]
Lose
Lose
Lose
Lose
[Burr:]
Hamilton's pace is relentless
He wastes no time
[Ensemble:]
Time
Time
Time
[Burr:]
What is it like in his shoes?

Hamilton doesn't hesitate
He exhibits no restraint
He takes and he takes and he takes
And he keeps winning anyway
He changes the game
He plays and he raises the stakes
And if there's a reason
He seems to thrive when so few survive, then Goddamnit

[Burr and Company:]
I'm willing to wait for it (wait for it, wait for...)
I'm willing to wait for it...

I like it. I must mention, however, that Jefferson defeated the Federalists, and Gallatin's policies replaced Hamilton's. Jefferson then established one-party rule in the US for 28 years, during the start of which he had 2/3 majorities of both houses of Congress and could essentially do whatever he wanted.

Thankfully I think Musk is more like Jefferson than like Hamilton

 

[Mobius484]

I had a similar thing happen at a car show here last summer. I'm not interested in car shows at all. A friend who had a classic car in the show convinced me to bring down my Model S. All the rest were classic cars. People went crazy over my car - especially kids. Many people told me a Tesla is their dream car. Kids especially loved it. Many were asking about the apps, etc. I'm in a very conservative part of a conservative state. After this experience, I realized just how successful Tesla has been thus far.

Yes, I’m nearby skitown I believe, and as I’ve toured the northwest in my MS the last couple years, I am amazed at how interested people are at my car and the super chargers... I go to some remote places too, and have conversations with farmers and rural type and also urban type. have had many interesting conversations... the younger generation certainly seems to recognize the car and know more. In general I think that in the next year, we will see Tesla crushing it. All these Tesla killers and stuff I’ve read about, great! The percentage of market share of ice vs BEV, people should be taking about ice killers not Tesla killers... Tesla just makes the best product and supporting infrastructure, people just don’t know it yet.... good luck reality... learn more about how Elon operates space x and you will understand more of what the “reality” is.....

 

[MXWing]

Did @Reality ever provide any proof of his positions and if they were meaningful?

I'm pitching my own tent in anticipation of what happens to him and others who did not cover with the ample warning provided.

 

[JoaoD]

Amazingly Mark Speigel has called it quits and appears to be one of the smarter shorts. Let's see how smart Reality is. Being here to test his ideas suggests he may be one of the smarter ones.

Mark Speigel was forced to close his position and invested the rest that he had in options that will most probably expire worthless. If he is one of the smartest shorts it really puts other shorts in a really bad position

 

[Reality]

Did @Reality ever provide any proof of his positions and if they were meaningful?

I'm pitching my own tent in anticipation of what happens to him and others who did not cover with the ample warning provided.

They are meaningful and im down a bit as of now. Overall i have a pretty good entry mostly because the majority of my position are 2020 and some late 2019 puts and if you have followed the price of those they are up significantly on the year. However I also have a large amount of shares short. Im not sure why you would doubt this as I am not posting here just for fun or even to troll.


With all that said, I truly have become fascinated with this place, and the Tesla fans. I am all for people having stuff they enjoy and support, but many people here remind me of Trump supporters. It does not matter what Trump does, his supporters will always make excuses for him.

Its the same with this place and Tesla/Elon. Elon lies, he lies a lot, it is fairly obvious that he lies. Shorts have been "burned" a bit but we know we are on the right side of the trade, however admittedly it is weird because I think a big piece of what we dont understand is the fan base.


First off, I want to say that the MOdel S is a very cool car, eventually its novelty will wear off but all in all it is extremely cool both in appearance and performance. Also being the first true electric sports car. I believe it will go down in history as a positive. I believe it will have an asterisk next to it, but I dont want you to think im 'against' Tesla in the EV sense, im against them in the fraud/poor investment sense.




Short theory #1: Tesla can't make money selling the cars that it sells

Proof: mountain of losses and continued losses, financial engineering to try and achieve one quarter of profitability is required. A constant string of "we wont need to raise money again". When was it, in Q3 or 4 of 2016 when he said they wouldnt need to raise for the Model 3 but might anyways, something like that. THey did THREE raises in the following 12 months and are still very close to insolvent. Even the most aggressive of models knew they had to raise yet he just lied.

Still, the stock went up



Short theory #2: Tesla skipped PPAP for the M3 and it will result in a disasterour ramp and poor quality product.

Argue this all you want, but the issues with the M3 are piling up. MIsaligned Panels, mismatching paint, service center issues the list goes on and on. I am not making these up, they are right here on TMC

Manufacturing Issues on my Model 3

Delivery flaw, scratch on inside of interior windshield

Pretty sure the "Tesla service centers are becoming the worse" thread in the main forum was merged (possibly to hide the negative title).


Still, the stock goes up



Short theory #3 Tesla cannot service it's debt


It can't, as of now it cannot service its debt. Everyone including EM is praying the stock stays above 359 through march 2019 because that 900m due is cash tesla will not have by then. The debt load is becoming un maneageable and rated in the junk category because it is so risky. Bondholders are usually more educated that shareholders, typically. Yet somehow Tesla stock and bond yield are moving int he same direction, which is nuts.



Short theory #4 Tesla uses questionable accounting practices to inflate auto gross margin


They dont cap R&D, which is allowed but not industry standard. Look at Ford's financials, they have no R&D, because they cap it to inventory and put through COGS. If you put Tesla RD into COGS what happens to the gross margin story they constantly flaunt as how they become profitable?

Also, most bears believe they are shoving as many auto costs as they can into service centers to avoid auto GM (part of the reason you see so many 'goodwill' repairs instead of warranty repairs)


Also, this isnt accounting trickery, but Tesla operates without dealerships. I dont want to argue if thats a benefit or not, i might even admit it is. The thing is other car manufacturers take roughly 10% off sales price and allocate it to dealerships, its why GM and ford have 7% SGA costs as % of revenues and Tesla has 18%+. Drop that 10% of revenue what happens to margin?

They are gaming people into a story that doesnt add up.




That is just a taste of the short thesis. Bulls are like "Ya but the cars are great to drive!". We know that, we dont disagree with that, they are fun to drive because they are EV. That is the irony in all of that, EV being fun to drive isnt unique to Tesla.


The fact that EV cars are better than ICE cars is why Tesla is dead. They have no advantage that isnt innate to EV cars.


I hope that answers your questions

 

[Reality]

One other thing, most bears think Tesla is a cult. I kind of agree. I mean there is a kickstarter for Elon to buy him a bed.

You can't tell me that isnt weird.