Hi, I’m a short seller

[Reality]

This appears to contradict some of the info in your linked thread: Tesla’s Fremont Factory Expansion: 2 Years and $51.3 Million Spent Since Master Plan Part 2 Published

I'm not quite sure how to reconcile both, but it does appear that paint shop capacity has been added post 2016.

Certainly everything is to be taken with a grain of salt


but if someone looks at a year ago and the claims of "Alien Dreadnaught" and now looks at "Actually, we are building it in a tent" and thinks this was the plan, well things like this start looking a lot more sinister.

 

[ggr]

This appears to contradict some of the info in your linked thread: Tesla’s Fremont Factory Expansion: 2 Years and $51.3 Million Spent Since Master Plan Part 2 Published

I'm not quite sure how to reconcile both, but it does appear that paint shop capacity has been added post 2016.

This discussion came up somewhere, somewhen, about a year ago. IIRC, the paint shop approval was expanded to 450-500k/yr at least a year ago. Too hard for me to find the actual reference, unfortunately.

 

[Henchman]

More shorts, more Squeeze. The dumber the better. I am pulling for Lora to really drive up the short interest. I am starting to thing this is not Big Oil but rather Big Finance. They are positioning for a short squeeze and probably playing both sides of this FOMO stock. Smart dudes. They pay fudsters to lure in shorts, its really brilliant if you think about it. They can totally hide behind all the big oil and auto industry that wants to kill Tesla.

The reason I think this way? Because you would have to be utterly stupid to think this company could go BK. Its as ridiculous as anything I have ever heard. The arguments are so dumb, as if to set a trap a for the less educated masses that wont know how to get out before its to late. Lack of demand? Deposits required for orders? Cash Burn! is the best because its really stupid. Tesla is buying hardware, thus cash is turned into assets, cash burn is buying advertising like GM.

More shorts please.

It is funny.
Because indeed, there is absolutely no way this company is ever going bankrupt.

 

[dondy]

Do you think that single burst rate be sustainable Q3? Will they do 6k end of Q3?

I was going to explain how to count properly VINs (it's easy actually) but I won't. Sorry guys.
Tesla should have at least 45k+ M3 made in 2018. It looks like the last 2 weeks were above 5000s. The real bottleneck was Gigafactory, apparently they fixed that. I see no real reason to doubt Tesla's production in the range of 5000-6000 per month. This Sprung structure has temporary permit, the line which is there is responsible for around 1000-2000/w. I wonder what are they going to do next with it.

 

[dondy]

That's what they said about Japanese cars in the 1960s. They'll be imported. Don't be stupid.

BYD and Geely are both serious about EV production, they're not just doing it to comply with Chinese government mandates, they're doing it as a moral choice (for BYD) or a strategic choice (for Geely).

Both companies build ICE cars. Both companies build electrical autos just to cover required 10%, you can just see in the production numbers. Both companies have major clients gov and private companies which are required to have specific percentage of electrical autos. According to my german friends who work in China the chance of seeing electrical auto in China is actually less than in Germany (which is not much).

About comparison of modern Chinese cars with Japanese of years 60s.
Japan had very serious problem with producing high quality steel due to chronic shortage of additives. When they found sufficient source of chrome and other necessary metals (mostly in Russia if I recall well) the problem was solved. They had home designed autos since 1920s, most importantly Japan is doing very serious investment in the high tech fields since the beginning of modernization. Japan is the name in electrical measurement equipment since 1960s, and in optics since 1950s. MBA courses everywhere study "japan lessons" in management. When MBA schools will introduce similar lessons about China you can wake me up.
China has very serious conceptual problem with producing high tech stuff in volumes.

 

[skitown]

China has very serious conceptual problem with producing high tech stuff in volumes.

I don't know what that means. I would consider solar panels, or say smartphones to be 'high tech'. Perhaps you can elaborate.

 

[dondy]

LOl, solar panels are just freaking PCBs with some silicon based arigami in fancy package. there is nothing sophisticated about them beside the type of silicone and the amount of Se, and of course the type of the chemical cover you choose. All chinese products I've seen are copies, most are not even good in it. Production of smartphones is not really sophisticated either. You print pcbs using european printers, you populated them using taiwanese robots, you install everything together using young chinese hands. What's so sophisticated about it? Building power-trains with the tolerance of few mkm (so they survive 500k km) is sophisticated, building properly engines is sophisticated, understanding the importance of keeping chemical formula is sophisticated. Do you know why all these scandals with "Chinese toys" happened? Do you think the chinese used dangerous paints because they were cheaper? They used them because they were available and in the eyes of Chinese engineers were "the same". You have no idea how many european and american engineers got fired because they failed to explain to their chinese colleagues the relativity of the word "equivalent".

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I'm a long term bull and have been investing and trading Tesla since 2012. I love TMC for the detailed analysis that is done, the finances, the news gathering and analysis etc. But one thing I've not really liked is the positive echo chamber and confirmation bias that we've had many times during excellent run ups only to be burned by it when we didn't listen to some news items coming in (I was burned as well in 2014 when we ran to 280 very fast).

So I do welcome the short thesis representatives to the board and I think of those Reality is the best behaving one, that actually has rational thought and discussions and seems to be able to admit when he's been wrong. He's 90% of the time civil and while I've been reading the discussions both here and on the q2-q4 financials threads I'd say that he gets far too much bashing in terms of personal insults and "well load up and go and burn" type of posts.

Yes I don't agree with his thesis and guesstimates either. I think Tesla is going to be great, GAAP positive and will grow like nuts in the next decades, but I do want to hear the other side of the trade, get some thoughts on why they think it like that and occasionally maybe glean a warning before the generic market that may indeed impact the trading in short or long term. So my recommendation is that at least lets keep the civil shorts here and let's turn down the bashing and insults, it reflects badly on us longs, not that much on the shorts. Let's act like educated adults and argue with the facts, points and possibly opinions, but not by insulting the person or wording.

Thanks again Reality for showing and explaining your thesis here, I think opposing views should have a spot even if it's mostly concentrated into just one thread here and I do like that you debate with luvb2b and others on the financials and have different models, the more data and facts there are the better our overall modeling. And who knows, maybe we'll make a long of you still

 

[Mader Levap]

I've never seen him admitting to be wrong in his core thesises(sp?), just goalpost moving (like with whole "omg they will eventually run out of reservations = bankwupt" nonsense).

 

[Electroman]

I hate the moving of goal posts.

They will never make a single 3
They will never make in volume
There will never be market for this
This thing costs more than they sell for
They will never be profitable.
The more the sell the more they lose
Everyone of them is of poor quality.

As Tesla proves them wrong one after the other - the shorts seamlessly move onto the next one without even acknowledging what Tesla has achieved so far in the M3 space.

For over two years there was steady drum beat that Gigafactory is a hoax. Then started the chorus of FUD that M3 will never be made. After that they can never make 5k a week. And now the FUD that they don’t have permit for painting 5k cars.

The exaggerations and lies is one thing, but switching seamlessly to the next one without acknowledging the last one they have been wrong - is what annoys the bulls.

And in a way the bulls do the same thing too - Musk makes outlandish claims that he will make 200k M3 in 2017 and half a million in 2019. FSD demo by year end.

Come on. I am fanboi but even I know he is being unrealistically optimistic (which the bears quite rightly call lying). But the bulls repeat those outlandish claims ad nauseam and the stock pops. And when Tesla can’t make it, bulls ignore them as if Musk never made those claims.

 

[cpa]

I've never seen him admitting to be wrong in his core thesises(sp?), just goalpost moving (like with whole "omg they will eventually run out of reservations = bankwupt" nonsense).

Good guess! Thesis is Greek; we kept the Greek plural structure. So, the plural is theses.

But I sorta like thesises!

 

[Pezpunk]

stock is up about 17% since the creation of this thread.

 

[ProtomanX]

To all short seller, better strap yourself to a chair. It's gonna be a crazy ride today

 

[UnknownSoldier]

stock is up about 17% since the creation of this thread.

It's about to go up a lot more

 

[Reality]

I'm a long term bull and have been investing and trading Tesla since 2012. I love TMC for the detailed analysis that is done, the finances, the news gathering and analysis etc. But one thing I've not really liked is the positive echo chamber and confirmation bias that we've had many times during excellent run ups only to be burned by it when we didn't listen to some news items coming in (I was burned as well in 2014 when we ran to 280 very fast).

So I do welcome the short thesis representatives to the board and I think of those Reality is the best behaving one, that actually has rational thought and discussions and seems to be able to admit when he's been wrong. He's 90% of the time civil and while I've been reading the discussions both here and on the q2-q4 financials threads I'd say that he gets far too much bashing in terms of personal insults and "well load up and go and burn" type of posts.

Yes I don't agree with his thesis and guesstimates either. I think Tesla is going to be great, GAAP positive and will grow like nuts in the next decades, but I do want to hear the other side of the trade, get some thoughts on why they think it like that and occasionally maybe glean a warning before the generic market that may indeed impact the trading in short or long term. So my recommendation is that at least lets keep the civil shorts here and let's turn down the bashing and insults, it reflects badly on us longs, not that much on the shorts. Let's act like educated adults and argue with the facts, points and possibly opinions, but not by insulting the person or wording.

Thanks again Reality for showing and explaining your thesis here, I think opposing views should have a spot even if it's mostly concentrated into just one thread here and I do like that you debate with luvb2b and others on the financials and have different models, the more data and facts there are the better our overall modeling. And who knows, maybe we'll make a long of you still

Hey thanks man, given the stock is up $20 pre market, i definitely needed something to brighten my day.


I genuinely think Tesla Bulls are good people whose heart is in the right place. I also think most truly believe they are investing in something that is going to help the future.


One thing that really hurts is that IF Tesla goes under, it's probably going to set back the EV industry 10x more than the effect it's had bringing it forward (altho imo neither of those are going to matter much in the long run). Simply because people will say "it cant work, look at Tesla" and ignore all the warning signs that Tesla was simply a poorly run company that had a good idea that a lot of good people can connect with on a personal/moral level. It will also likely set back many of the most ardent EV supporters financially so much that they are possibly unlikely to invest significantly in EV's going forward. If I dislike Elon for any single thing the most. It will likely end up being that.

 

[Reality]

I've never seen him admitting to be wrong in his core thesises(sp?), just goalpost moving (like with whole "omg they will eventually run out of reservations = bankwupt" nonsense).

i was wrong to short in the low 2s because i misunderstood how this stock trades on sentiment more than fundamentals



It's weird, but the bulls constantly accuse the bears of stuff that only bulls do. Bears dont move goalposts, we didnt set the 5k per week stuff for the end of 2017. We didnt say Model Y in 2019 then walk it back. We didnt promise battery swapping then never follow through. We didnt launch Solar roofs 18 months ago and never bring it to the mass market.

We didnt do any of those things, we said tesla cant be profitable because they dont know how to make cars efficiently. We said that if a company that produces 100k cars cant turn a profit on them with a monopoly, how will they with a 50k car under intense competition? WE said their accounting methods are misleading and their CEO seems to "Accidentally" mislead quite often.

None of that is goal post moving.

 

[JonathanD]

We said that if a company that produces 100k cars cant turn a profit on them with a monopoly, how will they with a 50k car under intense competition?

They are disrupting an industry with one of the highest barriers to entry and you think they have a monopoly? Before Tesla the premium EV segment didn't even exist. They had to make the market with a vision and steal share away from an industry with a 100-year head start. That's about the farthest thing from a monopoly possible.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

One thing that really hurts is that IF Tesla goes under, it's probably going to set back the EV industry 10x more than the effect it's had bringing it forward (altho imo neither of those are going to matter much in the long run). Simply because people will say "it cant work, look at Tesla" and ignore all the warning signs that Tesla was simply a poorly run company that had a good idea that a lot of good people can connect with on a personal/moral level.

I believe that was the preamble to Henry Ford's biography.

EVs are running at 5% share in China, more than doubling every year. The war is already over.

 

[Reality]

Before Tesla the premium EV segment didn't even exist.

That's about the farthest thing from a monopoly possible.

It is literally exactly a monopoly, an unprofitable monopoly, but a monopoly.

 

[Yggdrasill]

It is literally exactly a monopoly, an unprofitable monopoly, but a monopoly.

Tesla has never had a monopoly on large premium cars. This is a mistake many people do, assuming that the BEV market is a separate market from the ICE market. However, it's certainly true that BEVs have significant competitive advantages over ICE vehicles, which is why it may seem like a separate market, and it's also why every BEV that is brought to market at a compelling price will quickly be sold out.

There is electric competition coming, but there's no meaningful volume planned:

2018, Jaguar i-Pace, ~20k/year, Model Y competitor
2019, Audi e-tron, ~30k/year, Model X competitor
2019, Mercedes EQC, ~30k/year (?), Model Y competitor
2020, Audi e-tron Sportback, ~30k/year, Model S competitor
2020, (Volvo) Polestar 2, ~20k/year, Model 3 competitor
2020, BMW iX3, ~50k/year (?), Model Y competitor
2020, Porsche Taycan, ~20k/year, Model S competitor

Currently, BMW + Mercedes + Audi+ Lexus + Porsche + Infiniti + Jaguar + Volvo ++ sells roughly 8.5 million cars per year.

Even counting Tesla and all the competitors coming until 2020, adding up to ~1 million cars with 83% being Tesla, the BEVs will only have reached a ~12% market share, and there would still be plenty of room to grow.