The market is/was premium sedans and SUVS in the $75-100k price range. Having an electric drivetrain does not mean it isn't competing against BMW and Mercedes. If anything their job was made harder because they had to convince consumers of the viability of their technology.
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Hi, I’m a short seller
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The market is/was premium sedans and SUVS in the $75-100k price range. Having an electric drivetrain does not mean it isn't competing against BMW and Mercedes. If anything their job was made harder because they had to convince consumers of the viability of their technology.
It definitely competes, so ill admit maybe not a pure monopoly in that sense, but the smartest thing Tesla ever did was attack the high end premium market since no EVs existed for that market at the time. It was, for the most part, a monopoly.
By that logic Ford is a Monopoly because they have a monopoly on F150s.
What the S/X have thoroughly demonstrated is desire for the new thing for buyers with disposable income. This effect should continue to spread as more Teslas are sold. Other EV makers should also benefit from all the new Teslas driving around. While Tesla undoubtedly looses sales because of conservative buyers' concern about the technology I don't believe this is an impediment to growth. The impediment is the time and capital necessary to meet medium term demand. If cars were like consumer electronics being supply constrained would be an easily correctable problem.
Krugerrand
Meow
It’s an orange sort of because it is but it’s really an apple because it’s not an orange. But still an orange.
jelloslug
Active Member
You literally have no idea what a monopoly is.
Yeah, I was previously thinking that Reality was a finance guy. But no econ 101 on his CV.
Mader Levap
Member
...and then you proceed to do exactly that in subsequent "Tesla totally is monopoly except when it isn't" discussion.
Hilarious.
Good, now we can argue about whether it is profitable to sell MS/MX...
Ok. now that the monopoly education is over, let's educate on stock price fundamentals.
What do you think, as succinctly as possible, is the most important "fundamental" that should drive the stock price? (as opposed to "sentiment").
What do you think, as succinctly as possible, is the most important "fundamental" that should drive the stock price? (as opposed to "sentiment").
Learning a lot from your posts:
If bankruptcy hits before Jan 2020 how do you see it playing out?
What price action do you expect leading up to the end?
Jan 2020 $20 puts pay out 15:1 now, would you consider this the strongest play assuming the thesis of bankruptcy > 30% before then plays out?
Tesla's not going bankrupt any time soon without an economic recession. Also, what does profitability have to do with bankruptcy? Tesla needs adequate liquidity to service its debt and run its business.
Tesla's primary problem is their lack of ability to scale rapidly to exploit the demand for their products. Neither shorts or longs want to recognize this condition. Shorts would need to admit that Tesla has designed highly desirable products and has a valuable core business. Longs would need to acknowledge Musk's lack of skill at managing manufacturing.
Tesla's primary problem is their lack of ability to scale rapidly to exploit the demand for their products. Neither shorts or longs want to recognize this condition. Shorts would need to admit that Tesla has designed highly desirable products and has a valuable core business. Longs would need to acknowledge Musk's lack of skill at managing manufacturing.
So Tesla's problem is that they should be bigger? I'm cool with that.
It's been a rough year, but it seems like they are doing ok now. Doubling 3 production in a quarter seems like a good growth rate, 7k/wk vs 2k/wk a year ago is over triple. If they get to 8k/wk in Q3, that is practically a 4x gain YoY. If they want to make more 3s in other countries, they can duplicate the best parts of the current lines in GF3 and GF4 and double or triple again.
So Tesla's problem is that they should be bigger? I'm cool with that.
It's been a rough year, but it seems like they are doing ok now. Doubling 3 production in a quarter seems like a good growth rate, 7k/wk vs 2k/wk a year ago is over triple. If they get to 8k/wk in Q3, that is practically a 4x gain YoY. If they want to make more 3s in other countries, they can duplicate the best parts of the current lines in GF3 and GF4 and double or triple again.
SP beyond 2020 will largely be determined by Teslas ability to exploit its advantages. Musk is weak at understanding and managing the mundane day to day reality of the non-tech part of his businesses. This is not only true at Tesla but was true at SolarCity. It was also true at SpaceX as of a couple of years ago.
Good production functioning is mundane and predictable.
well, that is an impossible question to answer since "fundamentals" is a group of items that together make up a set of facts that predict the future viability of a company. So I guess the simplest answer would be forecasted future cash flows.
As for non-subjective data, i would say the balance sheet is the single most important piece of basic information.
There is a saying "Amateurs ask for income statements, pros lask for balance sheets"
I think those particular puts are too expensive.
I think the Tesla BK (IF IT HAPPENS) will be fairly quick and fast. I think buying way OTM Nov Puts and June 19 puts makes more sense
Nov because if the 10-Q for 3Q doesnt show profitability, then i think the stock price craters
The June 2019 puts are after the March 900m in debt is due. Which I think might be the nail in the coffin.
I dont really think using spreads or anything makes sense with Tesla, you are playing for the home runs not the singles on the bear side. We dont think the stock is going to go down 10%, we think it is going to crater to 0. Literally worthless.
However, just a straight short is a pretty sensible play if you have the capital and set up a loose stop (mine is set at 399)
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
You really, really, REALLY underestimate ability of Tesla to raise money. Heck, if they came here to TMC, I'll bet you they raise $50M. Your concern isn't bordering on naive, it's plain naive. You just haven't read enough on this company to understand all instruments and friends they can tap into for capital raise. They burned couple of $B already, what is another $900M?
Of all issues that Tesla has, this is the least worrisome to me. For example, I'm a lot more concerned with Elon burning out people that work for him, even trusted lieutenants. For now, mission and sexy-ness of the company is what allows him to find new talent, but his inability to retain great execs is huge weakness.
Wow you got it right. Very good. Sometimes phrased as discounted or risk-adjusted future cash flows.
I thought for sure you would say something like EPS or EBITDA or some other multiple or fundamental based on historical financials. That is what you always seem most focused on.
My point is that discounted future cash flows is all about the future, not the past. It is about estimate and projections and assumptions about future financial results and not at all about past historical balance sheets or historical P&Ls.
What in Amazon’s past early financial statements predicted its massive future cash flow now? Nothing in the financials — it was noticing that Amazon and Bezos were relentlessly focused on the customer satisfaction and market share and were happy to sacrifice short term financial performance to build a platform to generate massive staggering future cash flows. Musk is trying the same thing.
One of us misestimates their ability to raise for sure. Might be you, might be me.
Do you know what Tesla 2025 bonds are yielding right now? Over 7%, that is the equivalent of pure junk.
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