Highest production VIN in the wild

[McHoffa]

Hmmm.... we're not tracking too far away from my predictions from back in June. I had called for a cumulative of 1600 cars built by end of November.

I sure hope the ramp up isn't that slow. Considering they were supposed to be 5k per week in December, and Elon said they would still reach thousands per week in December, or mid January at the latest. Of course, since I'm not getting it this year, I will have to wait a few months anyway.

 

[KarenRei]

I sure hope the ramp up isn't that slow. Considering they were supposed to be 5k per week in December, and Elon said they would still reach thousands per week in December, or mid January at the latest. Of course, since I'm not getting it this year, I will have to wait a few months anyway.

The latest guidance was 5k per week at the end of Q1 2018. And this was rather expected. Have you not been following the ramp progression?

 

[mongo]

I sure hope the ramp up isn't that slow. Considering they were supposed to be 5k per week in December, and Elon said they would still reach thousands per week in December, or mid January at the latest. Of course, since I'm not getting it this year, I will have to wait a few months anyway.

Production line can only go as fast as the slowest process. If they are waiting on a new piece of equipment, it should be more of a step than a ramp (Elon alluded to than in Q3 call). Supercalifragilisticexponentialdocious.
[checks that this isn't an investing forum]
Sing it with me:
Super: awesome
Cali: where the cans are made
Fragil: The mental state of the shorts
Is tic: what shorts say about their twitch
Exponential: Shape of ramp curve
Do!: What Homer says when you launch a P100DL
Cious: What Tesla does to doubters.

To paraphrase Casablanca:
If that train leaves and you're not on it, you'll regret it. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of your life.

Speaking of trains, I apologize for the derailment.

 

[McHoffa]

The latest guidance was 5k per week at the end of Q1 2018. And this was rather expected. Have you not been following the ramp progression?

Yes, which is why I said that Elon said they would still reach thousands per week in December or mid January at the latest (per the Q3 earnings call) but @sandpiper predicted 5k per week in June 2018, which is why I said I hope the ramp up isn't that slow

 

[McHoffa]

Production line can only go as fast as the slowest process. If they are waiting on a new piece of equipment, it should be more of a step than a ramp (Elon alluded to than in Q3 call). Supercalifragilisticexponentialdocious.
[checks that this isn't an investing forum]
Sing it with me:
Super: awesome
Cali: where the cans are made
Fragil: The mental state of the shorts
Is tic: what shorts say about their twitch
Exponential: Shape of ramp curve
Do!: What Homer says when you launch a P100DL
Cious: What Tesla does to doubters.

To paraphrase Casablanca:
If that train leaves and you're not on it, you'll regret it. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of your life.

Speaking of trains, I apologize for the derailment.

I've been waiting for this train to leave for 11.5 years... I think I'm ok with waiting a couple more months!

 

[tomas]

Ok VIN experts help me out here. If the year field in VIN is model year, then it is meaningless for purpose of IRS and there’s no possible problem with VINs allocated for 17 being used in 18 or vice versa. Because model year is an arbitrary thing decided by manufacturer. You could buy an 18 model year of some cars in May 17! If on the other hand it is production year, then I’d guess allocations must be used in correct year, and IRS could clearly challenge someone taking a 17 credit on an 18 car. Which is it?

 

[mongo]

Ok VIN experts help me out here. If the year field in VIN is model year, then it is meaningless for purpose of IRS and there’s no possible problem with VINs allocated for 17 being used in 18 or vice versa. Because model year is an arbitrary thing decided by manufacturer. You could buy an 18 model year of some cars in May 17! If on the other hand it is production year, then I’d guess allocations must be used in correct year, and IRS could clearly challenge someone taking a 17 credit on an 18 car. Which is it?

IRS cares about:
when the car was placed in service (tax year)
how many vehicles the manufacturer produced for sale in the US (credit taper schedule)
VIN (to prevent double dipping)

There is no tie between the credit and when the car was made. If the credit has run out, you can't claim it on a 2016 new inventory car. In other words, it's order of claiming, not order of making.

 

[sandpiper]

Yes, which is why I said that Elon said they would still reach thousands per week in December or mid January at the latest (per the Q3 earnings call) but @sandpiper predicted 5k per week in June 2018, which is why I said I hope the ramp up isn't that slow

I hope it isn't that slow myself. But I've been through a bunch of production ramp-ups myself, and I know how these things tend to go. Its a painful iterative process of knocking out one bottleneck, which exposes a few others. And knocking out those exposes others. And so on...

The fact that Tesla (reputedly) installed a lot of systems that hadn't been fully shop tested means that the headaches are going to be more than typical. Add to that a totally new, inexperienced, workforce at the gigafactory, and you have a recipe for a really difficult ramp up.

I still think I'm pretty close to what we'll see.

 

[ElecFan]

Hmmm.... we're not tracking too far away from my predictions from back in June. I had called for a cumulative of 1600 cars built by end of November.

If it's going that slow (5k/wk july), we might after all see Tesla reach 200,000 US vehicles in Q2. Or not?

 

[McHoffa]

If it's going that slow (5k/wk july), we might after all see Tesla reach 200,000 US vehicles in Q2. Or not?

I would say that's only possible if the Model 3 continues to drip out slowly like it has been all the way through the end of March AND S/X sales are flat or lower. Not even counting any Model 3 sales, we'll be pretty close to 200k by the end of March. ~170k by end of the year not counting Model 3, 185k by end of Q1 not counting Model 3. We're probably looking at near 2000 Model 3s by end of year without any ramp, so they'd have to deliver less than 13k Model 3s in the entire Q1 to not cross 200k. That's less than 1000/week average for the whole quarter. Possible, but not good for any of us if that happens.

 

[tomas]

IRS cares about:
when the car was placed in service (tax year)
how many vehicles the manufacturer produced for sale in the US (credit taper schedule)
VIN (to prevent double dipping)

There is no tie between the credit and when the car was made. If the credit has run out, you can't claim it on a 2016 new inventory car. In other words, it's order of claiming, not order of making.

Not what I asked!

 

[mongo]

Not what I asked!

Ok VIN experts help me out here. If the year field in VIN is model year, then it is meaningless for purpose of IRS and there’s no possible problem with VINs allocated for 17 being used in 18 or vice versa. Because model year is an arbitrary thing decided by manufacturer. You could buy an 18 model year of some cars in May 17! If on the other hand it is production year, then I’d guess allocations must be used in correct year, and IRS could clearly challenge someone taking a 17 credit on an 18 car. Which is it?

There is no yearly allocation for vehicles, so the VIN year does not matter. If the IRS requests proof, you show the title which has the date placed in service.
State incentives may be different.

Does that answer your question?

 

[dsvick]

Ok VIN experts help me out here. If the year field in VIN is model year, then it is meaningless for purpose of IRS and there’s no possible problem with VINs allocated for 17 being used in 18 or vice versa. Because model year is an arbitrary thing decided by manufacturer. You could buy an 18 model year of some cars in May 17! If on the other hand it is production year, then I’d guess allocations must be used in correct year, and IRS could clearly challenge someone taking a 17 credit on an 18 car. Which is it?

Model year doesn't matter as far as the tax credit. You claim the credit based on when you take delivery (the title is transferred) not on when the car was made. A model year 2015 Model S that, for some reason hadn't been sold, could be sold next week and the owner could use it to claim the tax credit.

In other words, it's order of claiming, not order of making.

Actually, it's not even about claiming since the credit begins to phase out after the 200,000th car is placed into service, regardless of whether or not the credit is claimed for it.

 

[mongo]

Actually, it's not even about claiming since the credit begins to phase out after the 200,000th car is placed into service, regardless of whether or not the credit is claimed for it.

Absolutely correct, my statement was off.
How's this: Time of claiming, not time of making?

 

[tomas]

There is no yearly allocation for vehicles, so the VIN year does not matter. If the IRS requests proof, you show the title which has the date placed in service.
State incentives may be different.

Does that answer your question?

No. I understand the IRS. My question is whether the year field in VIN is model year or year of manufacture.

 

[Zaphod]

No. I understand the IRS. My question is whether the year field in VIN is model year or year of manufacture.

It is model year, but as we know Tesla doesn't do model year. Therefore model year = year of manufacture.

 

[tomas]

It is model year, but as we know Tesla doesn't do model year. Therefore model year = year of manufacture.

Ok thanks. SO... one thing that means is for people sweating over whether the allocated 17 VIN numbers can be used in 18? Of course they can. Tesla gets to decide what car is what model year. Other thing: for people sweating that VIN is on tax credit form and could be used as evidence to ask for further corroboration of tax credit? No it shouldn’t. Because model year for most companies doesn’t correlate to Jan 1, that field is meaningless regarding tax credit... what is relevant is purely in service date, which would be corroborated by delivery of car and execution of delivery docs.

 

[Zaphod]

Ok thanks. SO... one thing that means is for people sweating over whether the allocated 17 VIN numbers can be used in 18? Of course they can. Tesla gets to decide what car is what model year. Other thing: for people sweating that VIN is on tax credit form and could be used as evidence to ask for further corroboration of tax credit? No it shouldn’t. Because model year for most companies doesn’t correlate to Jan 1, that field is meaningless regarding tax credit... what is relevant is purely in service date, which would be corroborated by delivery of car and execution of delivery docs.

Pretty sure all the IRS cares in requesting the VIN is to make sure that multiple people aren't claiming credits using the same VIN.

 

[RTPEV]

I would say that's only possible if the Model 3 continues to drip out slowly like it has been all the way through the end of March AND S/X sales are flat or lower. Not even counting any Model 3 sales, we'll be pretty close to 200k by the end of March. ~170k by end of the year not counting Model 3, 185k by end of Q1 not counting Model 3. We're probably looking at near 2000 Model 3s by end of year without any ramp, so they'd have to deliver less than 13k Model 3s in the entire Q1 to not cross 200k. That's less than 1000/week average for the whole quarter. Possible, but not good for any of us if that happens.

Not sure where your year-end 170K is coming from. The scenario I've laid out, which INCLUDES Model 3 sales, has Tesla at 160K at year-end. I assume 3145 Model 3's by year end and a still relatively healthy 2400 and 1865 Model S/X (repepctively) per month for November & December. Projecting out into the first quarter, and assuming a typical 20% 1Q dropoff in Model S/X sales, if Tesla diverts 5% extra Model S/X overseas as compared to normal, they will reach 200K around March 15 assuming a ramp somwhere in between what Elon predicted ("thousands"/week by year end) and the "official" party line of 5K/week by end of 1Q18. Specifically I am assuming 2K/week in January, 2 weeks of 2500/week in Feb, followed by ramp to 3000, 3500, 4000 and then 5000/week for March. Given this scenario, I think Tesla would either suspend sales for the final 2 weeks of March to cross 200K in the first week of April. Alternatively they could stockpile 1000 Model 3's per week for the quarter to avoid a complete shutdown of deliveries.

October 2017 US EV Sales Update | NOGA$4ME EV Blog

 

[shokunin]

Absolutely correct, my statement was off.
How's this: Time of claiming, not time of making?

The 200K limit counts on the number of US vehicles sold. The IRS has no idea how many will claim or apply for the credit since you have to wait for the tax year to be over to receive the tax credit.