Highest production VIN in the wild

[McHoffa]

Not sure where your year-end 170K is coming from. The scenario I've laid out, which INCLUDES Model 3 sales, has Tesla at 160K at year-end. I assume 3145 Model 3's by year end and a still relatively healthy 2400 and 1865 Model S/X (repepctively) per month for November & December. Projecting out into the first quarter, and assuming a typical 20% 1Q dropoff in Model S/X sales, if Tesla diverts 5% extra Model S/X overseas as compared to normal, they will reach 200K around March 15 assuming a ramp somwhere in between what Elon predicted ("thousands"/week by year end) and the "official" party line of 5K/week by end of 1Q18. Specifically I am assuming 2K/week in January, 2 weeks of 2500/week in Feb, followed by ramp to 3000, 3500, 4000 and then 5000/week for March. Given this scenario, I think Tesla would either suspend sales for the final 2 weeks of March to cross 200K in the first week of April. Alternatively they could stockpile 1000 Model 3's per week for the quarter to avoid a complete shutdown of deliveries.

October 2017 US EV Sales Update | NOGA$4ME EV Blog

Here’s one example from car and driver. They put the total at 150k in August. InsideEVs shows another 8k S+X in September and it should easily be another 12k+ in Q4 altogether. That’s 170k not counting however many Model 3s are delivered.

 

[mongo]

The 200K limit counts on the number of US vehicles sold. The IRS has no idea how many will claim or apply for the credit since you have to wait for the tax year to be over to receive the tax credit.

"Time of claiming" in terms of which quarter you put vehicle in service (when the credit is tapering off).
Good point that returns get filed at the same time.

 

[dhanson865]

Hmmm.... we're not tracking too far away from my predictions from back in June. I had called for a cumulative of 1600 cars built by end of November.

well we are way slower than what I predicted after reading yours

early August: 300 - the first cars completed almost entirely on the actual production line, with all going to employees
late August: 700 - employees
Month of September: 2500 - employees
Month of October: 5000 - employees and California
Month of November: 7000 - California
Month of December: 9000 - Start of general release just before new years to be able to say they got some outside of CA in 2017.
Mar 2018, they open up the extra battery pack option
April 2018 they open up the dual motor option
By May 2018, you'll see production of about 5,000 per week.

yep, you did better than I did in that thread.

I suppose every one can laugh at me being so optimistic. Even if they've built 2,000 by now that puts realities November up against my fantasy September.

I tried to call the "Start of general release just before new years to be able to say they got some outside of CA in 2017" but it turned out to be "Start of general release just before new years to be able to say they got some outside of employees in 2017".

aw heck the more I look at it the more wrong my whole post was. I guess my version is what would have happened if the battery packs weren't the bottleneck.

 

[sandpiper]

well we are way slower than what I predicted after reading yours



yep, you did better than I did in that thread.

I suppose every one can laugh at me being so optimistic. Even if they've built 2,000 by now that puts realities November up against my fantasy September.

I tried to call the "Start of general release just before new years to be able to say they got some outside of CA in 2017" but it turned out to be "Start of general release just before new years to be able to say they got some outside of employees in 2017".

aw heck the more I look at it the more wrong my whole post was. I guess my version is what would have happened if the battery packs weren't the bottleneck.

The interesting thing is that there is ALWAYS something that is unexpectedly screwed up. I don't know... it's like a law of nature. I'll bet that there were a lot of people in the main factory, secretly thankful for the problems at the GF that effectively hid the fact that a bunch of other systems at the main plant weren't ready either.

 

[RTPEV]

Here’s one example from car and driver. They put the total at 150k in August. InsideEVs shows another 8k S+X in September and it should easily be another 12k+ in Q4 altogether. That’s 170k not counting however many Model 3s are delivered.

The InsideEVs data should be highly trusted at least up to each quarter end (and I have pretty high confidence in their estimates as well). But look at what you did. You took the Car & Driver data which started out at 112K at the end of 2016 (accurate) and "estimates" 37K YTD (as of August). The problem is that this is not what InsideEVs data shows at the end of September even (which should be accurate at this point since they corrected the data with actual Tesla reported quarterly sales figures. Subtracting out October from your InsideEVs link, you have 19,630 Model S, 13,020 Model X and 222 Model 3, or 32,872 total. And this is based on Tesla reported numbers, so should be completely accurate. Add that to the 112K starting point, and you have 144,872 cumulative to date as of the end of September, not even August!

So what can they do in 4Q? Again, the assumptions that Car & Driver made appear to be based on Musk's statement that they'd be at 5K/week by the end of December. Hopefully we can agree that this plan is out the window at this point.

InsideEVs estimated only 1120 S and 850 X in October. It's fair to debate this. InsideEVs believes that the reason for the shortfall is that Tesla was piling cars for international sale in December. This makes a lot of sense to me as it will enable Tesla to have a great worldwide 4Q sales figure without putting them into a window where they would cross 200K mid-quarter, which would be silly for them to do. Regardless, while I tend to put quite a bit of faith in InsideEVs estimates, I have assumed that November and December sales of S and X will climb back up to probably quite optimistic rates. If we look at quarter by quarter results for those vehicles:

• 1Q17: S: 6100 X: 4300 Total: 10400
• 2Q17: S: 5096 X: 4655 Total: 9740
• 3Q17: S: 8435 X: 6345 3: 222 Total: 15002

My 4Q17 estimates are:

• 4Q17: S: 5924 X: 4587 3: 3145 Total: 13656

So I'm even higher than your 12K estimate, and still this puts them at only 160K by year-end, given the true 144.5K end of third quarter figure. I think it boils down to the bogus 37K through-August estimate that Car & Driver used to get your starting figure.

 

[sandpiper]

The InsideEVs data should be highly trusted at least up to each quarter end (and I have pretty high confidence in their estimates as well). But look at what you did. You took the Car & Driver data which started out at 112K at the end of 2016 (accurate) and "estimates" 37K YTD (as of August). The problem is that this is not what InsideEVs data shows at the end of September even (which should be accurate at this point since they corrected the data with actual Tesla reported quarterly sales figures. Subtracting out October from your InsideEVs link, you have 19,630 Model S, 13,020 Model X and 222 Model 3, or 32,872 total. And this is based on Tesla reported numbers, so should be completely accurate. Add that to the 112K starting point, and you have 144,872 cumulative to date as of the end of September, not even August!

So what can they do in 4Q? Again, the assumptions that Car & Driver made appear to be based on Musk's statement that they'd be at 5K/week by the end of December. Hopefully we can agree that this plan is out the window at this point.

InsideEVs estimated only 1120 S and 850 X in October. It's fair to debate this. InsideEVs believes that the reason for the shortfall is that Tesla was piling cars for international sale in December. This makes a lot of sense to me as it will enable Tesla to have a great worldwide 4Q sales figure without putting them into a window where they would cross 200K mid-quarter, which would be silly for them to do. Regardless, while I tend to put quite a bit of faith in InsideEVs estimates, I have assumed that November and December sales of S and X will climb back up to probably quite optimistic rates. If we look at quarter by quarter results for those vehicles:

• 1Q17: S: 6100 X: 4300 Total: 10400
• 2Q17: S: 5096 X: 4655 Total: 9740
• 3Q17: S: 8435 X: 6345 3: 222 Total: 15002

My 4Q17 estimates are:

• 4Q17: S: 5924 X: 4587 3: 3145 Total: 13656

So I'm even higher than your 12K estimate, and still this puts them at only 160K by year-end, given the true 144.5K end of third quarter figure. I think it boils down to the bogus 37K through-August estimate that Car & Driver used to get your starting figure.

This is a bit like reading the tea leaves. I don't believe that InsideEV knows. Because I don't think Tesla knows. They're working madly to bring up production. But all you need is one critical bit to fail, and the whole line grinds to a halt for another week. Stack a few of these up an you have another month delay. It's a bit like weather and climate. Medium term weather is nearly impossible to predict, even if the climate is quite predictable.

 

[RTPEV]

This is a bit like reading the tea leaves. I don't believe that InsideEV knows. Because I don't think Tesla knows. They're working madly to bring up production. But all you need is one critical bit to fail, and the whole line grinds to a halt for another week. Stack a few of these up an you have another month delay. It's a bit like weather and climate. Medium term weather is nearly impossible to predict, even if the climate is quite predictable.

Not sure what part you are referring to that InsideEVs and Tesla don't know other than 4Q and beyond. Hopefully we can agree that the numbers up to 3Q17 are pretty much set in stone, so the only question is the forward looking numbers.

And yes, definitely like reading tea leaves. However, the point I am trying to make is that even under what I consider quite an optimistic scenario, I just don't see Tesla crossing 200K in 1Q18. It will be 2Q18, or as you say, possibly even later if there is another critical bottleneck that comes up.

I say my assumptions are optimistic, not just because of the point I'm trying to make, but because I'm basing my assumptions on Elon's statements, and we can pretty much agree those are going to be the best case scenario figures. He said we will be at "multiple thousands" per week in December. So that's the assumption I used for my optimistic scenario. But if I had to read the tea leaves, I would look at the fact that the non-Elon management team "conservatively" estimated 5K/week by the end of 1Q18. The Model 3 delivery estimator, meanwhile only slipped out a month for most people. The actual ramp, to me anyway, and yes, partly based on InsideEVs October estimate, but also just a general gut feel based on VIN sightings, is that November will not quite be up to what Elon orginally predicted would happen in September. Maybe 500-600 cars in November? To me, that puts us about 2.5 months behind on the original Elon ramp schedule. Count on at least one more bottleneck to expose itself once the current one is cleared and yes, we are right around the 3 month delay point. In fact, you could argue that Tesla management is still optimistic in its 1Q18 5K/week estimate.

At any rate I think there is a possibility they could hit 200K in late March (although I think that even if the cars are ready, they will delay until 2Q), and a rather good possibility they could hit it in April. We should know by January whether there continue to be issues that could possibly slip it out into 3Q, but that doesn't seem very likely at this point.

 

[McHoffa]

The InsideEVs data should be highly trusted at least up to each quarter end (and I have pretty high confidence in their estimates as well). But look at what you did. You took the Car & Driver data which started out at 112K at the end of 2016 (accurate) and "estimates" 37K YTD (as of August). The problem is that this is not what InsideEVs data shows at the end of September even (which should be accurate at this point since they corrected the data with actual Tesla reported quarterly sales figures. Subtracting out October from your InsideEVs link, you have 19,630 Model S, 13,020 Model X and 222 Model 3, or 32,872 total. And this is based on Tesla reported numbers, so should be completely accurate. Add that to the 112K starting point, and you have 144,872 cumulative to date as of the end of September, not even August!

So what can they do in 4Q? Again, the assumptions that Car & Driver made appear to be based on Musk's statement that they'd be at 5K/week by the end of December. Hopefully we can agree that this plan is out the window at this point.

InsideEVs estimated only 1120 S and 850 X in October. It's fair to debate this. InsideEVs believes that the reason for the shortfall is that Tesla was piling cars for international sale in December. This makes a lot of sense to me as it will enable Tesla to have a great worldwide 4Q sales figure without putting them into a window where they would cross 200K mid-quarter, which would be silly for them to do. Regardless, while I tend to put quite a bit of faith in InsideEVs estimates, I have assumed that November and December sales of S and X will climb back up to probably quite optimistic rates. If we look at quarter by quarter results for those vehicles:

• 1Q17: S: 6100 X: 4300 Total: 10400
• 2Q17: S: 5096 X: 4655 Total: 9740
• 3Q17: S: 8435 X: 6345 3: 222 Total: 15002

My 4Q17 estimates are:

• 4Q17: S: 5924 X: 4587 3: 3145 Total: 13656

So I'm even higher than your 12K estimate, and still this puts them at only 160K by year-end, given the true 144.5K end of third quarter figure. I think it boils down to the bogus 37K through-August estimate that Car & Driver used to get your starting figure.

Sorry, I'd seen a higher estimate of where we were at as of Q3.

If we're going by their data, then Q4 will be Tesla's biggest quarter, and December will be by far their biggest month for both S and X (see previous years' charts)

Going by that, I would guess 4Q17:
S: 8,000 X: 5500 3: 3200
Total: 16,700

I added up Tesla's sales from their charts up to end of Q3 and it's 146,566. So yeah, you're close, that's 163k by end of year.
Add the ~12k S/X in Q1, and they can only deliver 25k Model 3s in Q1 to NOT hit the 200k mark., or 1900/week average through the end of March.

So aside from a really crappy next four months, they're still nearly guaranteed to cross the 200k mark in Q1.

Side note: do you happen to know where InsideEVs even gets their data? Because Tesla only releases total sales figures, not US deliveries.

 

[RTPEV]

Sorry, I'd seen a higher estimate of where we were at as of Q3.

If we're going by their data, then Q4 will be Tesla's biggest quarter, and December will be by far their biggest month for both S and X (see previous years' charts)

No, actually there is a slight dropoff in Q4 as compared to Q3 (which is traditionally a huge push for Tesla). 4Q16 (13150) was down 12% from 3Q16 (14939). A similar dropoff from 3Q17 would put them at 13205, but I estimate it slightly higher because of the Model 3 ramp. Granted, this could have all been simply because 3Q16 was a huge push, but in my opinion they had a similar push in Sep 17, and the "disappointing" estimate for October seems to indicate to me to expect a 4Q dropoff.

Going by that, I would guess 4Q17:
S: 8,000 X: 5500 3: 3200
Total: 16,700

I think those numbers are on the high side, but we are each entitled to our opinion.

I added up Tesla's sales from their charts up to end of Q3 and it's 146,566. So yeah, you're close, that's 163k by end of year.

Yes, that is exactly what I am getting:

Add the ~12k S/X in Q1, and they can only deliver 25k Model 3s in Q1 to NOT hit the 200k mark., or 1900/week average through the end of March.

Now first quarter is first quarter. Typically this is the slowest quarter industry-wide (probably due to the weather, and post-Christmas bill paying). I looked back on several first quarters and noticed a 20% dropoff from 4Q. So I have built that into my estimates.

And yes, I agree that with all that, they are still nearly guaranteed to cross 200K in Q1, but by my estimate, not until March 15. If they get to March 15 with only 2 weeks left in the quarter, they are simply not going to pull the trigger and cross 200K with only 2 weeks left in the quarter and make the full credit last only another 15 weeks. They will "do the right thing" as Elon said and delay that until April, prolonging the full credit to 26 weeks. And keep in mind, they wouldn't just be doing that as a show of goodwill to customers...if their full credit ends in June, they will face a half year of headwind against GM, who I currently estimate could cross the mark in 3Q18, but which will similarly delay until 4Q18. So it makes good business sense for them to do so.

Side note: do you happen to know where InsideEVs even gets their data? Because Tesla only releases total sales figures, not US deliveries.

I guess I don't know...I always assumed that the quarterly sales figures they release the first day of a new quarter (not the figures from the quarterly earnings report) were broken down by country. If not, I suppose it's a good question.

 

[shokunin]

No, actually there is a slight dropoff in Q4 as compared to Q3 (which is traditionally a huge push for Tesla). 4Q16 (13150) was down 12% from 3Q16 (14939). A similar dropoff from 3Q17 would put them at 13205, but I estimate it slightly higher because of the Model 3 ramp. Granted, this could have all been simply because 3Q16 was a huge push, but in my opinion they had a similar push in Sep 17, and the "disappointing" estimate for October seems to indicate to me to expect a 4Q dropoff.

4Q16 had reduced output as they had to shutdown the lines and retool to switch over to AP2 and 100kw pack. Although 100kwh pack was released in q3, they were still "limited" in 100kwh pack production through and beyond Q4.

 

[daveruns]

Seem to be getting off topic here. So the last reported Model 3 VIN in the wild was 1131? No new sightings this week?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Seem to be getting off topic here. So the last reported Model 3 VIN in the wild was 1131? No new sightings this week?

Lots of new sightings, no new high. Tesla has apparently stopped making new M3s and just clearing out the backlog. Redesign coming soon?

 

[McHoffa]

I guess I don't know...I always assumed that the quarterly sales figures they release the first day of a new quarter (not the figures from the quarterly earnings report) were broken down by country. If not, I suppose it's a good question

Yeah, I just wonder if they take the total, which is given by Tesla, and estimate 60% US (or whatever they think it is each quarter), but they give pretty specific numbers each time. I just know that, as far as I can tell, they are the only site that gives these numbers, so they must be their own numbers that they've calculated.

Still fairly certain they're hitting 200k in Q1 unless the ramp up just doesn't happen.

 

[Ulmo]

Lots of new sightings, no new high. Tesla has apparently stopped making new M3s and just clearing out the backlog. Redesign coming soon?

The VINs get assigned after configuration is submitted by buyer, and then at that point the sequencing of the assignment starts diverging until delivery. Delays can include:

• Batching
• Parts for particular batches that are needed
• Destination batching
• Destination sequencing
• Payment ready by customer (causes delays, not early deliveries)
• Touch ups during and after manufacture
• Transport delays (weather, waiting for truck or train, other stops first)
• How busy delivery center is
• Touch ups and scheduling at delivery center
• Customer schedule to pick up
• Customer putting protection and modifications before use
• Customer cycling car into their daily use

Did I miss anything?

 

[Waiting4M3]

The VINs get assigned after configuration is submitted by buyer, and then at that point the sequencing of the assignment starts diverging until delivery. Delays can include:
......
Did I miss anything?

The joke?

 

[McHoffa]

My 4Q17 estimates are:

• 4Q17: S: 5924 X: 4587 3: 3145 Total: 13656

Going by that, I would guess 4Q17:
S: 8,000 X: 5500 3: 3200
Total: 16,700

I think those numbers are on the high side, but we are each entitled to our opinion.

@RTPEV just a follow up, Inside EVs published their November totals, so here is what we have so far for Q4:

S:
October: 1120
November: 1335

X:
October: 850
November: 1875

3:
October: 145
November: 345

December has historically been the highest sales month of the year, well over September each year, so we can guess on the low end

S: 5000
X: 3500

Total Q4 (not counting Model 3): 13,680

490 Model 3s so far, and I am going to shoot low for December, considering we're not seeing any more invitations after the 30 or so from this forum:
300

Grand total (most likely): 161,036
14470 this quarter, unless suddenly the faucet opens up on Model 3 and we actually start seeing a LOT of invitations coming through in the next few days.

If they deliver can the 3200 we both originally guessed, that would put them on track for 16,880 in Q4, or total of 163,466

If they ramp up as slowly as they have been so far (I thought for sure December was going to be a big delivery month for them), then there is definitely a chance they won't hit 200k until the beginning of Q2. They'd need to deliver 1900-2100 average per week in Q1 to reach 200k. I just don't see that happening. Each day is giving me less hope that this ramp up is actually going to happen any time soon.

Lots of new sightings, no new high. Tesla has apparently stopped making new M3s and just clearing out the backlog. Redesign coming soon?

InsideEVs reporting just 712 delivered so far this year as of the end of November

They're WAY behind schedule. Original schedule would have been about 7000 by end of November. No sign of the ramp up starting at all still.

 

[RTPEV]

@RTPEV just a follow up, Inside EVs published their November totals

My new estimates are pretty much in line with yours. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt for a strong S & X December (7900 total) and even 2000 Model 3's (justification in a minute), landing at 162K by YE.

490 Model 3s so far, and I am going to shoot low for December, considering we're not seeing any more invitations after the 30 or so from this forum:
300

While 2000 in December is wildly optimistic (I am trying to present what I consider a best case scenario here), I'll base that on 2 things:

1. The invites we've seen go out so far might very well be a publicity "stunt" as you've pondered, in order to show deliveries to non-employees in 2017. That's a strong theory. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a second wave early next week.
2. I do think the news reports we've seen 1-2 weeks ago indicating that they believe the GF bottleneck is "solved" and should enable full speed operation "soon". I think that "soon" probably indicates 2nd week of December and we could possibly see the results of that coming out of the end of the vehicle assembly time right around the end of the year. I think Tesla will probably pull out all the stops to try to hit 1000/week by year end.

Now of course those final week 1000 will almost certainly not be DELIVERED in December. Tesla will claim them as "in transit". Actual December sales might be more like 1500 or so. I think they have a pretty good shot at that.

 

[Waiting4M3]

...
490 Model 3s so far, and I am going to shoot low for December, considering we're not seeing any more invitations after the 30 or so from this forum:
300
...
If they ramp up as slowly as they have been so far (I thought for sure December was going to be a big delivery month for them),... Each day is giving me less hope that this ramp up is actually going to happen any time soon.

Dude, it's only Dec 1st.

Edit: and why do you estimate 300 M3 deliveries in Dec when InsideEV estimated 345 deliveries in Nov?

 

[McHoffa]

Dude, it's only Dec 1st.

Edit: and why do you estimate 300 M3 deliveries in Dec when InsideEV estimated 345 deliveries in Nov?

it's December 1, which means 4 weeks is December 29, and we're talking Tesla time. I am highly doubting anyone ordering now would get their car this month. I'd love to be wrong, but that's realistic in my opinion.

I estimate 300 based on ~30 people on the forums saying they got their invitation, and guessing based one someone else's number that 10% of people would get on the forum to post that ( I actually think a higher percentage would, but I'll use the low end). Maybe there are a few more employees waiting, but they've had their invitations open for months, so I'd guess many would have already placed their order and had it fulfilled. I would think MOST employees would either wait for AWD/Performance (if they're high paid) or wait for standard battery (for the regular Joe working in store/factory). Maybe double that 300 to 600, but I'm doubtful at this point, and I was the one saying over and over that I was sure I'd get mine before end of year for months now. I only accepted that I wasn't last week. (non owner, 20th in line east coast).

My new estimates are pretty much in line with yours. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt for a strong S & X December (7900 total) and even 2000 Model 3's (justification in a minute), landing at 162K by YE.



While 2000 in December is wildly optimistic (I am trying to present what I consider a best case scenario here), I'll base that on 2 things:

1. The invites we've seen go out so far might very well be a publicity "stunt" as you've pondered, in order to show deliveries to non-employees in 2017. That's a strong theory. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a second wave early next week.
2. I do think the news reports we've seen 1-2 weeks ago indicating that they believe the GF bottleneck is "solved" and should enable full speed operation "soon". I think that "soon" probably indicates 2nd week of December and we could possibly see the results of that coming out of the end of the vehicle assembly time right around the end of the year. I think Tesla will probably pull out all the stops to try to hit 1000/week by year end.

Now of course those final week 1000 will almost certainly not be DELIVERED in December. Tesla will claim them as "in transit". Actual December sales might be more like 1500 or so. I think they have a pretty good shot at that.

I think the ramp up MIGHT start this month, but I don't think anyone ordering beyond this week should expect their car before January 1. I'd love to be proven wrong.

 

[Runt8]

I estimate 300 based on ~30 people on the forums saying they got their invitation, and guessing based one someone else's number that 10% of people would get on the forum to post that ( I actually think a higher percentage would, but I'll use the low end). Maybe there are a few more employees waiting, but they've had their invitations open for months, so I'd guess many would have already placed their order and had it fulfilled. I would think MOST employees would either wait for AWD/Performance (if they're high paid) or wait for standard battery (for the regular Joe working in store/factory). Maybe double that 300 to 600, but I'm doubtful at this point, and I was the one saying over and over that I was sure I'd get mine before end of year for months now. I only accepted that I wasn't last week. (non owner, 20th in line east coast).

How about the X number of employees who ordered a month or two ago? I can understand being skeptical on numbers but coming up with an estimate that is fewer than November seems a little silly.