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Highest production VIN in the wild
- Thread starter insaneoctane
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- Model 3
I'd like to believe so but in order for that to happen they should start registering new VINs faster than they are at the moment. Hopefully we'll see new VIN batch in next couple days, and hopefully it's bigger batch than the typical ~1000-1300.
Sandiegodoug
Active Member
Just got vin on my 2nd 3
88xx
I feel like the answer to this should be obvious
Seeing how we're still getting 8xxx and 7xxx vins, the rumors about holding cars back and fixing them after production but before delivery is fairly accurate. Probably why the delivery estimate changed from 3 weeks delivery to 3-6 weeks delivery to allow time to fix cars which didn't pass QC.
Pretty sure that we've determined that Tesla is not producing Model 3s in sequential VIN order. They're jumbling things around to try and conceal their current production rates. Just because people are still being assigned low VINs does not indicate that these cars were produced many weeks ago and were held for fixes identified during QC. I'm taking delivery of a 72XX VIN next week. I received my VIN assignment on the 7th. I'm expecting that when I look at the build plate (whatever it's called) on my Model 3 it will show that it was produced in March 2018.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Also looking at Bloomberg's M3 production tracker, their estimate didn't hit 8800 until ~3/3. With the VINs randomized, it's very well possible that a 88xx VIN could be just entering production on 3/3, going through the normal build process, and coming out now ~ 2 weeks later.
Expect your car to take a train ride across the country to New Jersey. From there, it will be put on a car carrier truck and driven to Dedham. A couple days there for them to detail it and do final inspection. All in all, 2-3 weeks more wait.
I go to dedham in 2 days!
My VIN, assigned on Feb 28, was 68xx. Definitely lends credence to the non-sequential production.
Should be easy to confirm once you have it. Let us know what it actually says.
The reason I bring this up, even though I support non sequential production rate, I do believe that they roll over to higher vins after completing the entire batch.
I.e. They could make vin 500-1000 then 4xx, then 0-400. Then move on to 2xxx. This is very generalized but the idea is that there is a batch (1k of cars in my example) they complete before moving onto next batch. What happens next is that some cars in 0-1000 will be delivered quickly because there aren't any issues with QC and few will be delayed to fix those issues then get delivered.
We're on 11xxx-12xxx batch which makes me believe they finished production of 0-10xxx and are just fixing it up. You're saying they probably produced 0-5xxx and are working on 6xxx-12xxx (this seems unlikely but could be).
I believe the VINs are not sequential in terms of assignment and delivery because of following reasons
Looking at the VIN data we should see VINs around 14K by march end. So that extrapolates to about 10K production and 8K deliveries. I am fairly certain now that deliveries will be around 8K. Production number could go up to 12-13K depending on production ramp in last 2 weeks.
- Choice of color (cars of color in most demand are produced first.Produce batch of say white cars and then move to other color)
- Delivery location (Farther distance from CA later the delivery)
- Quality problems (Car may be produced but not delivered because of quality problems.They can fix the problems and deliver car quickly but I guess they are holding back these cars investigating what went wrong in production)
Looking at the VIN data we should see VINs around 14K by march end. So that extrapolates to about 10K production and 8K deliveries. I am fairly certain now that deliveries will be around 8K. Production number could go up to 12-13K depending on production ramp in last 2 weeks.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Could you explain in more detail how 14K VIN by March end equates to 10K production in Q1? If I subtract the ~2500 produced in 2017 from the 14K, that leaves 11.5K. Is there another delta that you're applying?
My estimates are ~1K higher than yours in both production and delivery, 11K and 9K respectively.
More space to report on highest VIN # seen.....
Model 3 VINs on Twitter
#Tesla registered 2,042 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 15885.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter
#Tesla registered 2,042 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 15885.
Very promising news indeed. Now there have been 3 VIN batches (4 if you include the small 20 VIN batch from last week) in March so far. Each batch is roughly a week apart and each consequtive one with a higher VIN count:
March 2nd: 1088 new VINs, highest 12436
March 10th: 1387 new VINs, highest 13823, 299 more VINs than previous batch
March 20th: 2042 new VINs, highest 15885, 655 more VINs than previous batch
Based upon this evidence it would appear that their production rate is definitely starting to increase. Will they hit their promised 2500 per week by the end of March? I’m not so sure, but at least it appears they are on the right track.
I am assuming here that highest VIN reported does not mean production has hit that number. Given the VINs are not sequentially assigned, so 14k- 2.7k (2017 production) gives around 11.3k so I am assuming production of around 10k since not all the VINs till 14k will be used.
You are asking for data that simply is not available. Even if it was available, when a VIN is sighted by someone there is no way to know how long it has been since that VIN was delivered to the owner unless you were able to ask them. The number of data points you could gather in that manner would be so small that it would not be useful when trying to determine production rate.
Only a small fraction of all Tesla owners are active on TMC. Information found in these forums is anecdotal and is not based on a statistically valid sample size. One must draw conclusions with care.
No.
They will hit ~1900/w and all the fudsters will dance their dance of joy.
Totally missing the picture as they have been for 15 years already.
Reciprocity
Active Member
For context, 2000/w would be about 50% improvement in total unites produced over last year. That is astounding growth and only the beginning. At 4k, its almost 100% increase and around 50% increase in revenue. If they hit that by mid year, that will be Tesla has increased revs 50% going forward in just 6 months. This should only grow as they move into the end of the year and could end up around 100% growth. This is not uncommon for smaller businesses, but this is a company that is already has a market cap of $50B. Bring on the Y, Semi and Roadster! And of course the Pickup.
jkirkwood001
Active Member
The pickup is an interesting one, @Reciprocity. Can we assume statistically that most pickup owners a) do not take their pickup on long road trips, b) would happily charge at home / farm / rural house, and c) live are farther from a gas station than most car owners? If so, then a moderate range pickup would be a great fit and a good sell for Tesla. @dhanson865 showed us how many F-150s Ford sells every year. It would need bigger motors to provide towing power, but Tesla could make it out-tow ICE trucks for lower cost. Might even encourage more rural owners to put in solar or wind!
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