5 minute google search and I found 3 examples of him bragging about how Tesla will acheive L5 in 2019 or 2020.
Agreed! It’s the reason why Tesla is working on autopilot 4.0 hardware including 5mp cameras.
Tesla Hardware 4.0 to use 5 megapixel camera, production and shipments to Tesla already started: Report
Tesla hasn’t revealed many details about its next generation self-driving computer, referred to as Hardware 4.0 (HW4.0), but if news coming out of China is accurate, the new system will see a huge leap in […]driveteslacanada.ca
@enemji
That is the core of the issue: No one is saying that FSD is not _feasible_; it is just not ready for _prime/production_ and it seems it will not be for years. Tesla is behaving as if FSD is ready, which is not. Hence, all the issues we have.
It depends on when you bought the car/FSD.
From what I’m seeing on YouTube—considering how far FSD has come in just a handful of years—I don’t think L5 autonomy is far off. You do—fair enough. TESLA is not working to create the best EV’s. Everything that TESLA does is to advance the advent of the robotaxi fleet. Ultimately, TESLA will become an AI service provider, not a manufacturer of hardware available to the public. The reason that TESLA is working on a “million mile battery” is for its own long-term benefit, not for the benefit of TESLA owners (current or future).
Sad for Elon. How long has that been? 7yrs? 10yrs? Imagine the amortization on the amount of money paid for FSD by those early adopters. TESLA can afford it handsomely.It depends on when you bought the car/FSD.
When I purchased my car, the car configurator stated that purchasing FSD right now would include all necessary software and HARDWARE upgrades needed to run the final FSD product.
The language was later changed in the configurator to remove such promises. No, I don't know the exact date that the change in language was made.
Regardless, it would appear that Elon is on the hook to provide hardware upgrades for a large number of early FSD purchasers, myself included. Assuming, of course, that they're not able to get FSD version 1.0 running with promised features on the current hardware.
I got FSDb in the first round of Safety Score recipients. After thoroughly testing the initial version that was released to us (and several follow on versions), my thoughts very firmly aligned with yours.
Quoting my own post... how dreadfully tacky!
Great post! LOLI got FSDb in the first round of Safety Score recipients. After thoroughly testing the initial version that was released to us (and several follow on versions), my thoughts very firmly aligned with yours.
Fast forward to today, however, and I'm not so sure. Due to personal events that I won't get into, I didn't drive my car for months. I missed a ton of releases. Two weeks ago, I started driving and using FSDb again. When I think back at how that initial version performed compared to what is currently installed in my car, I now find myself disagreeing with past me and current you.
Back then, I posted that I thought full on FSD was three to five years away. Current me says it's a lot closer that what past me thought. I'm thoroughly impressed with the capabilities of the current version, and IMO, we're now about a year away from obtaining 95% of driving conditions (at least here in the US).
But there are several things that must be accounted for when judging the accuracy of my guesses: 1. I've been married for 26 years. 2. I'm pretty sure past me was wrong. 3. I've been married for 26 years. That's all to say my guess of 95% in one year has a 95% chance of being completely wrong.
So why bother with this post? To point out the fact that NO ONE knows when it'll be done. Could be 2023, could be 2053. We just don't know. Any dart we throw at the calendar has no basis in fact.
Long story short: It's done when it's done.
Me? I'm just along for the historical journey that this will end up being in future history books (that is, if they still make books at that point).
Which begs the question: Are we now experiencing a sort of “Moore’s Law”, in terms of FSD development and advancement over time?Quoting my own post... how dreadfully tacky!
So why would I breach forum etiquette in such an awful manner? Because I have a thought I'd like to express, and it's quite off topic from my earlier post.
Having gone so many months without driving my car came with a benefit: I didn't see the incremental progress of each FSDb release. I jumped forward in time, with a memory of how FSDb was performing at the time I stopped driving.
This gives me a bit of a unique perspective, having missed out on all those versions. And what a perspective it is!
I am utterly floored at how much better FSDb is now compared to how it was in April when I stopped driving my car. Early on in the beta, I was a bit (OK, very) dismayed by the lack of progress from version release to version release. But jumping forward in time like this has me excited again; the progress is real, and I find myself using FSDb all the time now (even with the wife or other passengers!), and not just by myself in very light traffic late at night.
I would rate its driving ability (in my area, at least) to now be on par with a 15 year old student driver, which is a massive improvement from the initial beta release I received.
I find myself excited again for FSDb... something I didn't think was going to happen again for years to come.
Quite interesting! Comparing FSDb to 15yr old definitely gives me hope.Quoting my own post... how dreadfully tacky!
So why would I breach forum etiquette in such an awful manner? Because I have a thought I'd like to express, and it's quite off topic from my earlier post.
Having gone so many months without driving my car came with a benefit: I didn't see the incremental progress of each FSDb release. I jumped forward in time, with a memory of how FSDb was performing at the time I stopped driving.
This gives me a bit of a unique perspective, having missed out on all those versions. And what a perspective it is!
I am utterly floored at how much better FSDb is now compared to how it was in April when I stopped driving my car. Early on in the beta, I was a bit (OK, very) dismayed by the lack of progress from version release to version release. But jumping forward in time like this has me excited again; the progress is real, and I find myself using FSDb all the time now (even with the wife or other passengers!), and not just by myself in very light traffic late at night.
I would rate its driving ability (in my area, at least) to now be on par with a 15 year old student driver, which is a massive improvement from the initial beta release I received.
I find myself excited again for FSDb... something I didn't think was going to happen again for years to come.
@Boza, consider that Uber is also working to develop their own autonomous robo-taxi fleet; TESLA is not alone in this. History will refer to this season in time as the “Autonomy Wars”, documenting the many tech firms and automakers that have worked to achieve L5 autonomy during this time. Also, there is no denying that the advent of minimalist design and lifestyle adaptation is on the rise, along with hyper-utilitarianism. With the current model of vehicle ownership, vehicle utility is around 4% - 7% with vehicles being parked/garaged the rest of the time. This is gross waste that comes at a cost. (Personally, the idea of sharing a “borrowed” AEV with thousands of other riders is not at all attractive. I like owning my vehicle/s and storing a bit of my own crap in my vehicle/s.)Quite interesting! Comparing FSDb to 15yr old definitely gives me hope.
But my point was different. I really do hope that they achieve FSDb. When? It is anyone’s guess at this point (assuming that the path they follow could lead to it). That is exactly the reason why we have startup ventures - to explore new things, to test, and (hopefully) be successful. But we cannot rely on them for crucial things.
On the other hand, we have tools that may not be bleeding edge but they must be reliable. Mixing those two things inevitably lead to complexity and problems down the road.
@THEbuz had an interesting point about the future of transportation. Honestly, I had similar thought when V11 came out - how awful it was for the human driver and how suddenly everything made sense if one took the human out of the picture. Even if the auto wipers do not work for a human, who cares if a human is not driving? One would care even less if that is a rentable asset rather than their own car.
That may be the real strategy for Tesla (and would explain a lot). However, there are some serious issues:
- FSD requires change in the mindset of the whole population, not just people who decide to participate. So, even if the technology advances with light speed (some serious doubts there) it will take a long time for the mass adoption which Tesla needs for the model to work
- The shared economy is a bit of a fad. Yes, it has its place but it is not as widespread as proponents want us to believe. People like to own things (just look at the real estate market) and part of the shared economy craziness could be explained by the fact that Gen X simply cannot afford to own the things they want.
So, those two fundamental premises are highly uncertain, especially at the scale Tesla will need them if they really pursue that strategy.
On the other hand, it is quite possible that we simply deal with a runaway ego, which would also explain a lot
The same can be said for EVs. Trends matter more than status quo if you're trying to surmise what the future looks like.
not sure this is true. the interstate speed limits I remember from my childhood (55mph) are all now 70+mph.
Here in Idaho, our 75mph Interstate speed limit was raised to 80mph about 8-10yrs ago. People routinely drive 85+ mph. I, myself, set the cruise control at 87mph and almost never see a cop. (I am referring to stretches of the Interstate that are outside of the populated area—on either end of the valley where most people live.)
What happened was that a 55 mph US national speed limit was imposed in 1974, as a measure to deal with a major gasoline price and availability squeeze stemming from the OPEC oil embargo. Prior to that, speed limits were set locally and we're much higher on many roads (including of course many undivided rural highways where the passing lane is also the opposite oncoming lane).
For better or worse, this never came for me until I was already an adult and a (somewhat) responsible father.
Pretty much the same in the US although we do get Navigate on Autopilot which has been known to work on occasion. I will admit AutoPark is pretty solid here nowadays after years of being more of a joke.
To make sure I understand correctly, you believe L5 responsibility isn't far off?
