How long before a better replacement batteries will be available?

[Barklikeadog]

Replaceable battery only makes owners keep their cars longer which means a decrease in sales.

If they don't buy new cars because they just buy new batteries then you get faster battery sales but less EV sales.

Retrofitting hardwares is not technological impossible.

Tesla is very resistant to your idea because it's just a matter of economics.

I thought Tesla was a different kind of car company that wouldn't do this to their customers. Building more cars creates a negative environmental impact. I would hope that Musk values this over greed.

 

[GarrickS]

I can't imagine the practice would be very widespread. The economics don't add up because the battery is 25%-40% of the cost of the whole car. There is certainly no demand for the service for today's Tesla fleet. Few, if any, of the batteries have worn out. Transplants from crashed cars are probably enough to meet the meager demand for quite some time.

How often do people replace the engine in their ICE car? It happens, but it's pretty rare. When it happens, either the engine is used, or the car is something special. Noone puts a brand new engine in a regular old worn car. That's silly.

The fact is that EV batteries are too expensive. Why would you pay $20k to put a new battery into a worn-out 10 yro car?

If and when the major tech changes, the equation may change. Today, the equation says to buy a new car.

 

[zer0cool]

Major retrofitting on car is generally not worth it.

Would you really spend 10k to replace the battery when the car is worth <20k? With old motors and everything else that could break down? Also the value of your car wouldn't really increase much with the new battery since it ll still be a 5-year old car with last-gen technology and old everything else.

Analogously would you spend 10k to replace the engine in a 5-year old ICE car? Because the new engine is more powerful / efficient?

It's probably cheaper to just sell the old car and buy a new car instead.

 

[zer0cool]

In terms of sustainability and electrifying transportation, it's much better to not change batteries. If you can change batteries after a few years, what the market is left with is an obsolete battery by itself... like what are you going to do with that? And anything you want to do with it would have pretty high associated costs.

However if the car is sold, someone who couldn't afford the 50k new EV would gladly buy the 20k used EV. The cost of finding a new use, and installing that obsolete battery is removed. It's just a fairly liquid used car transaction. Now you have 2 EVs on the road instead of 1 EV + an obsolete battery which would pollute to dispose.

 

[DFibRL8R]

Good discussion. I would add 2 points:
1) I take care of my vehicles such as the finish (exterior and interior), driving in a non-abusive way (off road/track use), battery charging practices etc. If I wanted to trade up to a newer (CPO, not brand new) Tesla for better range, I would be buying a vehicle with someone else's prior abuses unknown. Some (like finish) are easy to see, others are not. I would rather pay (a reasonable amount) to upgrade my now 5 year old 60kwh battery and get to keep a car I otherwise like.

2)Personal property taxes. In Virginia, I pay taxes every year on the assessed value of the vehicle. This is many thousands of dollars every year for a highly valued vehicle. Driving an older vehicle is a substantial cost savings on this. Improving that vehicle by adding a newer or larger capacity battery does not impact the tax assessment.

 

[DFibRL8R]

Oh and they already did replacement/upgraded packs for the roadsters.

Here is an except from an interview with Elon in 2013:
Q&A: Musk talks about Tesla's financing plan, company's future
"Will it be possible to swap out the original battery pack, or is today's buyer stuck with what he's got?
It may not be a three-year frame, but in four or five years, we'll have a step change in battery technology, so there will be a better pack than today. The pack today in the Model S costs half as much and has 50 percent more energy per unit mass than the Roadster.
So in 2018, could a 2013 Model S get a battery pack swapped out if there's a better one?
It can take a new battery pack. Even though the car is used, it could be better than the new car today in terms of increased range and functionality."

Hey Elon, it's 2018...

 

[GarrickS]

I would rather pay (a reasonable amount) to upgrade my now 5 year old 60kwh battery and get to keep a car I otherwise like.

Your 5 year old battery isn't worn out. Hell, it's still under warranty!

 

[brkaus]

I just don’t think the pricing can be “reasonable” from Tesla. It isn’t like they want to get in the biz of reselling and providing warranty for an old pack. So it isn’t an incremental cost.

Perhaps third party will take this on as the number of Tesla’s on the road continues to increase.

Heck, with my existing ICE car I’m having a hard time justifying a new transmission with the rest of the car off warranty and not knowing what will go next.

 

[DFibRL8R]

Your 5 year old battery isn't worn out. Hell, it's still under warranty!

I didn't say it was "worn out" but it has degraded over 5 years (as I would expect of course). With expected improvements in technology (longer range batteries) and decreasing cost per kWh, coupled with degradation there comes a point when an upgrade should make sense if it is priced reasonably. The battery could be repurposed into supercharger battery backup or other projects not just recycled into it's components.
Also the warranty on the 60kWh is only to 120k miles (not 8 years unlimited miles like the 85's), I could be there in a year or so.

 

[Tonymil]

Replaceable battery only makes owners keep their cars longer which means a decrease in sales. If they don't buy new cars because they just buy new batteries then you get faster battery sales but less EV sales...

Actually, short term, offering new ev purchasers a discount on future battery replacement would accelerate sales. Leaf sales went down when it announced that the 84 mile battery would be replaced by a 124 mile battery in 2018. 2018 sales will be impacted by the fact that Nisan has already announced that the 124 mile battery will be replaced by a 225+ battery in 2019. BUT, if Nissan gives current purchasers a discount on the purchase of the 2019 battery, that should help sales in 2018. No need to wait until the 2019 model comes out if you know you can get that battery at a discount.

I would compare current ev sales to the time when desktop pc's became obsolete the minute you bought one because prices were dropping while processing speed and storage capacity were increasing at dramatic rates. Some companies exploited that by offering a discount on future pc's to current purchasers, Kind of the same idea. Once the ev battery technology matures and batteries are capable of providing unlimited range with very short recharge times, this kind of incentive would disappear. But who knows when that time will come?

 

[DarthPierce]

Actually, short term, offering new ev purchasers a discount on future battery replacement would accelerate sales. Leaf sales went down when it announced that the 84 mile battery would be replaced by a 124 mile battery in 2018. .....

You are making some poor assumptions:

Tesla sales are not demand limited, they are supply constrained.

Production constraints are not with body related, they are battery limited.

Every battery not going into a new car would be a lost opportunity for both financial and ecological benefit.

 

[Canuck]

I thought Tesla was a different kind of car company that wouldn't do this to their customers. Building more cars creates a negative environmental impact. I would hope that Musk values this over greed.

Of course building more cars creates a negative environmental impact whether ICE or EVs. That's not the issue as I see it. The issue is how to get as many EVs on the road as fasts as possible, since those EVs will be replacing ICEs, which are currently being made in astronomically higher numbers than EVs. You do understand that right? So let's follow your logic with me as an example:

If you get your way, then I can upgrade the battery in my early 2014 S and that keeps my vehicle with me. My old battery goes to refurbishing/recycling with Tesla and one less good used EV vehicle is out there for someone to consider replacing their ICE with.

Or, I sell my 2014 S to someone and it takes that person's ICE off the road -- for him at least -- and I am in a new Model S -- since Tesla won't replace my battery.

Two EVs on the road vs. one! Yes, another EV was built but one less ICE is on the road and likely one less ICE will be built to replace it.
The math seems pretty simple to me.

But I do appreciate your concern for us S owners and trying to get us the latest and greatest. Can you also please call Musk "greedy" since he won't let me upgrade my non-AP to AP hardware?

 

[Tam]

I thought Tesla was a different kind of car company that wouldn't do this to their customers. Building more cars creates a negative environmental impact. I would hope that Musk values this over greed.

"Different" is an idealism but at the end of the day, it's a for-profit company.

If Apple had a choice, would it broadcast its program of $29 battery replacement for old Iphone or would it quietly spend money to write a program to slow down old Iphone to frustrate customers so they would opt to buy a $999 Iphone X?

 

[Science fan]

I didn't say it was "worn out" but it has degraded over 5 years (as I would expect of course). With expected improvements in technology (longer range batteries) and decreasing cost per kWh, coupled with degradation there comes a point when an upgrade should make sense if it is priced reasonably. The battery could be repurposed into supercharger battery backup or other projects not just recycled into it's components.
Also the warranty on the 60kWh is only to 120k miles (not 8 years unlimited miles like the 85's), I could be there in a year or so.

Our batteries should last a long, long time. Standard wisdom has it that there will be a five percent loss in range the first year, followed by five years of one percent loss each year, followed by an extended period of stability in range. A Tesla leasing company had two cars that each put on over 200,000 miles with only six percent loss. I have lost about two percent in 15,000 miles driven over 1.5 years. My best guess is that a Model 3 purchased today will still have ~90 percent of current range a dozen years from now. My hope is that I will be keeping my 2016 S75 until 2028, at which time I will sell it and buy a new, totally autonomous driving Model 3. Sales price of my Model S (and presumably your Model 3s) will be decent largely because of the residual value of the battery, which could be recycled. Regarding Elon's promise of more range, the new roadster, hopefully available in 2020, will have a range of 625 miles.[/QUOTE]

 

[Tonymil]

You are making some poor assumptions:

Tesla sales are not demand limited, they are supply constrained.

Production constraints are not with body related, they are battery limited.

Every battery not going into a new car would be a lost opportunity for both financial and ecological benefit.

My comment wasn't specific to Tesla, I was replying to a general comment about whether offering replacement batteries would increase or decrease ev sales generally, not whether it would increase/decrease model 3 sales. Tesla and the Bolt are in another category because they already offer or are close to offering unlimited range. Also, you're wrong about production constraints only relate to the battery. The battery issues have been fixed. Other bottlenecks exist.

 

[david_42]

Any upgrade at this point would be minor, as major improvements in range will require new battery technology in production. Fisker talks about 500 miles ranges, but the solid state batteries that they want to use are still in the laboratory.

 

[BigD0g]

HSRMotors offers this service today. HSR Motors via @wk057

 

[DFibRL8R]

HSRMotors offers this service today. HSR Motors via @wk057

Interesting although didn't wk057 have to hack his Teslas to keep them operating outside of Tesla's official support network since the mothership did not approve of his modifications?

Also there's this from that website:
Unless otherwise noted, the products listed here are not intended to be used as drop-in replacement parts for Tesla vehicles.

 

[BigD0g]

Interesting although didn't wk057 have to hack his Teslas to keep them operating outside of Tesla's official support network since the mothership did not approve of his modifications?

Also there's this from that website:
Unless otherwise noted, the products listed here are not intended to be used as drop-in replacement parts for Tesla vehicles.

I'm basing it on this:
Services | HSR Motors

Right hand side says:

Upgrades for Tesla Vehicles

• Battery Upgrades (all variants)
• Performance Upgrades (OEM and HSR specific)
• Other hardware retrofits (sensors, autopilot v1, seats, etc)

 

[Brando]

1- people don't buy EVs they can't use. IF the battery isn't big enough, why would they buy
2- buying a new battery can be compared to buying a new engine (battery vs engine costs will/is decreasing over time
(third parties could make replacement pack IF the business case pencils out - can you make money?)
3- Tesla has offered upgrades to new batteries - see Roadster and upgrades for Model S