How Many Vehicles Will Tesla Manufacture in 2018 (S/X/3)?

[electracity]

Total production, S, X and 3

 

[RobStark]

S 52,222
X 52,222
3 222,222

Total 326,666

 

[GoTslaGo]

S 52,222
X 52,222
3 222,222

Total 326,666

Looks like someone is rubbing off... 6s?

 

[Starno]

Total : 392 000

S+X = 135 000
M3 = 257 000

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Total: 355,000

Model S: 50,000
Model X: 50,000
Model 3: 255,000

 

[bdy0627]

S: 55,000
X: 49,000
3: 270,000
Total: 374,000

 

[SebastianR]

S 52,222
X 52,222
3 222,222

Total 326,666

I'm with you on that one. To make it more interesting, I take your S/X numbers but say 225k M3

 

[oneday]

S: 47k
X: 51k
3: 312

Total: 410k

so far winning most optimistic bull!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It's pretty amazing that not a single person thinks Tesla will reach its previous guidance of 500k in 2018.

 

[mrdoubleb]

100k S/X with product mix trending towards parity, but S still having the overall edge.

M3 production will average 5k per week for the year. I don't expect to be at 5k until deep into Q2, but during Q3 we should be well above that. So 250k M3.

Total 350k.

 

[Drax7]

S plus X = 105,000

Model 3.
24 weeks @ 2000 per week = 48,000
24 weeks @ 4000 per eeek = 96,000

Total 249,000

 

[electracity]

S plus X = 105,000

Model 3.
24 weeks @ 2000 per week = 48,000
24 weeks @ 4000 per eeek = 96,000

Total 249,000

This is where I am at too, but with little confidence in my prediction. I would not be shocked at 180K or 300K.

 

[electracity]

S: 47k
X: 51k
3: 312

Total: 410k

so far winning most optimistic bull!

Your S/X numbers are pessimistic. If Tesla did 312K M3 next year, I think the expiry of the ITC in the U.S. would drive higher S/X sales.

 

[SebastianR]

It's pretty amazing that not a single person thinks Tesla will reach its previous guidance of 500k in 2018.

This is because we are all blind fan-boys that drink Elon's word and take it for the gospel without a second thought!1!1one!eleven!
[I will show myself out and go in shame over to seeking alpha ]

 

[SBenson]

S+X 100K
M3 150K (plus/minus 30K)

 

[Buddyroe]

It's pretty amazing that not a single person thinks Tesla will reach its previous guidance of 500k in 2018.

Amazing? Do you find it amazing when no one will stick their hands in fire because they've learned they get burned?

Most will call it common sense. It would be amazing if ANYONE believed an EM prediction at this point.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I can't go lower than 100k.

 

[electracity]

I can't go lower than 100k.

Sure you can. Post your estimate. Does it include negative model 3 production?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Sure you can. Post your estimate. Does it include negative model 3 production?

OK, my pessimism says 55k, due to suspension of production after investors and lenders finally lose patience. with the failed ramp.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Sure you can. Post your estimate. Does it include negative model 3 production?

Some say Tesla destroyed more battery packs than produced in September. Would that count as negative Model 3 production?