How many years before there is a true Model S compeditor?

[howardc64]

Looks like a clear winner for 2018 and second being 2017. Looks like NAIAS 2015 should be very interesting as that might be the likely unveiling of E or a solid competitor then

I think a model E competitor is a lot closer. I've been thinking about a second cheaper than model S EV and saw what GM did with the Spark EV. It's quite impressive. Several natural factors are contributing to readiness

- Hybrids have prepped several systems ready for EV. Electric steering and electric pumps for hydraulic brakes are necessary in hybrids when ICE is off. As is electric heater.
- A lower end car doesn't require complete new architecture like Model S. Put the electric motor where ICE is, find some space under the rear seats and trunk/hatch for the battery.
- 2X range is possible (and gets a lot more interesting for many consumers) if they are able to a) up the price and b) fit multiple battery packs where there is space in existing chassis.

Spark EV is really interesting attempt and got to the market quick. Remained FWD, borrowed Volt's electronics. Avoided the itch for new architecture just because its an EV. 21kWhr thermally managed battery from 3rd party supplier (A123 systems). Priced at $27k before fed+state tax incentives. For a mass market car, reasonably set of design tradeoffs. They can probably apply this design strategy to the next class sized car. Key next step is probably how to get a 2X real range.

Scalability might be a problem. Its only for CA/OR market now and may not have profitability. Nor is it clear the battery product can scale. But if there is demand... suppliers will work really hard

 

[chickensevil]

I think a model E competitor is a lot closer. I've been thinking about a second cheaper than model S EV and saw what GM did with the Spark EV. It's quite impressive. Several natural factors are contributing to readiness

- Hybrids have prepped several systems ready for EV. Electric steering and electric pumps for hydraulic brakes are necessary in hybrids when ICE is off. As is electric heater.
- A lower end car doesn't require complete new architecture like Model S. Put the electric motor where ICE is, find some space under the rear seats and trunk/hatch for the battery.
- 2X range is possible (and gets a lot more interesting for many consumers) if they are able to a) up the price and b) fit multiple battery packs where there is space in existing chassis.

Spark EV is really interesting attempt and got to the market quick. Remained FWD, borrowed Volt's electronics. Avoided the itch for new architecture just because its an EV. 21kWhr thermally managed battery from 3rd party supplier (A123 systems). Priced at $27k before fed+state tax incentives. For a mass market car, reasonably set of design tradeoffs. They can probably apply this design strategy to the next class sized car. Key next step is probably how to get a 2X real range.

Scalability might be a problem. Its only for CA/OR market now and may not have profitability. Nor is it clear the battery product can scale. But if there is demand... suppliers will work really hard

The spark is a direct competitor to the leaf... The leaf seems to be the standard goal that companies are pushing for and I don't get the feeling that anyone is really trying to hit a 200 mile EV yet. I hope they get on board soon, because if not the. They are going to be left behind. The whole dynamic is going to change when you get over the 150 mile hump of real miles driven. After talking with some wonderfully intelligent Tesla owners during the TeslaRoadTrip event I think I might be included to agree that they are at least 10 years away from a real competitor in the 200+ mile range.

 

[howardc64]

The spark is a direct competitor to the leaf... The leaf seems to be the standard goal that companies are pushing for and I don't get the feeling that anyone is really trying to hit a 200 mile EV yet. I hope they get on board soon, because if not the. They are going to be left behind. The whole dynamic is going to change when you get over the 150 mile hump of real miles driven. After talking with some wonderfully intelligent Tesla owners during the TeslaRoadTrip event I think I might be included to agree that they are at least 10 years away from a real competitor in the 200+ mile range.

Yes everyone is targeting Leafs 60-70 real range at the moment. 2x range is just 2x battery. Question is if 2x battery can be done on standard chassis (quick to market) without model s's EV customized skateboard battery chassis on a family oriented car. I kinda think its possible if aiming at mid sized chassis. Spark is a subcompact chassis.

My wife won't look at anything 70 mile real range. She thinks these cars are paper weights once range decreases due to battery wear combined with the winter cold weather heating range loss. We live in the suburb. Her daily errands can require 70miles and searching for EV charge stations doesn't really work with multiple kids activities

 

[chickensevil]

Yes everyone is targeting Leafs 60-70 real range at the moment. 2x range is just 2x battery. Question is if 2x battery can be done on standard chassis (quick to market) without model s's EV customized skateboard battery chassis on a family oriented car. I kinda think its possible if aiming at mid sized chassis. Spark is a subcompact chassis.

My wife won't look at anything 70 mile real range. She thinks these cars are paper weights once range decreases due to battery wear combined with the winter cold weather heating range loss. We live in the suburb. Her daily errands can require 70miles and searching for EV charge stations doesn't really work with multiple kids activities

it isn't quite as simple as 2x the battery, depends on weight. But as you can see from the roadster you can get some pretty great range from a 44kw if weighted properly

 

[iffatall]

I could be wrong, but all it takes is a huge investment, and the willingness to digest losses for a few years before being able to make bigger profits, in short - strong will and intent. Any of the auto giants could do this potentially. Remember, they have a lot lot more resources, which when properly utilized, can achieve what Tesla has achieved in a much shorter time. As I said, it needs the will.

 

[HHHH]

I think there are a few big factors that really make the Tesla the tour de force benchmark in this realm. One is the technology alone, the massive 17" touchscreen that operates everything and the operating system. The second is the innovative nature of the battery, no one has anything close and there doesn't seem to be yet. Third, is the over the air software updates, there are very few software companies that offer any updates at all, let alone over the air. Fourth is the massive Tesla station / Supercharger network. These are being developed in almost every possible area, this would take years for a competitor to try and duplicate or replace. Tesla has a strong foothold if not the monopoly on electric luxury.

 

[EdA]

How many years before the title is fixed? ;-)

 

[Discoducky]

How many years before the title is fixed? ;-)

What is wrong with the title?

 

[EdA]

What is wrong with the title?

Typo: compeditor != competitor

 

[AustinPowers]

Some thoughts:

[1]. I don’t get this obsession with acceleration and top speed. Almost literally all cars in the US seem ridiculously over-motorized. I’ve driven an ’11 VW Passat Station Wagon with an 1,4L turbo and supercharged methane/petrol engine that puts out 150 hp and does 0-100 km/h in 9,9 something seconds with the manual tranny (not available in the US, and the European Passat is not size XL as the US version…). There is absolutely no problem getting around in that car by just using half the throttle. And overtaking is also absolutely zero problems. Another example is the entry-level Audi A4 Avant (Audi-peak for station wagon) diesel in Sweden, The entry level diesel, the 2.0 TDI, has 150 hp, and does 0-100 km/h in 9,5 seconds with the manual tranny.

I don’t know what the absolute minimum for an entry level car is in the US, but in Sweden at least, it is absolutely not 4.3 seconds for the 0-60 mph time (!)

And who cares about top speed. As long as it will ‘safely’ allow you to loose your drivers license for speeding above the highest legal speed-limit, then who needs to go faster than that?

+++1

I don't understand that faszination for over-motorized XXL vehicles in the US either.
Of course, the feeling you get when accelerating in a Model S, especially the Performance model, is exhilarating at the very least, but this is still an EV. And the main point for an EV should be to be able to compete with ICE's in everyday usability, and at a comparable price. Not to outrun a Ferrari. And not at the price of three VW Golf.

- - - Updated - - -

If you think a US Passat is XL size I'm curious what you think of the size of a Model S. A Model S is 4.5" longer and 5.1" wider than a US Passat.

I think SwedishAdvocate was comparing the US Passat to the European Passat, which is a totally different (and smaller) vehicle.

- - - Updated - - -

Apparently Germans care [about top speed]. Not Americans.

Very true. But only because we still have a few stretches of Autobahn left where you can max out your cars. Even a Bugatti Veyron ;-)

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

.../ I think SwedishAdvocate was comparing the US Passat to the European Passat, which is a totally different (and smaller) vehicle. /...

Well, I actually recently returned to the backseat of that car (The wagon version without the pano – and at least from the backseat it’s actually not that big. I’m 1,87 meters. If you’re not familiar with the metric system, then that’s about the height of Schwarzenegger when he towered at his tallest :wink.

I guess it’s just a pretty moderately sized car. Or “lagom” as we sometime say here in Schweden.