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How Much of a Delay Would Worry You?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by DrDave, Mar 31, 2012.

  1. DrDave

    DrDave Member

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    So far, everything seems to be on track for Model S delivery.

    But out of curiosity, if I am reservation __X__, and expect my delivery on date __Y__.

    How much of a delay on the expected delivery date would cause concern?
     
  2. NielsChr

    NielsChr Member

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    As far as I know, only 1 (or may a few others) have been promised a fixed delivery date (I guess signature holders in the range #1-10). They have been promised delivery this summer.

    All others may have an expectation about when they will have the car delivered, but this is only based on speculation - they have an expected production plan, but that could change as they are getting started.

    E.g. my self, expect a delivery in the beginning of 2013, but I really doesn’t know that for a fact - I will have to wait and see when Tesla issue an expected delivery date to me personally.
    When I receive an "official" delivery date about MY model S, then I will be disappointed if they do not deliver on time or at least with-in a few weeks of that date.


    as a side note to all witch do expect delivery on a specific date - delivery are not possible to calculate without Tesla - only they know how and in witch order the production will occur - e.g. production on your car may heavily depend on the options you select....even the color may influence when your car will be build and we know for Shure that the battery choice will.
     
  3. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    If I choose 60kWh; TM has said that 60kWh will be Fall so I would expect mine to be delivered in the Fall (between Sept and Dec) and I'm #2842
     
  4. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    I believe up to Sig 40 have been contacted.
     
  5. onlinespending

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    No amount of reasonable delay (a few months) would be worrisome to me. I'd be far more worried if they met or exceeded their delivery plans, and had a number of issues being reported from the early cars. If there is a delay we would have to assume it's for good reason, and it's actually comforting to me that they'd put quality, safety, and reliability over all else. Sure, shareholders wouldn't like that at first, but in the end it'd be better for its customers and better for Tesla.

    Of course there's no reason to believe they're behind schedule, but since this was a hypothetical question I am patient enough to wait for Tesla to make sure they have dotted all their i' and crossed all their t's. So no delay would really worry me.
     
  6. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    I agree. Most schedules are optimistic. We know that things are moving forward rapidly. If there is any delay now (and it seems like everything is on-track), my assumption is that there was a quality problem that is being addressed. That's how manufacturers with integrity respond. Stock price may dip short-term, but it will recover the moment cars start shipping.
     
  7. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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    Hi Discoducky, am going for the 60kWh as well and am #1620; no way to be sure but, going by past exchanges with Tesla sales reps, I'm looking at November apparently.

    Will be happy if I can get the car by December at the latest; any later and I'd be more inconvenienced (with only one car in the household otherwise) than concerned.
     
  8. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    As it stands right now, even though TM hasn't communicated it, I think they are ahead of the their stated production ramp. Since founders were configuring in early March, they should take delivery in June, as should some Roadster/Sig holders. Of course their are several risks in the way of this but I currently think TM has built more buffer into their schedules then they are using.

    So to fully answer the question of this thread: I wouldn't be concerned, but would be surprised, if we didn't see crash results in April, full list of options in May (including connectivity packages), EPA sticker in June with "celebrity" deliveries soon after. The only thing that really concerns me is build quality: Fit and Finish of body panels, Software bugs, UI deadends, Rattles/Squeaks or any other sound anomalies at low or highway speeds.

    Putting my investor hat on and to put a finer point on the topic: After visiting the factory I would bet big money that everyone on the line or has "Engineer" in their title won't let anything get by them and will deliver the car when they are happy with it 'Full stop'. Tesla has to be synonymous with Quality that surpasses expectations of ICE cars of the same class. Fiskar has done irreparable harm to their brand, IMO, by releasing a car with so many surface issues. If TM repeats any of these mistakes, people will use them in the same sentence as Fiskar. If that happens, I will pull my investments. I doubt that will happen, as much as I doubt that the sun will not come up tomorrow. The folks I met at the factory have accepted this challenge, with a knowing smile, since they could see the finish line even back in October.
     
  9. BYT_P1837

    BYT_P1837 Member

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    The good argument I heard was, Elon also is the CEO/CTO of SpaceX. Elon is also a perfectionist! Taking those two facts into consideration. You have to be pretty precise and calculated to successfully put a large object into space for a fraction of the cost NASA did it it. If he can pull that off, then if you put that in perspective, a car which is complicated (much less so in a Model S because of it's simple power-train) but not rocket science complicated. Also, I think Elon believes in "Under Promising" and "Over Delivering", you can see where this is going, right? :)
     
  10. William13

    William13 Member

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    I put money down three years ago and have been waiting for a "real" electric car for forty years. No concerns.
     
  11. Trnsl8r

    Trnsl8r Blue 85kwh since 12/8/12

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    I'm with you there...

    In a previous job, I sent out translation projects to freelancers. Almost always, the translator would come back with content specific questions in order to complete the assignment, which would be expected. It was the times when I didn't hear back on any questions, just got a translation and an invoice in my email, that I would be concerned.

    A (short) delay would be annoying, but also a bit oddly reassuring. That would tell me that they aren't letting anything go, that they are "asking questions", and that they know that if Model S's quality comes into question, there will be no Model X...
     
  12. aviators99

    aviators99 Model S - R140

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    I thought the same thing, until the delay with the design studio, and then the bugs that were in it (and are still in it, by the way).
     
  13. BYT_P1837

    BYT_P1837 Member

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    The web guys and the hardware tech guys are not the same so I wouldn;t be too worried or lump them together they same way either... :) Don't toss the baby out with the bath water is the expression here?
     
  14. Larry Chanin

    Larry Chanin Model S Perf Sig 1055

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    Hi Dave,

    At the risk of stating the obvious, delays occur when something goes wrong. From my perspective my concerns would center not so much on the length of the delay, but rather on the seriousness of the underlying problem. If a problem occurs that effects the initial promised deliveries in July, I would be more interested in hearing Tesla's explanation for the cause of the delay rather than their estimate of the duration of the delay. If Tesla's explanations were forthright and credible I would have no problem waiting many months. However, if Tesla is vague in their explanations, and/or if they provided estimates for the delay that were not met, then I would become concerned regardless of the shortness of the delay.

    Larry
     
  15. Todd Burch

    Todd Burch Electron Pilot

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    I have plenty of tolerance for delays if Tesla is up-front and open about the cause. It shows that they're open with their customers and are willing to temporarily upset stockholders in order to deliver a quality product in the end. Hiding problems under the table and giving masked excuses is a sure-fire way to get me to withdraw my reservation and look elsewhere.

    Part of the reason why I'm spending way more on a Tesla than I'd typically spend on any car is because I want to put my money where my mouth is and endorse this new approach to car making. If Tesla's up-front, open, and honest with me, I'll give them more leeway than I'd give a traditional car company. (Granted, *most* of the reason is because it's a bad-ass electric car...but the rest still stands).
     
  16. aviators99

    aviators99 Model S - R140

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    My reply was in reference to a post on "perfectionism". I didn't think he was suggesting that Musk is only a perfectionist for parts of his company.
     
  17. BYT_P1837

    BYT_P1837 Member

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    From Todd Burch "I have plenty of tolerance for delays if Tesla is up-front and open about the cause. It shows that they're open with their customers and are willing to temporarily upset stockholders in order to deliver a quality product in the end."

    Investors can't wait for those days because we see them as opportunities to purchase more shares at a discount. ;) Win-Win for all? I have a lot of faith in TM and think that they will get it right but may not necessarily share all the details because even a good and fair excuse can bite you in the arse. Ultimately it will be the final product that leaves the factory doors and goes to Car and Driver, Consumer Reports and even Engadget or C-Net that will make or break the Model S. I'm gambling that they will LOVE IT! If I didn't, I wouldn't have held my reservation for so long. That to me is also an investment, and I think it's a great one!
     
  18. kendallpb

    kendallpb Model S: P 8061

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    I have no idea what to expect, so it'll be tough to disappoint or even worry me! I expect 2013, but when? I vaguely recall they'll do 85 kWh cars first or something, but no one asked me what I wanted when I reserved online, so (a) I misremembered, (b) I misunderstood, or (c) as they ask people what they want (in clumps, 3 months out) they're going to reorder people based on battery. (shrug)

    Anyway, there should be 5,000 cars in 2012 and 20,000 per year after that. The FAQ just says 20,000 per year except in 2012, so I expect close to 20,000 in 2013! Maybe I'm naive. ;-) Anyway, this means I hope I get it my car in Q1 2013, but I won't even worry if I don't get it till Q2. If it's Q3, I'll be disappointed; if it's Q4 or later, then I'll worry. Except, thinking this through -- by that point we'd know so much more, and had our expectations recalibrated more than once, no doubt -- so I bet I wouldn't be worried then. I just can't realistically expect major delays and no explanation/adjustment of schedules. Tesla wouldn't leave us hanging so long that by Q1 2013, I didn't know when my car was coming (ETA: not a date, but a good idea, e.g., which quarter) and hadn't (probably) adjusted to it.

    So it's really not a delay that would be worrisome to me -- and apologies for rambling to get to my point, since I was working it out while typing. ;-) Months of no explanation/communication/mysterious delays would worry me; explained/understood delays would not, methinks. Not sure I'm making sense. . . .
     
  19. Larry Chanin

    Larry Chanin Model S Perf Sig 1055

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    I have confidence in Tesla as well, which is why I believe that they will make every effort to inform their customers regarding the reason for the delay. No, I don't think that they will reveal every detail of design issues, but it would be extremely unwise to leave their customer base in the dark. In the absence of conventional advertising it would be a major misstep to give their customers a reason to doubt Tesla's forthrightness, especially since their deposits are 100% refundable. Whereas receiving a good impression from professional reviewers is important, the most important thing to assure viability is to maintain a constant flow of reservations. No matter how rabid we early adopters are, this simply can't be achieved with the general marketplace if delays occur without reasonable explanations.

    Larry
     
  20. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    So far it seems they usually give a good overview in the quarterly reports, especially in the Q&A session, if the right questions are asked. Next one is coming about May. As many said before, my impression is also that they are on schedule with the necessary buffers to deal with all those little things that usually come up.
     

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