How would you prefer to pay for Supercharging?

[ohmman]

The secret is out ...
Musk suggested that Supercharger access won’t be free for owners of its mass market sedan.

If the secret you're referring to is the linked article in the portion I quoted, that "secret" has been out since June 1st (as you can see from the article date).

 

[FlatSix911]

If the secret you're referring to is the linked article in the portion I quoted, that "secret" has been out since June 1st (as you can see from the article date).

Yes, and the hidden code is a confirmation

 

[ohmman]

Yes, and the hidden code is a confirmation

OK. We've been talking about that hidden code for a couple of days in this thread. Sorry for the confusion..

 

[dsvick]

I think this supports Tesla charging an average 12 cents a kWh for all states used in their current charging estimator to determine charging cost per mile.

Link to current cost of a kWh of electricity by state

www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/

Using a regional price can't be that hard to determine and would be safer for them anyway as they'll have more control. If they use an average price they'll have to weight it based on density of ownership. I think there are more Teslas right now in CA and in the Washington DC area than other areas of the US and both of them are above the $0.12.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

I added all the states to compare the fuel cost between Tesla's 100 kWh battery and a Prius that gets 50 miles to a gallon. There are sixteen states where the electricity cost for the Tesla is greater than the cost of gas for a Prius getting 50 miles to the gallon. The comparison gets better for Tesla as the cost of gas goes up and when driving a ice vehicle that gets less than 50 miles to a gallon.

I think this supports Tesla charging an average 12 cents a kWh for all states used in their current charging estimator to determine charging cost per mile.

Link to current cost of a kWh of electricity by state

www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/

Link to the current average price of regular gas by state:

www.gasprices.aaa.com/

View attachment 192399

You might want to double-check your spreadsheet. I just checked a few values and saw the cost per kWh for Colorado is incorrect and Georgia isn't spelled correctly.

 

[Fred Thompson]

THANKS MorrisonHiker, I also found the gas price entered wrong for New Hampshire. The corrected spreadsheet is below.

I added all the states to compare the fuel cost between Tesla's 100 kWh battery and a Prius that gets 50 miles to a gallon. There are sixteen states where the electricity cost for the Tesla is greater than the cost of gas for a Prius getting 50 miles to the gallon. The comparison gets better for Tesla as the cost of gas goes up and when driving a ice vehicle that gets less than 50 miles to a gallon.

I think this supports Tesla charging an average 12 cents a kWh for all states used in their current charging estimator to determine charging cost per mile.

Link to current cost of a kWh of electricity by state:
www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/

Link to the current average price of regular gas by state:
www.gasprices.aaa.com/

 

[Alketi]

OK -- I'll bite.

Why do you think Tesla would only charge $0.12 / kWh?

First, and I'm not well versed in utility structures, but I don't believe they're paying residential rates but rather business rates (which are higher) due to their 13.8kV requirements.

Second, even if they were paying a national average of $0.12, why would they choose to break-even on charging and eat all the costs of the supercharger build-out as well as any other recurring costs (lease, maintenance, etc)??

 

[MorrisonHiker]

THANKS MorrisonHiker, I also found the gas price entered wrong for New Hampshire. The corrected spreadsheet is below.

I added all the states to compare the fuel cost between Tesla's 100 kWh battery and a Prius that gets 50 miles to a gallon. There are sixteen states where the electricity cost for the Tesla is greater than the cost of gas for a Prius getting 50 miles to the gallon. The comparison gets better for Tesla as the cost of gas goes up and when driving a ice vehicle that gets less than 50 miles to a gallon.

I think this supports Tesla charging an average 12 cents a kWh for all states used in their current charging estimator to determine charging cost per mile.

Link to current cost of a kWh of electricity by state:
www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/

Link to the current average price of regular gas by state:
www.gasprices.aaa.com/

View attachment 192463

Thanks for correcting things. Colorado went from red to green.

 

[stopcrazypp]

OK -- I'll bite.

Why do you think Tesla would only charge $0.12 / kWh?

First, and I'm not well versed in utility structures, but I don't believe they're paying residential rates but rather business rates (which are higher) due to their 13.8kV requirements.

Second, even if they were paying a national average of $0.12, why would they choose to break-even on charging and eat all the costs of the supercharger build-out as well as any other recurring costs (lease, maintenance, etc)??

I had the exact same thought. People seem to think that a charging network must match residential rates. I guess they have never used a third party paid charging network (which costs significantly more than residential rates). The costs for connection (including demand charges), lease, maintenance, etc must be factored in.

At most Tesla will attempt to match a gasoline equivalent if possible, but that car would not be a Prius (but rather something like a 3 series or an A4). Many charging networks actually cost more than a gasoline equivalent. You are paying extra for the convenience. Remember, a quick charging network isn't designed as a home charging replacement, so doesn't have to match home charging rates at all (ideally it should be more expensive to encourage people to charge at home whenever possible).

 

[JeffK]

At most Tesla will attempt to match a gasoline equivalent if possible, but that car would not be a Prius (but rather something like a 3 series or an A4). Many charging networks actually cost more than a gasoline equivalent. You are paying extra for the convenience. Remember, a quick charging network isn't designed as a home charging replacement, so doesn't have to match home charging rates at all (ideally it should be more expensive to encourage people to charge at home whenever possible).

This goes against one of the selling points of EVs... especially for people without the ability to charge where they live.

 

[stopcrazypp]

This goes against one of the selling points of EVs... especially for people without the ability to charge where they live.

I'm sure Tesla will attempt to reach some middle ground within the bounds of paying for the marginal costs (maybe a small subsidy if necessary for "advertising" purposes), but I think it is just unrealistic to expect them to match residential rates or a 50mpg car.

 

[Fred Thompson]

OK -- I'll bite.

Why do you think Tesla would only charge $0.12 / kWh?

First, and I'm not well versed in utility structures, but I don't believe they're paying residential rates but rather business rates (which are higher) due to their 13.8kV requirements.

Second, even if they were paying a national average of $0.12, why would they choose to break-even on charging and eat all the costs of the supercharger build-out as well as any other recurring costs (lease, maintenance, etc)??

I don't think Tesla will vary the cost for electricity from what they use on their charging estimator that displays the savings you gain by driving a Tesla. If they charge more than the estimator, they will get negative press as the result.

 

[JeffK]

The other issue is that Tesla's original plans were to have solar panels for supercharging stations that would net energy to the grid (if you were to combine power generated at all the stations).

Granted this isn't the case yet, but if they are serious about sustainable transport then sustainable clean energy would be a start. The up front cost is major but after everything is built then energy should get cheaper.... one would think.

 

[Alketi]

I don't think Tesla will vary the cost for electricity from what they use on their charging estimator that displays the savings you gain by driving a Tesla. If they charge more than the estimator, they will get negative press as the result.

The estimator, at least by my intuition, is there so one can determine their daily charging costs, in order to give an idea of cost of ownership.

It's not there to provide charging costs for occasional long distance supercharger trips, especially since that (pre)pay-per-use model doesn't yet exist.

Tesla needs to make money, unfortunately. Just today, news of this additional capital raise has broken and the stock is down 5%. There's a regular CNBC analyst who just accused the company of being a "cash incinerator". The path to stay in business is not to lose money on every transaction. This isn't a non-profit enterprise. They need to charge enough for supercharger access so that the business is self-sustaining, so they keep building more superchargers and can service/upgrade the ones they have. I suspect they'll be able to do that and still keep them cheaper than an equivalent gas fillup.

 

[ohmman]

The path to stay in business is not to lose money on every transaction. This isn't a non-profit enterprise. They need to charge enough for supercharger access so that the business is self-sustaining, so they keep building more superchargers and can service/upgrade the ones they have. I suspect they'll be able to do that and still keep them cheaper than an equivalent gas fillup.

Well said. I think Tesla will try their best to make it cheaper than gas, but there's no guarantee. If it ends up being equivalent to or more expensive than the current price of gas, it may not make sense for people without stationary (home or work) charging. Tesla will have to be OK with losing that segment initially, and target them in another way. I'd argue, though, that there are still enough pros to the Tesla driving experience where at least a portion of that segment would be willing to pay the same in fueling costs to drive one.

For the vast majority of drivers, a road trip with higher cost isn't going to flip the economic scales away from driving an EV. What Tesla charges per kWh for Supercharging is up to them and only marginally relevant to the purchase decision, so long as it's within some reasonable parameters.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

As to the "Cash Incinerator" comment- building a factory to build your product does require up-front spending. Spending on Capital Improvement that builds assets is not the same as burning paper with nothing to show except heat and light. Any fellow who went through Jr. Achievement knows this basic element of business.
As I look at the SC network, I look at the convenience of travel. My ICE can get filled up many places, I need to have the confidence I can EV travel near anywhere too. When on a road trip, I don't expect the cost of gas to be the same in Calif as it is in AZ or TX. If that is where I'm headed, then thats the cost of the trip.
I could see that Tesla might have SC near cheap power sources, and some where the Utility really grabs them. I could see product managers trying to optimize the density of chargers while planning to reduce the cost at each one. Will they put in massive battery banks or solar arrays? Probably, but this capital needs to go to the Factory for now, but not forever.
I wholly accept the statement For the vast majority of drivers, a road trip with higher cost isn't going to flip the economic scales away from driving an EV. What Tesla charges per kWh for Supercharging is up to them and only marginally relevant to the purchase decision, so long as it's within some reasonable parameters.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Well said. I think Tesla will try their best to make it cheaper than gas, but there's no guarantee. If it ends up being equivalent to or more expensive than the current price of gas, it may not make sense for people without stationary (home or work) charging. Tesla will have to be OK with losing that segment initially, and target them in another way. I'd argue, though, that there are still enough pros to the Tesla driving experience where at least a portion of that segment would be willing to pay the same in fueling costs to drive one.

For the vast majority of drivers, a road trip with higher cost isn't going to flip the economic scales away from driving an EV. What Tesla charges per kWh for Supercharging is up to them and only marginally relevant to the purchase decision, so long as it's within some reasonable parameters.

I don't think Tesla wants to get into "selling power". They aren't a power company.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I don't think Tesla wants to get into "selling power". They aren't a power company.

Unfortunately, in many states/counties/whatever jurisdictions, unless they partner with someone, they're going to have to file as a "utility" to be allowed to resell power.

I'm assuming since they're this deep into it, and have a program laid out, that they've looked into that part of it, and are either going to file, or will be partnering with various local utilities.

 

[ChadFeldheimer]

I don't think Tesla wants to get into "selling power". They aren't a power company.

With Tesla's offer to buy SolarCity, it seems clear they want to get into selling power.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Unfortunately, in many states/counties/whatever jurisdictions, unless they partner with someone, they're going to have to file as a "utility" to be allowed to resell power.

I'm assuming since they're this deep into it, and have a program laid out, that they've looked into that part of it, and are either going to file, or will be partnering with various local utilities.

I don't think they are deep into anything.

They just installed some boxes and connected them to an outlet. Who ever stops by and uses it can use it.

That's not deep.