Hydrogen vs. Battery

[acoste]

Those who do not learn from history...

Silicon Shortage Has Big Impact

a few years later.... ooops...

This is not very good example, many people in that link say that this will be solved in 3 years.

CEO Zhengrong Shi, ""We hope it will resolve in the next two to three years.""

Hill said the shortage could last longer than previously expected, about another three years, and added that demand is far exceeding supply.

"We're going to see polysilicon come online later than everyone thought," he said. But when that changes, supply will exceed demand and spot prices will drop. "It will open up the solar market," he said.


I don't read the same comments regarding Li ion batteries. And one reason for that is the chemistry. It is still not good enough. Too heavy, charges slowly. Miners need to gamble on chemistry.

 

[nwdiver]

"Japan, China and South Korea have set ambitious targets to put millions of hydrogen-powered vehicles on their roads by the end of the next decade at a cost of billions of dollars."

Why Asia's biggest economies are backing hydrogen fuel cell cars | The Japan Times

850,000 by 2030?.... LOL. It was 2.5M by 2020... What's it going to be in 2030? Hopefully ~300,000 by 2040?

 

[JRP3]

Too heavy, charges slowly.

Irrelevant for grid storage. Try again.

 

[mblakele]

"Japan, China and South Korea have set ambitious targets to put millions of hydrogen-powered vehicles on their roads by the end of the next decade at a cost of billions of dollars."

Why Asia's biggest economies are backing hydrogen fuel cell cars | The Japan Times

That article doesn’t answer the question. It just rehashes the same tired arguments we’ve debunked so many times in this thread.

I’ll expand a bit on the idea that we’re dealing with a sunk cost problem. Ten or twenty years ago, it made sense for regulators to incentivize any technology that might plausibly lead to sustainable transportation. BEV and HFCEV were two candidates. Companies responded to those incentives. Several decided to place bets on HFCEV, for various reasons. It made some sense at the time. Fast-forward to the present, and it’s becoming clear that BEV has won. But big organizations don’t turn on a dime, and it may be years yet before they write off these sunk costs.

 

[Curious George]

It seems a fallacy many have here is that if EVs drop in price enough, everyone will buy it.
But there are many people for whom slow charging electric car just doesn't work. Think about folks living in high rises in dense cities of Europe and Asia or those who park on the street. Electric charging on the road is just too expensive and too time consuming.

Even in these days of hydrogen shortage, max time people spent to refuel with hydrogen is no more than 30 mins.

The other big reason is the range. Many are trying to switch to FCEV due to their longer ranges.

 

[Saghost]

It seems a fallacy many have here is that if EVs drop in price enough, everyone will buy it.
But there are many people for whom slow charging electric car just doesn't work. Think about folks living in high rises in dense cities of Europe and Asia or those who park on the street. Electric charging on the road is just too expensive and too time consuming.

Even in these days of hydrogen shortage, max time people spent to refuel with hydrogen is no more than 30 mins.

The other big reason is the range. Many are trying to switch to FCEV due to their longer ranges.

What longer range is that? A modern Model S has a longer EPA range than any of the current FCEVs except the special stripped down "blue" version of the NEXO:

Compare Fuel Cell Vehicles

 

[nwdiver]

It seems a fallacy many have here is that if EVs drop in price enough, everyone will buy it.
But there are many people for whom slow charging electric car just doesn't work. Think about folks living in high rises in dense cities of Europe and Asia or those who park on the street. Electric charging on the road is just too expensive and too time consuming.

Even in these days of hydrogen shortage, max time people spent to refuel with hydrogen is no more than 30 mins.

The other big reason is the range. Many are trying to switch to FCEV due to their longer ranges.

If you live in Fremont and drive a Mirai it's going to take a lot longer than 30 minutes to get H2. And the solution for apartment dwellers is a law requiring charging for tenants. It's A LOT cheaper than H2 infrastructure. Overnight charging doesn't take much. 16A @ 208v is plenty.

 

[Curious George]

What longer range is that? A modern Model S has a longer EPA range than any of the current FCEVs except the special stripped down "blue" version of the NEXO:

Compare Fuel Cell Vehicles

Hello! Nexo is twice as big as the other lowly (in height) sedans you mention!
It can fill up in 5 minutes vs. minimum half an hour for 80% (and then have to leave the charger).

BTW, Nexo is so popular that dealers in Los Angeles are asking for more money than what Hyundai is leasing it for. I heard numbers like $650/mo.

If you live in Fremont and drive a Mirai it's going to take a lot longer than 30 minutes to get H2. And the solution for apartment dwellers is a law requiring charging for tenants. It's A LOT cheaper than H2 infrastructure. Overnight charging doesn't take much. 16A @ 208v is plenty.

The cheap electricity doesn't apply for those who can't charge at home and can't charge for free at work. Once you install metering etc. for tenants, cost climbs quickly. Just ask those who have charge point charges in their apartments.

 

[Saghost]

Hello! Nexo is twice as big as the other lowly (in height) sedans you mention!
It can fill up in 5 minutes vs. minimum half an hour for 80% (and then have to leave the charger).

BTW, Nexo is so popular that dealers in Los Angeles are asking for more money than what Hyundai is leasing it for. I heard numbers like $650/mo.


The cheap electricity doesn't apply for those who can't charge at home and can't charge for free at work. Once you install metering etc. for tenants, cost climbs quickly. Just ask those who have charge point charges in their apartments.

So because the Nexo is seven inches taller while being twelve inches shorter with less cargo room, less leg room, less shoulder room, and less headroom, it's somehow twice as big and deserves to be rated differently? Or do you judge solely by the space in the second row?

You're moving the goalposts again, as usual. I don't know why I bother.

 

[nwdiver]

Hello! Nexo is twice as big as the other lowly (in height) sedans you mention!
It can fill up in 5 minutes vs. minimum half an hour for 80% (and then have to leave the charger).

BTW, Nexo is so popular that dealers in Los Angeles are asking for more money than what Hyundai is leasing it for. I heard numbers like $650/mo.


The cheap electricity doesn't apply for those who can't charge at home and can't charge for free at work. Once you install metering etc. for tenants, cost climbs quickly. Just ask those who have charge point charges in their apartments.

Even $0.50/kWh would be cheaper than H2. And if you're charging overnight it won't be $0.50/kWh.

 

[mblakele]

It seems a fallacy many have here is that if EVs drop in price enough, everyone will buy it.
But there are many people for whom slow charging electric car just doesn't work. Think about folks living in high rises in dense cities of Europe and Asia or those who park on the street.

There's no fallacy. Demand for EVs exceeds production capacity. Today there's a ceiling around 40-60% of vehicles, depending on home ownership rates — but that doesn't matter because the BEV fleet is maybe 1-2% of vehicles and won't more than double every 12-24 months. Long before the fleet is 40% BEV, regulators will require apartments and offices to install chargers. This can be done as part of new construction, or as an add-on when repaving.

Electric charging on the road is just too expensive and too time consuming.

Superchargers are plenty fast enough, and cheaper than gas. You'd know this if you tried it.

Even in these days of hydrogen shortage, max time people spent to refuel with hydrogen is no more than 30 mins.

You're assuming no one else drives HFCEV. But if you're second in line, you'll be waiting an extra 30-min while the hydrogen gets happy: 1-hr total.

The other big reason is the range. Many are trying to switch to FCEV due to their longer ranges.

Have you bought your Mirai yet?

 

[Curious George]

So because the Nexo is seven inches taller while being twelve inches shorter with less cargo room, less leg room, less shoulder room, and less headroom, it's somehow twice as big and deserves to be rated differently? Or do you judge solely by the space in the second row?

You're moving the goalposts again, as usual. I don't know why I bother.

What does the 335 mile range (is that the highest) Model S cost? What does the Honda Clarity fuel cell cost?

There's no fallacy. Demand for EVs exceeds production capacity. Today there's a ceiling around 40-60% of vehicles, depending on home ownership rates — but that doesn't matter because the BEV fleet is maybe 1-2% of vehicles and won't more than double every 12-24 months. Long before the fleet is 40% BEV, regulators will require apartments and offices to install chargers. This can be done as part of new construction, or as an add-on when repaving.

Superchargers are plenty fast enough, and cheaper than gas. You'd know this if you tried it.

Hello Tesla subsidy to sell more cars! Check the rates of independent charging companies that don't sell cars, like Chargepoint and EVGO, and get back to me please.

You're assuming no one else drives HFCEV. But if you're second in line, you'll be waiting an extra 30-min while the hydrogen gets happy: 1-hr total.

More FUD of extra 30 mins wait! Where do these come from? I suggest you visit one of the busy h2 stations before coming up with these ridiculous assertions! Else you risk losing credibility in this H2 aware group.

Have you bought your Mirai yet?

Where is that used Mirai with free $15k fuel card? I am still waiting to hear from that scammer/H2 FUD author.

 

[mblakele]

What does the 335 mile range (is that the highest) Model S cost? What does the Honda Clarity fuel cell cost?

Let's talk about subsidies, shall we? How much money does Honda lose on every HFCEV? How about Toyota?

I've seen one, maybe two, Honda Clarity around here — but PHEV not HFCEV. The 2019 Mirai has about the same range as a Model 3, and it would cost about the same — if you could convince anyone to pay anywhere near MSRP.

Hello Tesla subsidy to sell more cars! Check the rates of independent charging companies that don't sell cars, like Chargepoint and EVGO, and get back to me please.

It's cute to hear an HFCEV advocate talk about subsidies. Pot, meet kettle.

The supercharger network probably breaks even. In California, the kWh price is about halfway between gas and home charging. So it makes gas look expensive, and makes home charging look cheap. That's likely to be policy. If other charging networks can't compete, maybe they're doing it wrong.

More FUD of extra 30 mins wait! Where do these come from? I suggest you visit one of the busy h2 stations before coming up with these ridiculous assertions! Else you risk losing credibility in this H2 aware group.

Where can I find one of these "busy" HFCEV refueling points, so I can check?

Oh right, no one drives HFCEVs. Not even you.

Where is that used Mirai with free $15k fuel card? I am still waiting to hear from that scammer/H2 FUD author.

Pay MSRP. It's worth it, right?

 

[Curious George]

Let's talk about subsidies, shall we? How much money does Honda lose on every HFCEV? How about Toyota?

I've seen one, maybe two, Honda Clarity around here — but PHEV not HFCEV. The 2019 Mirai has about the same range as a Model 3, and it would cost about the same — if you could convince anyone to pay anywhere near MSRP.

Where can I find one of these "busy" HFCEV refueling points, so I can check?

Just go here tonight and time 3-4 fills. Won't take you long.

You know what, you don't even need to do that! It's too easy for anyone to check how much gets dispensed over 3-4 hour window right from here, from the steepest slope.
H2 Stations - San Jose
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Oh right, no one drives HFCEVs. Not even you.

You bet!

 

[mblakele]

Just go here tonight and time 3-4 fills. Won't take you long.
View attachment 459465

Tempting, and I'd only have to drive past seven or eight supercharger locations to get there.

But I asked for a busy site, and this doesn't look like it qualifies. I'd want to go there and time a few successive fills. That doesn't look like a good bet down in SJ. First because the uptime is pretty terrible, so it might not be working at all.



And then if it is working, there might not be anyone there. Latest google street view:

Google Maps

Previous google street view: someone's actually fueling a Mirai. But just the one — there's no line.

Google Maps

So... no, this doesn't look like a busy station.

You know what, you don't even need to do that! It's too easy for anyone to check how much gets dispensed over 3-4 hour window right from here, from the steepest slope.
H2 Stations - San Jose
[View attachment 459466

Wow, aren't you embarrassed to post that? "Station is low on fuel ... Please check status before traveling". Looking at the chart it tends to be empty every day by — noon? mid-afternoon? That's if you want H70: there's no H35 at all.

TrueZero indeed.

Now, figure 5-kg per vehicle and ignore loss, so 150-kg will fill 30 vehicles. Full at 19:00, empty at... oh, say 14:00. That's about one fill every 30-min. Either it isn't busy, or that's all it can do.

Anyhow.... When are you going to give up your ICE and start driving your own HFCEV, so you too can enjoy this wonderful service?

 

[Curious George]

Tempting, and I'd only have to drive past seven or eight supercharger locations to get there.

But I asked for a busy site, and this doesn't look like it qualifies. I'd want to go there and time a few successive fills. That doesn't look like a good bet down in SJ. First because the uptime is pretty terrible, so it might not be working at all.



And then if it is working, there might not be anyone there. Latest google street view:

Google Maps

Previous google street view: someone's actually fueling a Mirai. But just the one — there's no line.

Google Maps

So... no, this doesn't look like a busy station.



Wow, aren't you embarrassed to post that? "Station is low on fuel ... Please check status before traveling". Looking at the chart it tends to be empty every day by — noon? mid-afternoon? That's if you want H70: there's no H35 at all.

TrueZero indeed.

Now, figure 5-kg per vehicle and ignore loss, so 150-kg will fill 30 vehicles. Full at 19:00, empty at... oh, say 14:00. That's about one fill every 30-min. Either it isn't busy, or that's all it can do.

Anyhow.... When are you going to give up your ICE and start driving your own HFCEV, so you too can enjoy this wonderful service?

I give up. I can't follow what you are arguing about. You claimed, there is 30 minute wait between fills.
I told you, go in the evening hour to see peak usage of back to back fills. and showed a plot that tells you how much is dispensed in 3 hour window. Now, you talk about some irrelevant points, when your claim is proven wrong.
Of course it runs out; that's the only 1-2 stations that are being filled in that area. Running out is good. So next day it can store another full truckload.
Doesn't it actually contradict YOUR point that no one is driving these cars? Why will anyone need H35 (5000 psi)? That is for buses. If you fill a 10k psi tank with H35, you only get half tank (2.5 kg max). Who would want that?
Your arguments make me wonder if you even understand the basics of hydrogen cars.
And no, nobody is going there with a totally empty tank. Typical fills are 3-4.5 kg.

That myth of 20-30 minute wait was in pre-2015 era. Today most compressors in use are much more powerful. Next gen compressors can sustain even higher peak load for rush hour fill ups. The stations are improving every year to cater to the exponential ramp in fuel cell cars. They are not a static technology. Check this H2 station from NEL. 100 kg generation in 3 hours. 500-1500 kg per day,
H2Station® • Nel Hydrogen

 

[nwdiver]

Why will anyone need H35 ( 5000 psi)?

Um... so they can get a full fill? It's not like you can just conveniently fill these things in your driveway . Seeing as how most people have to drive so far to find H2 they probably want to minimize those trips. The Mirai fills to 10,000psi.... what was that you were saying about not understanding H2 cars?

 

[mblakele]

I give up. I can't follow what you are arguing about. You claimed, there is 30 minute wait between fills.
I told you, go in the evening hour to see peak usage of back to back fills. and showed a plot that tells you how much is dispensed in 3 hour window. Now, you talk about some irrelevant points, when your claim is proven wrong.
Of course it runs out; that's the only 1-2 stations that are being filled in that area. Running out is good. So next day it can store another full truckload.
Doesn't it actually contradict YOUR point that no one is driving these cars? Why will anyone need H35 (5000 psi)? That is for buses. Your arguments makes me wonder if you even understand the basics of hydrogen cars.
And no, nobody is going there with a totally empty tank. Typical fills are 3-4.5 kg.

That myth of 20-30 minute wait was in pre-2015 era. Today most compressors in use are much more powerful. Next gen compressors can sustain even higher peak load for rush hour fill ups. The stations are improving every year to cater to the exponential ramp in fuel cell cars. They are not a static technology. Check this H2 station from NEL. 100 kg generation in 3 hours. 500-1500 kg per day,
H2Station® • Nel Hydrogen

What's my point, you ask? That no one is driving HFCEV. OK, not literally zero vehicles: it's a literary generalization; not enough to matter. In my area I can't move for Teslas, while I hardly ever see a Mirai — and I've yet to spot a Clarity HFCEV, even though I see Clarity PHEV now and then. If 30 HFCEV manage to fuel in SJ daily... sorry, but that's negligible.

Now, 2018 BEV sales in California came to about 153k, up from 95k in 2017 — 56% growth, which brings annual sales to about 1% of the total California fleet. Meanwhile "California ARB projects in-state fuel cell vehicles to reach 23,600 by 2021, and 47,200 by 2024"; that's total fleet, not annual sales. If that happens, much less than 1% of the California vehicle fleet will be HFCEV. Today it looks like around 10k-15k vehicles — negligible. Oh, and 2024 is as far out as the roadmap goes.

So what's the roadmap for HFCEV matching and surpassing BEV sales? Just in California is fine. When will it happen, and how?

 

[Curious George]

What's my point, you ask? That no one is driving HFCEV. OK, not literally zero vehicles: it's a literary generalization; not enough to matter. In my area I can't move for Teslas, while I hardly ever see a Mirai — and I've yet to spot a Clarity HFCEV, even though I see Clarity PHEV now and then. If 30 HFCEV manage to fuel in SJ daily... sorry, but that's negligible.

Now, 2018 BEV sales in California came to about 153k, up from 95k in 2017 — 56% growth, which brings annual sales to about 1% of the total California fleet. Meanwhile "California ARB projects in-state fuel cell vehicles to reach 23,600 by 2021, and 47,200 by 2024"; that's total fleet, not annual sales. If that happens, much less than 1% of the California vehicle fleet will be HFCEV. Today it looks like around 10k-15k vehicles — negligible. Oh, and 2024 is as far out as the roadmap goes.

So what's the roadmap for HFCEV matching and surpassing BEV sales? Just in California is fine. When will it happen, and how?

Patience, my dear friend! Slow and steady will win the race.
150 kg is more like 40 cars. 40 /day * 7 days = 280 cars served just from that one small station, assuming ~240 miles/week drive.
Then, there is Mountain view with 350 kg/day and San Ramon with 350 kg/day. That's another 175 cars/day or 1225 cars served
Palo Alto is also up most times. and Campbell is filled couple times week.
Now Oakland has opened, which has a huge capacity of over 600 kg of hydrogen.
New stations are all coming up with much larger capacities of 350kg+. So your concerns are being addressed.

Total fuel cell cars in California is just 7450. Yes, this is negligible compared to BEVs today. IMO, hydrogen cars are more convenient for people. Cost of fuel and cars are big concerns. Hope is, those will be solved. Toyota is already ramping up hydrogen tank production to cut costs with economy of scale. With renewable hydrogen storage and larger stations, fuel cost will also come down.
Once plug-in fuel cell cars come out, things will get real interesting.

BTW, Honda claimed 3 minute refill way back in 2016. That will be extremely hard to beat in electric cars for many years (decades?) to come.

 

[nwdiver]

IMO, hydrogen cars are more convenient for people.

If misplaced 'convenience' by ignoring the ability to fill up at home is your priority then just save your $$$ and stick with fools fuel.