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Hydrogen vs. Battery
- Thread starter siry
- Start date
"Supply chains are stressed" = product availability doesn't match demand,
ergo price increases.
Question goes to you as well. Like what other/actual green energy? Seasonal renewable storage can not be solved with batteries as per today's technology, nor with water reservoirs. Even daily source/load swings are a stretch and need large amount of batteries. And the more renewable storage battery is deployed, the less BEV can be produced.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
That's two different arguments. Stationary storage is indeed a place where H2 has potential (lots of caveats to that), however its utility in the light-duty transportation sector is null.
Toyota's 2nd Gen Mirai will likely have no more success than the 1st, and that's assuming they continue the absurd incentives.
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
For Tesla, at least, the goal is not to maximize profits.
Master Plan, Part Deux
The point of all this was, and remains, accelerating the advent of sustainable energy, so that we can imagine far into the future and life is still good.
Tesla lowers prices whenever they can — regardless of supply and demand — to further this goal.
Indeed: why would they? Sunk cost fallacy?
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Storage can use different battery technology than vehicles using different chemistries. Storage is much less dependent on weight and volume.
You want a list ?
OK:
- Hydro, the oldest, well tested and has "built-in energy storage facility" behind the dam
- Wind
- Solar
- Wave
- Tidal
- Geothermal
- pumped water
- molten salt (goes well with non-PV solar, where mirrors are used to concentrate solar energy to melt the salt in tower)
- flywheels
Flywheel energy storage - Wikipedia
High Performance Flywheel Energy Storage Systems: Temporal Power
5 MW Flywheel Energy Storage
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Also good 'ol PbSO4. There are no materials required for those that BEVs need. Industrial PbSO4s have not been sitting still and now have a cycle life on par with lithium.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Hydro:
Hoover dam: 4B kWh annually Hoover Dam | Bureau of Reclamation
That is 0.1% of the total US electricity generation (Record U.S. electricity generation in 2018 driven by record residential, commercial sales - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)) . Very few countries on the World can implement a hydropower station at the size of the Hoower Dam.
The above example shows the capabilities of the hydro storage as well. There are just not enough reservoirs on the Earth for that.
To understand the scale of it, read this: The Hoover Dam pumped hydro proposal
The link describes a proposal to use the Hoover Dam with Lake Mead to rebalance California's daily energy needs (day/night load swing). Pump the water up daytime with renewable storage, generate electricity for the night. This causes the level of Leak Mead to swing by a foot every day and 3 feet on Lake Mohave. This shows it is nearly impossible to use the Hoover Dam for multi-day or multi-week storage.
Wind:
yes, definitely, but has no storage option, depends on weather.
Solar:
yes, definitely, but has no storage option, depends on weather. Oversizing it may help a bit.
Wave
Tidal
Tidal Energy Pros and Cons - Energy Informative
"The worldwide potential for tidal power is estimated to be 700 TWh a year." Annual US electricity production = 4,000TWh. It helps for sure, but doesn't solve worldwide electricity production. Record U.S. electricity generation in 2018 driven by record residential, commercial sales - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Geothermal
This is the only one that may have "unlimited" sources. I have not read much about it. Just looking it up now: Geothermal Energy Pros and Cons - Energy Informative
"Massive potential – upper estimates show a worldwide potential of 2 terawatts (TW)." This might be enough for a good portion of the World. 2TW * 24h * 365 days = 17.5k TWh.
This source here however says: "Worldwide energy consumption – about 15 terawatts (TW) – is not anywhere near the amount of energy stored in earth." That sounds a bit too much to me.
Construction of geothermal power plants can affect the stability of land. In fact, geothermal power plants have lead to subsidence (motion of theearth’s surface) in both Germany and New Zealand.
Earthquakes can be triggered due to hydraulic fracturing, which is an intrinsic part of developing enhanced geothermal system (EGS) power plants.
Small plants are ok, but this fracturing thing is not my favorite.
pumped water
I have already addressed that above
molten salt
This has a big impact on the environment. If you drive by the one next to Las Vegas, it feels like there is a 2nd Sun on the sky. It can be deployed in the desert only. Ivanpah | World’s Largest Solar Plant in California Desert It can store energy for couple of days. Not for weeks though.
Peak power: 377 MW . It is unclear to me how much energy it can generate annually.
Comparing it to Hoover Dam: 4B kWh annually / 365 / 24 = 457 MW power on average.
If we assume that 70% of the time the station above can generate 377MW power, that's 2.3B kWh. That's 2.3B/4000B = 0.057%. We need 1739x the plant above. The area it uses is 14.2 km2. 14.2*1739 = 24,690 km2. Area of Nevada = 286,352 km2. At least it's not impossible.
Flywheels
They are quite small in the MWh range. Need thousands of these for day/night swings. I don't think they are feasible for seasonal swings.
Compressed air:
Home - NRStor
this one here is 7MWh. We need about 1,000 or more of these to cover the day/night swing of renewables/load only for California. And a lot more for seasonal swings.
"Supply chains are stressed" = product availability doesn't match demand,
ergo price increases.
Ok so the price drops 20% for every doubling. And what do you expect when the price of the EVs reaches the cost of ICE? I would expect massive demand. Nor the mining business, nor the projected battery capacity production can keep up with that in the next 15 years.
There are a lot of new companies investing in it who didn't have any presence in H2 business earlier. For example Bosch. So no, not sunk cost fallacy.
Bosch to cooperate in large-scale production of fuel cells for trucks and cars
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
What are you basing that on? Proven reserves of critical materials are RISING. Even if true that means H2 would only BEGIN to make ANY since in ~15 years....
There's also an effectively infinite supply sitting on the sea floor literally just waiting to be scooped up.
I just quoted one of my sources yesterday,
Lowering cobalt content in lithium-ion batteries outweighed by surging battery demand
"“When you take into account the many supply issues and the drop-off in exploration during the mining downturn, we are almost certainly looking at a global shortage of cobalt at some point in the next few years.”"
Panasonic for example triples their expected cobalt usage even though they said cobalt free battery is just around the corner:
After cobalt-free pledge, Panasonic to triple consumption for auto batteries: sources
It's gonna be a long rubber band game between battery manufacturers and miners until stable production volume comes up.
Right now cobalt prices are low, demand is low, miners wonder if they should invest at all. Next year demand increases, mined cobalt won't be enough, prices go up,
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nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Yep.... prices go up.... then what happens?
You're falling into the same trap Solyndra did. Poly-Si prices went up... which drove investment in Poly-Si... then prices fell and stabilized.
If demand and value of cobalt and nickel are high enough that will make sea floor mining viable unlocking a virtually infinite supply...
Also; Looks like its not that emergent...
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mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
I don't think that's conclusive, because Bosch is a supplier. They'll be happy to develop products — as long as companies like Toyota will contract to buy them. Like the presser says "Commercializing technology is one of our strengths". Now, Toyota's motives are more interesting.
This analysis says: Metal mining constraints on the electric mobility horizon | McKinsey
"Our analysis of raw material requirements for batteries, which includes a radical shift away from cobalt- to more nickel-intensive batteries, shows that with expected metal supply developments, EV adoption is likely to be challenged by availability of cobalt and class 1 nickel around 2025."
at the same time: The 2040 outlook for EV battery manufacturing | McKinsey
" Falling battery costs make it likely that the total cost of ownership for a passenger EV will reach parity with internal-combustion-engine (ICE) cars by the mid-2020s. "
"The projected battery demand from EVs produced in Europe is more than five times the volume of currently confirmed projects in Europe"
"Our analysis of raw material requirements for batteries, which includes a radical shift away from cobalt- to more nickel-intensive batteries, shows that with expected metal supply developments, EV adoption is likely to be challenged by availability of cobalt and class 1 nickel around 2025."
at the same time: The 2040 outlook for EV battery manufacturing | McKinsey
" Falling battery costs make it likely that the total cost of ownership for a passenger EV will reach parity with internal-combustion-engine (ICE) cars by the mid-2020s. "
"The projected battery demand from EVs produced in Europe is more than five times the volume of currently confirmed projects in Europe"
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Those who do not learn from history...
Silicon Shortage Has Big Impact
a few years later.... ooops...
"Japan, China and South Korea have set ambitious targets to put millions of hydrogen-powered vehicles on their roads by the end of the next decade at a cost of billions of dollars."
Why Asia's biggest economies are backing hydrogen fuel cell cars | The Japan Times
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