I don’t understand the obsession with FSD.

[DrtyJrze]

I do understand the primary reason Tesla has broken a door down into the auto industry is due to EV advancement (styling/battery tech) with a secondary benefit of self driving. What I’m having difficulty understanding is the fixation on FULL self driving.

Today, the car can handle 90% of the driving that I do, including long trips. The other 10% (city/extreme weather) I would probably never use FSD for. In my mind, the 80/20 rule applies, and it would be easier for me to drive that 10% to negate a majority of the possible issues with using a FSD system.

So my question is, do people feel they really need FULL SD for a quality of life improvement? Or is this more of an academic discussions with a fascination to break a barrier?

It seems like there are so many discussions on what the cars can’t do that many are not enjoying/taking advantage of the many things it can do today.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Full self driving would allow you to sleep in the car or watch a movie while it drives you to your destination.
It would allow your car to drop you off somewhere and then go park itself.
Even if you wouldn't want that I'm sure you can see that many others would love it.

On the other hand I'm not sure why people are so excited about Tesla FSD which appears like it will be a totally different thing.

 

[Toysla]

Conceptually, it's fresh, beautiful and euphoric. Eventually, when it becomes real, if history repeats itself, the price will go way up and come way down. Just like the Model 3's history of prices, options, schemes and offers, they get tweaked to optimize profit, packaging and value. And it's all over the air and no more need to make an appointment to visit your dealership "repair shop." My two bits.

 

[powertoold]

FSD would forever change our world in more ways than just transportation.

 

[H4RDWRK]

Imagine all the extra time you would have to do work on the road, watch movies like previously stated....

the more all cars become autonomous = the less likelihood of accidents = less stress = less claims = less down time = more lives saved = more people = more memories.

the chain effect of this successfully being implemented is astronomical.

As soon as its legal and approved for robotaxi ill buy 10 model 3’s and operate a fleet while smiling when the herd comes back home and all i gotta do is vacuum, wash, charge and store them while they go out and make money.

and i highly advise everyone start saving.

What about the semi truck?
That alone is going to disrupt heavily.

More EV’s = Cleaner Air.....

We can go on and on all day.

 

[DanCar]

... Today, the car can handle 90% of the driving that I do, including long trips. ...

What do you do while the car is driving?

 

[DrtyJrze]

What do you do while the car is driving?

I’m still paying attention, hands on wheel, etc. but it’s MUCH less taxing. I more or less just scan for the “edge” cases and not so much focused on the actual physical tasks of driving.

Personally I hate highway driving, it’s boring as hell. Hours and hours of pretty much nothing.

I also live in the suburbs where stop lights are miles apart, basically the same as highway driving. That’s why it covers 90% of my driving needs.

TBH, FSD in the city seems impossible to me. To many variables and situations I could never see a computer handling properly.

 

[DrtyJrze]

Full self driving would allow you to sleep in the car or watch a movie while it drives you to your destination.
It would allow your car to drop you off somewhere and then go park itself.
Even if you wouldn't want that I'm sure you can see that many others would love it.

On the other hand I'm not sure why people are so excited about Tesla FSD which appears like it will be a totally different thing.

True FSD definitely has many, many benefits. Not denying that. I just think the current benefits are being somewhat dismissed for something that is, IMO, far off.

I’ve learned from trading the stock years ago that Musk’s timeframe for advances in tech are extremely optimistic, to put it mildly, lol. But at the current level of capability it’s worth the $7k (to me). Any advances here on out is just icing on the cake.

 

[DanCar]

I’m still paying attention, ...

Yeah, people don't want to pay attention. Elon has made many wrong comments to the affect that it isn't far off. So there is a lot of talk of whether he is wrong or not. He has been wrong every time his statements can be proven right or wrong on this subject. In other words, every timeline he has given has been false. This has people living in the land of false beliefs and trying to defend Elon.

 

[drtimhill]

FWIW I do not think we will see FSD (level 5) any time soon at all. For 2020 I think we will see something more like NoA extended to well-sign posted rural-type roads, letting the car handle stop signs and traffic signals on these easier to handle roads. But we won't see a car that can negotiate the nightmare of crowded city streets anytime soon.

And actually, I would regard that addition to NoA as a decent and very welcome new feature for the car, and another sensible stepping-stone for FSD.

 

[DrtyJrze]

Yeah, people don't want to pay attention. Elon has made many wrong comments to the affect that it isn't far off. So there is a lot of talk of whether he is wrong or not. He has been wrong every time his statements can be proven right or wrong on this subject. In other words, every timeline he has given has been false. This has people living in the land of false beliefs and trying to defend Elon.

Hahaha, yea, Elon is out there sometimes. But I guess I look at it as if he didn't have that optimism for his visions we’d still have the Prius, Volt, and i3 to choose from...

I’ll take the optimism behind schedule over ANY of those every single time.

 

[DrtyJrze]

FWIW I do not think we will see FSD (level 5) any time soon at all. For 2020 I think we will see something more like NoA extended to well-sign posted rural-type roads, letting the car handle stop signs and traffic signals on these easier to handle roads. But we won't see a car that can negotiate the nightmare of crowded city streets anytime soon.

And actually, I would regard that addition to NoA as a decent and very welcome new feature for the car, and another sensible stepping-stone for FSD.

Agree 100%. I don’t think anyone (Tesla,Waymo, etc.) will get L5 for a long time.

IMO, I don’t think any company really wants to get to even L3, for liability purposes (at least not for personal use). But that’s another thread topic....

 

[ewoodrick]

There are a lot of people with vision issues that keep them from driving at night. FSD solves the problem
There are a lot or people with physical impairments, long term and short term (broken legs, arms, etc) that keeps them from driving.
There are a lot of seniors that are having issues driving, especially on Interstates and in cities
There's a lot of people driving, but not paying attention and causing accidents
There are a HUGE number of deaths due to driver error that could be reduced, is decreasing the 30,000+ deaths annually by just 10,000 worth it?
Is decreasing the congestion and increasing speeds worth it by having the majority of cars with FSD?

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Because we're getting old.

If we don't get serious with FSD soon than we won't have FSD when some idiot at the DMV takes our license away.

 

[Type 5]

Because we're getting old.

If we don't get serious with FSD soon than we won't have FSD when some idiot at the DMV takes our license away.

I had this exact conversation with an 82 year old friend of mine - independence, when needed or wanted. Simple and to the point!

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I think there are two ways to look at this. There is Tesla's obsession with FSD, and then there are companies like Waymo/Cruise/etc who are developing L4 (and beyond) self-driving cars.

They're different approaches, but ultimately they're developing robotaxis.

With Robotaxi's the real goal is to refine transportation as we know it, and to enable people the luxury of being able to live without having the burden of maintaining a car, insurance, money for fuel/gas, and the physical/mental ability too drive.

It's not about eliminating transportation via a car, but it's too free the car from the burden of a human driver.

Humans requiring parking near where they work/shop/live, and so this leads to a lot of physical duplication of space.
In most cases humans travel alone, and this places a huge cost on the requirement of infrastructure.
Human driving requires a considerable amount of space between us, and the vehicle in front of us.
Humans don't have telepathy and can't tell other drivers what we're like to do so we have to slow down the entire act of driving to use other methods of communication on who has the right of way.
Humans are also error prone, and any time you drive there is a reasonably high chance (compared to other daily activities) of getting into a costly accident.

Of course none of this answers the question as to why Tesla, and Elon Musk specifically is so obsessed with it. I think the answer is that Elon underestimated the challenge it presented, and instead decided to charge full steam ahead. Only the new approach is simply about adding one thing at a time.

The other thing that's changed is for new buyers the two approaches are separated by a huge $7K option.

So if you don't really care about FSD then you simply don't get that package, and that frees you from all the drama with it.

 

[Mo City]

Count me a huge skeptic FSD will happen the way people think it will.

However, if it does become a reality, FSD is as big a paradigm shift for transportation as the movement to EVs.

 

[drtimhill]

Count me a huge skeptic FSD will happen the way people think it will.

However, if it does become a reality, FSD is as big a paradigm shift for transportation as the movement to EVs.

See my post above on my guesses on what we will see with FSD.

 

[cwerdna]

I think there are two ways to look at this. There is Tesla's obsession with FSD, and then there are companies like Waymo/Cruise/etc who are developing L4 (and beyond) self-driving cars.

They're different approaches, but ultimately they're developing robotaxis.

With Robotaxi's the real goal is to refine transportation as we know it, and to enable people the luxury of being able to live without having the burden of maintaining a car, insurance, money for fuel/gas, and the physical/mental ability too drive.

Another big reason why "ride share" companies like Uber and Lyft are interested in robotaxis and full-self driving is that potentially, that might be their only path to profitability, by taking having to pay the human driver out of the equation.

+1 on all the scenarios ewoodrick posted. My parents, esp. my dad are in the boat of not being able to see well when it's dark out so driving in the dark isn't that safe for them. And, maybe in the next 5-10 years, one or both of them may not be able to safely drive any longer. We will all be in that boat once we're old enough.

Public transportation choices aren't that great where they live and are downright useless where I live.

The military is also interested in autonomous driving so that humans don't need to be put in harm's way for supply convoys in dangerous areas/conflict zones. It's mentioned at The DARPA Grand Challenge: Ten Years Later "The longer-term aim was to accelerate development of the technological foundations for autonomous vehicles that could ultimately substitute for men and women in hazardous military operations, such as supply convoys." and Q&A

DARPA's mission is to leverage ingenuity and research to develop transformational technologies that give our armed forces a decisive edge. One promising area is that of autonomous ground vehicles which will save lives by performing many of the hazardous battlefield functions that currently place our troops in harm's way.

 

[lafrisbee]

Blood Pressure..plain and simple. I won't have inner-road rage any longer. I want black out windows as well. The less I see of the asshats the better my world will be.
I've even tossed the idea of being 20-30% slower than I drive. That's a good trade-off if I don't have to deal with other people.