TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

I'm a Production, and here's my story (Sublimaze1 - P188)

Discussion in 'Model S: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by sublimaze1, Oct 16, 2012.

  1. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2010
    Messages:
    6,095
    Location:
    Redwood Shores, CA
    I see. Thanks! I'm none the wiser regarding this sequencing business so, I'll just sit tight and wait for my delivery notification :) If I don't hear by late November, would have to ask PenFed to extend the window for my approved loan.
     
  2. efusco

    efusco Moderator - Model S & X forums

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2009
    Messages:
    4,473
    Location:
    Nixa, Missouri, United States
    Just had a convo with my delivery specialist a little while after George's post. He acknowledged the poor communication, couldn't say if the Sig delays would mean a delay for my R delivery, and specifically said that the R reservations WILL be delivered before the Ps.

    He said that VIN #s are only available ~2 days before the car enters production, and thus could not explain the Rs and Ps who have been given their VINs.

    Just hope to take delivery before snow flies...


    Evan, Via Tapatalk
     
  3. teslasguy

    teslasguy MSP P#1117

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2012
    Messages:
    672
    Location:
    West Chester, Pa
    I just had a nice chat with my delivery specialist as well and she was very clear that the Rs and Ps are all lumped together as GPs and that they will be built sequentially from number 1 on.
    She said that the numbers are NOT reset at the end of the Rs and that they are intermingled. The Rs have no build preference over the Ps. This is the second time I have been told this now by a Tesla rep.
     
  4. Tempus

    Tempus Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2010
    Messages:
    325
    Location:
    Virginia
    I think from these two posts that we take the message that "we just don't know" if the R's and P's are intermingled or not. And frankly, does it really matter? I would think by the time they are building those that we're only talking about a couple of weeks at most either way depending on the ordering.
     
  5. efusco

    efusco Moderator - Model S & X forums

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2009
    Messages:
    4,473
    Location:
    Nixa, Missouri, United States
    Well, that is interesting. I'm pretty sure that my original P number changed to a lower R number once I switched from P to R.
     
  6. aviators99

    aviators99 Model S - R140

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2010
    Messages:
    1,451
    Location:
    Weston, Florida, United States
    Your specialist is certainly wrong. How else would you explain my R number when the same day someone got a P number that was close to or above 2000?
     
  7. radinator

    radinator Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2012
    Messages:
    94
    Location:
    SF Bay Area
    sublimaze1, Thanks for the thread. I'm P214, so not long after you I hope. I've taken the attitude that my Model S will get here when it gets here, especially with all that the Signature Editions people (both U.S. and Canada) are going thru. But it is still nice to see a light at the end of the tunnel, and have a rough idea of when I might be seeing my Model S for the first time.
     
  8. teslasguy

    teslasguy MSP P#1117

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2012
    Messages:
    672
    Location:
    West Chester, Pa
    Well, we'll certainly know soon enough how this plays out. The first time I was told Rs and Ps are all part of the GP build with no build priority for Rs (other than their numbers) was from an Ownership Experience Rep at HQ and the second time was from my Delivery Specialist on the East Coast. It really is too bad that we just can't get consistent and proactive information about this stuff from them.
     
  9. KBF

    KBF Model S 2017

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2009
    Messages:
    557
    Location:
    Steinbach, MB, Canada
    Keep in mind George B is the one who invented the Apple "Genius"... I have not met one that actually was. Some company-wide (or at least "specialist"-wide) talking points are in order. A mass email to employees with FAQ's would be useful. Or a real, updated, official FAQ for issues like these.
     
  10. aviators99

    aviators99 Model S - R140

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2010
    Messages:
    1,451
    Location:
    Weston, Florida, United States
    I'm not sure how we'll know soon enough, considering your parenthetical "other than the numbers". Let's say a bunch of Ps get delivered before my R140. We don't learn anything. Unless 2,000 Ps get delivered before my R140, I got a big benefit from my R number. When I made my reservation, I had a choice of just taking a normal production number, which was around P2000, or getting the sponsorship of my Roadster-owning friend, and getting R140. Your "other than their numbers" doesn't really fit in.
     
  11. bmek

    bmek Member

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2012
    Messages:
    159
    Location:
    Monte Sereno, California
    I’ve been thinking about the prioritization of Rs and Ps, and the logic behind what TSLA is doing. Let me put on a manufacturing hat on for a moment and hypothesize ...

    TSLA is mixing the Rs and Ps, within reason, to allow them to create batches of similar configurations. Mixing the Rs and Ps allows the factory to increase its overall output, at a given consistency (quality), over doing strictly Rs or Ps. Also, mixing the Rs and Ps allows more time for each group to finalize their order. TSLA can ‘pull’ Rs forward into the production mix, while keeping the Ps in close sequence. This may give some benefit to Roadster Friends and Family.

    The ultimate goal of a manufacturing system is consistency (quality = low variability), low cost, flexibility and speed (fast).

    When starting a manufacturing operation, especially for TSLA, the focus is on quality. Then speed, then flexibility. Low cost is a function of volume and the other components all working together. Of course, gross margin is, to some extent, a function of the sales process and the ability to sell inherently higher margin vehicles.

    Initially, to focus on quality and speed, it makes sense to have ‘batches’ of similar configurations. The flexibility comes later, when every vehicle is configured differently and the manufacturing line operates at speed producing, for example, different color vehicles with different options and battery packs, one after the other.

    Having a larger pool of similar configured vehicles allows for batching of vehicles so fine tuning the manufacturing process is easier while production can be faster (than otherwise). GeorgeB referred to this in his email when he stated, ‘In some weeks it meant we had to reach forward in the sequence order to find cars that were not impacted by a particular décor or option, and in some cases the absence of a particular décor or option pushed cars back.’
    Also, having insight into the potential ‘pool’ with as much confidence as possible simplifies the batching. The information system supporting the manufacturing is evolving at the same time.

    With that as a background, having pools of Rs and Ps, with as many confirmed (locked) configurations enables TSLA to create similar batches taking vehicles from both pools. If there is a configuration of Rs that coincide with Ps then the two can be combined in one batch. Having a two week delivery window determines the size of the batches, within reason.

    The prioritization of the batches is influenced by multiple factors and, all things being equal, the highest margin vehicles may be produced first.
     
  12. teslasguy

    teslasguy MSP P#1117

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2012
    Messages:
    672
    Location:
    West Chester, Pa
    Let me try and explain in a bit more detail my statements that you refer to. First, I was simply stating what I have been told by two different reps at different times and locations. However, those responses still leave unanswered questions such as you have posed. So I was just thinking (but did not spell out) that (hypothetically) if Tesla assigned 400 slots after the Sigs for Rs (Roadster friends/family) and then started the P numbering as a continuation from there (so the first P# is 401), then I could see how you should gain an advantage by simply being a lower P number at this point. But let me be clear this was just doing some "what if" thinking on my part. This wouldn't even be an issue if we could just get a clear and consistent answer from Tesla. I think I've seen people post with P#s as low as P83, so that would seem to indicate that my postulation isn't correct. However, do we have any knowledge of duplicate numbers between R & P so far? If so I've missed it. So, it seems all we're left with is simply watching what happens. In other words we'll soon see how this all really plays out as the first 1000 or so GP cars are built and delivered.
    How about this... R140 gets delivered to Weston, Fl (where my nephew lives) followed quickly by P1117 to the western burbs of Philly? :biggrin:
     
  13. aviators99

    aviators99 Model S - R140

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2010
    Messages:
    1,451
    Location:
    Weston, Florida, United States
    Yes, I think you pointed out your own contradiction. There are even single digit P numbers that are out there. If the R and P numbers are mixed (other than the standard options batching about which I certainly agree with bmek), they would have either had to:

    1) Just change the letter as numbers were assigned, based on whether or not they were Roadster owners/F&F
    2) Held back 400(+/-) R numbers for Roadster owners/F&F

    We know that number one is not true because of my fact that the Ps were close to 2,000 when I was assigned R140.
    We know that number two is not true because of what you stated in this post (that you've seen p83), and that I've seen even lower.

    I guess a third option could have been that a subset of numbers could have been held back for potential R numbers...it was suggested by someone else here, but I can't remember who it was. The issues with that are:

    1) How many do you hold back, if not all of them? What would happen if you ran out?
    2) I think I've seen a Tesla statement saying that there are 400+ R reservation holders. If that's true, coupled with the fact that the highest we've seen is in the 400s, it doesn't seem possible.

    I *do* agree that it's conspicuous that there have not been any reported overlapped numbers between P and R, but I simply don't know how to explain it other than coincidence, and I don't think what actually happens will really tell us what went on. I'm looking for theories that can't be disproven, and I haven't seen any yet!

    Lastly, I like your proposed delivery order for those two vehicles, as long as they are in November. :)
     
  14. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2011
    Messages:
    13,198
    Location:
    Sarasota, FL
    I heard from someone in Fremont just recently that all Sigs will be built before GP (and ordering will not necessarily match sequence due to a myriad of factors), then the RFF GP's will come before regular GP's afterward. Scanning through reports it seems that those GP people who had delivery windows (now stated to be incorrect) had called ownership experience directly and it's also clear that Tesla has stopped giving out windows so far in advance (at least for the time being).

    Hopefully we can get this thread back on topic now?
    :wink:
     
  15. josh

    josh Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2008
    Messages:
    58
    I can definitively say this is not true.

    Being on the R list has made my delivery date much, much earlier than if I were on the P list at the time of my reservation. How do I know? Well, my car is "in production" now for a November-December delivery, and I would have had a 5-digit P # if I wasn't an RFF, which is a late 2012 date. There is absolutely no question that R list is sequenced ahead of P list.

    However, I'm sure there's individual variation -- R300 might be delivered before R200 due to geography, batching, parts availability, or any random factor -- there's no promise of true sequential deliver -- and thus P180 might be delivered before R480... but the idea that my R designation is cosmetic but that my actual production slot is based on my time of reservation is false.
     
  16. XK8driver

    XK8driver Member

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2009
    Messages:
    34
    Location:
    Virginia
    I'm P14 and have not heard anything since I signed the MVA and was given a "Nov/Dec" delivery. I want the car done right so I'll continue to wait, but it is frustrating to hear about higher P numbers getting finalized delivery dates!
     
  17. teslasguy

    teslasguy MSP P#1117

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2012
    Messages:
    672
    Location:
    West Chester, Pa
    #37 teslasguy, Oct 18, 2012
    Last edited: Oct 19, 2012
    Well, I have now received a "clarification" update that hopefully helps clarify the sequence issues for everyone. The call I got this evening said that 1) in fact the Rs will be the first built after the US Sigs are done, 2) contrary to what I'd been previously told, the sequence numbers started over after all the Rs. I am P1117 and had been previously told that my number was in effect 2117 as the sequence numbers did NOT start over after the Rs. The information I was given this evening was that information was incorrect. So based upon this new info I am now in effect something like number 2500+ (1000 sigs, 450+ Rs and then my number of P1117). 3) The Canadian Sigs will be "blended" in with the US post Sig production builds. What wasn't clear is exactly how that happens. Does that mean the Canadian Sigs start getting built along with the US Rs, or do they start along with the US Ps, and do they carry any preferential build treatment over the US production builds. The whole Canadian build issue is still clear as mud to me. And of course of most import to me is just how my build/delivery will be impacted by this "blending". My biggest concern now is whether or not I should even expect to see my car in 2012. Based upon this new info and the delays we're now seeing I'm feeling (for the first time) very exposed to the possibility of not seeing delivery this year. This could really be a financial body slam for me and cause me to seriously reconsider everything. I'm a P85 config that is pretty loaded with options. Total cost with tax is over $107k. If my car is delayed beyond year end I am now exposed to the concern of losing the $7500 tax credit I've been planning for this tax year along with a $3500 Pa tax rebate for this year. As I've said on these threads many times in the past I'm a huge Tesla fan, supporter and stockholder. However, this ongoing fiasco of communication misfires and delays is really wearing me out. I've been pretty much a Tesla evangelist now for well over 3 years, and people are always asking me when I'm getting my new car. At this point I just shrug it off and pretty much am feeling embarrassed by even discussing it. What a shame. :confused:
     
  18. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2010
    Messages:
    6,095
    Location:
    Redwood Shores, CA
    My eternal sliding window to delivery of "roughly a couple of months" has prompted an Australian co-worker to term the car "Teaser Model S" ;)

    Yeah, taxes are going to hurt...
     
  19. joefee

    joefee Over 2 Million TMC page views

    Joined:
    May 29, 2011
    Messages:
    898
    Location:
    CA
    I'm getting a headache :confused: …. It will get here when it gets here !
     
  20. smorgasbord

    smorgasbord Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2011
    Messages:
    2,379
    Location:
    SF Bay Area
    Don't forget to account for holes in the reservation numbers. Some R people might have upgraded to Sig. Some R people may have deferred. Some R people may have canceled. Similarly with the P's before you. So, that reduces your actual number.


    Yeah, I've been wondering about this. That potentially (probably?) adds another 200 to the mix before you. Which I think probably fills in the holes of the dropouts before you.

    I think the best guide to who's before you is when you contacted to finalize your build. We saw that US Sig went first, then US Rs, then US Productions. I never actually saw when Canadian Sigs got to finalize. If that happened during R's that's one thing, if it happened right around P1 that's another, and if it happened coincident with a later US P that's something else.

    So if Tesla does the high end of the revised 2012 guidance - 3000 cars, then you're probably fine.
    If they only reach the low end - 2500 cars, then you're close.
     

Share This Page