Impact of 4680 cells?

[DanCar]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1394593654614937603

What do you think the impact of 4680 cells will be on the Model Y?
On battery day did Tesla say it would hold twice as much energy for half the cost?
400 mile range? Will price be higher?
What is going to happen at Fremont once Austin gets going full steam in a year?

Related thread:

Panasonic to Start 4680 Cell Production in Nevada April 2021

This is great news, Panasonic is starting (at least test) production of the new 4680 battery this April. While not a guarantee of mass production anytime soon, having a second factory producing the new 4680 cells will help Tesla convert its fleet to the new architecture sooner. The continuous...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[DanCar]

Articles from InsideEvs and Teslarati:

1. Tesla Model Y from Giga Texas will launch with 4680 cells, confirms Elon Musk
2. https://insideevs.com/news/508103/tesla-confirms-texas-modely-4680/amp/

Teslarati wonders if Tesla is downplaying 4680 cells. It is to Tesla's advantage to downplay, so that people don't wait for the new batteries. Will they arrive early in Model S and X?

 

[whisperingshad]

Lower cost for them, same price for us. Less batteries needed = less weight = same range. Maybe a 100kw option?

 

[mark95476]

It sounds like Tesla was sandbagging and downplaying the 4680, even though they've had a factory for a while and were probably stockpiling cells.

- Both front and rear castings reduce weight and increase stiffness.
- MY will be quicker, less complex, and cheaper to build.
- 4680 packs reduce weight with higher energy density.
- Lots of potential options here, but Tesla is set up for volume production so I don't think they're going back to having options to select a pack size.
- This is great for my CT reservation, assuming it'll have the 4680s. There'll be lots of vehicles driving around providing data.

We've all known this, but it's going to throw a wrench into the entire market.

 

[EpicPants]

Is it worth holding out for the 4680 version? That's the big question on many minds

 

[DanCar]

From a financial perspective, it is almost always better to wait, but new car buying is usually an emotional decision.

 

[brkaus]

From a financial perspective, it is almost always better to wait, but new car buying is usually an emotional decision.

Even better to wait and then buy used.

of course, where is the fun in that!

 

[silverstoned83]

Is it worth holding out for the 4680 version? That's the big question on many minds

I have no doubt that the benefits of the 4680 design will be quite desirable. The faster charge rate, reduced thermal limitations/requirements, increased efficiency are going to be impressive. Having said that, personally I would prefer to invest in a solution that has undergone some revisions/refinements after being put into service for some amount of time. After all, this is a massive change in the battery department, so there will inherently be a lot learned/discovered once they start delivering cars that use the new cell, and structural design.

One question I have is whether the 4680's will be integrated into the MY using a structural design, or if they will simply reconfigure the existing battery pack design so that it uses 4680's instead. If they choose to go the non structural route, that would alleviate some of my early adopter concerns.

 

[EpicPants]

Money aside--again, buying a new car is almost never wise--I'm concerned about getting delivery of a MYP in the next two months, only to learn that in the next X months the MYP will be significantly faster with significantly better range. And that these improvements cannot be realized on existing MYPs. Granted, one could trade in or sell their 6 month old MYP, but the thought of that is crazy even if money doesn't matter.

 

[CrownDad]

Money aside--again, buying a new car is almost never wise--I'm concerned about getting delivery of a MYP in the next two months, only to learn that in the next X months the MYP will be significantly faster with significantly better range. And that these improvements cannot be realized on existing MYPs. Granted, one could trade in or sell their 6 month old MYP, but the thought of that is crazy even if money doesn't matter.

Feeling exactly the same way

 

[ralph142]

Buckle up, it is always thus with Teslas.

 

[brkaus]

Unlike ICE cars, EV cars are currently at a point in the development curve that has very frequent innovations.

 

[DanCar]

Unlike ICE cars, EV cars are currently at a point in the development curve that has very frequent innovations.

The general rule of thumb is 8% battery improvement per year.

 

[whisperingshad]

now they just need to work on quality control and hire WAY more mechanics.

 

[MYMY21]

AFAIAC, there will always be improvements. I am awaiting delivery on a MY now. It's a great car at a time when I need one. News about battery and other improvements are great for my next Tesla down the road.

 

[BagheeraNY]

I may have an incorrect understanding, but my understanding is that the 4680s and structural battery pack will be in Model Ys from Texas - but not on the Ys out of CA. If that is true and the differences between the two are so amazing, who would want to buy Ys from the CA plant once the cars are coming out of Texas?

 

[DanCar]

... the 4680s and structural battery pack will be in Model Ys from Texas - but not on the Ys out of CA. If that is true and the differences between the two are so amazing, who would want to buy Ys from the CA plant once the cars are coming out of Texas?

Good question. Texas plant will be able to more than double Model Y production capacity. So anyone not naive knows a price drop is coming. The Fremont Model Y's may become the new standard range, while the next gen Model Y's from Texas maybe the new long range with 400+ miles of range.

 

[whisperingshad]

Good question. Texas plant will be able to more than double Model Y production capacity. So anyone not naive knows a price drop is coming. The Fremont Model Y's may become the new standard range, while the next gen Model Y's from Texas maybe the new long range with 400+ miles of range.

Or they drop the SR and only doing the P and LR there, and do a LR+, P+ in Austin?

 

[TomServo]

My hopes aside from cost and weight reductions would be to be able to charge at a higher rate for longer periods of time. Right now my LR AWD will hold about 140-145 kW until about 40% SOC and then start to throttle. If they could hold that to say 60% or even 70% (same on a V3) that would be a game-changer. 15-minute charges would be the norm.

 

[swheat6345]

I thought Tesla had stated that the Texas factory would serve the Eastern part of the country as far as MY production. Maybe, I misunderstood.