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Impact of 4680 cells?
- Thread starter DanCar
- Start date
whisperingshad
Active Member
Probably earnings call. FYI 1B+ profit this quarter.
Volume production isn't ready.
Volume production isn't ready.
Dasbooty
Member
According to today's earnings call - Elon now says the Model Y will come first from Austin. Maybe they have to sort out the 4680s before building a whole new production line?
Basically they're still figuring out production line issues for the truck and they don't want to start until they can rapidly scale. So they're going to focus on the lines they already have perfected and are ready to scale. They didn't say it explicitly but I think issues with the 4680s is part of it, and also why they're pushing the semi to next year sometime; it just takes too many batteries.
So that's a change from just a week ago, when EM tweeted saying CT would be first.
It also says to me that Fremont will continue as source for the MY for a while yet. The current flyover videos of GigaTexas show progress but not anywhere near completion.
If 4680 battery production isn't ready, what effect does that have on V2 MY?
Will front MegaCasts wait for 4680 Structural Battery Packs? Will a structural pack be made with 2170 batteries (that would make sense...) ?
Wolfhausen
Member
Hoping for front castings and a structural 2170 pack. That would make sense as it will vastly improve the Achilles heel of Telsa, fit and finish. It shouldn't be too difficult to incorporate the 4680s into and existing structural battery. Also the castings and SBP increase production rates and decrease costs, so it's a win/win.
On the other hand, it'll likely make repair costs go up substantially. - if the large castings get damaged, the repairability is way lower (replace the whole cast? try to weld it? total the car?)
Musk did say during the Earnings Call that Tesla has a backup plan in case 4680 is delayed. It's at 90% but the last 10% is always difficult. But what that is was not defined.
The 2170 is 21x70mm. The 4680 is 46x80mm. SBP relies on the battery casing for it's dimensions and structural integration.
Conceptually it may be thought of as an easy change. Chassis design and integration-wise, maybe not.
Terminator857
Active Member
Tesla said during today's earnings call that production of 4680 cells works on small / medium scale. Large scale there are a couple engineering wrinkles to work out. Large scale production equipment has been ordered. One issue mentioned was dimples on the cathode when material is pressed. Doesn't happen on test production line, but happens on large scale production line.
Elon said it would take 11 months after start of production to reach mass production of Model-Y at Austin as it did in Shanghai.
Elon said it would take 11 months after start of production to reach mass production of Model-Y at Austin as it did in Shanghai.
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Yeah I'm expecting this too. I'm probably better off buying a MY now and then trading in for a new MY two or three years from now.
That's exactly the conclusion I've come to. Improvements on the Y are still on a steep upscale so there's always going to be something 'great' just over the horizon. But I sort of feel like in two years the physical configuration will have matured--4680, battery pack, castings, maybe a new suspension, headlights, maybe yet another FSD computer, etc. And presumable range will be way up, charging speeds down, and pricing down.
So I've decided the best thing is just get one now, enjoy it for two or three years, then get the fully realized second generation Y with probably a LOT more capability for less money and keep it 'forever'.
This thread highlights something puzzling about Teslas. With each passing year, Teslas improve so much, many are hesitant to buy...
If they get that much better each year, older ones aren't nearly as good as newer ones. Yet, for some reason, the old ones hold their value very well. Strange.
If they get that much better each year, older ones aren't nearly as good as newer ones. Yet, for some reason, the old ones hold their value very well. Strange.
In this little zone, although I'm not doing it I think it's understandable. If you think by waiting 6 - 9 months you might get 120 miles more range, air suspension, and a $10K tax credit, I can understand it. It's not like you're waiting 6 - 9 months for matte on the console, self-dimming mirrors, and double-paned windows.
Again, I'm not waiting, but I can see that the next year isn't your normal incremental improvement window.
Put it this way, if all that comes to occur, there's no way I'm not trading up, but money is no issue for me. For folks who have to really maximize best value out of every dollar I can easily see why they'd wait a year. Shoot, by then production may have caught up and baseline pricing might be dropping too.
The onset of additional tax rebates will drive prices up.
Note that Tesla LOWERED prices as rebates diminished over the last year. (note also that college tuition rose to meet Federal Student Loan availability)
Of course, supply contraints and supply/demand imbalance also caused price rises.
Competitors to Tesla are going to be more supply constrained for batteries than Tesla.
This again is opportunity for Tesla to raise prices.
Tesla will likely keep range constant, even with the new 4680 cells, until competition forces range increases.
Then Tesla will raise prices for longer range battery packs.
Tesla has achieved a point of inflection in BEV's, and with that, pricing power.
BUY NOW.
Note that Tesla LOWERED prices as rebates diminished over the last year. (note also that college tuition rose to meet Federal Student Loan availability)
Of course, supply contraints and supply/demand imbalance also caused price rises.
Competitors to Tesla are going to be more supply constrained for batteries than Tesla.
This again is opportunity for Tesla to raise prices.
Tesla will likely keep range constant, even with the new 4680 cells, until competition forces range increases.
Then Tesla will raise prices for longer range battery packs.
Tesla has achieved a point of inflection in BEV's, and with that, pricing power.
BUY NOW.
Personally I disagree. I think Tesla will use the cost advantage to claim market share. I do think prices will remain the same until production ramps up, but by the end of 2022 when Berlin and Texas are online cranking at 100% and there's some legitimate competition to the current state of vehicles I think Tesla will use their cost advantage to crush Ford and GM.
Regardless, I agree, if you can, buy now. But there may be people that can't buy twice who might be better off waiting a year because they stand to get a lot more car, and potentially for less money depending on pricing and credits.
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