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To me this sounds as if he's confirming the existence of a non structural 4680 pack, i.e. since there is no public company information about a non structural 4680 pack he won't confirm its existence.
That sentence is hard to interpret, but I guarantee they have non-structural 4680 packs for testing. They'll run a lot of 4680s in mules which aren't engineered to have the pack be part of the structure.

Here's the Reddit thread where he says it's the new 18650 Plaid pack. They signed one back in February and signed the first production pack in May.
 
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Continuing the 4680 pack discussion some selection from TheMightyFuji who seems to be very credible:


To me this sounds as if he's confirming the existence of a non structural 4680 pack, i.e. since there is no public company information about a non structural 4680 pack he won't confirm its existence.







I think in his various posts he has pretty much confirmed both the non-structural 4680 as being a next-step insertion into one of the models (likely Y at Berlin/Texas, possibly S or X at Fremont), and also the 4680 for stationary storage. The stationary 4680 may not be the same chemical composition as the high-end vehicle 4680.
 
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Not so, Moore's Law says nothing regarding the physics involved in antenna size vs beam width vs frequency.

And... Ya canna change the laws of physics.
Perhaps not, however, transceiver sensitivity and miniaturization has progressed steadily for decades. With more capable receiver tech, antenna size can be reduced by using sizes related to smaller harmonic divisions of the wavelength.

I fully expect Starlink receivers to get smaller over time. How much time? I couldn't say.

If only there were a disruptive, first-principles-physics-based company interested in developing the tech. ;)
 
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Perhaps not, however, transceiver sensitivity and miniaturization has progressed steadily for decades. With more capable receiver tech antenna size can be reduced by using sizes related to smaller harmonic divisions of the wavelength.

I fully expect Starlink receivers to get smaller over time. How much time? I couldn't say.

If only there were a disruptive, first-principles-physics-based company interested in developing the tech. ;)
My base issue is that Moore's Law is related to transistor density in high density circuits.

Recievers can get smaller due to process improvements (better sensitivity), however nothing on that side of things will improve beam size. So the physical selectivity gets worse as does the transmission spread. Sure, they could use a wider beam if they boost the satellite sensitivity, but then you get interference from the other user terminals. Likewise, a wider beam results in more bleedover from nearby sattelites.

Raising the frequency would reduce antenna size, but that is not a Moore's law thing and requires a completely different satellite (and FCC license) than the current constellation has.
 
Not so, Moore's Law says nothing regarding the physics involved in antenna size vs beam width vs frequency.

And... Ya canna change the laws of physics.

Moore's law is about the laws related to manufacturing silicon chips, but loosely is applied for all technical progressions.
While laws of physics cannot be changed, they will be understood better over time, engineers will make breakthroughs as years progress, as well as cheat

If you are thinking that the 1st/2nd iteration of the antenna is going to be the last, then I think you need to look at all technology advances.
Also who says that vehicles will have to have the antenna AS-IS. Engineers can develop surface material in other form factors that are more sensible to being used in the car.(+this is the cheating part)

Not worried about the how(vehicles will communicate via starlink), but why (if there is a business case which makes, saves money for Tesla) it will go into R&D and likely will get done (longer event horizon)

(For the record, I am a Electrical/Computer Engg myself, so I think I too understand a bit of these thing- here and there :) and ain't just shooting from the hip. From past posts I think you are also in similar field/fields. cheers!!) :)
 
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Moore's law is about the laws related to manufacturing silicon chips, but loosely is applied for all technical progressions.
While laws of physics cannot be changed, they will be understood better over time, engineers will make breakthroughs as years progress, as well as cheat

If you are thinking that the 1st/2nd iteration of the antenna is going to be the last, then I think you need to look at all technology advances.
Also who says that vehicles will have to have the antenna AS-IS. Engineers can develop surface material in other form factors that are more sensible to being used in the car.

Not worried about the how(vehicles will communicate via starlink), but why (if there is a business case which makes, saves money for Tesla) it will go into R&D and likely will get done (longer event horizon)

(For the record, I am a Electrical/Computer Engg myself, so I think I too understand a bit of these things and ain't just shooting from the hip. From past posts I thing you are also in similar field/fields. cheers!!) :)

Sure, but the silicon is not the limiting factor (in the current setup) and a reader might come away thinking antennas will shrink in half every 18 months.

Key drivers are:
Energy collection vs sensitivity
Directionally vs rejection

Increased reciever sensitivity can offset reduced antenna size (less energy collection), but directionally is still directly tied to size and wavelength.
Pulling the satellites closer would help with both issues, but increases fuel requirements.
A sparse array (with suitably rigid frame) could reduce costs, but needs to be the same overal size for directionally (will be worse due to less elements), but only has the energy collection of the active area.
Raising the communication frequency would allow for smaller antennas with the same beam width, assuming sensitivity is sufficient, but that would be a sattelite change, not just a ground station thing (plus I think it needs the same number of elements).

Of course, it could be that the current antenna has more performance than is needed, and could be shunk with current tech.
It is possible to make smaller units now, but the system would likely need to operate in a lower performance mode (lower data rate, fewer cells per km^2, time division multiplexing). Reducing the steering angle would also allow a downsizing.

A high gimble rate parabolic could be smaller (in crossection), but worse in volume.

In general, Starlink is best for low density distribution. Teaming with cellular providers solves a lot of issues that a Starlink only setup would have. Sure, for off grid/ remote applications, mobile Starlink makes sense, but less so in urban/ higher density areas where the majority of the cars would be.
 
In general, Starlink is best for low density distribution. Teaming with cellular providers solves a lot of issues that a Starlink only setup would have. Sure, for off grid/ remote applications, mobile Starlink makes sense, but less so in urban/ higher density areas where the majority of the cars would be.

This part is true, and will drive the Business case as to whether it makes sense to have starlink in the car or not. If not, then antenna size don't matter.
If there is a business case to have starlink in cars, Engg will likely figure out a solution, and the solution might not involve the current antenna as-is.
 
This part is true, and will drive the Business case as to whether it makes sense to have starlink in the car or not. If not, then antenna size don't matter.
If there is a business case to have starlink in cars, Engg will likely figure out a solution, and the solution might not involve the current antenna as-is.
Sure, sure, and as a bridge over for areas without cellular, degraded performance and density is not as much of an issue and a smaller antenna would work with the current constellation.
I think semi would make a lot of sense for Starlink, and the air deflector provides a spot for it.
Going a little crazy here, one could even envision a future where Tesla Semi density is high enough that they are mobile relay links between Starlink and cars. A mesh/ packet network with terrible latency...
 
Moore's law is about the laws related to manufacturing silicon chips, but loosely is applied for all technical progressions.
Except there is an inescapable problem because they are already near the SNR limit. The only way to get adequate receive power on the antenna is to either increase the satellite transmit power (much larger solar arrays on the satellite required) or shrink the spot size (much larger antenna on the satellite).. You might think they could just reduce the wavelength but that won't work because there is a big region of serious atmospheric absorption just above the operating frequency. Any of those approaches (if they were feasible) would also obsolete all of the existing satellites.

Sorry for the O/T but this Starlink-to-Tesla fever really needs to end.
 
Except there is an inescapable problem because they are already near the SNR limit. The only way to get adequate receive power on the antenna is to either increase the satellite transmit power (much larger solar arrays on the satellite required) or shrink the spot size (much larger antenna on the satellite).. You might think they could just reduce the wavelength but that won't work because there is a big region of serious atmospheric absorption just above the operating frequency. Any of those approaches (if they were feasible) would also obsolete all of the existing satellites.

Sorry for the O/T but this Starlink-to-Tesla fever really needs to end.
A simple solution would be to build the car in the shape of a parabola. No extra antenna needed 🧐
 
Not so, Moore's Law says nothing regarding the physics involved in antenna size vs beam width vs frequency.

And... Ya canna change the laws of physics.

Edit: further discussion/ replies at: Investor Engineering Discussions
YOU started it.
Actually you can. The "Laws" of Physics are a human constructs and change at the whim of humans. Humans create and change them when they think they are sure something else is occurring.
No Scientific statement is reality. Except to the point that it is the "real" perception of what is happening.
Science is a replacement for religion. Before The written word. Religions continuously changed to explain what happened or what needed to happens. And that allowed religions to be wrong or control people in one generation, but change to suit the demands of the society when conditions changed.
Before the masses were allowed access to the "printed word" of religions' laws and explanations The Leaders of the religions could modify the old texts to suit their/society's needs. But that damn printing press came along and Martin Luther, and then religious "laws" were set in stone...to me that is the beginning of the end for most of the controlling entities.
Religons explained the "why". Why something happened, and why you need to do what you should do to be good.
The Scientific Method overtook religion as to why something happened, and how man could use that construct/explanation/law to accomplish his goal.
Laws are considered as being sure of what is happening, but continuously laws are being "changed" as more information is gathered. Each new law is just the current explanation, they will change as more data is gathered and better "laws" are created.
 
1.Moore's law says size of starlink antenna will shrink over time. Also we have Cybertrucks and Semi's with larger surface area.
2.It ain't free. As a Tesla investor, part of the company belongs to me ;) (confirmed with Warren Buffet on this :) ) The $2B whether it sits as Free cash in account or whether it is used to purchase Starlink shares is the same. If Tesla buys Starlink he will have accomplished "will try to do something for TSLA longs to get first dibs on the IPO", bonus is he will also punish the shorts.

It's great when you can have your cake and eat it too
... 2 birds with one stone
... 4D chess

~ cheers (dreams can become reality )
Each satellite can only support do many ground connections. Beyond a certain density signal collisions might be a issue. So I don't think StarLink can scale to very high volumes of ground connections in a high density urban area.

5G and optical fibre are complementary.

I would like to know if the following sequence would work:-
1. SpaceX, Boring co and Neuralink merge to form a private company X.
2. X lanches a Starlink subdidary.
3. Intention accounced to IPO X at around 1/100 of Tesla share price.
4. Tesla pays $1 per share dividend to shareholders - allows share purchases.
5. X purchases shares from Tesla shareholders via an optional swap offer.
6. X remains a regular Tesla shareholder, no takeover.
7. X IPOs.

The net cost to Tesla is the $1 dividend, which shorts also pay.
Tesla shares owned by X are locked up.

Tesla shareholders can accumulate shares in X via::-
1. Swap. (Number of shares determined by shareholder)
2. IPO purchase using funds from dividend
3. IPO purchase with own funds.

IPO is large enough to allow most to get the shares they want.
 
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YOU started it.
Actually you can. The "Laws" of Physics are a human constructs and change at the whim of humans. Humans create and change them when they think they are sure something else is occurring.
No Scientific statement is reality. Except to the point that it is the "real" perception of what is happening.
Science is a replacement for religion. Before The written word. Religions continuously changed to explain what happened or what needed to happens. And that allowed religions to be wrong or control people in one generation, but change to suit the demands of the society when conditions changed.
Before the masses were allowed access to the "printed word" of religions' laws and explanations The Leaders of the religions could modify the old texts to suit their/society's needs. But that damn printing press came along and Martin Luther, and then religious "laws" were set in stone...to me that is the beginning of the end for most of the controlling entities.
Religions explained the "why". Why something happened, and why you need to do what you should do to be good.
The Scientific Method overtook religion as to why something happened, and how man could use that construct/explanation/law to accomplish his goal.
Laws are considered as being sure of what is happening, but continuously laws are being "changed" as more information is gathered. Each new law is just the current explanation, they will change as more data is gathered and better "laws" are created.
lol...you can tell who don't get that science is just the evolution of humanity's psyche from barbaric religions to just another crutch of having to believe in something so their brains don't melt out their ears. But at least "science" can be used as a tool to create real technology.
X
Come on. Science just continues to disprove its own laws.
(I'm gonna get deleted aren't.....)
 
lol...you can tell who doesn't understand science.
or has a limited ability to grasp just what it is to live in a simulation. Every advancement in any field of science leads to more questions. Science makes many people feel smug, as if they understand what is happening. That is not true. Science tells a story backed by an interpretation of the perception. If the story holds up then it is considered valid...until a new method or technology makes the old law no longer true.
Science is limited by the capacity of civilization and the individuals' minds.