Tesla Investor Day Discussion

[Mengy]

I was long on TSLA but I am shorting it and place some puts. I have already placed sell orders after 30mins. and thank goodness I did. I’ll be watching trade volume and see how much is sold off before I get back in. Expect heavy red tomorrow

As a short term swing trade that might work out for you, but long term shorting TSLA is a terrible decision. While the presentation may have been a snooze fest and lacking in plainly spelled out details, what Tesla has planned for the next decade is nothing short of becoming the largest company in the world. What do you think TSLA will do as Tesla grows to become the largest company in the world?

I'll just hold long like I've been doing for the past five years. It's worked out splendidly for me so far, and after this (admittedly boring) presentation I'm more convinced than ever that my stock will be worth much, MUCH more by 2030.

 

[GoVols!]

As a short term swing trade that might work out for you, but long term shorting TSLA is a terrible decision. While the presentation may have been a snooze fest and lacking in plainly spelled out details, what Tesla has planned for the next decade is nothing short of becoming the largest company in the world. What do you think TSLA will do as Tesla grows to become the largest company in the world?

I'll just hold long like I've been doing for the past five years. It's worked out splendidly for me so far, and after this (admittedly boring) presentation I'm more convinced than ever that my stock will be worth much, MUCH more by 2030.

I agree and depending at what price you bought in might make staying long a good play. However, I don’t know any investment broker in my network holding TSLA as a long. Most of us use a program algorithm that follows minute by minute volume, this is why we place puts/calls for a particular strike price. For the average retail investor, they lose a lot of money by just buying shares of a company and letting it ride. You can have a 10-60+% return in one year and
end up back to square one the following year. It’s much better to work your stock daily. Now, if you’re buying $100k+ worth of TSLA, I would recommend staying long if you can afford it. Anything less, is a waste of time of return value. You’re much better off getting a Roth, back door Roth and maxing out your 401k. I never recommend buying any stock for fun, nostalgia or on emotion. No company should earn your money, unless they are making you money.

 

[Mengy]

For the average retail investor, they lose a lot of money by just buying shares of a company and letting it ride. You can have a 10-60+% return in one year and
end up back to square one the following year. It’s much better to work your stock daily.

I disagree strongly with this. Holding good companies long is very profitable, I've done it my whole life and it's worked out wonderfully for me. And I'm not a stock expert or anything, far from it.

Sure day/swing trading can be fun and exhilarating, but it's strategic gambling. Holding strong companies long is much easier and removes the human error from the equation.

"Time in the market" beats "timing the market", IMHO.

 

[JupiterMan]

I disagree strongly with this. Holding good companies long is very profitable, I've done it my whole life and it's worked out wonderfully for me. And I'm not a stock expert or anything, far from it.

Sure day/swing trading can be fun and exhilarating, but it's strategic gambling. Holding strong companies long is much easier and removes the human error from the equation.

"Time in the market" beats "timing the market", IMHO.

Totally agree. much easier to lose your money day trading, IMHO thats a much higher risk strategy.

 

[Xepa777]

People who think that there’s going to be major details of a cheaper Tesla are in for a rude awakening. This is not the Model 3 unveil event. It’s an investor event. And too many details of a cheaper Tesla will Osbourne model 3 sales. I’m seeing too many of these $25k Tesla comments and videos being posted. Tesla probably regrets the Cybertruck pricing that will probably get massively revised now that we’re nearing production.

Nailed it.

 

[Xepa777]

@ZeApelido source is full of *sugar* and he should never listen to him ever again.

 

[GoVols!]

I disagree strongly with this. Holding good companies long is very profitable, I've done it my whole life and it's worked out wonderfully for me. And I'm not a stock expert or anything, far from it.

Sure day/swing trading can be fun and exhilarating, but it's strategic gambling. Holding strong companies long is much easier and removes the human error from the equation.

"Time in the market" beats "timing the market", IMHO.

True but this is why you leave it to the professionals. You may not know this, but if you have a 401k or investment broker, we day trade every day, all day. This is why we spend a lot of time in school getting a masters degree and then intern at a firm or other brokerage before we actually touch someone’s money. The fact you don’t agree with what I said is why you’re not in control of other peoples retirements. No offense, but it’s like me giving a doctor medical advice when I’m not a doctor. Going long on a stock isn’t bad but it just take longer to make real gains. It’s only risking trading if you don’t know what you’re doing.

 

[DarkandStormy]

So what was the uber-big reveal from Elon today?

Tesla might make heat pumps some day.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Things I’m looking forward to/ expecting

• MP3 unveil
• Gigafactory locations and timeline
• Robotaxi/ Gen 3 platform details and timeline
• Cybertruck production updates and maybe an announcement of when the launch party is.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620657370811752448

Update:

• H/W 4.0 incl radar, chip and cameras
• Single casting for entire China built M3 (Highlander) underbody
• Highlander reveal
• RT reveal
• Buybacks or Tesla owned RT fleet
• Cybertruck pricing, launch and taking orders (plus tour of line)
• Master Plan 3

Just throwing this out there:

Imagine if they announce not one, but THREE Gigafactory locations?​

Why is this a possibility?

1. We've had strong indications that the new Gigafactory location would be in Quebec, Canada.
2. No wait, then we heard the new Gigafactory location would be in Indonesia.
3. No wait, then we heard the new Gigafactory location would be in Mexico
4. The first two offer gateways to key markets AND access to key battery minerals (Mexico I understand the least - besides lower labour costs, what's the advantage of Nuevo Leon or Hidalgo compared to continuing to grow Gigafactory Texas?)
5. We know that Master Plan Part Trois is all about massive scale. Is one Gigafactory 'massive scale'? No. THREE is massive scale.
6. IMO, we've had a dearth of new commitments in the last year or so (Semi was announced 2017, CyberTruck in 2019). To keep with Tesla's incomparable ambition, we need dramatic new goals for the troops, AND for TSLA.
7. Battery Day was 2 1/2 years ago - c'mon! You've got to ramp faster!
8. Um, what else you gonna do useful with +$20 B in cash???
9. There's a recession coming, 'member? A recession is a great time for capital investing that will ripen at the exit of the recession.
10. Last but not least, it's kickass cool. And Elon likes making statements / stretch goals, like when he said the Roadster would be a "hardcore smackdown to gas-powered cars"

Con arguments?

• Investor Day is about incentivizing investors. It's more likely that de-mystifying 'Model 2', Robotaxi, or FSD rollout (i.e. production / go-live plans) would excite investors more. New factories are about growing COGS in the near term, not increasing revenue.

The event will be huge whatever. Tesla is sitting on so much new product announcements that just telling us when the launches will be would be big news.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505791520024186882

Man, that was a whole lot of hype for not much of anything.

Checklist look-in:
-Master Plan Part 3 -> I mean, this just sounds like a whitepaper on how to convert Earth to sustainable energy? Whitepapers like these have existed for years. There was nothing proprietary or unique in Musk's summary. There wasn't even, as far as I'm aware, a commitment to Tesla achieving goals in assistance of meeting the conversion to sustainable energy. Plans 1 & 2 at least had 4 clear and concise goals of what Tesla would be attempting to accomplish.
-Gigafactory Locations -> one confirmation (via tweet I think?) in Mexico, which we already knew about weeks ago.
-HW 4.0 update? No.
-Highlander update/reveal? No.
-Robotaxi reveal? No.
-Buybacks or details on a Tesla-owned robotaxi fleet? No.
-CT pricing & launch? No.

I suppose you can say they provided some high level goals of the next gen platform, but not much else was revealed.

 

[GoVols!]

I agree and depending at what price you bought in might make staying long a good play. However, I don’t know any investment broker in my network holding TSLA as a long. Most of us use a program algorithm that follows minute by minute volume, this is why we place puts/calls for a particular strike price. For the average retail investor, they lose a lot of money by just buying shares of a company and letting it ride. You can have a 10-60+% return in one year and
end up back to square one the following year. It’s much better to work your stock daily. Now, if you’re buying $100k+ worth of TSLA, I would recommend staying long if you can afford it. Anything less, is a waste of time of return value. You’re much better off getting a Roth, back door Roth and maxing out your 401k. I never recommend buying any stock for fun, nostalgia or on emotion. No company should earn your money, unless they are making you money.

Lol! If you’re stock holders, you just lost 6.5% today, while I sold TSLA put at net 1.3% profit overnight. Just watching the volume before buying again. This is how you win in the market. Just leaving your money stagnant is not how you invest money and people wonder why I and others charge 1-2% commission fees as we keep your money constantly working. This not the same as day trading. Granted, I know a young kid near me in his late 20’s pulling in a million a year actually day trading from his one bedroom apartment. But, he’s a very bright savvy young man. Very few that can do it successfully year after year.

 

[Ogre]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1505791520024186882

Man, that was a whole lot of hype for not much of anything.

Checklist look-in:
-Master Plan Part 3 -> I mean, this just sounds like a whitepaper on how to convert Earth to sustainable energy? Whitepapers like these have existed for years. There was nothing proprietary or unique in Musk's summary. There wasn't even, as far as I'm aware, a commitment to Tesla achieving goals in assistance of meeting the conversion to sustainable energy. Plans 1 & 2 at least had 4 clear and concise goals of what Tesla would be attempting to accomplish.
-Gigafactory Locations -> one confirmation (via tweet I think?) in Mexico, which we already knew about weeks ago.
-HW 4.0 update? No.
-Highlander update/reveal? No.
-Robotaxi reveal? No.
-Buybacks or details on a Tesla-owned robotaxi fleet? No.
-CT pricing & launch? No.

I suppose you can say they provided some high level goals of the next gen platform, but not much else was revealed.

Here is a reference for what Tesla said the event was about:

MP3 was laid out fairly well and was arguably exactly what Musk said it was going to be about. Everything else which they mentioned on the invite was discussed.

None of your “No” columns were mentioned in the invite. We (myself included) made a lot of assumptions, but any genuine disappointment is self-goal.

 

[Ogre]

Lol! If you’re stock holders, you just lost 6.5% today, while I sold TSLA put at net 1.3% profit overnight. Just watching the volume before buying again. This is how you win in the market. Just leaving your money stagnant is not how you invest money and people wonder why I and others charge 1-2% commission fees as we keep your money constantly working. This not the same as day trading. Granted, I know a young kid near me in his late 20’s pulling in a million a year actually day trading from his one bedroom apartment. But, he’s a very bright savvy young man. Very few that can do it successfully year after year.

I didn’t lose anything. I still own the same amount of Tesla has I did yesterday.

You don’t seem to understand how investing works.

 

[GoVols!]

I didn’t lose anything. I still own the same amount of Tesla has I did yesterday.

You don’t seem to understand how investing works.

No, you’re right. You technically did not lose anything, but you lost value today instead of increasing value. I should give my MBA back to Vanderbilt and start taking your advice on how to invest. Please, enlighten me on the best way to trade stock. I much prefer to sell and then re-purchase when I see red. Smart money isn’t supposed to sit idle hoping for a return, smart money keeps moving and looking for deals. You think the Warren Buffets of the World just sit around hoping for a return. I have (6) 15” screens up watching lovely candle stick graphs in my little dark dungeon while chit chatting on here. Maybe, I should have you teach me how to invest. Please help…me

 

[DarkandStormy]

Here is a reference for what Tesla said the event was about:
View attachment 913037

MP3 was laid out fairly well and was arguably exactly what Musk said it was going to be about. Everything else which they mentioned on the invite was discussed.

None of your “No” columns were mentioned in the invite. We (myself included) made a lot of assumptions, but any genuine disappointment is self-goal.

Elon tweeted they'd have sections on SpaceX and The Boring Company. Did I miss that part?

 

[kabin]

I get the feeling this investor day was heavily choreographed to minimize discussions about FSD, 4680 issues, and product roll-out depending on the 4680.

 

[Ogre]

No, you’re right. You technically did not lose anything, but you lost value today instead of increasing value. I should give my MBA back to Vanderbilt and start taking your advice on how to invest. Please, enlighten me on the best way to trade stock. I much prefer to sell and then re-purchase when I see red. Smart money isn’t supposed to sit idle hoping for a return, smart money keeps moving and looking for deals. You think the Warren Buffets of the World just sit around hoping for a return. I have (6) 15” screens up watching lovely candle stick graphs in my little dark dungeon while chit chatting on here. Maybe, I should have you teach me how to invest. Please help…me

My Roth is up 4x since the start of the year. This is a blip. Anyone who looks at nickels from day to day is doing it wrong.

 

[Ogre]

I get the feeling this investor day was heavily choreographed to minimize discussions about FSD, 4680 issues, and product roll-out depending on the 4680.

They had a 15-20 minute segment on FSD.

 

[Ogre]

Elon tweeted they'd have sections on SpaceX and The Boring Company. Did I miss that part?

They were not big sections if they were in the video. I definitely heard them talking about SpaceX, but more as “How we’ll accommodate uses like this”.

The written plan maybe has more details? This was the synopsis.

 

[GoVols!]

My Roth is up 4x since the start of the year. This is a blip. Anyone who looks at nickels from day to day is doing it wrong.

Not sure what you mean by nickels but if all you have is nickels to utilize, that’s ok. Nickels can turn into dimes, then quarters and eventually bills and so on. Just have to stay with it and constantly learn from your mistakes and wins. You made 400% on your Roth is spectacular and almost unbelievable. What was the winning stock to yield such a return?

 

[GoVols!]

I will add, watch carefully and be ready to jump in on TSLA. If you can watch the live volume trades, the volume might be getting a bump based on what I’m seeing, jump in and buy. This could be a nice discount if you don’t own the stock. Just my crazy .02