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Investors/Pundits who got Tesla wrong

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Thinking maybe we should have a list of which pundits advocated selling/shorting Tesla and what losses you would have had if you listened to them.

John Petersen- Always thought Tesla would go down- @$20 share in 2009, now $95 today- if you would have listened to his advice you would have missed making ~4.75 your investment in 3 years

Saibius research- same as Petersen

Nathan Weiss- Told his people to short Tesla weeks before the crunch, divested out of the position today, would have lost $46 per share

Jim Cramer- 2009, Tesla is going down, his advice you would have missed making 4 your investment in ~2.5 years
 
Thinking maybe we should have a list of which pundits advocated selling/shorting Tesla and what losses you would have had if you listened to them.

John Petersen- Always thought Tesla would go down- @$20 share in 2009, now $95 today- if you would have listened to his advice you would have missed making ~4.75 your investment in 3 years

Saibius research- same as Petersen

Nathan Weiss- Told his people to short Tesla weeks before the crunch, divested out of the position today, would have lost $46 per share

Jim Cramer- 2009, Tesla is going down, his advice you would have missed making 4 your investment in ~2.5 years

Yep, and I bet somehow these people still won't acknowledge that they were wrong. Cramer is all over it now - must be an easy job to recommend stocks after they already make huge gains.
 
There is a scene in "revenge of the electric car" where Owen Thomas from ValleyWag says smugly "The Model S is total vaporware. Elon is fooling everyone." He takes such satisfaction in saying it, I just want to see that smirk wiped off his face.
 
Yep, and I bet somehow these people still won't acknowledge that they were wrong.

Of course not. Clever pundits don't put a timeframe on when the stock will hit a certain value, so they can never be wrong.

To some extent, I have some sympathy for that, though. At the beginning of 1999, I thought the stock market was overvalued. I didn't want money in stocks. A year later, the people I had been telling that stocks were overvalued were laughing at me. 6 months later, they were laughing harder. In mid-2000, I was "wrong" that stocks were overvalued in Jan 1999. In 2002, I was probably right.
At the beginning of 2005, I wanted to move to a bigger house, but I thought the Silicon Valley housing market was overvalued. I didn't want to buy into what seemed like a bubble to me. I waited for 2006, and prices went up. I waited into 2007 and prices kept going up. After two years, I was clearly "wrong" that prices were overvalued at the beginning of 2005. In 2009, maybe I wasn't so wrong. I got tired of waiting and finally bought in 2010.

My point is that 2013 is too early to judge whether a 2012 valuation was "wrong" or not.
or to quote John Maynard Keynes: Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Anyway, if you believed TSLA was overvalued at $35, you probably aren't ready to admit that you were wrong just because it's trading in the 90s today.


Cramer is all over it now - must be an easy job to recommend stocks after they already make huge gains.
I think it's been shown that buying any stock Cramer lists as a sell has historically been a good choice.

- - - Updated - - -

My point is that 2013 is too early to judge whether a 2012 valuation was "wrong" or not.
Oh, I guess the original post was talking more about 2009 recommendations. 2013 might be a reasonable point to evaluate 2009.
 
That's here Santelli Loves NG (but not TSLA)) worth a few moments if you haven't seen it.

I have learned so much about "the Market" and its allied media in recent months by just following this one story that is Tesla. Started paying real attention (& bought some TSLA) just before the brodering. So much churning, regurgitated cut & paste, path of least resistance "reporting". Throw in one "side" who's self appointed role is to roll out as much FUD as possible, and on the other, a forceful, disruptive guy at the helm of a transformative industry. Oh, let's add "this is the best car ever" from Consumer Reports - all I can say is hold on to your hats folks, the ride has just begun! ML
 
derekt75, your post and its confessions brought to mind a lesson a mentor taught me some three or four decades ago about investing. As follows:

Q: What is the difference between being wrong and being wrong in your timing?

A: There is no difference.
 
Schadenfreude feels good I guess, but not sure how helpful it is as a TSLA Investor Discussion

That way we know who NOT to listen to when it comes to advice on TSLA...and to remind other people not to follow those pundits advice.

And if any if these folks bring up tesla being a bad investment.....

Say "wait, werent you the guy who said to short/ selling/dump TSLA when it was worth alot less" and do you realize how much money you cost people by them listening to your advice... Listen up people, this guy was wrong and people lost lots of money listening to him... Dont listen to his advice.

Its ammo to use against any future negative TSLA stock recommendations by these people and for people to be fully aware of these tsla negative people.
 
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The churn is getting faster!

Dow Jones/WSJ post this yesterday: Day Traders Steer Tesla Higher

Then this today: Tesla Offering Reaps More Than $1 Billion

So, the run up is just a bunch of crazed day-traders, but now it is all about the institutions buying big. Which is it? Of course, it is both, but what it is really, is a sea-change in people's realization that real EV's do sell, profitably!
 
:frown:
The churn is getting faster!

Dow Jones/WSJ post this yesterday: Day Traders Steer Tesla Higher

Then this today: Tesla Offering Reaps More Than $1 Billion

So, the run up is just a bunch of crazed day-traders, but now it is all about the institutions buying big. Which is it? Of course, it is both, but what it is really, is a sea-change in people's realization that real EV's do sell, profitably!

No, I think Audubon's post hints at it better. Share prices reflect what some people think about the profitability plus what other people think is going to happen to the share price. Right now more people believe that Tesla can be profitable in the long term (even if it's just by being bought out) so all the people who shorted in the belief that people would stop believing are buying stock, so more people believe that the stock price will rise, so more people are buying stock, so the stock's rising.

Sea change about a belief in EV profitability? I'd call it a shift in the probability.