TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Investors/Pundits who got Tesla wrong

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Dan5, May 16, 2013.

  1. Dan5

    Dan5 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2011
    Messages:
    422
    Location:
    Delran, NJ
    Thinking maybe we should have a list of which pundits advocated selling/shorting Tesla and what losses you would have had if you listened to them.

    John Petersen- Always thought Tesla would go down- @$20 share in 2009, now $95 today- if you would have listened to his advice you would have missed making ~4.75 your investment in 3 years

    Saibius research- same as Petersen

    Nathan Weiss- Told his people to short Tesla weeks before the crunch, divested out of the position today, would have lost $46 per share

    Jim Cramer- 2009, Tesla is going down, his advice you would have missed making 4 your investment in ~2.5 years
     
  2. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,405
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    Yep, and I bet somehow these people still won't acknowledge that they were wrong. Cramer is all over it now - must be an easy job to recommend stocks after they already make huge gains.
     
  3. jeff_adams

    jeff_adams Member

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2013
    Messages:
    617
    Location:
    Monterey
    There is a scene in "revenge of the electric car" where Owen Thomas from ValleyWag says smugly "The Model S is total vaporware. Elon is fooling everyone." He takes such satisfaction in saying it, I just want to see that smirk wiped off his face.
     
  4. CapitalistOppressor

    CapitalistOppressor Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2012
    Messages:
    1,621
    Everyone associated with Jalopnik.
     
  5. Vger

    Vger Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2009
    Messages:
    1,682
    Location:
    Salt Spring Island, BC, Canada
    A lot of about-faces in the media world too. Everybody loves a winner, even when they were calling it a "loser" just a few months ago.

    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
     
  6. callmesam

    callmesam Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2013
    Messages:
    854
    Location:
    Santa Monica
    Henry Blodgett of Business Insider

    John Broder of the NY Times

    Every Republican politician including:

    Mitt Romney
    Sarah Palin

    Cramer (until last week)
     
  7. ChadS

    ChadS Petroleum is for sissies

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2009
    Messages:
    2,399
    Paul Eisenstein of The Detroit Bureau? He insisted the 300-mile Model S would be unusable because you couldn't charge it at home fast enough, despite Roadster owners explaining how charging really works.
     
  8. callmesam

    callmesam Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2013
    Messages:
    854
    Location:
    Santa Monica
    Everyone at Fox News, Fox and Friends, Fox and Family, Fox Business, Fox Screaming, Fox Frothing, Fox Foaming . . .
     
  9. v12 to 12v

    v12 to 12v Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2012
    Messages:
    1,063
    Does that Kent Beuchert guy count?
     
  10. derekt75

    derekt75 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2012
    Messages:
    592
    Location:
    San Jose, CA
    Of course not. Clever pundits don't put a timeframe on when the stock will hit a certain value, so they can never be wrong.

    To some extent, I have some sympathy for that, though. At the beginning of 1999, I thought the stock market was overvalued. I didn't want money in stocks. A year later, the people I had been telling that stocks were overvalued were laughing at me. 6 months later, they were laughing harder. In mid-2000, I was "wrong" that stocks were overvalued in Jan 1999. In 2002, I was probably right.
    At the beginning of 2005, I wanted to move to a bigger house, but I thought the Silicon Valley housing market was overvalued. I didn't want to buy into what seemed like a bubble to me. I waited for 2006, and prices went up. I waited into 2007 and prices kept going up. After two years, I was clearly "wrong" that prices were overvalued at the beginning of 2005. In 2009, maybe I wasn't so wrong. I got tired of waiting and finally bought in 2010.

    My point is that 2013 is too early to judge whether a 2012 valuation was "wrong" or not.
    or to quote John Maynard Keynes: Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
    Anyway, if you believed TSLA was overvalued at $35, you probably aren't ready to admit that you were wrong just because it's trading in the 90s today.


    I think it's been shown that buying any stock Cramer lists as a sell has historically been a good choice.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Oh, I guess the original post was talking more about 2009 recommendations. 2013 might be a reasonable point to evaluate 2009.
     
  11. juan

    juan Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2013
    Messages:
    22
    Location:
    Newark, NJ
    Rick Santelli from CNBC. He didn't think TSLA was a good buy when he spoke to that college investment group a couple weeks ago.
     
  12. MikeL

    MikeL some guy

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2013
    Messages:
    1,042
    Location:
    Salt Lake City, UTAH USA
    That's here Santelli Loves NG (but not TSLA)) worth a few moments if you haven't seen it.

    I have learned so much about "the Market" and its allied media in recent months by just following this one story that is Tesla. Started paying real attention (& bought some TSLA) just before the brodering. So much churning, regurgitated cut & paste, path of least resistance "reporting". Throw in one "side" who's self appointed role is to roll out as much FUD as possible, and on the other, a forceful, disruptive guy at the helm of a transformative industry. Oh, let's add "this is the best car ever" from Consumer Reports - all I can say is hold on to your hats folks, the ride has just begun! ML
     
  13. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2013
    Messages:
    4,220
    Location:
    Denali Highway, Alaska
    derekt75, your post and its confessions brought to mind a lesson a mentor taught me some three or four decades ago about investing. As follows:

    Q: What is the difference between being wrong and being wrong in your timing?

    A: There is no difference.
     
  14. ModelS8794

    ModelS8794 Member

    Joined:
    Nov 29, 2012
    Messages:
    404
    Location:
    PA
  15. Dan5

    Dan5 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2011
    Messages:
    422
    Location:
    Delran, NJ
    #15 Dan5, May 17, 2013
    Last edited: May 17, 2013
    That way we know who NOT to listen to when it comes to advice on TSLA...and to remind other people not to follow those pundits advice.

    And if any if these folks bring up tesla being a bad investment.....

    Say "wait, werent you the guy who said to short/ selling/dump TSLA when it was worth alot less" and do you realize how much money you cost people by them listening to your advice... Listen up people, this guy was wrong and people lost lots of money listening to him... Dont listen to his advice.

    Its ammo to use against any future negative TSLA stock recommendations by these people and for people to be fully aware of these tsla negative people.
     
  16. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,405
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    Schadenfreude is my favorite kind of freude
     
  17. Vger

    Vger Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2009
    Messages:
    1,682
    Location:
    Salt Spring Island, BC, Canada
    The churn is getting faster!

    Dow Jones/WSJ post this yesterday: Day Traders Steer Tesla Higher

    Then this today: Tesla Offering Reaps More Than $1 Billion

    So, the run up is just a bunch of crazed day-traders, but now it is all about the institutions buying big. Which is it? Of course, it is both, but what it is really, is a sea-change in people's realization that real EV's do sell, profitably!
     
  18. aronth5

    aronth5 Long Time Follower

    Joined:
    May 8, 2010
    Messages:
    1,434
    Location:
    Boston Suburb
    And of course the Boston Globe!!
    Oh never mind....to this day they have never covered Tesla or the Model S.
    Not even a single sentence in their automotive section.
     
  19. Soflason

    Soflason Member

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2013
    Messages:
    544
    Location:
    FL
    #19 Soflason, May 18, 2013
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 13, 2016
    He's coming around though... now he says he can't really "game" the stock but he actually wants to buy the Model S for himself:

     
  20. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2012
    Messages:
    4,496
    Location:
    Maine
    :frown:
    No, I think Audubon's post hints at it better. Share prices reflect what some people think about the profitability plus what other people think is going to happen to the share price. Right now more people believe that Tesla can be profitable in the long term (even if it's just by being bought out) so all the people who shorted in the belief that people would stop believing are buying stock, so more people believe that the stock price will rise, so more people are buying stock, so the stock's rising.

    Sea change about a belief in EV profitability? I'd call it a shift in the probability.
     

Share This Page