Ionity - how will Jaguar, Polestar etc survive?

[LongRanger]

Don't forget there is nothing to stop Tesla increasing their charges, no business is immune to opportunity to squeeze more from an existing customer base. However there s a big difference between 26 >> 60+ pence per kWh, hopefully Tesla keep things under control.

Also we all need to understand that as electric car volumes really ramp up, particularly for company users, the BIK losses will start to hurt Treasury income, so they will find ways to invent a new tax policy to reclaim from EV drivers, they won't be able to resist.

Next 3 years should be pretty stable but 2025 onwards could look very different for how attractive electric looks on price - we all have to be realistic that you don't get owt for nowt.

 

[LukeT]

Agreed, I do think the whole charging network thing is grossly over-rated for most drivers.

For some it is undoubtedly vital, but those are the ones who are on the margins for viability for an EV as their main car.

As long as a daily home charge covers normal daily usage it really isn't a big deal and the occasional need to pay over the odds for a recharge isn't going to kill the viability of an EV for most people.

Nice to have for sure, but it isn't going to kill the adoption rate either.

In practical reality I think you are right, it makes little difference and the effect on life as an owner of an EV for those people is perfectly manageable.

However...

Nice to have for sure, but it isn't going to kill the adoption rate either.

I don't think this is entirely true. For the buyer of a first EV the long journey often seems to feel like the be all and end all. So I suspect this stuff disproportionately affects adoption rates.

 

[pdk42]

Agreed, I do think the whole charging network thing is grossly over-rated for most drivers.

For some it is undoubtedly vital, but those are the ones who are on the margins for viability for an EV as their main car.

As long as a daily home charge covers normal daily usage it really isn't a big deal and the occasional need to pay over the odds for a recharge isn't going to kill the viability of an EV for most people.

Nice to have for sure, but it isn't going to kill the adoption rate either.

I'm not sure I agree with that. For people looking to spend £50k or more on a car that will replace their "go anywhere" ICE vehicle, having the confidence that there is viable charging en-route is absolutely vital. Even if in reality it's not something that is used a lot (speaking personally, apart from a trip to/from Germany earlier this month, my only previous use of SuCs was for novelty value), it's essential that public charging appears to be readily available and not stupid prices.

 

[CrayZ1]

Truth is, many people don't use remote charging except on rare occasions.
Cheap airfare creates a situation where driving long distances is only cost effective if you are retired. Worker's time is worth money.

 

[Jason71]

Don't forget there is nothing to stop Tesla increasing their charges, no business is immune to opportunity to squeeze more from an existing customer base. However there s a big difference between 26 >> 60+ pence per kWh, hopefully Tesla keep things under control.

Also we all need to understand that as electric car volumes really ramp up, particularly for company users, the BIK losses will start to hurt Treasury income, so they will find ways to invent a new tax policy to reclaim from EV drivers, they won't be able to resist.

Next 3 years should be pretty stable but 2025 onwards could look very different for how attractive electric looks on price - we all have to be realistic that you don't get owt for nowt.

There is nothing to stop them curtailing the reduced BIK early if it is too successful. In fact due to the delay in the budget the first years 0% BiK is not even enshrined in law yet. It's not too late for it to be cancelled all together and stay at 16%.
Pretty much all we have at this point is a set of notes on a web page published by a previous government. Review of WLTP and vehicle taxes
I appreciate this would be egregious especially as most company cars are on fixed term leases but if you want a list of historic taxation u turns and shaftings it's not hard to find........

 

[Bobly]

I'm not sure I agree with that. For people looking to spend £50k or more on a car that will replace their "go anywhere" ICE vehicle, having the confidence that there is viable charging en-route is absolutely vital. Even if in reality it's not something that is used a lot (speaking personally, apart from a trip to/from Germany earlier this month, my only previous use of SuCs was for novelty value), it's essential that public charging appears to be readily available and not stupid prices.

If it’s only going to be rarely used, why would anyone be interested in investing in building an infrastructure that may not see a return.

Maybe that’s the answer to the high prices, maybe it’s just not economically viable. I know Tesla’s motivation is a bit different, more about changing the status quo than just selling cars, but I expect the “traditional” manufacturers (and charging providers) have a more “traditional” business goal in mind.

 

[vitesse]

Truth is, many people don't use remote charging except on rare occasions.
Cheap airfare creates a situation where driving long distances is only cost effective if you are retired. Worker's time is worth money.

Rare or relatively infrequent? I'd say we need to DC rapid charge 14-20 days a year on longer trips, just 4-5% of days in a year but those days are worth a lot more to us than a typical day.

 

[CrayZ1]

Some folk don't realize that the grid of petrol stations globally is not dictated by long distance travel as much as it is population centers. If you are driving where there are no gas stations, you bring jerry cans. While EVs don't need DCFC everywhere people are, ICE vehicles do need petrol stations where people live since you can't make petrol at home.

 

[NewbieT]

....it seems that the "minor" brands with expensive big battery cars like Jaguar, Polestar and such like are getting frozen out....

I don't believe this a problem that will last long.

• Ionity: Ionity may just accept new partners, brands may get access through partnerships, group companies and JVs. e.g. Daimler acquired a 3.10 per cent stake in Renault-Nissan in 2010. JLR used to be owned by Ford. etc. or .
• Other providers: Another provider may build out supercharging sites quicker than Ionity. There are only 3 Ionity sites in the UK. e.on, BP Polar and Fastnet all building too.

The real issue if you don't drive a Tesla is there just aren't enough 100kw+ chargers to make it a realistic proposition. Tesla is years ahead.

 

[Yev000]

Tesla is years ahead.

I also think as battery density rises the need for chargers will decrease.

If a Model 3 equivalent can do 600 miles in 10 years you can comfortably get from London To Edinburgh on a single charge. The new Roadster will allegedly be able to do this, the Cybertruck comes close.

I don't think it will completely remove the need for superchargers, but in the medium term, the vast majority will not need them.

 

[vitesse]

I also think as battery density rises the need for chargers will decrease.

If a Model 3 equivalent can do 600 miles in 10 years you can comfortably get from London To Edinburgh on a single charge. The new Roadster will allegedly be able to do this, the Cybertruck comes close.

I don't think it will completely remove the need for superchargers, but in the medium term, the vast majority will not need them.

But the bigger the battery the longer the charge when you do need to.

 

[jimbo_hippo]

What’s the motivation for Jaguar to invest in an EV and then push people towards their ICE lineup instead?

This is a valid point Vector and perhaps the choice of Jaguar was poor on my behalf. However, I worked exhibitions as an AV tech form many years and a pal of mine who owns a Tesla still works a lot of the international Motor Shows. He pointed out that it's striking how even the manufacturers seeming to push their EVs have these variants at the back of the stand with all the ICE variants on display for days at the front. It's like there's this great plan then something like tooling up for EV production or battery supply or something is making them half push them when it comes to the crunch. The reports of salesmen in mixed ICE/EV dealerships not pushing the EVs too hard doesn't help negate my position either (although that could be EV-Fanboy hysteria I know). There's a lot of weight in the argument that VW are seen to be pushing the EV range to backpedal out off the emissions scandal too which is a tough one to dismiss without some consideration.

Tesla only makes EVs so even if a shareholder had any input, it would be pro-EV. Shareholders in mixed manufacturers don't want expensive factories, expensive and long development and anything that might take quarterly profits down vs long term gain. It's a now game.

I've painted some highly assumed broad brush strokes here I know, but I keep being reminded that there seems to be a 'keeping up with the Joneses' approach for many and even the ones who seem to have taken it onboard have models that are either not available until 2022 or something and those that are manufacturing have sold out their annual allocation in the first month of announcing it with no more for an eternity.

 

[Yev000]

But the bigger the battery the longer the charge when you do need to.

Yes and no, larger batteries can sustain higher charge rates for a bigger portion of their capacity. So yes, if you want a specific %, but if you need say 200 miles to finish your trip it will probably get that much faster than a smaller battery car.

You are not sequentially charging cells, they are charged in parallel and probably in batches depending on the charge controller tech.

You get this now SR vs LR. The LR will get more range for the same 5 min period of supercharging (unless they are both during peak max KW rate) than the SR.

 

[CrayZ1]

The newest chargers being installed are 350 kW up to 1000 vdc.
Assuming a battery is 200 kWh, the rate at which it will charge with today's chemistry is roughly 200 kW average speed, so 30 minutes will add 100 kW, or 200 miles if you are getting 2mi/kWh (driving fast or very cold weather).
But chemistry will improve.

 

[Yev000]

or 200 miles if you are getting 2mi/kWh (driving fast or very cold weather).

That would have to be 500 Wh/mile correct?

Yeah, sub zero and doing 80 mph+. Maybe on the german autobahn during winter in something the size of a Model X?

or an I-Pace on a good day?

 

[Jason71]

I also think as battery density rises the need for chargers will decrease.

If a Model 3 equivalent can do 600 miles in 10 years you can comfortably get from London To Edinburgh on a single charge. The new Roadster will allegedly be able to do this, the Cybertruck comes close.

I don't think it will completely remove the need for superchargers, but in the medium term, the vast majority will not need them.

In 10 years I think that is possible but I also think that there will still be a significant cost / weight so some people will still opt for the 300 mile option and choose to charge on their occasional long journeys. Occasional for each person but there will be a lot more EV's out there doing those occasional journeys

Not to mention the impending phenomenon of "range poverty" (i'm claiming that one when it ends up in the public lexicon BTW) where the less well off are driving older E'V's with lower range due to what was available in the past + degradation since. No 5p overnight Octopus go for them since they will be the ones without drives who have to use type 2 chargers for their daily needs and still need DC charging for long journeys as well.

 

[Jason71]

That would have to be 500 Wh/mile correct?

Yeah, sub zero and doing 80 mph+. Maybe on the german autobahn during winter in something the size of a Model X?

or an I-Pace on a good day?

I'm kinda hoping efficiency will improve over time the way MPG has not get worse!
I wonder how long before governments start to impose EV efficiency targets like the current CO2 ones for ICE. Average fleet wide W/mi of 300 that sort of thing and taxation for individual vehicles based on it.
I can see it now. Bosch and VW are probably working on some "special" software for that already.............

 

[Yev000]

"range poverty"

SR vs LR master race...?

Nah, having too much range is just over compensating for something....

 

[Jason71]

SR vs LR master race...?

Nah, having too much range is just over compensating for something....

In my case that thing is Wales and its one and only Supercharger.

 

[vitesse]

On my forthcoming trip to the Sud Vendée because I need to Supercharge 3-4 times my route will be 50 miles further than if I went the most direct route.

I don't mind, personally - but I'm an easy-going, glass half-full, kinda guy LOL