Is it smart to buy FSD for $5k while it’s still available for MX owners?

[MXWing]

As a very first AP2 costumer where you could upgrade to EAP from the regular AP, I'd say waiting is by far the best option. Only with v9 do we have actual parity to AP1. That took nearly two years when the promise was a couple of months. There still isn't a single EAP feature that works and is released to everyone. I paid an extra $2000 two years ago for nothing so far. If I'd gotten FSD, it would have been an extra $6000 for nothing. Before FSD is close to offering something substantial, it will be another couple of years at best. As good as AP is, it's not even close to being able to drive on a standard highway without oversight; the leap from this to regular roads is in order of magnitude. The new chip that will make this possible will be released in six months according to Elon. If past timelines are any indicator, this means in one year at best, and even later for those seeking upgrades to AP2x. By then my car will be at least four years old. Maybe I will have wrecked it.

Two years ago I decided to buy $4,000 of Apple stock at $110 instead of FSD. Today that stock is worth about $8,000. When FSD actually works, I will sell that stock and buy it. By then, I'm pretty sure I will be able to buy FSD and have lots of left over money. It doesn't take much sense to tie thousands of dollars for a feature that doesn't exist yet, especially when it's connected to a car that can be wrecked any day, and depreciates every minute.

Your anecdote doesn’t reflect the present.

I was in same situation. AP1 car upgraded to EAP. I passed on FSD and I put the 3000 elsewhere.

In retrospect, it was a good move.

However, It’s not 2016 anymore but late into 2018.

Will AAPL double again before AP3 chip is out?

 

[rush6410]

Your anecdote doesn’t reflect the present.

I was in same situation. AP1 car upgraded to EAP. I passed on FSD and I put the 3000 elsewhere.

In retrospect, it was a good move.

However, It’s not 2016 anymore but late into 2018.

Will AAPL double again before AP3 chip is out?

Let's play out a scenario. AP3 chip comes out. Tesla upgrades the folks who paid for FSD for free and receive FSD functionality. Tesla does not offer the upgrade to ppl who did not pay for FSD pre AP3 since the cost to upgrade the hardware is more than the upcharge.

 

[polymathic]

Your anecdote doesn’t reflect the present.

I was in same situation. AP1 car upgraded to EAP. I passed on FSD and I put the 3000 elsewhere.

In retrospect, it was a good move.

However, It’s not 2016 anymore but late into 2018.

Will AAPL double again before AP3 chip is out?

What has not changed is Tesla's overoptimistic timelines. Six months for the chip could be a year and a half. Then it could be months before AP2 cars can even get the upgrade. This does not even include the delays in the software development, and any issue with getting FSD approved by the gov't. It could easily be another three years. Who would have thought it was going to take two years to get AP2 cars to AP1 parity?

 

[MXWing]

What has not changed is Tesla's overoptimistic timelines. Six months for the chip could be a year and a half. Then it could be months before AP2 cars can even get the upgrade. This does not even include the delays in the software development, and any issue with getting FSD approved by the gov't. It could easily be another three years. Who would have thought it was going to take two years to get AP2 cars to AP1 parity?

To keep things in perspective - how much is FSD truly worth? 50,000? Or even 500,000?

Autopilot and full self driving sounds really sexy compared to say “Pro Pilot”.

As a consumer that adores Tesla I knew level 5 wasn’t happening soon. FSD isn’t priced for full autonomy.

It’s prices for new features that will grow incrementally.

The hardware upgrade is a bonus.

I know all about how slow AP parity was. I did not have TACC day one.

Tesla going from 1 camera to 8 over a single major software release is amazing.

It would make sense that Tesla will continue to build off this progress and throw raw compute at the system to shortcut squeezing performance from old hardware.

Next two years will be amazing compared to the last two. While the bar two years ago was low, progress is progress.

 

[ScubaMal]

If you ordered before June 25th 2018. Tesla will still honor the 4000.00 upgrade for FSD. Just received the email below.

Hello Mal,

Tesla will honor the $4,000 pricing for anyone that ordered a car on or before Monday, 6/25/18. Please send us proof of purchase and we will refund $1000. I hope this helps!
Thank you for being Tesla Owner and have a wonderful day!

Best Regards,
24/7 Customer Support: 877-798-3752

--------------- Original Message ---------------
From: [[email protected]]
Sent: 10/17/2018 9:12 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Tesla Account Escalate email

Will I still be able to purchase the FSD option at the 4000.00 price point since that was the option when I purchased my Model X? Right now on my account it shows the new price of 5000.00, isn't that for new buyers? Thank you.

 

[rjdoc74]

If you ordered before June 25th 2018. Tesla will still honor the 4000.00 upgrade for FSD. Just received the email below.

Hello Mal,

Tesla will honor the $4,000 pricing for anyone that ordered a car on or before Monday, 6/25/18. Please send us proof of purchase and we will refund $1000. I hope this helps!
Thank you for being Tesla Owner and have a wonderful day!

Best Regards,
24/7 Customer Support: 877-798-3752

--------------- Original Message ---------------
From: [[email protected]]
Sent: 10/17/2018 9:12 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Tesla Account Escalate email

Will I still be able to purchase the FSD option at the 4000.00 price point since that was the option when I purchased my Model X? Right now on my account it shows the new price of 5000.00, isn't that for new buyers? Thank you.

Hence see post #78 in this thread

 

[dogldogl]

Executive support through mytesla account.

FWIW: Based on your experience, I attempted the same thing (query via executive support through my tesla acct) & received a response, saying I should instead direct the query to "the sales team you are working with".

 

[rjdoc74]

FWIW: Based on your experience, I attempted the same thing (query via executive support through my tesla acct) & received a response, saying I should instead direct the query to "the sales team you are working with".

I guess they got sick and tired of getting questions about FSD pricing lol

 

[MXWing]

I guess they got sick and tired of getting questions about FSD pricing lol

 

[Yinn]

Your anecdote doesn’t reflect the present.

I was in same situation. AP1 car upgraded to EAP. I passed on FSD and I put the 3000 elsewhere.

In retrospect, it was a good move.

However, It’s not 2016 anymore but late into 2018.

Will AAPL double again before AP3 chip is out?

This is exactly my situation. Passed on FSD on both my AP2 cars, saving nearly $6,000 in two years. That $6,000 in Tesla call options more than pays for the additional $1,000 fee for future upgrade. In retrospect; there hasn't been any FSD releases. But as you said; that was 2016.

As it stands now, I found myself wondering just a couple days ago if I should have bought FSD and how much longer can I walk this line before it becomes unavailable. It's much like investing in Tesla itself. Traditional fundamentals tell you - no it's not worth it. You're not buying anything substantial today. But yet I threw money into the future rather than missing out.

Worst Case Scenario: I buy FSD, something bad happens. Car is totalled; I'm out the $4,000 I just shelled out.

Mid Case Scenario 1: I buy FSD. Reg approval takes an additional 3-5 years. Tesla has moved from AP2 -> AP3.5. It's too far of a technology jump and Tesla can NOT retrofit. They offer a refund, settlement, and/or a discount on a new car.

Mid Case Scenario 2: I buy FSD. Reg approval takes an additional 3-5 years. Tesla has moved from AP2 -> AP3.5. Keeps it's promise and updates my car. In this case, I think $4,000 is worth essentially a new car.

Best Case Scenario: I buy FSD, Tesla eliminates the option 24 hours later. Gets reg approval. Releases the software. Updates my car to new hardware.

Some of it is based on whether I think Tesla will keep it's promise. Not on timing; but on the end product. I think for me, Mid Case Scenario 2 is most likely; which means I'll pull the trigger on FSD before year end.

 

[john85775]

Smart analysis. In your mid case scenarios, the likelihood is that Tesla will provide L3+ capabilities to these cars.

 

[Yinn]

Smart analysis. In your mid case scenarios, the likelihood is that Tesla will provide L3+ capabilities to these cars.

That's my expectation as well, and I can say it cost me more than $4,000 to go from my AP1 -> AP2. So for me to pass on FSD wouldn't make much sense. Now...who's going to help me convince my wife?

 

[cwied]

I think you're missing the scenarios where Tesla offers the upgrade to all customers who were promised the ability to buy FSD later at the price they were promised. I personally feel these are the most likely scenarios. I read their stopping selling FSD as an effort to prevent the growth of potential future liability, not a signal that they're going to renege on their original offer. If they're really canceling that offer, I think they should be much clearer about it.

 

[MXWing]

I think you're missing the scenarios where Tesla offers the upgrade to all customers who were promised the ability to buy FSD later at the price they were promised. I personally feel these are the most likely scenarios. I read their stopping selling FSD as an effort to prevent the growth of potential future liability, not a signal that they're going to renege on their original offer. If they're really canceling that offer, I think they should be much clearer about it.

Why offer it off menu at all then? If you knew it was a fraud, you can’t perpetuate it. Asking for under the table purchase is just a lure for a bigger beat down.

My theory is Tesla wants to get where they can cheapen production by not having px2 or its replacement on cars without FSD. Just enough for EAP and safety.

Charge 5000 or more for FSD as a build option during production.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

I think you're missing the scenarios where Tesla offers the upgrade to all customers who were promised the ability to buy FSD later at the price they were promised. I personally feel these are the most likely scenarios. I read their stopping selling FSD as an effort to prevent the growth of potential future liability, not a signal that they're going to renege on their original offer. If they're really canceling that offer, I think they should be much clearer about it.

Yep that’s the key - induced into a contract. It was removed from offer to limit liability

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Why offer it off menu at all then? If you knew it was a fraud, you can’t perpetuate it. Asking for under the table purchase is just a lure for a bigger beat down.

My theory is Tesla wants to get where they can cheapen production by not having px2 or its replacement on cars without FSD. Just enough for EAP and safety.

Charge 5000 or more for FSD as a build option during production.

Fraud is a strong word - I see it as backpedaling due to realisation of stupidity. Refer ‘funding secured’ debacle

 

[cwied]

Why offer it off menu at all then? If you knew it was a fraud, you can’t perpetuate it. Asking for under the table purchase is just a lure for a bigger beat down.

I don't think there's any fraud involved. I think the issue is that they want the flexibility to price the FSD upgrade however they want in the future. Now that they aren't as cash-starved, they may not think the trade-off of cash up front in exchange for a locked-in price is to their advantage any more. It's also clear no one knows what "FSD" means in this context.

I would think the main reason to offer it off-menu is for those who saw it being offered earlier and think they really have to have it. The number of these people is probably small enough that the risk is worth the customer satisfaction benefit.

 

[DoctorVenkman]

Fraud requires intent to deceive - I very much doubt that Tesla intended to take people's money without delivering on FSD. If Tesla were just being overly optimistic, it's not fraud. Now, if there was written evidence (say an email from a senior exec) that Tesla knew FSD was undeliverable, yet continued to take people's money, then there might be a case for fraud.

All that being said, IMO they would be wise to issue a refund to anyone who wants one. It's smart business and gets them a lot of good will.

 

[bayx]

This is exactly my situation. Passed on FSD on both my AP2 cars, saving nearly $6,000 in two years. That $6,000 in Tesla call options more than pays for the additional $1,000 fee for future upgrade. In retrospect; there hasn't been any FSD releases. But as you said; that was 2016.

As it stands now, I found myself wondering just a couple days ago if I should have bought FSD and how much longer can I walk this line before it becomes unavailable. It's much like investing in Tesla itself. Traditional fundamentals tell you - no it's not worth it. You're not buying anything substantial today. But yet I threw money into the future rather than missing out.

Worst Case Scenario: I buy FSD, something bad happens. Car is totalled; I'm out the $4,000 I just shelled out.

Mid Case Scenario 1: I buy FSD. Reg approval takes an additional 3-5 years. Tesla has moved from AP2 -> AP3.5. It's too far of a technology jump and Tesla can NOT retrofit. They offer a refund, settlement, and/or a discount on a new car.

Mid Case Scenario 2: I buy FSD. Reg approval takes an additional 3-5 years. Tesla has moved from AP2 -> AP3.5. Keeps it's promise and updates my car. In this case, I think $4,000 is worth essentially a new car.

Best Case Scenario: I buy FSD, Tesla eliminates the option 24 hours later. Gets reg approval. Releases the software. Updates my car to new hardware.

Some of it is based on whether I think Tesla will keep it's promise. Not on timing; but on the end product. I think for me, Mid Case Scenario 2 is most likely; which means I'll pull the trigger on FSD before year end.

FSD is $5000, they are not honoring the $4000 even though Elon's tweet suggested that Tesla would honor it for those who ordered their car when FSD was $4000. And yes, different people have been getting different replies from customer support on this topic!

 

[bayx]

Elon Musk‏ @elonmusk
Get this question a lot, so need to clarify that there’s no such thing as a Tesla “refresh”. Other car companies do this every ~3 years, but Tesla constantly upgrades vehicle hardware every week.