Honestly I still think they are trying to balance out delivering meaningful quantities and at the same time ramp up Model 3 production capability. Their ideal scenario will be to ship majority of Q2 orders to international and then hit 200K early of Q3. And by then if their model 3 production volume is good, they can pump out significant numbers for Q3 and Q4 so that maximum amount of buyers can get the full $7500 credit. Not sure if they will go out of their way to make sure this scenario will happen but for sure they might be thinking something like this as long as if they can keep up revenue by shipping to international.
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Is Model X production down?
- Thread starter Brandon332
- Start date
Canceled order and re-ordered on 2/2 under new referral programreferred myself for 1st referral under new program to get $500 credit. This time same X75D and quoted late May delivery. Since then online configurator say June for S and X.
So, why if I ordered 3 days later was the estimated delivery pushed back 2 months? Well, looks like the 1/31 order made the cutoff for FYQ1 delivery and the 2/2 order did not...
But guess what!? Being that I am a current S owner and 3 early res holder I received a VIN just a few days after the order was confirmed. Within one week I was notified the vehicle was in production and vehicle was built in less that 2 week from production start.
Vehicle is now in port ready for shipment to Hawaii That is less than one month!!
So what the heck is going on you might ask!?!!
Most likely Tesla is pushing back deliveries to inflate demand perception while allowing themselves wiggle room to push back non Tesla owner vehicle builds while prioritizing current owner vehicle production.
What do you think?
First, congratulation on the new Model X!
Second, it looks like Tesla essentially put in a 2-3 month gap in Model X deliveries.
(Your 2/2 order has already been filled... but an order placed now says June delivery = gap of ~2 to 3 months)
Why the gap?
a) As you say, prioritization for current owners and going for the "scarcity" effect
Would be interesting to learn how long Model X orders are truly taking at this point (are they truly being pushed to June?)
b) Switchover for European production?
- When I brought up the June delivery with an OA last weekend, he said the factory was likely switched over to the right-side driving production for deliveries to Europe. So, for the next few months, all production was going there - which would explain the gap.
- Prioritizing European deliveries could also be related to the gaming the 200K number (next item)
c) Something related to the 200K production number and the tax credit
Gaming the number so they don't go over until early July. However, I would think the would want to prioritize the higher-margin Model X, not the Model 3??
d) They are preparing for a Model X refresh
- If Tesla is about to do the refresh, they would want to clear existing inventory (which will soon be less attractive). The "scarcity effect" helps, because they can direct people who want it sooner to existing inventory.
- The 2-3 month gap could also be necessary due to retooling / supply chain management
- If they have a refresh imminent, they may want to have more customers get the refreshed version, so storing up their orders and delivering after the refresh (June) could be a way to do that.
This video sums up some of these thoughts:
We will see!
That kid in the video is annoying. All his info comes from bits and pieces that other people have already talked about. Some of the info aren’t even correct. Gigafaftory cant produce enough batteries for the 3, how are they going to do the s and x.