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Is Model X production down?
- Thread starter Brandon332
- Start date
In the past 2 weeks or so the 75D has been having a late-May delivery, with 100D/P100D having late-March delivery. With the 100D now shifting to May/June like the 75D seems pretty normal by now. They might start releasing inventory cars to meet their sales goal for the quarter.
And of course one can also speculate a refresh is right around the corner. I wouldn't be surprised if I missed it in my March delivery, just like how I missed AP2 by 2 weeks.
And of course one can also speculate a refresh is right around the corner. I wouldn't be surprised if I missed it in my March delivery, just like how I missed AP2 by 2 weeks.
Tiger
Active Member
Yeah, see related discussion:
It's either refresh, or Tesla finally adopted the Toyota way, stop and fix. But hey, if you are fixing the line, might as well do the refresh in the same bang.
It's either refresh, or Tesla finally adopted the Toyota way, stop and fix. But hey, if you are fixing the line, might as well do the refresh in the same bang.
Speaking honestly, no I did not, knowing what I do know now. However, I did lose one night of sleep on the announcement, for real.Speaking honestly, did you really miss anything with AP2?
Seems like the pattern has been U.S., and particularly CA, cars are delivered at the end of the quarter due to shorter transportation times. Once it's too late to custom order for end of March delivery the delivery date would get bumped to June. Starting in April they should go back to building cars for international delivery and U.S. builds and deliveries will taper down for a while.
Cluster a bunch toward end of June. Deliver "very carefully" the last week of June and consider holding a few over until July once near 199,800. Can't make it "near 199,990" - it then would be obvious they were strategically doing it.
I'm OK with obvious. But I do recommend extra buffer to prevent going over due to a counting error.
This is fair. I'm sincerely hoping it's not because of some manufacturing/supplier issue. My suspicion lingers just because they initially pushed Model X back to June while leaving Model S delivery times as Late March for like another week. This makes little sense to me while at the same time making some sense. I could see them purposely leaving Model S delivery times in late March for an extra week because they had also just announced the further Model 3 delay, and such a near-term delivery time of late March could be used to entice Model 3 reservation holders to convert to Model S. But that still doesn't make too much sense to me, because why would you push it all the way to June? Why wouldn't you push Model S out a little bit, I'm sure many Model 3 reservation holders are still going back and forth on switching to Model S. Something just seems a bit peculiar. Their actions with the pushback and June timeframe do make sense on paper, but something still just doesn't feel right.
Here's my commentary on this delay:
After years of lurking, we're finally about ready to order a Model X
(Which should then also help unlock my Day 0 Model 3 reservation)
However, this Model X delay until June is spooking me.
- Are they really planning a refresh?
After all this wait, I don't want there to be a nice refresh right AFTER we finally get ours.
(I get it: Teslas are constantly updated and you have to buy in at some point. However, I don't want the buyer's remorse when they announce the expected bigger update)
For example, in this article:
Tesla Investor Calendar: The Next 90 Days, Including Model S And X Refresh - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
The author speculates that the refresh may come when they announce Q1 unit deliveries on April 3rd.
So, my current plan is to wait until after April 3rd or a Model X refresh announcement, whatever comes first.
After years of lurking, we're finally about ready to order a Model X
(Which should then also help unlock my Day 0 Model 3 reservation)
However, this Model X delay until June is spooking me.
- Are they really planning a refresh?
After all this wait, I don't want there to be a nice refresh right AFTER we finally get ours.
(I get it: Teslas are constantly updated and you have to buy in at some point. However, I don't want the buyer's remorse when they announce the expected bigger update)
For example, in this article:
Tesla Investor Calendar: The Next 90 Days, Including Model S And X Refresh - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
The author speculates that the refresh may come when they announce Q1 unit deliveries on April 3rd.
So, my current plan is to wait until after April 3rd or a Model X refresh announcement, whatever comes first.
Yes, good point - I've been going through history and it looks like the refresh announce date is about the same date they start manufacturing the newly-updated models. So, if I ordered today, the refresh announcement happens in April, and then June delivery, I should be covered.
However, I have two thoughts:
1 - What if one of the changes involve new options?
(e.g. new color options, or new added features (HUD, or whatever))
It doesn't seem that an already-configured and ordered model could be modified with new choices
2- Waiting until April 3rd to see if there is a refresh seems like it would simply extend my potential window with just a few downsides:
a- Waiting another month
b- Higher financing rates above the current 1.49% level (rates reportedly are updated at beginning of each quarter) Then again, there's no way to lock into a rate on March 31st for a June delivery - the rate locks are only for 30 to 60 days...
Hmmm....
IMHO THERE IS NO X/S REFRESH COMING ANYTIME SOON!!
I'll give you the rundown on my recent Model X buying experience...
1/31 order placed over the phone with OA for X75D and quoted late March delivery...
Canceled order and re-ordered on 2/2 under new referral program referred myself for 1st referral under new program to get $500 credit. This time same X75D and quoted late May delivery. Since then online configurator say June for S and X.
So, why if I ordered 3 days later was the estimated delivery pushed back 2 months? Well, looks like the 1/31 order made the cutoff for FYQ1 delivery and the 2/2 order did not...
But guess what!? Being that I am a current S owner and 3 early res holder I received a VIN just a few days after the order was confirmed. Within one week I was notified the vehicle was in production and vehicle was built in less that 2 week from production start.
Vehicle is now in port ready for shipment to Hawaii That is less than one month!!
So what the heck is going on you might ask!?!!
Most likely Tesla is pushing back deliveries to inflate demand perception while allowing themselves wiggle room to push back non Tesla owner vehicle builds while prioritizing current owner vehicle production.
What do you think?
I'll give you the rundown on my recent Model X buying experience...
1/31 order placed over the phone with OA for X75D and quoted late March delivery...
Canceled order and re-ordered on 2/2 under new referral program
referred myself for 1st referral under new program to get $500 credit. This time same X75D and quoted late May delivery. Since then online configurator say June for S and X.So, why if I ordered 3 days later was the estimated delivery pushed back 2 months? Well, looks like the 1/31 order made the cutoff for FYQ1 delivery and the 2/2 order did not...
But guess what!? Being that I am a current S owner and 3 early res holder I received a VIN just a few days after the order was confirmed. Within one week I was notified the vehicle was in production and vehicle was built in less that 2 week from production start.
Vehicle is now in port ready for shipment to Hawaii That is less than one month!!
So what the heck is going on you might ask!?!!
Most likely Tesla is pushing back deliveries to inflate demand perception while allowing themselves wiggle room to push back non Tesla owner vehicle builds while prioritizing current owner vehicle production.
What do you think?
Yes, the quarter they hit 200k and the next quarter are full credit, then 2 of 50%, then two of 25%.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
If they're slowing down deliveries to push out the tax credit an extra quarter, aren't the sales and revenue for this quarter going to be abysmal? The street isn't going to like that very much, and I can't see Elon getting on the earnings call admitting to manipulating the tax code to extend the tax credit.
It's almost a lose-lose situation.
Either they slow down sales in this quarter to extend the tax credit through all of 2018, or they keep sales at the same level to keep Wall Street and their investors happy, but accelerate the beginning of the end of the tax credit just as Model 3 production ramps up.
It's almost a lose-lose situation.
Either they slow down sales in this quarter to extend the tax credit through all of 2018, or they keep sales at the same level to keep Wall Street and their investors happy, but accelerate the beginning of the end of the tax credit just as Model 3 production ramps up.
Yes to short term revenue although that could be mostly recoverable with 3 shifts on S/X with previously received parts later.
If they do reduce production, they may be able to offset some heat by hitting the 2,500/ wk build number for the last 2 weeks before going back in no-monthly-numbers submarine mode.
I wouldn't call shifting the date of #200,000 manipulating the tax code, just like paying my 2107 property taxes 2 months early last year wasn't manipulating the standard deduction.
They could be having a real slow down due to reconfiguring the material flow system.