Is Tesla closer than we think?

[rxlawdude]

You keep mentioning L2+ like it’s a thing. FYI it’s not. Technically you can argue NoA goes beyond the definition of steering/throttle assist, so if you’re happy with that, then leave the FSD conversation to those who actually care about it.

The fact is, the only FSD that Tesla has shown to the public is V8.2, and it is dangerous, and far from a consumer L3 product.

As an FSD owner, I can’t wait for L3, but looking at what Tesla has released V8.2, with interventions barely at the rate of 1 per mile, there need to be huge improvements to get anywhere close. If V9 is a 50% improvement in disengagements, that’s just peanuts.

We also don’t know what V9 will look like at all, so I think it’s perfectly fair to judge a product by what they’ve shown to the public (V8.2). If Tesla has made monumental improvements in V9, why don’t they show us? And I don’t mean the doctored and staged FSD videos like they’ve done in the past. Until we see V9 with our eyes, all we can do is speculate.

Another argument. Sorry you disagree.

I'm obviously more patient than you, and your speculation as to progress indicates that you are far from patient. Or you didn't read the GD disclaimers or do research before committing to FSD.

By the way, do you own a Telsa capable of FSD? Did you pay for FSD and understand the caveats clearly spelled out in black and white? Yes x 2 for me. You?

 

[diplomat33]

Tesla has deployed level four in some cases, there is video proof of that. You can call it stage if you want, but it clearly shows the car navigating all by itself in a specific set of circumstances, just like Waymo.....

Tesla has not deployed any L4. FSD Beta is L2. I know it might be confusing. Watching videos, FSD Beta can appear similar to Waymo in some cases. Both are driving certain routes with no disengagements. But (simply put), FSD Beta cannot do all dynamic driving tasks so it is L2. It might be able to do some routes with no disengagements but only because the routes happened to only require the dynamic driving tasks that FSD Beta can do and nothing unexpected happened. And FSD Beta needs a human as fallback in case it encounters a problem. Waymo is designed to do all dynamic driving tasks with no human as fallback which is L4.

 

[jjrandorin]

By the way, do you own a Telsa capable of FSD? Did you pay for FSD and understand the caveats clearly spelled out in black and white? Yes x 2 for me. You?

While there are DEFINITELY people who are, lets say "super passionate" / "super active" on this topic in this subforum, who neither have FSD or even a Tesla, from other posts the person you are asking the question of have posted, they have a model 3 with FSD, that they got used from tesla, that was in better condition than the new model 3 and model Y deliveries they were on.

 

[momo3605]

Another argument. Sorry you disagree.

I'm obviously more patient than you, and your speculation as to progress indicates that you are far from patient. Or you didn't read the GD disclaimers or do research before committing to FSD.

By the way, do you own a Telsa capable of FSD? Did you pay for FSD and understand the caveats clearly spelled out in black and white? Yes x 2 for me. You?

How is stating that L2+ isn’t a real thing an argument? It’s not and I suggest you look up SAE definitions if you’re not familiar

it’s also a fact that v8.2 is the best version of FSD that Tesla has to offer and show the public. Have you seen anything better?

Lastly, my last statement was that we’re all free to disagree and speculate because none of us know anything that anyone else doesn’t. I’m sure we’ve all seen the v8.2 videos. Based on the level of disengagement’s and dangerous calls in v8.2, I believe we have a ways to go before we’ll see L3, if we do at all. I do own FSD on my model 3, and I know the disclaimers. I just don’t think Tesla is close to L3

 

[Webeevdrivers]

My prediction. Level 2 FSD by 2024. Level 4 by 2028.

 

[rxlawdude]

I suggest you look up SAE definitions if you’re not familiar.

Have you read this thread?

 

[Cheburashka]

Oh a video that took hundreds of attempts to record with an average safety disengagement of 3 miles.
Similar to what they were in 2019 Autonomy day test rides and 2021 FSD Beta 8.2
Glad we see your logic in the open and Its not different from what it was in 2017.

Tesla had 4 self-driving Model X prototypes last year and drove over 500 autonomous miles on public roads

While Tesla has now thousands of vehicles equipped with its latest Autopilot hardware on the road today, only a few...

electrek.co

Exactly. So this brings the question of what they were doing between the autonomy day and today. But the reality is probably that it was mostly staged which is why we aren't at Autonomy Day level FSD still.

Tesla has deployed level four in some cases, there is video proof of that. You can call it stage if you want, but it clearly shows the car navigating all by itself in a specific set of circumstances, just like Waymo.....

L4 means you can not watch the road and sit in the back seat and the car will drive itself. L4 means there technically is no reason to ever touch the steering wheel as the car shouldn't ask you to take over.

Are you this guy?

 

[caligula666]

I'm obviously more patient than you, and your speculation as to progress indicates that you are far from patient. Or you didn't read the GD disclaimers or do research before committing to FSD.

By the way, do you own a Telsa capable of FSD? Did you pay for FSD and understand the caveats clearly spelled out in black and white? Yes x 2 for me. You?

So, essentially, the two « guidelines » are:
- Nothing Elon says matters when it comes to buying FSD, only your contract matters, we know Elon says things totally unrelated to what the reality of FSD is or is not at Tesla, so you are just plain stupid if you believe anything Elon says, AND
- Did you hear what Elon tweeted?!? This is amazing!!! FSD is around the corner, you HAVE TO believe him because he says it! Oh you haven’t see this Winter Holiday update that’s just around the corner, that’s going to b-l-o-w- your mind! If you concentrate hard enough on the location on the UI where the download button should appear, you should start levitating. If you don’t levitate, it is because you don’t concentrate hard enough. In Elon we trust!

 

[daktari]

What we cannot accept as sound reasoning is that L4, irrespective of constraints, is better or more impressive or more advanced than L2 in the wild simply because 4 is a higher number than 2. That is folly.

I disagree.
In my eyes, a SAE level 2 FSD is merely a real life video game, where the plot is to be the driver who survives the longest while the car all the time challenges you with surprising failures that might in fact kill you. Or even worse, pedestrians, cyclists any other people out there are also in risk, without consenting to participate in the video game. For an extra challenge, the user interface is made such that you will become complacent and not pay attention. You and your surroundings will be safer BASE jumping.

In short: FSD @level 2 is hazardous and useless. I can see the technical demonstration aspect is fun, but that gets old really fast.

If i thas a performance at level 3 , with lets say 15 second warning and handover time, it has a use case - IF it will transport you around in a reasonable effective speed. You can work, draw, watch a movie, eat etc. Level 4 is definetly useful as you might even take a nap.

 

[daktari]

Waymo in Phoenix is 5x10 miles. How long will it take to walk across that area, or drive across? It is not that tiny I would say.

 

[FastEddieC]

It's all good as long as you are informed of whatever your decision will be.

Some people paid FSD since 2016 and at each firmware update, they kept hoping the next one would be so great and that keeps repeating that the next one will be much better for the past 5 years. And even after 5 years with multiple updates, most owners still do not have the FSD beta City Streets despite loud vocal demand.

So, based on Tesla's history, I would not raise my hope for the next 2 years as your goal.

I would classify what you pay FSD for now as L2 (drivers are responsible for a safe drive) for the foreseeable future unless I can see real proof otherwise.

Proof would include: The reliability to avoid crashes the way that Waymo has. If Tesla can attain that single skill of avoiding crashes, I would say $10,000 is worth the price.

But for $10,000 and my car still hits a stationary firetruck, police car, left-turn trucks in front of me... then, I personally, do not think it's worth the price. It should be much cheaper so I can pay for the potential crashes and deaths.

In a consumer world, if I pay for something, I should get a fully functional product, not something that will get better with the next update for the next 5 years and counting with no end in sight.

Thanks, well said. I think I will visit the new sales/service center in Fort Myers today and ask some additional questions about the FSD Subscription.

 

[qdeathstar]

Exactly. So this brings the question of what they were doing between the autonomy day and today. But the reality is probably that it was mostly staged which is why we aren't at Autonomy Day level FSD still.


L4 means you can not watch the road and sit in the back seat and the car will drive itself. L4 means there technically is no reason to ever touch the steering wheel as the car shouldn't ask you to take over.

Are you this guy?

my point is is you are gonna say that because Waymo can drove its little car around by itself in a very limited set of circumstance, they have deployed level four fsd, you must also say the same thing for tesla, if there is vide of it driving by itself in a very limited set of circumstance. Not that a tesla has actually deployed level 4 fsd.

 

[Bladerskb]

my point is is you are gonna say that because Waymo can drove its little car around by itself in a very limited set of circumstance, they have deployed level four fsd, you must also say the same thing for tesla, if there is vide of it driving by itself in a very limited set of circumstance. Not that a tesla has actually deployed level 4 fsd.

So where can I get a ride on this L4 Tesla in the backseat?

 

[qdeathstar]

So where can I get a ride on this L4 Tesla in the backseat?

You can’t. But in a certain specific set of circumstances, a Tesla was able to drive itself. Can i get a ride from a waymo in richmond?


Level 4 deployed loololololl.lo

 

[Bladerskb]

You can’t. But in a certain specific set of circumstances, a Tesla was able to drive itself. Can i get a ride from a waymo in richmond?


Level 4 deployed loololololl.lo

Anyone can get a ride in the backseat of a Waymo by flying to Phoenix which I’m planning on.

where can Anyone get a ride in the backseat of your supposed L4 Tesla?

You tesla fans and your twisted logic. At least make it make sense.

 

[qdeathstar]

Anyone can get a ride in the backseat of a Waymo by flying to Phoenix which I’m planning on.

where can Anyone get a ride in the backseat of your supposed L4 Tesla?

You tesla fans and your twisted logic. At least make it make sense.

Anyone could decide to work for Tesla, get into there fsd development program, and become an fsd validator. Actually you don’t even need to work for Tesla, I believe a few people found out the hard way after turning their car into a tin can vs an 18 wheeler.



anyone can’t get a ride in a Waymo....

 

[BrerBear]

New guy here planning to order an M3 Long Range AWD this week. Looking for some advice regarding ordering the FSD computer at this time for $10,000. Do the knowledgeable folks here recommend buying it now, or waiting until the FSD progresses in the next 2 years? Thank you for your advice.

I recommend waiting unless you are either happy with the current feature set for $10,000 or the money just isn’t a big deal.

I suspect if Tesla rolls something out in the short term it’s going to be a disaster and get pulled back. Even if it ships successfully, do your own calculation on how much you would be paying per self-driving ride and see if that’s worth it to you.

I’m on my second and third Teslas right now, and FSD has been “just around the corner“ since my first one in mid-2016.

 

[qdeathstar]

Tesla has not deployed any L4. FSD Beta is L2. I know it might be confusing. Watching videos, FSD Beta can appear similar to Waymo in some cases. Both are driving certain routes with no disengagements. But (simply put), FSD Beta cannot do all dynamic driving tasks so it is L2. It might be able to do some routes with no disengagements but only because the routes happened to only require the dynamic driving tasks that FSD Beta can do and nothing unexpected happened. And FSD Beta needs a human as fallback in case it encounters a problem. Waymo is designed to do all dynamic driving tasks with no human as fallback which is L4.

Waymo can’t do any driving tasks in Virginia....

 

[qdeathstar]

I recommend waiting unless you are either happy with the current feature set for $10,000 or the money just isn’t a big deal.

I suspect if Tesla rolls something out in the short term it’s going to be a disaster and get pulled back. Even if it ships successfully, do your own calculation on how much you would be paying per self-driving ride and see if that’s worth it to you.

I’m on my second and third Teslas right now, and FSD has been “just around the corner“ since my first one in mid-2016.

What are you basing your feeling on? Nothing?

 

[diplomat33]

Waymo can’t do any driving tasks in Virginia....

Wrong.