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Is Tesla's "End of 2014" Supercharger map possible?

Discussion in 'Model S: Battery & Charging' started by wk057, Jun 3, 2014.

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How many of the remaining chargers will be built by 01-01-2015?

Poll closed Nov 30, 2014.
  1. >= 100%

    8.2%
  2. 75% to 99%

    32.2%
  3. 50% to 74%

    36.1%
  4. 25-49%

    16.9%
  5. < 25%

    6.6%
  1. wk057

    wk057 Senior Tinkerer

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    #1 wk057, Jun 3, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2014
    So, it's been about two weeks since a USA supercharger was opened...

    Looking at a digital comparison between the current map and the "End of 2014" map, highlighting differences, there are 102 supercharges on the "End of 2014" map in the USA (and 12 in Canada) that are not yet open.

    According to supercharge.info, 7 of those are under construction and 9 have permits (and 1 permit in Canada). So, lets assume those 16 will be done, that leaves 86 yet to be done for this year in the USA.

    It is June 3rd, the 154th day of the year... so, not even taking out weekends that leaves 211 days in 2014. With 102 superchargers to open, that is roughly a new opening every other day for the rest of the year, or 3 to 4 per week.

    Now, at the fastest opening rate yet, 23 superchargers were opened in the 31 days of January... at that rate, these 102 are attainable... but that was January... and in the four months that followed, only 21 were opened in total, a rate of about one or two per week. At that rate (the current rate...) the "End of 2014" map is impossible.

    Anyone want to place some votes on how this will pan out? :)

    20140520-difference-to-2014.jpg


    Update 2014-09-03:
    Looks like 17 superchargers have opened out of the 102 that remained unopened when I started this thread. That is 16.6% of the work done using 43.6% of the time available since I started the thread...

    Works out to needing an opening every weekday until the end of the year to finish the 2014 map in 2014. As much as I love Tesla, that's just not going to happen.
     
  2. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    As I recall, last year it seemed as if none were being built and then all of a sudden it was mushroom city. I suspect this year will be the same.
     
  3. Kraken

    Kraken Member

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    Someone said that at the shareholders meeting Elon Mentioned doubling the number of Super Chargers by Years end... that would be consistent with the assumption they would all be finished.
     
  4. Chipper

    Chipper Active Member

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    Let's see...has Elon ever set a date that Tesla has been able to keep? Don't get me wrong. Love the guy! Absolutely LOVE his creations! But setting dates has not been his strongpoint.
     
  5. Kraken

    Kraken Member

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    Definitely agree, I'm just saying the numbers jive
     
  6. Shumdit

    Shumdit Member

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    Agreed on all points. Would love to be wrong about this, but anyone who has following Tesla and Elon would know that he sometimes bites off more than he can chew with dates. Maybe they should see if they can clone Steve Jobs from one of his old toothbrushes. He seemed to be able to get things accomplished that his employees swore could not be done in the timeframe he was giving them!
     
  7. mknox

    mknox Well-Known Member

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    Well, not for Canada. We haven't got a single Supercharger at all. Their "End of 2013" map wasn't even reliable.
     
  8. 100thMonkey

    100thMonkey Member

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    it was painfully slow with the first push and then all of a sudden, boom, it became breathtaking. I suspect the same thing is going to happen again. most of the work is scouting and finding a good location and negotiating a deal. there is a lot happening that we can't see just from the list of permits in the works. If Tesla thought they were way behind, I suspect they'd adjust back the map rather than add locations, like they just did. Honestly, from the bit of work I've done with charging networks in this area, the speed at which Tesla's network is going up is very impressive!
     
  9. wk057

    wk057 Senior Tinkerer

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    Looking at a difference between my snapshots and the new one from today, they just shifted in an additional supercharger in Kansas since one of the actual sites was further west than the original map point, added another additional Kansas point that was never on any map (not even 2015), and added a point in Canada north of Toronto.
     
  10. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    Yeah, but that's all we ever get in Canada! Little dots.
     
  11. wk057

    wk057 Senior Tinkerer

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    Looks like construction finally started on one in Canada! :D

    Also, looks like people seem pretty optimistic. Should be cool to see how this goes. :)
     
  12. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    Note to self: Ensure Canada gets big dots.
     
  13. wk057

    wk057 Senior Tinkerer

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    Looks like 17 superchargers have opened out of the 102 that remained unopened when I started this thread. That is 16.6% of the work done using 43.6% of the time available since I started the thread...

    Works out to needing an opening every weekday until the end of the year to finish the 2014 map in 2014. As much as I love Tesla, that's just not going to happen.
     
  14. invisik

    invisik Member

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    I hate to agree, but I think you're right. Even if half of them were in Permit stage they still probably wouldn't make it. I wish they would have at least gotten a route or two in the big hole in the Midwest connected. Ahh well, they will come in time. Keep watching for map updates, one is bound to come soon for Q4 projections.

    -m
     
  15. mitch672

    mitch672 Active Member

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    They are very far behind in the Northeast. The Sagamore Supercharger on cape cod construction is finished, but now they are waiting on NStar to deliver the transformer... This is the first SuperCharger in Massachusetts.. There are none in New Hampshire, Maine or Vermont, and winter will be upon us in no time, and they will miss another ski season here. But there are several recently opened in... China.
     
  16. swegman

    swegman Member

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    People keep saying that Tesla built a large number of SC's at the end of 2013, and will likely do so again this year. But keep in mind the push last year was to allow Elon to make his trip with his family. We don't have that this year.
     
  17. invisik

    invisik Member

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    Just saw this other thread about Dayton, OH supercharger deployment... Apparently Meijers stores has a good relationship with Tesla. (message #20 http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/31552-Supercharger-Dayton-OH/page2) . Here's hoping maybe we'll have a surprise announcement one day saying X number of Meijers stores are getting superchargers! That would certainly help the schedule.

    I did also review the chart on supercharge.info and last year December/January were big deployment months.. maybe Dec 2014/ Jan 2015 will be similar.....

    -m
     
  18. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    They haven't even started on un-islanding Texas. Very disappointed.
     
  19. Chipper

    Chipper Active Member

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    IDK Jerry, but keeping Texans in their place might not be such a bad thing...:rolleyes:
     
  20. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    Assuming unislanding is going to happen through OKC, the KS Superchargers are kind of progress.
     

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