Is the EV market about to crash? What do you think?

[voyager]

There's a doom & gloom Medium.com article:

The EV Market Turmoil: Unraveling the Crash

In early 2023, the EV market began showing signs of distress, with certain models experiencing significant price drops. This set off alarms…

medium.com

Here's the vid that goes with it:

 

[FOOLSLFDRVNG]

Video sponsored by your local dealership in a cheap smelly suit.

 

[zoomer0056]

There's a doom & gloom Medium.com article:

The EV Market Turmoil: Unraveling the Crash

In early 2023, the EV market began showing signs of distress, with certain models experiencing significant price drops. This set off alarms…

medium.com

Here's the vid that goes with it:

Hmm ... do you have an opinion, what do you think?

 

[OldEVDude]

Back in the 1980's there was an entrepreneur named Adam Osborne. He released a portable computer called the Osborne 1. It was large and heavy, but it was the only game in town and had decent sales. The Osborne started talking about more advanced computers that were still six months to a year away. People decided to wait for the more powerful computers rather than buy the one that was currently available. Sales of the Osborne 1 crashed, and the company went under. This became legendary in the tech community as "the Osborne Effect." It is why when Apple announces a new phone they have it shipping within a month.

Last year, every EV manufacturer announced that they were moving to the Tesla charging standard in 2025, and adapters would be available in 2024. So, if someone were to buy a non-Tesla right now they would be using a dying standard (CCS) on an unreliable charging network. Not surprisingly, such buyers are questioning the wisdom of this, and are choosing to wait until the vehicle they buy can use the charging network that is available and works (NACS). It is the Osborne Effect applied to the EV market.

Ford and GM should have at least the adapters available in 2024 Q1 (according to Tesla). It will be interesting to see if after that GM and Ford EV sales deviate from those vendors who do not yet have NACS adapters available. It will also be interesting to see if non-Tesla EV sales pick up when NACS becomes the built in standard for those vehicles in 2025.

 

[voyager]

Hmm ... do you have an opinion, what do you think?

People buy Teslas that happen to be electric cars.
The tradtional carmakers have more difficulty to make the transition.
It doesn't help that they focus on electric trucks and SUVs.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Back in the 1980's there was an entrepreneur named Adam Osborne. He released a portable computer called the Osborne 1. It was large and heavy, but it was the only game in town and had decent sales. The Osborne started talking about more advanced computers that were still six months to a year away. People decided to wait for the more powerful computers rather than buy the one that was currently available. Sales of the Osborne 1 crashed, and the company went under. This became legendary in the tech community as "the Osborne Effect." It is why when Apple announces a new phone they have it shipping within a month.

Last year, every EV manufacturer announced that they were moving to the Tesla charging standard in 2025, and adapters would be available in 2024. So, if someone were to buy a non-Tesla right now they would be using a dying standard (CCS) on an unreliable charging network. Not surprisingly, such buyers are questioning the wisdom of this, and are choosing to wait until the vehicle they buy can use the charging network that is available and works (NACS). It is the Osborne Effect applied to the EV market.

Ford and GM should have at least the adapters available in 2024 Q1 (according to Tesla). It will be interesting to see if after that GM and Ford EV sales deviate from those vendors who do not yet have NACS adapters available. It will also be interesting to see if non-Tesla EV sales pick up when NACS becomes the built in standard for those vehicles in 2025.

I do wonder why all the legacy EV manufacturers have taken so long to release NACS adapters. I have to assume they are just slow at releasing software updates for their vehicles. Actually building the NACS adapter isn’t hard at all, and there are suppliers just waiting to pump them out (like Volex). I guess my question is, why the slow roll out for NACS adapters? It’s been 6 months since the first announcement.

 

[zoomer0056]

People buy Teslas that happen to be electric cars.

Nope, people buy Teslas because they are the best EVs.

 

[buckets0fun]

I guess my question is, why the slow roll out for NACS adapters?

Tesla.
Tesla needs to open the network for the nacs adapter to work.

Some v3 and some v4 will allow this. No one knows how many. It’s funny to read all the “zomg tesla opening whole supercharger network” without thinking that tesla doesn’t want to hear their customer base crying over long waits or blocked stalls from other companies having incorrectly placed charge ports. (Porsche took the hint and put the Macan charge port in the same location as T)

 

[Cosmacelf]

Tesla.
Tesla needs to open the network for the nacs adapter to work.

Some v3 and some v4 will allow this. No one knows how many. It’s funny to read all the “zomg tesla opening whole supercharger network” without thinking that tesla doesn’t want to hear their customer base crying over long waits or blocked stalls from other companies having incorrectly placed charge ports. (Porsche took the hint and put the Macan charge port in the same location as T)

So Tesla jujitsu’d legacy auto to Osborne their own EVs? Would be hilarious if that’s what happened. Of course, the collateral damage is that stock market sentiment is turning against EVs and Tesla stock price, but that won’t last past mid year. Won’t help my leaps coming due mid year though, sigh.

 

[dakhlkt22]

Although Project Highland was rumored well in advance and Model 3s sold like hotcakes through end of the year. I guess Osborne effect depends on the announced changes?

 

[OldEVDude]

Although Project Highland was rumored well in advance and Model 3s sold like hotcakes through end of the year. I guess Osborne effect depends on the announced changes?

The key is that Tesla didn't announce what was going on with Highland. There is a big difference between rumors and an announcement by the vendor. There are already rumors about the iPhone 16 (nine months before expected announcement), for example. But until the specific features are announced by Apple it is all speculation. Also, Highland is very incremental, as opposed to the rumored "Model 2" which would be revolutionary. No wonder Tesla is keeping mum about the details of the next new car so as to avoid putting the low end Tesla market in stasis.

 

[Unclepaul]

Although Project Highland was rumored well in advance and Model 3s sold like hotcakes through end of the year. I guess Osborne effect depends on the announced changes?

Model 3s sold like hotcakes because people wanted to qualify for the $7.500 Federal Tax Credit that was going away. Tesla also had cars in inventory and was discounting them for immediate delivery.

 

[Unclepaul]

FUD headlines like these are aimed at the EV marketplace. They rarely point out that every year, EVs take a larger market share from the ICE manufacturers. They are fighting for their Corporate lives.

 

[buckets0fun]

FUD headlines like these are aimed at the EV marketplace. They rarely point out that every year, EVs take a larger market share from the ICE manufacturers. They are fighting for their Corporate lives.

EVs at sub 5% market share has legacy manufacturers are “fighting for their lives”?

Interesting. Seems as though some companies sell more of one model than all EVs made by tesla. (F series trucks, 750k units sold in 2023)

 

[thyname]

Typical website that sells you gold, ammunition, and dry food for your underground bunker

 

[Zer0t]

Rate of growth is slowing. This the market has taken a significant hit. Not watching that video by the way. However this time last year a base model s was 96 grand and now it’s 74. The model X is down about 30 grand. Other manufacturers are offering monster incentives. A Mercedes Eqs 450 4matic has more than 14 grand off MSRP and a big Amex platinum discount with a code.

The fact that Tesla has cut their MSRP so significantly has left no choice but to offer large incentives. I’ll lease my next EV given the rate of change in the tech and the price volatility. They also depreciate faster in general.

 

[Skavatar]

Tesla has only been around for a small fraction of time(16yrs) compared to the other big companies (70-100yrs).

 

[gsmith123]

Market collapse? Lol, no that's not how these things work.

The ICE vehicle market isn't going to collapse (in the short term), either by the way. EV market share has been steadily growing for the last ten years (I think exponentially, but not 100% sure).

To "crash" not only would growth need to stop but a whole bunch a companies would need to dramatically cut production. Tesla's not going to do that. Demand would have to drop dramatically for Tesla to not have positive unit margins (i.e. they make money on each car, so they want to sell as many as possible).

What would be the catalyst for that? EVs are getting better. More critically in some ways, charging infrastructure is also getting better each day (especially with a bunch of non-Tesla's getting SC network access soon in north america).

Margins may come down. Some companies are not doing so well (looking at you Lucid...) and some are potentially struggling a lot with margins on their EVs (how's Ford doing with the Mach-E lately?), even otherwise decent products. So in some areas we may see cutting production or at least reducing growth.

 

[Zer0t]

@gsmith123 non-EV only makers have scaled back significantly. They have reduced investments in new factories and co-investments with battery manufacturers. The market does not grow exponentially but incrementally And the rate of growth shrunk significantly.

Loss of incentives and interest rates have contributed (incentives mostly).

 

[gsmith123]

Shrinking growth rate isn't a market collapse

The market does not grow exponentially but incrementally

I'm not sure what you specifically by "incrementally" - did you mean "linearly"?

Regardless, I disagree. EV adoption absolutely can grow exponentially. See Norway, for instance.

Or take a look at how smartphone adoption has progressed to see what a zero to 100% (ish) growth S curve looks like.