Is the EV market about to crash? What do you think?

[Zer0t]

Shrinking growth rate isn't a market collapse



I'm not sure what you specifically by "incrementally" - did you mean "linearly"?

Regardless, I disagree. EV adoption absolutely can grow exponentially. See Norway, for instance.

Or take a look at how smartphone adoption has progressed to see what a zero to 100% (ish) growth S curve looks like.

View attachment 1008682

Where is 2022 and 2023? 2024 projections?

I didn’t say market collapse, I said the rate of growth is slowing.

How Electric Vehicles Are Losing Steam With U.S. Buyers, in Charts

EV sales began to stall in the latter half of this year, a move that car executives attributed to electric models’ relatively high prices.

www.wsj.com

Electric Car Sales Growth Slows in US as Inventory Builds Up

Electric vehicle sales growth, while still brisk, has begun to slow in the US as inventory of battery-powered models piles up on dealer lots.

www.bloomberg.com

Electric Vehicles Look Poised for Slower Sales Growth This Year

BloombergNEF is forecasting about 13.6 million deliveries, up from more than 10 million in 2022.

www.bloomberg.com

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-joins-gm-ford-slowing-ev-factory-ramp-demand-fears-spread-2023-10-19/

EV usage is surging in Norway, and the electric grid 'isn't collapsing': New York Times

Norway could be a testing ground for how electric vehicles can be sustained and maintained, says a New York Times report.

www.marketwatch.com

Your chart is Norway which has heavy EV adoption.

 

[ewoodrick]

There's a doom & gloom Medium.com article:

The EV Market Turmoil: Unraveling the Crash

In early 2023, the EV market began showing signs of distress, with certain models experiencing significant price drops. This set off alarms…

medium.com

Here's the vid that goes with it:

Not watching it, but what about the picture tells you that it is a trustworthy source?

To me it sounds like a YouTube click sucker.

 

[ewoodrick]

It's amazing how as you sell more and more that growth always shrinks.

It's a basic math problem

 

[jjrandorin]

There's a doom & gloom Medium.com article:

The EV Market Turmoil: Unraveling the Crash

In early 2023, the EV market began showing signs of distress, with certain models experiencing significant price drops. This set off alarms…

medium.com

Here's the vid that goes with it:

There is a zero chance I would read the article or watch the video, as I am not at all interested in hit pieces (even though thats what most things seem to be, at this time, on multiple topics).

With that out of the way, as far as my own opinion on the thread title (which for reference is "Is the Ev market about to crash? What do you think?" my answer is " no, I dont, its nothing like NFTs or cryptocurrency, its an actual real product, with real benefits for lots of people. Its not going anywhere."

 

[Xenoilphobe]

Typical website that sells you gold, ammunition, and dry food for your underground bunker

Wow all the stuff I need in one place. Now I will go read that article, no I won't its behind a paywall, also there is no advertising, I couldn't find ammo, gold or dry food for sale, just membership sales, I was excited there for a minute, but quickly lost interest.

 

[gsmith123]

I didn’t say market collapse, I said the rate of growth is slowing.

I was responding to the overall thread title: "Is the EV market about to crash?" (clearly it is not). I don't disagree with you on this point, growth rate probably will slow down.

It's amazing how as you sell more and more that growth always shrinks.

This. The growth rate drops as you progress up the adoption S curve. At about 50% EV adoption the growth rate declines (roughly speaking)

 

[jabloomf1230]

There's a doom & gloom Medium.com article:

The EV Market Turmoil: Unraveling the Crash

In early 2023, the EV market began showing signs of distress, with certain models experiencing significant price drops. This set off alarms…

medium.com

Here's the vid that goes with it:

Crash? It's (cough, cough) more likely to catch fire. Seriously, the market is trending towards Tesla making BEVs and the legacy car companies making PHEVs. Good for Tesla, but bad for the planet.

 

[buckets0fun]

Crash? It's (cough, cough) more likely to catch fire. Seriously, the market is trending towards Tesla making BEVs and the legacy car companies making PHEVs. Good for Tesla, but bad for the planet.

Mmm fire. Jaguar I-pace fire a few days ago in Colorado?

 

[thyname]

Wow all the stuff I need in one place.

I am in Fairfax Co. too. I can give you a personal tour of all the fun stores in the area. And best shooting ranges a NRA membership can buy

 

[cwerdna]

Tesla has only been around for a small fraction of time(16yrs) compared to the other big companies (70-100yrs).

Tesla was founded in 2003. It's mentioned at https://www.tesla.com/elon-musk.

Haven't seen the video and have only skimmed the parts of the piece in the OP w/o a Medium account.

I don't know if the OP is asking about globally or about specific market (e.g. China, Europe, US, Japan, specific countries/regions, rest of world, etc.)

We do have a poll at Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll", for which I answered after 2040 and still stand by it.

 

[Wattsisname]

Would be hilarious if that’s what happened.

Would it really!?!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Would it really!?!

Obviously I've got a warped sense of humor.

 

[Skavatar]

Tesla was founded in 2003. It's mentioned at https://www.tesla.com/elon-musk.

sorry, should have said Tesla only been selling cars for 16 yrs when the Roadster went into production in 2008.

 

[evo9rs]

definitely don't think the EV market is going to collapse. however, electricity prices are such that charging at home ($0.34/kw) is the equivalent of driving a 39mpg car ($5.00/gallon). of course there is so much little maintenance required for an EV etc but when it comes to getting people to switch, the primary objection is centered on charging as a bigger interruption to their day than gassing a car up. while I doubt that is the case for an EV used to commute for typical round trip distances, the problem remains that non-Tesla charge networks are awful. and people's doubts about being able to charge up reliably aren't crazy (for a non-Tesla EV).

so PGE rates are effectively stalling EV adoption (hypothesis, not fact) bc you can go get a Prius from 15 years ago and effectively have a similar energy cost, high(ER?) reliability, low maintenance cost, with no range anxiety - people might not be crazy for buying a cheap ass hybrid and waiting for the world to go to a single EV charge standard.

but for you people with the $0.10/kw rates, I don't know why you would't switch. oh I know why, the non-Tesla charge networks are horrible. Elon and his advisors figured out the importance of this a long time ago. which leads us back to why people might not be crazy for buying a cheap ass hybrid and waiting for the world to go to a single EV charge standard.

which can further be refined to this: for BEVs, it's Tesla, or don't do it. so for the the other brands of EVs - legacy automakers can scale back, and delay. it's quite possible that new brands collapse, and their demise would be quicker than the legacy automakers, which sucks. legacy automakers will delay by continuing to make ICE vehicles and hope for permission from Tesla to use their network.

 

[Cosmacelf]

definitely don't think the EV market is going to collapse. however, electricity prices are such that charging at home ($0.34/kw) is the equivalent of driving a 39mpg car ($5.00/gallon). of course there is so much little maintenance required for an EV etc but when it comes to getting people to switch, the primary objection is centered on charging as a bigger interruption to their day than gassing a car up. while I doubt that is the case for an EV used to commute for typical round trip distances, the problem remains that non-Tesla charge networks are awful. and people's doubts about being able to charge up reliably aren't crazy (for a non-Tesla EV).

so PGE rates are effectively stalling EV adoption (hypothesis, not fact) bc you can go get a Prius from 15 years ago and effectively have a similar energy cost, high(ER?) reliability, low maintenance cost, with no range anxiety - people might not be crazy for buying a cheap ass hybrid and waiting for the world to go to a single EV charge standard.

but for you people with the $0.10/kw rates, I don't know why you would't switch. oh I know why, the non-Tesla charge networks are horrible. Elon and his advisors figured out the importance of this a long time ago. which leads us back to why people might not be crazy for buying a cheap ass hybrid and waiting for the world to go to a single EV charge standard.

which can further be refined to this: for BEVs, it's Tesla, or don't do it. so for the the other brands of EVs - legacy automakers can scale back, and delay. it's quite possible that new brands collapse, and their demise would be quicker than the legacy automakers, which sucks. legacy automakers will delay by continuing to make ICE vehicles and hope for permission from Tesla to use their network.

You can’t get TOU rates?

 

[Unclepaul]

In So Cal, Edison gives a special lower (26¢) TOU rate for EV owners. Both Electricity and Gasoline are more expensive here than in other states.

Don't know about all the competitors that do not offer SuperCharging or convenient and reliable charging systems of their own, but just looking at Tesla, they continue to grow nicely while legacy ICE manufacturers are struggling.

A big issue in the US is the lack of profitability for legacy manufacturers forced to pay ever increasing Union demanded wages and fringe benefits. The non-union US producers seem to remain nicely profitable.

 

[Skavatar]

might be a factor why they implemented Point of Sale this year to give the legacy dealers a cushion on EV losses

 

[evo9rs]

You can’t get TOU rates?

lol (at myself), that IS my most favorable TOU rate. I'm in the Bay Area.

 

[Cosmacelf]

lol (at myself), that IS my most favorable TOU rate. I'm in the Bay Area.

That sucks.

 

[zoomer0056]

That sucks.

Cheap gas and electric in most states except CA, NY and probably HI.