Kim Komando staff article-very pessimistic in nature

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Well, I see speculation, but no analysis unfortunately. I guess if Tesla managed to somehow deliver half a million cars with some of the problems the X had, sure... But how?

Shoot, they've already fixed a bunch of problems with the X, and they've only made ~3k so far? Not that they don't have problems they still need to resolve, but extrapolating that Tesla will crank out half a million Model 3s with substantial problems they didn't fix because they've had problems with brand new models in limited production isn't realistic.

 

[Red Sage]

It will be interesting to see how many "casual fans" there are out of the 400,000 and how many will hold on past production delays and/or the requirement to confirm "highly optioned". Same for those who don't get the $7,500 tax credit. Perhaps a poll at some point speculating retention rate is in order?

My guess is that less than 10% will drop out, and that Tesla Motors is prepared for as many as 20% to do so. Production delays, if any, would likely be due to supplier issues, and Customers would be aware if including certain options might make their build take longer. I don't believe there will be a 'requirement' to max out cars at all. It will simply be encouraged to decrease The WAIT. If Tesla Motors had intended to start Production at 100,000 units per year or less, this huge backlog means they'll have to start at a higher rate. Cancellations would probably be welcome if they don't expect to exceed 200,000 units as a build rate within 18 months. Besides, I strongly believe that anyone that does drop out will certainly be replaced by someone else after the Model ☰ Reveal Part II. So, I don't worry about it.

 

[Red Sage]

Well, I see speculation, but no analysis unfortunately.

So... Where's your analysis? I'm sure we'd all love to peruse it in great detail. If I may speculate? It must be fascinating and informative.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

So... Where's your analysis? I'm sure we'd all love to peruse it in great detail. If I may speculate? It must be fascinating and informative.

It's the comic, which is more or less that extrapolating about some system without looking at the particulars can lead to some, um.... interesting conclusions.

 

[Red Sage]

It's the comic, which is more or less that extrapolating about some system without looking at the particulars can lead to some, um.... interesting conclusions.

Fascinating...

 

[M0DEL³]

lets be honest here, if they do anything close to anything like the model X deliverys there will be plenty of people canceling their orders.

I would put myself in that group. I have several friends with S or X's. While they are very impressive vehicles, none of them have experienced the build quality or reliability from their Tesla's that I have with my last 5 Toyota's. But Tesla is visionary, so I too stood in line on the 31st --- but with a planned "Out Option": One of my friends (also a line stander) lives in Gilroy (about 40 miles from the Fremont Factory), our best guess is that he should see his Model3 at least 6 months before I will. When he takes delivery I'll make a trip to go check it out. The Fit & Finish of his car along with his (and my) overall initial experiences will determine if I take delivery or not. While I want (and hope) that the M3 is everything it needs to be, I'm totally prepared to walk away if it isn't.... Based on the myriad issues seen with the X to date, as of today, I consider it a coin toss.... Think of it this way: If I should bail, some of you will get yours an itsy bit sooner.

 

[gregd]

I would put myself in that group. I have several friends with S or X's. While they are very impressive vehicles, none of them have experienced the build quality or reliability from their Tesla's that I have with my last 5 Toyota's. But Tesla is visionary, so I too stood in line on the 31st --- but with a planned "Out Option": One of my friends (also a line stander) lives in Gilroy (about 40 miles from the Fremont Factory), our best guess is that he should see his Model3 at least 6 months before I will. When he takes delivery I'll make a trip to go check it out. The Fit & Finish of his car along with his (and my) overall initial experiences will determine if I take delivery or not. While I want (and hope) that the M3 is everything it needs to be, I'm totally prepared to walk away if it isn't.... Based on the myriad issues seen with the X to date, as of today, I consider it a coin toss.... Think of it this way: If I should bail, some of you will get yours an itsy bit sooner.

If your turn to commit to the car comes sooner than his actual delivery (e.g. the order-to-delivery is longer than 6 months in your example), your back-out plan won't work...

 

[Luke42]

These people will be VERY unforgiving and thus the press will be very unforgiving if Tesla continues to have actual or perceived reliability problems.

Those of us coming from Toyotas and Hondas are a tough crowd. We're a much tougher crowd than luxury car buyers, judging by the sub-Toyota reliability ratings I see on luxury cars.

We are less likely to have spare cars laying around[0], and we haven't needed them. We depend on this one car to get to work, every day without fail, and our bosses don't take excuses.

I've owned many kinds of cars, some with luxury features, and some without -- but the most luxurious one is the one which I can trust to start on every 0 degree morning.

In the past, I've favored mass market cars over entry level luxury cars because they're *very* well engineered, with the costs amortized over many more units. In my opinion, mass market cars are better engineered than luxury cars, even though most people can't see it -- because these cars are optimized for their role as transportation appliances.

So, yeah, the Model 3 is going in front of a tough crowd. Much tougher than the early adopter crowd or the luxury car buyer crowd. We've become accustomed to vehicles which run for years on end minimal maintenence, and depend on them for our livliehood.

I'm personally not all that impressed by a lack of hard plastics in the interior, or whiz-bang features. The air suspension, the Model S door handles, the Model X robot doors, and the Model X's enormous windhsield are all features which detract from the value of the car to me, because those will be expensive to maintain after the warranty expires.

Yes, I intend to own our Model 3 and/or keep it in the family beyond 8 years and 100k miles. I don't know what the warranty period will be, but I'll be involved with this car long past the warranty period.

I really like what Tesla is doing and I'm really looking forward to my Model 3. But, its primary function will be as my sole commuter car, and a car which spends a lot of time in the shop is not the right tool for the purpose. The point is to get off of gasoline. The performance, the looks, the interior are merely nice-to-haves.

[0] I like cars, and would probably have a interesting $5k weekend beater as plaything, if we had the driveway space. Buying a bigger house to park cars isn't a

 

[Red Sage]

Those of us coming from Toyotas and Hondas are a tough crowd. We're a much tougher crowd than luxury car buyers, judging by the sub-Toyota reliability ratings I see on luxury cars.

We are less likely to have spare cars laying around[0], and we haven't needed them. We depend on this one car to get to work, every day without fail, and our bosses don't take excuses.

I've owned many kinds of cars, some with luxury features, and some without -- but the most luxurious one is the one which I can trust to start on every 0 degree morning.

In the past, I've favored mass market cars over entry level luxury cars because they're *very* well engineered, with the costs amortized over many more units. In my opinion, mass market cars are better engineered than luxury cars, even though most people can't see it -- because these cars are optimized for their role as transportation appliances.

Yet, it seems the Tesla Model ☰ is destined to move you to an 'entry level luxury' vehicle as a new purchase anyway. I understand your point, though I don't think of cars as 'transportation appliances', mostly because I am rather practical and don't enjoy the notion of a car being what I call a 'rolling spare parts conveyance'. Designed to fall apart and provide the service department of an 'independent franchised dealership' with years of work beyond warranty. It is not at all unreasonable to expect a car to just WORK.

I was sort of vaguely considering picking up a Mercedes-Benz CLS-Class as a used car (because I find it a stunningly beautiful car), until I discovered the pure awesomeness of the Tesla Model S. But when it comes to the traditional automobile manufacturers, there is no way I would have justified a NEW purchase of their 'luxury' cars, because the value they represent is not apparent to me at all. I'd much rather have a top-of-the-line Toyota Camry or Honda Accord than the entry level BMW 320i or AUDI A4. The Tesla Model ☰ will compel me to move up-market for the first time, because I have ALWAYS wanted a fully electric car.

 

[glenhurst]

I would put myself in that group. I have several friends with S or X's. While they are very impressive vehicles, none of them have experienced the build quality or reliability from their Tesla's that I have with my last 5 Toyota's. But Tesla is visionary, so I too stood in line on the 31st --- but with a planned "Out Option": One of my friends (also a line stander) lives in Gilroy (about 40 miles from the Fremont Factory), our best guess is that he should see his Model3 at least 6 months before I will. When he takes delivery I'll make a trip to go check it out. The Fit & Finish of his car along with his (and my) overall initial experiences will determine if I take delivery or not. While I want (and hope) that the M3 is everything it needs to be, I'm totally prepared to walk away if it isn't.... Based on the myriad issues seen with the X to date, as of today, I consider it a coin toss.... Think of it this way: If I should bail, some of you will get yours an itsy bit sooner.

If you decide to walk away from the M3, will you buy another car instead? If so, which one? IOW, what is your backup plan if the M3 doesn't work for you?

 

[M0DEL³]

If you decide to walk away from the M3, will you buy another car instead? If so, which one? IOW, what is your backup plan if the M3 doesn't work for you?

An excellent question: I am committed to an EV for my next vehicle, if the Model3 should fail to be that option then the choice will be more difficult. The one data-point I'm fairly sure of is that the EV landscape will be different by mid-2018 (when I expect this to some to become a real issue) than it is today. My fantasy would be to see Toyota get off the hydrogen dead-end and make a real attempt at a modern EV. In the meantime, I guess if the M3 should fail the sniff-test on build quality, I would have to sit down and take a serious look at the other offerings available at that time. Am seriously hoping I'm not forced into ever having to do that.

 

[M0DEL³]

If your turn to commit to the car comes sooner than his actual delivery (e.g. the order-to-delivery is longer than 6 months in your example), your back-out plan won't work...

This is true, but - I think, not very likely. Elon does many amazing things, but hitting release dates isn't one of them. I'm pretty comfortable that as a non-previous owner living in the Midwest, my previous-owner friend living in Elon's backyard will have no problem queuing at least 6 months (probably a year or more) ahead of me. If push came to shove, reservations do allow for sliding back in the queue. My feeling is that if I have no additional quality information prior to being asked to use the design studio, I'd take the slide. This might be different if I had a local SC, but the closest one is 200 miles away, so reliability and build quality are significance amplified for me.

 

[Red Sage]

...I guess if the M3 should fail the sniff-test on build quality, I would have to sit down and take a serious look at the other offerings available at that time.

Uhm, what do you mean by this, exactly? What would constitute 'failure' in your mind? What vehicles currently meet your criteria, as a point of reference?

 

[M0DEL³]

Uhm, what do you mean by this, exactly? What would constitute 'failure' in your mind? What vehicles currently meet your criteria, as a point of reference?

A fair question... My last 5 vehicles have all been Toyotas: A Prius, Tundra, Camry, Corolla, & a Tercel. All these vehicles have had excellent fit & finish, tight assembly, and excellent service histories. My 11 year old Prius has required zero maintenance other than tires & wipers, Oil, coolant changes, and one 12V battery. The Tundra is now 7 years old and has never seen the shop at all as I have done my own routine maintenance. Of the 5 vehicles, only the Tercel has ever had a service maintenance issue (problem with AC coolant leak). Toyota sets an extremely high bar, when I compare my experiences to what I've personally seen from local Teslas (sloppy seam bonding, poor panel fit, inconsistent paint finish) and than some of the experiences posted here, there's pretty much no comparison. That being said.... I do not expect Tesla to produce at a Toyota quality level, but as I stated earlier, I'm 200 miles from a SC, and have concerns about the service histories I've seen from local Tesla owners. (Averaging 5 SC interventions/car so far). If I had a local SC, that would be much less of an issue, but as it stands, I consider it a valid concern. I'll be honest if Toyota manufactured a 200+ mile range EV I would not be in the market for a Tesla.... but they don't.... and so I am... but not blindly.

I have a friend in Gilroy, CA who should be receiving his M3 well ahead of my likely commit date. The current thinking is I will make a trip out to take a look at his car when it is received. That process will determine if I finalize my order or not. Obviously such a process is somewhat subjective, but many aspects of a quality build are readily noticeable: If panels look like some of the MX pics I've seen here, or the car is a rattlecage, doors don't open/close with smooth authority, etc, etc.... I will take a pass and keep waiting for someone to get it right. As I've said several times now.... I hope this is not the case, and am encouraged that Elon has stated that he intends to get build quality improved. My order will depend upon that follow-thru.

 

[deonb]

I would put myself in that group. I have several friends with S or X's. While they are very impressive vehicles, none of them have experienced the build quality or reliability from their Tesla's that I have with my last 5 Toyota's.

Yeah, ok, but I also have a family circle where we owned over a dozen BMW's and Merc's over the years - and none of them get to the build quality & reliability of a Toyota either. Toyota appears to be Mil Spec compared to our last 2 BMW's !

BUT - you don't put a Toyota through nearly the kind of stresses than you would a high performance rear wheel drive car that can pull nearly 1G.

Now I would hope Tesla can get their reliability up to BMW/Merc/Audi level. It is probably pretty close with the latest Model S's. If you have a Model 3 with a VIN greater than 100'000, it will be as well. But it will never be at Toyota level.

 

[JeffK]

Tesla does try to practice kaizen so in theory we should see greater quality with the model 3 than any model before it... (minus a few bumps up front)

 

[Red Sage]

A fair question... My last 5 vehicles have all been Toyotas: A Prius, Tundra, Camry, Corolla, & a Tercel. All these vehicles have had excellent fit & finish, tight assembly, and excellent service histories.

All right, cool. I'm good with that perspective. Perhaps a bit more forgiving than you might be, but certainly understanding. You want a car with a significantly better build quality than a 1987 Chevrolet Cavalier or 1984 Chrysler LeBaron. I can't say as I blame you, as those were rattletraps even when they were brand new.

I was afraid you might mean something else entirely by the phrase 'build quality'. I have had seriously long discussions over the past couple of years with those who feel the term equates to perceived equivalents of 'luxury' instead. I can guarantee you that the Model ☰ will not exude the type of 'luxury' interior experience one might expect from a Lexus or Cadillac.

Most cars are built pretty well these days, so the line basically has moved to the point where what would have been acceptable two decades ago is now barely acceptable, or even substandard. And that which would have been spectacular one decade ago is now simply 'OK'. I expect the Model ☰ will definitely be OK by my own measure. I hope it will be for you as well.

 

[Red Sage]

If you have a Model 3 with a VIN greater than 100'000, it will be as well. But it will never be at Toyota level.

Well, the Toyota Corolla is the best selling passenger vehicle of all time, the reigning best selling car in the world, and is on its Eleventh generational version. So, Toyota has had a lot of practice with it, and the car has basically been 'perfect' since its Seventh or Eighth generation, defining the segment. Heck, the entire Saturn division at GM was developed with the Corolla as its intended target for quality.
Toyota Corolla - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I don't really care if Tesla Motors achieves Lexus level 'quality'. But I expect that within eight years of its release, the Model ☰ will have come through the equivalent of multiple generations of build improvements. So that by the time its official second generation arrives, it will be the standard in and of itself, that other manufacturers take aim at.

 

[N5329K]

Build quality:
Things must work as intended (no workarounds needed).
Performance must be as advertised.
Things must not be so flimsy as to break when called upon to work.
No rattles.
No wind noise through faulty seals or misaligned glazing.
No stains.
No tears.
No smells other than new car.
No gaps that don't belong there.
No leaks in the rain.
Mind you, I have just disqualified nearly every British car ever made, and I do love (some of) them, but that's a pretty good list for starters. For me, anyway.
Also, my Toyota-made Prius V rattles terribly!
Robin

 

[Roamer]

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