Kim Komando staff article-very pessimistic in nature

[jchau]

I keep seeing people say this but it makes no sense. If a $35,000 car is a stretch based off income, there's no way you're getting the tax credit.

People may not be banking on the full tax credit, but 25K (full fed tax + CA refund) looks alot more appealing than 35K. I have a good job and can afford the car without extra savings, but 10K discount is 10K discount. You add the possible years of waiting for them to deliver close to base model cars to the public and....

 

[xmetal]

Here's my sequence of thoughts when seeing this topic:

1. Who is Kim Komando?
2. Isn't that a disney character?
3. Why would a cartoon comment on Tesla?
4. I better Wiki this
5. OOOOHHHHH, she's an antique radio host
6. That explains why I've never heard of her
7. <dismiss>

 

[TTBHG]

People may not be banking on the full tax credit, but 25K (full fed tax + CA refund) looks alot more appealing than 35K. I have a good job and can afford the car without extra savings, but 10K discount is 10K discount. You add the possible years of waiting for them to deliver close to base model cars to the public and....

I don't disagree that "if" you're able to use the tax credit it is an amazing deal on the car. I think people just hear tax credit and assume they're getting a $7500 rebate check from the government after their car is delivered.

In reality, IMO, the majority of people buying this car probably won't see very much of the tax credit because they simply don't have that much tax liability at the end of the year.

 

[reddy]

I'm thinking that Tesla's tax credits will be phasing out by the time most buyers even get the car. That's why being early in the reservation process was key.

 

[Canuck]

Tesla can be late with the Model 3, and have quality problems, and it can still survive and even dominate years down the line. It's not like they will be packing up shop if these things happen and the demand for their product will not dry up either. They will work through it and people don't expect perfection -- just look at the ICE market as the prime example. They make most of their money in servicing their vehicles and not in sales. BMW had to provide free service because of the problems they had with reliability. Yet their sales continued to grow and they didn't shut down. To expect no delays or problems is wishful thinking -- to suggest it will be their demise is foolish thinking, at least in my opinion.

 

[Pdub2015]

Jeez, all this bs M3 speculation is so wearisome! But it's a proven traffic generator so everyone from the NY Times to no name bloggers are going to beat this poor, dead horse until something better comes along. Thanks to those who saved me from having to ingest another crappy article.

 

[zenmaster]

I'm not saying all cars absolutely must be delivered in the order they were reserved (taking into account geo location), just that if when the midwest starts getting cars before any $35-$40K models have shipped on the west coast it will look bad.

Honest question: Since such a large percentage of orders were taken together on the first day, who outside Tesla is even able to determine reservation ordering? Also, it will look bad if first-day reservations from other regions are unable to place a timely order after production begins.

 

[TaoJones]

I keep seeing people say this but it makes no sense. If a $35,000 car is a stretch based off income, there's no way you're getting the tax credit.

Love it. Given that half the US population pays ZERO federal tax (hence a tax credit does them about as much good as a financial advisor - er, oops), one does wonder about some of the handwringing. Better yet is that I'll bet a plugged nickel that a lot of the AM-radio-esque kvetching that occurs *comes from* this population segment in the first place.

Anyhoo, I'm not clicking through the above link because it is quite obviously clickbait with exactly NO new information whatsoever. Much like Kim Komando's failing radio show itself.

 

[Scannerman]

I keep seeing people say this but it makes no sense. If a $35,000 car is a stretch based off income, there's no way you're getting the tax credit.

It seems as tho, many of you are ignoring the fact that, one can take advantage of the IRS incentive indirectly, even if one has no tax liability, by leasing. In that case the $7,500 goes to Tesla, and your lease payments are adjusted accordingly.

Scannerman

 

[Krugerrand]

She has a point. Tesla is doomed If Tesla can't find a way to keep cost down and deliver the M3 on or ahead of schedule. The tree hugger will hold out for the M3 but the average buyer is not going to wait three years for a car. The excitement for the casual fan is already wearing off. I need a car in the next year or so and I simply can't hold out if delivery is delayed.

So the truth of the matter is that you don't actually want a Model 3 - a 4-door sedan, fully electric, 200+ miles of real world range etc., etc., etc., etc... You just want a car to replace your current vehicle when its time is done in a year. Because if you really wanted an EV like the Model 3 you'd simply look at leasing an interim car, buying a used one to hold you over etc...

 

[182RG]

Because if you really wanted an EV like the Model 3 you'd simply look at leasing an interim car, buying a used one to hold you over etc...

The use of the term "casual fan" is very accurate in his post. It will be interesting to see how many "casual fans" there are out of the 400,000 and how many will hold on past production delays and/or the requirement to confirm "highly optioned". Same for those who don't get the $7,500 tax credit. Perhaps a poll at some point speculating retention rate is in order? Lots of people on the bandwagon, which is good for Tesla. It added a $1,000 a head interest free cash investment to the coffers.

I'm expecting 2019-2020 on the east coast, and I want options. I'll simply keep driving my '13 Touareg TDI until then.

 

[DFibRL8R]

She has a point. Tesla is doomed If Tesla can't find a way to keep cost down and deliver the M3 on or ahead of schedule. The tree hugger will hold out for the M3 but the average buyer is not going to wait three years for a car. The excitement for the casual fan is already wearing off. I need a car in the next year or so and I simply can't hold out if delivery is delayed.

I was in a similar position when I reserved my Model S in 2011, didn't get it until 2013. I certainly was not a Tesla fan boy then, I simply liked what I saw and was willing to wait. I had never driven a BEV. I didn't start to drift towards fan boy until I owned the car. Has it had issues, sure, but I was willing to accept a few trips for service in exchange for driving the greatest car ever built. Just because the price point is lower doesn't mean people won't be willing to accept similar trade-offs as early adopters of a new model and (most likely) an entirely new (performance EV) driving experience which I believe is addicting. How many Tesla owners go back to purchase another ICE? Some will cancel/bail just as occurred with Model S and Model X but short of a major misstep by Tesla I don't see this part of the Musk evil plan failing.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

I was in a similar position when I reserved my Model S in 2011, didn't get it until 2013. I certainly was not a Tesla fan boy then, I simply liked what I saw and was willing to wait. I had never driven a BEV. I didn't start to drift towards fan boy until I owned the car. Has it had issues, sure, but I was willing to accept a few trips for service in exchange for driving the greatest car ever built. Just because the price point is lower doesn't mean people won't be willing to accept similar trade-offs as early adopters of a new model and (most likely) an entirely new (performance EV) driving experience which I believe is addicting. How many Tesla owners go back to purchase another ICE? Some will cancel/bail just as occurred with Model S and Model X but short of a major misstep by Tesla I don't see this part of the Musk evil plan failing.

Perhaps too intrusive of a question ....but was the price quoted in 2011 inflated by the time 2013 you got the car?
Im assuming when you ordered the car- you agreed to certain options and that set the price. Or, were the options priced at FMV on the date of delivery?

 

[artsci]

This is nothing new. The gloom and doom prophecies for Tesla have existed from day 1. Last night I watched again "Revenge of the Electric Car." In the film the head clowns from Jalopnik and the Daily Wag were making such predictions on camera for all to see and history to record. Did they ever turn out to be wrong. In fact with the benefit of time and perspective their comments make them look like total fools.

 

[DFibRL8R]

Perhaps too intrusive of a question ....but was the price quoted in 2011 inflated by the time 2013 you got the car?
Im assuming when you ordered the car- you agreed to certain options and that set the price. Or, were the options priced at FMV on the date of delivery?

Not intrusive at all. The first time I ever heard about Model S was a CNNMoney article online in Nov 2, 2011. I read that and put my $5,000 deposit in the very next day. Taking a look back now, the predictions/promises in that article in terms of pricing and delivery (and what the car would do) were very accurate although the "320 mile range" was an overstatement, the 160 mile range for the 40 was pretty close. The 57k amount was for the 40kWh not including the $7,500 tax credit I believe. When I configured which ended up being a painfully long 4.5 months before delivery (the first 60's weren't produced until late January 2013), the price of options was set and did not change once I had finalized my order. Not only that but I got upgraded to include supercharging for free since the terms of pricing on that option weren't announced until after I had finalized my order For me, Tesla has always made things right in the end and in many cases gone beyond what they had to do even if their initial trajectory seemed to deviate from time to time. I would expect that corporate philosophy will continue with the Model 3 (which is why I reserved one of those, this time before even the benefit of seeing a prototype).

Inside the Tesla Model S - Big moves (1) - CNNMoney

"The first cars off Tesla's California assembly line will be high-end Signature Series cars with an advertised 320 mile range on a full charge and a sticker price around $80,000. However, the base Model S will start at about $57,000 and will go about 160 miles on a charge.

The first year's production is already spoken for, CEO Elon Musk said, but that's only expected to be about 5,000 cars. Tesla is now taking orders for the second year's production, which is planned to be around 20,000 cars"

 

[GoTslaGo]

This is nothing new. The gloom and doom prophecies for Tesla have existed from day 1. Last night I watched again "Revenge of the Electric Car." In the film the head clowns from Jalopnik and the Daily Wag were making such predictions on camera for all to see and history to record. Did they ever turn out to be wrong. In fact with the benefit of time and perspective their comments make them look like total fools.

On YouTube?

 

[Red Sage]

Tesla's long list of blunders goes on and on - is it doomed? | Komando.com

Article depressing in nature. Obviously, all of us in the Tesla Motors Club do not agree.

Yeah... I'm not reading that.

 

[kzod]

All the naysayers have a valid point. MANY, MANY reservations will be cancelled. The car will be late, no $35k cars will be built for a long time, and the initial ones will be much more expensive than many are hoping. But, it won't make a difference in the long term since they will sell every car they can build, and as the first cars start coming out, more orders will continue to pour in.

 

[Red Sage]

All the naysayers have a valid point. MANY, MANY reservations will be cancelled. The car will be late, no $35k cars will be built for a long time, and the initial ones will be much more expensive than many are hoping. But, it won't make a difference in the long term since they will sell every car they can build, and as the first cars start coming out, more orders will continue to pour in.

Correct. A valid point that it is easily and readily dismissed. Oh, wait...

 

[Red Sage]

Taking a look back now, the predictions/promises in that article in terms of pricing and delivery (and what the car would do) were very accurate although the "320 mile range" was an overstatement, the 160 mile range for the 40 was pretty close.

Well, originally Elon Musk used the phrase 'at 55 MPH' when referring to the 320 mile range... And that very soon diminished to 300 miles instead. The numbers ended up going down because they had designed the cars with the EPA 2-Cycle test in mind... It turned out they were classified finally under a 5-Cycle range test instead. In the end, the EPA results were about 88%-to-90% of the mark they had hoped for as a result. Though if someone is interested in hypermiling, each of the cars blows away their EPA range.

It seems that most would rather Elon only quote 'Real World' range, but can't decide what that means exactly. I sort of get the impression it would be the distance one could travel using a battery pack that started at 90% and was depleted to 20%, while exceeding the posted limit by roughly 15-to-25 MPH... Naysayers in particular want to drive like that and cover no less than 350 miles, when traveling up a 6% grade in sub-zero temperatures through hub deep snow at 90 MPH, with a 50 MPH headwind.

The eternal struggle:

• Drive It Like a Hippie Tree Hugger
• Drive It Like You Stole It
• Drive It Like the EPA