Kuiper Constellation Discussion (ULA, BO, Ariane, and other Launchers)

[scaesare]

Was the commentator for that ULA or Amazon?

They specifically called out passing the Karman line... seems to be a bit of an obsession for Jeffrey's rocket endeavors...

 

[JB47394]

They specifically called out passing the Karman line...

Nice catch. It had to be Amazon. Nobody in the orbital business calls out the Karman line.

 

[ecarfan]

Nice catch. It had to be Amazon. Nobody in the orbital business calls out the Karman line.

Yes that was really weird. It’s an Atlas V going to orbit. Making a point of saying that the vehicle and payload passed above the Kerman line is like an Uber driver announcing to their passenger that they have achieved the highway speed limit.

 

[Mike1080i]

Was the commentator for that ULA or Amazon?

They specifically called out passing the Karman line... seems to be a bit of an obsession for Jeffrey's rocket endeavors...

It was ULA's Rob Gagnon. I've never heard him make that call before. It had to be something Amazon asked to have added.

 

[JB47394]

It was ULA's Rob Gagnon. I've never heard him make that call before. It had to be something Amazon asked to have added.

Or it was a quiet dig on Blue Origin. As someone observed, Amazon got to orbit before Blue Origin did.

 

[scaesare]

Or it was a quiet dig on Blue Origin. As someone observed, Amazon got to orbit before Blue Origin did.

Hmmm.. but since BO has also paassed the Karman line, for Amazon to highlight passing it isn't really dig it would seem. Now maybe they also made a big deal about reaching orbit, but I didn't hear anything in my admittedly distracted playing of the video.

Is Jefrey a fan of his companied being rivals? I kinda would have thought, given his seemingly thin skin, that Amazon poking fun at BO not reaching orbit yet would not go over well...

 

[scaesare]

So Berger's article on the Atlas V launch for Amazon pointed out something I hadn't noticed about their Kuiper sats:

Amazon is keeping quiet about the details of the Kuiper satellites. The company did not release any photos of the spacecraft, or even any artist's illustrations, before the Protoflight launch Friday. SpaceX and OneWeb published imagery of their broadband satellites before they launched into space.

Amazon has not revealed much about the design of its Kuiper satellites other than that they are three-dimensional in shape, not flat-packed for launch like SpaceX's Starlink broadband satellites. Each Kuiper spacecraft likely weighs a few hundred kilograms at launch, so a dedicated Atlas V launch into low-Earth orbit for just two of Amazon's satellites is a bit of overkill.

and

To add another layer of secrecy to this launch, ULA's live broadcast Friday ended after separation of the Atlas V's first stage from the Centaur upper stage about five minutes after liftoff. This was at the request of Amazon, the ULA spokesperson said.

This policy of cutting off live coverage before the rocket reaches orbit is similar to what ULA does during launches of US government spy satellites. In those cases, the government's spy satellite agency requests the launch provider to end the public webcast shortly after liftoff, similar to what Amazon has asked for Friday's launch.

An Amazon spokesperson did not respond to questions from Ars about why the company is not releasing imagery of its Kuiper satellites, or why it asked ULA to end launch coverage so soon after liftoff.

I wonder why....


Also. these 2 says are called prototypes, and:

The first batch of production satellites is on track for launch in the first half of 2024, presumably on an Atlas V rocket, with beta testing commencing by the end of 2024.

So production service not until 2025 at the earliest most likely?

 

[JB47394]

Hmmm.. but since BO has also paassed the Karman line, for Amazon to highlight passing it isn't really dig it would seem.

I don't mean to belabor this, but I wanted to clarify. The payload was Amazon's. The rocket was ULA's, as was the announcer. The dig, if any, was from ULA. It's like Dave boasting that he rode his bike to the street corner, followed by you riding your bike to the grocery store and calling out "Made it to the street corner!" as you continue for another couple miles to get to the grocery store. That callout could be a friendly affirmation of Dave's achievement or it could be dismissive of such a minor accomplishment.

Regardless, I think we all agree it was a weird callout.

So production service not until 2025 at the earliest most likely?

The FCC deadline is to loft half of the satellites by July 2026. If they start in June 2024 ("first half of 2024"), that gives them 25 months. Spread half of the planned 83 launches across 25 months and you get a launch every 18 days.

I saw mention that Amazon needs 578 satellites (18%) on orbit before they could provide service. So 18% of 83 launches at 18 days per launch gets you nine months of launches. So if they launch at full cadence starting June 2024, they would be operational in March 2025.

There are some massive handwaves in there, including the fact that none of their planned launch vehicles are flying, which is why they may rely on the Atlas V for a while. ULA says that it can sustain a roughly 14 day launch cadence with Atlas V.

If Amazon relies entirely on Atlas V for 83 launches, the cost would be around $1.5 billion. Falcon 9 is a bit over a third of that. Perhaps Amazon will get a volume discount from ULA.

 

[scaesare]

I don't mean to belabor this, but I wanted to clarify. The payload was Amazon's. The rocket was ULA's, as was the announcer. The dig, if any, was from ULA. It's like Dave boasting that he rode his bike to the street corner, followed by you riding your bike to the grocery store and calling out "Made it to the street corner!" as you continue for another couple miles to get to the grocery store. That callout could be a friendly affirmation of Dave's achievement or it could be dismissive of such a minor accomplishment.

Regardless, I think we all agree it was a weird callout.

Ah good point... the commentator being a ULA dude may have been having a bit of fun at Jeffrey's expense...

The FCC deadline is to loft half of the satellites by July 2026. If they start in June 2024 ("first half of 2024"), that gives them 25 months. Spread half of the planned 83 launches across 25 months and you get a launch every 18 days.

I saw mention that Amazon needs 578 satellites (18%) on orbit before they could provide service. So 18% of 83 launches at 18 days per launch gets you nine months of launches. So if they launch at full cadence starting June 2024, they would be operational in March 2025.

There are some massive handwaves in there, including the fact that none of their planned launch vehicles are flying, which is why they may rely on the Atlas V for a while. ULA says that it can sustain a roughly 14 day launch cadence with Atlas V.

If Amazon relies entirely on Atlas V for 83 launches, the cost would be around $1.5 billion. Falcon 9 is a bit over a third of that. Perhaps Amazon will get a volume discount from ULA.

Thanks for the math

Sooo.. using the Atlas V... the launch that just happened used an RD-180... and I think that the handful they have left are largely already spoken for in customer launches they have slated... including nine Kuiper launches... right? So I think you are right that they will be using Atlas V for a bit, but it seems that was the plan for a while, but given that 8 more launches is only another 16 sats (?) I think they have to move on.

Although I think the planned replacement is the Vulcan Centaur. which replies on.... BO's BE-4... so that's also iffy from a timing perspective...

 

[JB47394]

given that 8 more launches is only another 16 sats

Nah. They lofted two because that's all they needed for the test. Atlas V can loft as much as 19 tons ($153 million in 2016). At 700kg per satellite, that's 27 satellites per launch (over $5 million each).

Assuming all that, eight more launches would put up 216 satellites. Another 13 launches and they're operational.

 

[scaesare]

Nah. They lofted two because that's all they needed for the test. Atlas V can loft as much as 19 tons ($153 million in 2016). At 700kg per satellite, that's 27 satellites per launch (over $5 million each).

Assuming all that, eight more launches would put up 216 satellites. Another 13 launches and they're operational.

Right you are... that Berger article I referenced above did indeed say: "a dedicated Atlas V launch into low-Earth orbit for just two of Amazon's satellites is a bit of overkill."

OK, so not at weight limit, but that article did also say "Amazon has not revealed much about the design of its Kuiper satellites other than that they are three-dimensional in shape, not flat-packed for launch like SpaceX's Starlink broadband satellites."

I wonder what the volume limit may be.... unfortunately, Amazon doesn't want to let us see them to gauge size...

 

[scaesare]

Ran across this page for updates on Amazon's Kuiper test mission:

The latest updates from Project Kuiper’s satellite test mission

Looks like all has gone well thus far, which is cool.

 

[scaesare]

So, we haven't heard much about the two Kuiper test birds.. it appears that have laser ISL's:

Amazon boosts its satellite internet network with the help of space lasers

Project Kuiper plans to create a mesh network of high-speed laser cross-links.

www.engadget.com