Letter to Mr. Musk from a 1-day old outdated Model S owner

[larmor]

So, what exactly did Tesla do wrong that would require such actions? Who exactly did Tesla "dupe"? Prior to the yesterday's announcement did anyone think they were duped? or only after?

This is the Tesla innovation cycle, 2-3 months. This is Agile product development. Yes, your car may be top dog for only a few months, upgrades are 4x faster than an annual iPhone upgrade. Everyone loves it unless you're on the wrong side of one of those 2-3 months.

April/May - Facelift
June - 60kw
August - P100
October - Tesla Vision

What to expect in the future that people will similarly complain about:

New Packs 2170 cells (this is coming, everyone should know this)
P110/P120 See above
Tesla Glass, augmented HUD
Upgraded MCU (desperately needed)
Quad Motors w/Torque Vectoring
Magnetorheological sport suspension
and eventually, AP3.0
plus so much more....

This is likely to continue until Elon decides to step down to focus solely on SpaceX.

Or even upcoming wireless energy transfer by photon teleportation....

 

[MP3Mike]

Must have missed that. That really sucks. I'm just one data point, but I definitely would have paid 3 K for the convenience features but I will definitely not be paying 8 K for full autonomy.

But you have the option for $5k for the new Enhanced AP.

They are sort of "extorting" money out of people by putting something as "basic" as TACC in a $5k package. (Since I suspect TACC is the most used feature of the package.)

 

[Skipdd]

I've said this for the last few months... Don't buy a Tesla ... Lease it. The technology is moving so fast that in a few years you're going to want to upgrade anyway. I bought my Model S July 2015 and I've already missed out on many desirable features besides Autopilot 2.0. Deal with it... It's part of living in the future now.

+1. Within the first day of having my car, I realized it was a drivable computer. Remember Moore's law - that's the right paradigm for this technology. I leased..

 

[Merrill]

So with this kind of advancing technology you can never keep up with the latest and greatest which could be obsolete tomorrow. My 3 year old model s has none of the new tech that is on my model x, should I buy a new Tesla every 6 months. Both cars are fantastic and I enjoy them both and will keep them for a long time, if you do not want to deal with that then lease the car.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

You asked a good question. What would I do?

One possibility is to equate a million dollars or 2 towards rebates for those who got duped in the last 30 days.
A cheaper possibility is a swap out for those who received their vehicles in the last 30 days.
Maybe even cheaper is an $8000 voucher for each delivery in the last 30 days.
An even cheaper thing would be a statement of sympathy to those who received their vehicles in the last 30 days.

Neither of these would tank Tesla. Any gesture would be great. That's just off the cuff.

Based on last quarter's deliveries, Tesla is now averaging about 2000 cars/week, or between 8500 and 8600 cars/month. With 2 Million set aside for rebates, that's about $234/car ($2,000,000 divided by 8550 cars). $234?

An 8k voucher for 8550 cars would be north of $68 Million in future liabilities.

Your 30 day proposal would also majorly anger people people in the 31+ days or similarly close group.

Look, the situation with the 2.0 AP sucks, but your proposals are frankly not much better: an insultingly low "rebate", a very expensive credit, or another "deadline" that will anger a different group of people who lose out.

Elon has personally stated that he is grateful to all Model S and X buyers for helping to get Model 3 to market.

What more does Tesla have to do? Apple doesn't issue statements of sympathy to people who bought an iPhone 6S the week before iPhone 7 shipped.

 

[mhan00]

I know this is not happening but it would be nice to offer the whole system as a package (cameras, sensors, b pillars, side badges) and let any owner who wants them deal with it themselves or let the authorized collision centers deal with it. Is anything actually tied/integrated to more complicated parts of the car like motor and battery? Or is it pure additional sensors and cameras compared to AP1?

I am sure there people who are up for the challenge, be the owners themselves or auto shops.

The infamous WK057 added AP to his wife's Tesla using parts from salvaged Model S's, iirc. If a person has the know how to do it themselves, I'm sure they can. It just won't be easy, and I wouldn't blame Tesla for not wanting to supply parts for it since most people would probably lack the skills to do it correctly and would either destroy their car or endanger themselves or others trying.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Look, you are not running these numbers. An 8K discount for everyone who purchased in the last 30 days is > $52 million dollars. That's certainly not 'even cheaper' than a "million or 2 towards rebates.'

When Tesla is building 500K cars a year, what you propose would be > $328 million cost. It's totally unsustainable.

This isn't about kindness, it's about reality.

That's true. I didn't add up the numbers. As I said...it was just off the top of my head.

 

[immolated]

So you're essentially begging for tesla to give you free money for no reason.

(1) return vehicles with < 1K miles and refund the full money
(2) give them a "credit" for trade-in (e.g. $10K) to account for the devaluation that just happened
(3) even better option:
- offer the NVIDIA/compute upgrade for all AP1.0 cars
- optionally include the tri-camera h/w upgrade

1) Car's depreciate as soon as they roll off the lot and become classified as "used". This would cost Tesla >$10k in losses per customer.
2) This would cost Tesla $10k in losses per customer
3) Elon has already said that a retrofit would be cost prohibitive, more than the cost of buying a new car. Elon Musk on Twitter
So if some actually offered that retrofit, it would easily cost >$20k or more. Unless you want Tesla to subsidise that as well (what do you think is reasonable, like a $5k cost to upgrade?), in which case it would again be losing >$10k per customer.

Multiply these >$10k losses by 500,000 or however many AP drivers Tesla will have in the next few years and you have a $5 billion loss to a new growing company that is investing heavily in R&D, new production and market integration.

Too many people without MBA or economic backgrounds spamming these entitled "give me free stuff!" posts, it saddens me

 

[Garlan Garner]

Based on last quarter's deliveries, Tesla is now averaging about 2000 cars/week, or between 8500 and 8600 cars/month. With 2 Million set aside for rebates, that's about $234/car ($2,000,000 divided by 8550 cars). $234?

An 8k voucher for 8550 cars would be north of $68 Million in future liabilities.

Your 30 day proposal would also majorly anger people people in the 31+ days or similarly close group.

Look, the situation with the 2.0 AP sucks, but your proposals are frankly not much better: an insultingly low "rebate", a very expensive credit, or another "deadline" that will anger a different group of people who lose out.

Elon has personally stated that he is grateful to all Model S and X buyers for helping to get Model 3 to market.

What more does Tesla have to do? Apple doesn't issue statements of sympathy to people who bought an iPhone 6S the week before iPhone 7 shipped.

Ok ok.. Your numbers are correct. They shouldn't take that suggestion.

Maybe they should just do nothing then. I don't know.

 

[Garlan Garner]

So you're essentially begging for tesla to give you free money for no reason.



1) Car's depreciate as soon as they roll off the lot and become classified as "used". This would cost Tesla >$10k in losses per customer.
2) This would cost Tesla $10k in losses per customer
3) Elon has already said that a retrofit would be cost prohibitive, more than the cost of buying a new car. Elon Musk on Twitter
So if some actually offered that retrofit, it would easily cost >$20k or more. Unless you want Tesla to subsidise that as well (what do you think is reasonable, like a $5k cost to upgrade?), in which case it would again be losing >$10k per customer.

Multiply these >$10k losses by 500,000 or however many AP drivers Tesla will have in the next few years and you have a $5 billion loss to a new growing company that is investing heavily in R&D, new production and market integration.

Too many people without MBA or economic backgrounds spamming these entitled "give me free stuff!" posts, it saddens me

It saddens you? really? (no reason) -You don't understand the "why" of it?

MBA's and degrees don't constitute intelligence.

 

[mjab]

Here's the sting in it. I took delivery of a P90DL in late July this year. When I talked to my OA and then DS, about puling the triigger, they told me after the facelift, nothing was going to change for awhile. Admittedly i should have done more research on AP2, but my DS also told me that it would an upgradable option, so not to worry. My mistake for trusting an employee.
So I pulled the trigger. Weeks later when P100D was announced, It didn't upset me at all. The bump in range would be great, but performance-wise the P90DL is more than amazing, I didn't care about the tenths. What troubles me about my non-retrofitable 100K+ car is that I'm off the train. Its not about keeping up with the Jones's or having the top model, it was about being on the ride towards the future, and feeling that excitment of what would be next. Sadly now, since the CPU in the car has significantly changed and my hardware is no longer being installed, the priority will naturally shift to the newer hardware set. Innovation will be targeted at the new platform and rightly so.
Its just hard to reconcile that a car purchased 4 months ago, that was at the top of the line, at a price 3x any car I had previously purchased, will not partcipate in that revolution. I'm not mad at Telsa, I'm long on the stock and thank Elon and the Tesla team for the revolution they started. I just miss my front row seat. I guess I'll get used to my seat in the back. Its an amazing car to drive, even if it won't be driving me!

 

[Gig103]

And then from the date of the announcement NOBODY would be buying Teslas till they knew they were ordering one with AP 2.0. Lol

I disagree with your superlative - when BMW announces a new 5 series, the old one continues to sell.

 

[malcolm]

I disagree with your superlative - when BMW announces a new 5 series, the old one continues to sell.

Because everyone knows that BMW et al aren't innovating on anything like the same level as Tesla.

Last year's 5 series is just this year's minus a few tweaks.

The I series is good, but it could be even greater. It isn't because BMW don't need it to be.

Tesla, on the other hand, needs the S, X and 3 to punch above their weight.

And occasionally a customer gets caught with a left.

 

[David_Cary]

You know there is one area to be disappointed at here that is different from all the rest. AP 1.0 is not going to get better. Or it isn't going to get better as fast as when it was still being produced. And it was always promised to be better.

(Disclosure - I have a AP1.0 - May 15).

I paid for AP. It took 5 months to have something turned on. It still is very limited and nowhere near what was planned. All this talk of it getting better and we are 1 year in and it is marginally better. I have 7.1 still but in my area, I still dive for exit lanes and take them sometimes. I use it frequently but it isn't that great and I really expected it to be better by now.

1 year of on the road development and from my vantage point - no real progress.

Do I expect it to get significantly better? - not really.

Do I expect the trajectory of 2.0 to be any better? No. For all the angst, 2.0 will be worse for 6 months, marginally better for a year, and then truly better. But not nearly as good as you think it will be.

Cameras plus 40 times the processing power will not allow level 5. I'm pretty sure it will not allow the nag on the steering wheel to go away. And for that, you are paying a lot of money for.

I would have a hard time buying today. $5k for something that will require hands on wheel? $3k as a loan to Tesla for something that they do not have the ability to deliver for several years?

The time to buy is 2018. Maybe that $8k will be worth something. Tesla is starting to option cars like they work the stock market. People believe that in the future, things will be really good (like profits). And they put their money where their mouths are. $3k for full autonomy is a huge leap of faith.

 

[malcolm]

The countdown to autonomy is in the hands of the legislature rather than the engineers.

Tesla-time will soon be replaced by lawyer-time.

Imagine my joy.

 

[BimmerSI]

All this is called progress and development. WIth no discount policy Tesla did something non other car company could. That has huge impact on sale. Yes, new BMW 5 series has been anounced like 6 monts before sale, which means you can now buy current model for like 35%-40% discount. I bought new 5 series last year for 30% discount! Of course it is good for me as customer, but I think it is not good for car industry.

If Tesla would anounce tech updates in advance, specialy huge ones, that would not affect long term sale in a good way.

Just my 5 cents.

Thanx!

 

[davidc18]

Unfortunately Tesla employees don't know anything more than the general public and they are not in any position to predict what Tesla will or won't do in the future. When I purchased the 70D, we paid for AP and were told it would be activated within a few weeks. That turned into 5-6 months. It was our first lesson in Tesla time.

Here's the sting in it. I took delivery of a P90DL in late July this year. When I talked to my OA and then DS, about puling the triigger, they told me after the facelift, nothing was going to change for awhile. Admittedly i should have done more research on AP2, but my DS also told me that it would an upgradable option, so not to worry. My mistake for trusting an employee.
So I pulled the trigger. Weeks later when P100D was announced, It didn't upset me at all. The bump in range would be great, but performance-wise the P90DL is more than amazing, I didn't care about the tenths. What troubles me about my non-retrofitable 100K+ car is that I'm off the train. Its not about keeping up with the Jones's or having the top model, it was about being on the ride towards the future, and feeling that excitment of what would be next. Sadly now, since the CPU in the car has significantly changed and my hardware is no longer being installed, the priority will naturally shift to the newer hardware set. Innovation will be targeted at the new platform and rightly so.
Its just hard to reconcile that a car purchased 4 months ago, that was at the top of the line, at a price 3x any car I had previously purchased, will not partcipate in that revolution. I'm not mad at Telsa, I'm long on the stock and thank Elon and the Tesla team for the revolution they started. I just miss my front row seat. I guess I'll get used to my seat in the back. Its an amazing car to drive, even if it won't be driving me!

 

[Garlan Garner]

All this is called progress and development. WIth no discount policy Tesla did something non other car company could. That has huge impact on sale. Yes, new BMW 5 series has been anounced like 6 monts before sale, which means you can now buy current model for like 35%-40% discount. I bought new 5 series last year for 30% discount! Of course it is good for me as customer, but I think it is not good for car industry.

If Tesla would anounce tech updates in advance, specialy huge ones, that would not affect long term sale in a good way.

Just my 5 cents.

Thanx!

Absolutely. There is an option that I didn't think about. Make the announcement and lower the price of the current model until the next one comes out. Its been proven that sales won't diminish.
It would be much more ethnical than tricking folks when they request the latest and greatest technology.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Unfortunately Tesla employees don't know anything more than the general public and they are not in any position to predict what Tesla will or won't do in the future. When I purchased the 70D, we paid for AP and were told it would be activated within a few weeks. That turned into 5-6 months. It was our first lesson in Tesla time.

I have to disagree with that. Telsa employees can sell and explain the new AP the day after its release. They had to have had "some" kind of training a week or a month ago.

 

[davidc18]

The next 12-24 months will be very interesting to watch as AP 2.0 rolls out. I can envision that at the end of 24 months, Tesla will have turned on all of the new advanced features, the cars are L5 capable, and the NAGGING will still demand hands on wheels at all times. The irony is that lawyers will demand hands on wheel at all times in what will (potentially) be the safest car on the road.

You know there is one area to be disappointed at here that is different from all the rest. AP 1.0 is not going to get better. Or it isn't going to get better as fast as when it was still being produced. And it was always promised to be better.

(Disclosure - I have a AP1.0 - May 15).

I paid for AP. It took 5 months to have something turned on. It still is very limited and nowhere near what was planned. All this talk of it getting better and we are 1 year in and it is marginally better. I have 7.1 still but in my area, I still dive for exit lanes and take them sometimes. I use it frequently but it isn't that great and I really expected it to be better by now.

1 year of on the road development and from my vantage point - no real progress.

Do I expect it to get significantly better? - not really.

Do I expect the trajectory of 2.0 to be any better? No. For all the angst, 2.0 will be worse for 6 months, marginally better for a year, and then truly better. But not nearly as good as you think it will be.

Cameras plus 40 times the processing power will not allow level 5. I'm pretty sure it will not allow the nag on the steering wheel to go away. And for that, you are paying a lot of money for.

I would have a hard time buying today. $5k for something that will require hands on wheel? $3k as a loan to Tesla for something that they do not have the ability to deliver for several years?

The time to buy is 2018. Maybe that $8k will be worth something. Tesla is starting to option cars like they work the stock market. People believe that in the future, things will be really good (like profits). And they put their money where their mouths are. $3k for full autonomy is a huge leap of faith.