You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
People aren’t being testing unless they have to go to hospital. My sister had the initial symptoms but they wouldn’t test her as she didn’t need to be admitted to hospital.I don't understand the data - are we being lied to?
United Kingdom Coronavirus: 6,650 Cases and 335 Deaths - Worldometer
(interesting site with worldwide data clearly graphed)
data authenticity backed up by PHE:
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
as of today 23rd March 6650 cases with 355 deaths.
Now I am not attempting to discuss overal mortality as the data is not available but
355/6650 = 5.3%
Also there is no definition of "cases" (other than it includes recoveries) - is this anybody who has tested positive - in which case how much testing is being done - or is it just hospital admissions?
There is a problem with the headline figures though
355 are dead today, but they will have been ill some time ago. Even if we take the best/worse case scenario of 7 days in hospital before your exit door is chosen for you, this means that we should be looking at the number of "cases" from a week ago ... which was 1543
so 355 deaths from 1543 cases is 23% mortality if you are admitted to hospital
Now if the time in hospital is shorter then the figures improve somewhat, but if longer eg 2 weeks then they are even worse. And if the "cases" include more than just tohse admitted then it is worse again.
I am trusting that somebody smarter than me can put me right on this, otherwise please excuse me while I am quietly panicking inside.
People aren’t being testing unless they have to go to hospital. My sister had the initial symptoms but they wouldn’t test her as she didn’t need to be admitted to hospital.
... so 355 deaths from 1543 cases is 23% mortality if you are admitted to hospital
I don't understand the data - are we being lied to?
United Kingdom Coronavirus: 6,650 Cases and 335 Deaths - Worldometer
(interesting site with worldwide data clearly graphed)
data authenticity backed up by PHE:
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
as of today 23rd March 6650 cases with 355 deaths.
Now I am not attempting to discuss overal mortality as the data is not available but
355/6650 = 5.3%
Also there is no definition of "cases" (other than it includes recoveries) - is this anybody who has tested positive - in which case how much testing is being done - or is it just hospital admissions?
There is a problem with the headline figures though
355 are dead today, but they will have been ill some time ago. Even if we take the best/worse case scenario of 7 days in hospital before your exit door is chosen for you, this means that we should be looking at the number of "cases" from a week ago ... which was 1543
so 355 deaths from 1543 cases is 23% mortality if you are admitted to hospital
Now if the time in hospital is shorter then the figures improve somewhat, but if longer eg 2 weeks then they are even worse. And if the "cases" include more than just tohse admitted then it is worse again.
I am trusting that somebody smarter than me can put me right on this, otherwise please excuse me while I am quietly panicking inside.
It's scary stuff. Also the folk who caught it in crowded public areas may have a very high viral load - breath in droplets from 5 people, and your body has a lot less time to respond. May explain why London seemingly has many younger patients also.Sobering observation of the day from a colleague, an Infectious Disease Consultant. Everyone will know someone who dies from this.
No community testing at all. Our cases are therefore a VAST underestimate. Average time from illness to admission is 5 days and time from ITU admission to death is also 5 days. High Blood Pressure, Diabetes and Cerebrovascular Diseases are highest predictors of mortality. Having all three and COVID, on admission (so by definition sick), gives a 50% mortality. 2/3 of those diseases are directly associated with age so difficult to pick the stats apart.
I wonder if it would not have been safer to be able to stay abroad and shelter at your current homeAnd no one will be attending SC's?
I have to go to Edinburgh airport on Saturday to pick up my daughter who's arriving from Australia. I'm just wondering if I have to clear it with Police Scotland first. If she took the train or bus or even a taxi she would be risking more people that just me and my wife.
My son has just returned from Denmark (uni exchange) via a protracted route today.
Almost got arrested in Oslo and was officially deported from Bergen!!
so we are all isolating for a couple of weeks when she arrives.
Strange times
Thanks so much for your work. It's an awful situation and we are going to ask a lot from a medical workforce these coming weeks. Totally agree about the lock down needing to come much sooner. Instead it was very mixed messaging.40% of our consultant staff is currently in self isolation, we did a Zoom call yesterday with everyone and even though 2 of them tested negative they looked awful, both are under 40 and very very healthy normally.
The swab test for COVID19 has a 25% false negative rate, which means it doesnt pick up 25% of cases, not quite a useless test but not far off.
Currently the EastMidlands isnt that effected, but already we have 1 ward fully of COVID patients.
I'm currently awake at 3am because I've only just managed to settle our daughter to sleep, she has started to develop a cough and runny nose tonight.
Am due to see 4 patients who are at risk of the infection face to face tomorrow, which I'm going to cancel and move to telephone consultation. But if I do develop symptoms and need self isolate we will be down to 50% consultant stuff already, with the real impact of the virus on work load still weeks away.
We all have to do our bit to keep this virus in check and the NHS standing. The lockdown should have started weeks ago, and even now keeping schools open just keeps the virus circulating.
Hopefully as a country we can all do our bit and stop the spread of COVID, the pictures of totallay over run Italian and Spanish hospitals is not what we want to see in the UK .